Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed economic outlook, with rising gold prices and declining consumer and production metrics, indicating potential challenges in various sectors of the economy [2][31]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to approximately 3%, down 3.59 points from the previous week, primarily due to a holiday effect impacting real estate transactions and vehicle sales [2][10]. - Subway passenger transport growth turned negative, with a 3% year-on-year decline in 27 cities compared to a 3.8% increase in September [3][14]. - The sales of commercial residential properties have seen a significant decline, with a 27% year-on-year drop in transaction area as of October 18, compared to a 1.2% decline in September [4][16]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have turned negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 7% as of October 12, contrasting with a 6% increase in September [16]. - The growth rate of express delivery volume has slowed to 1.7% year-on-year in the first two weeks of October, down from 12% in the previous month [4][16]. - Prices of pork and eggs have dropped significantly, with pork prices down 3.9% and egg prices down 4.4% [5][31]. Group 3: Production and Infrastructure - Infrastructure activity has noticeably declined, with the operating rate of asphalt plants at 35.8%, down 4.3% from pre-holiday levels [4][19]. - The apparent consumption of rebar has decreased by 18% year-on-year as of October 17, indicating weaker demand in construction [19][24]. - Industrial production metrics show a decline in coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port, with a year-on-year increase of only 6% as of October 17, down from 19% in September [19][24]. Group 4: Trade and Exports - Port container throughput has decreased by 6.1% week-on-week as of October 12, with cumulative year-on-year growth dropping to 5.3% [26][27]. - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. has significantly declined, with a year-on-year drop of 34.8% in mid-October [27]. - Export demand remains stable, with shipping rates for European routes showing a rebound, while North American routes also see price increases [26][27]. Group 5: Price Trends - Gold prices have surged to $4,304 per ounce, marking a 6.2% increase, while oil prices have continued to decline [31][36]. - The average listing price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities has decreased by 0.3% as of October 6, with a cumulative decline of 3.1% this year [38][40]. - The price index for industrial silicon futures has decreased by 1%, while polysilicon futures have increased by 6.3% [31][40]. Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are reported at 1.4434%, 1.5899%, and 1.8246%, with slight fluctuations compared to the previous week [54][53]. - The government plans to issue new local government debt limits for 2026, with a focus on supporting major strategic projects [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward indicators in various sectors, including consumer behavior, production, and trade dynamics, while also addressing the impact of external factors such as tariffs and commodity prices [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Durable goods consumption shows a recovery in retail sales of passenger cars, with a year-on-year growth of 6% in September compared to 3% in August [2][15]. - The OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, indicating a continued recovery in external demand [3][24]. - The macroeconomic activity index from Huachuang Securities declined to 6.26% as of October 5, down from 6.65% the previous week [3][9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline, with a 33% year-on-year drop in residential property sales in 67 cities during the first ten days of October, compared to a 1.2% decline in September [3][15]. - Non-durable goods consumption growth has slowed, with express delivery volume growth dropping to 4.5% as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous month [3][15]. - Service consumption, particularly subway ridership, has turned negative, with a 4.8% decline in the first ten days of October compared to a 3.8% increase in September [3][13]. Group 3: Production and Trade - The apparent consumption of rebar remains weaker than the previous year, with a 10% year-on-year decline as of October 9 [3][17]. - The OECD leading indicator for external demand continues to rise, suggesting potential improvements in trade dynamics, although direct trade with the U.S. is showing signs of decline [3][24]. - The prices of gold and copper have increased, with gold reaching $3986.2 per ounce (up 2.7%) and copper at $10,765 per ton (up 1.9%) [4][38]. Group 4: Policy and Financial Environment - Long-term bond yields have decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8206%, down 3.99 basis points from September 30 [5][57]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations indicate an escalation in tariff tensions, with a proposed 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1 [4][26]. - New policy measures are being implemented to support various industries, particularly in the non-ferrous sector, with recommendations for price adjustments to alleviate industry losses [4][22].

Economic Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 6% year-on-year in September, up from 3% in August[2] - OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, compared to 100.42 in August[2] - Gold price increased by 2.7% to $3986.2 per ounce, while copper price rose by 1.9% to $10,765 per ton[2] Real Estate and Construction - Real estate transactions in 67 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 33% in early October, worsening from a 1.2% decline in September[2] - The average consumption of rebar was down 10% year-on-year as of October 9, compared to a 12% decline in the previous four weeks[3] - The land premium rate was at 4.83% as of October 5, up from 2.91% in September[13] Consumer Behavior - Subway passenger volume in 27 cities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year in early October, down from a 3.8% increase in September[3] - Express delivery volume growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous four weeks[3] Trade and External Demand - G7 OECD leading indicators suggest a recovery in external demand, with a rise to 100.49 in September[24] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. fell by 19.7% year-on-year as of October 11, compared to a 3.4% increase the previous week[31] Price Trends - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude at $58.9 per barrel, down 3.3%, and Brent crude at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.8%[3] - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with vegetable prices down 1.2% and pork prices down 2.8%[46]

Travel Insights - During the National Day holiday, inter-regional passenger flow increased by 5.3% year-on-year, slower than the 7.9% growth during the May Day holiday[2] - Air travel and railway growth rates were below 4%, while waterway and outbound travel saw higher growth, with waterway passenger transport up by 8.7%[12] Retail Performance - Retail sales for key enterprises grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the first four days of the holiday, indicating potential pressure on October's retail sales[3] - Home appliances and green food consumption achieved double-digit growth, with green organic food sales up by 20.1%[18] Price Trends - Food prices remained stable, while some regions saw a decline in liquor prices; for instance, the average price of movie tickets dropped nearly 8% year-on-year[4] - Airfare prices increased by 9.2% compared to the previous year, while hotel prices varied significantly between first-tier and lower-tier cities[24] Movie Industry - Box office revenue for the National Day holiday was down 19.2% year-on-year, potentially due to scheduling issues with popular films released in the preceding months[26] Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macroeconomic activity index was at 6.65% as of September 28, showing a decline of 2.12 percentage points from the previous week[28] - The manufacturing PMI remained above the growth line at 50.8%, indicating resilience in external demand[38]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index rose to 8.78% as of September 21, up 1.23 percentage points from the previous week, driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][9]. - High-frequency data for infrastructure shows a recovery, with asphalt plant operating rates at 40.1%, up 11.1% year-on-year and 5.7% week-on-week [2][20]. - The port container throughput remains high, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.4%, although it has slightly decreased from the previous week's 10.9% [2][26]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a weekly year-on-year increase of 9% in the third week of September, but the cumulative monthly growth remains low at 0.7% [3][15]. - The sales of residential properties maintained positive growth but showed a marginal slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in the first 26 days of September compared to 15% in the previous two weeks [3][15]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 2.8% in the first three weeks of September, down from 3.61% in August [3][15]. Group 3: Production and Industry - The construction sector has seen a recovery in high-frequency data, with both asphalt and cement dispatch rates improving compared to last year [2][20]. - Industrial production indicators show a year-on-year increase of 23.4% in coal throughput at Qinhuangdao Port as of September 28, compared to 8.2% in August [20]. - The steel industry has introduced a growth stabilization plan, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% over the next two years, with strict controls on new capacity [25][21]. Group 4: Trade and Tariffs - The S&P manufacturing PMI for major economies (US and Europe) fell to 49.2 in September, down from 50.2 in August, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [26]. - The US announced new tariffs effective October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 30% tariff on imported furniture, which may impact related industries [28]. Group 5: Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased to $3734.2 per ounce, up 1.3%, while oil prices also saw significant gains, with WTI crude at $65.7 per barrel, up 4.9% [2][39]. - The domestic coal price at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 701 yuan per ton, down 0.4%, while the price of cement increased by 2.5% [40][42]. Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.3825%, 1.6234%, and 1.8768%, respectively, with slight fluctuations compared to the previous week [58][44]. - A total of 593 billion yuan in new local government bonds is planned for issuance in the week of September 29, with 494 billion yuan designated for special bonds [44].

Core Viewpoint - Since 2020, productive credit (excluding real estate and infrastructure loans) has been continuously increasing, while terminal demand credit (related to real estate and infrastructure) has been declining, indicating that credit support is more reflected on the supply side rather than the demand side [2][4][5] Group 1: Productive Credit Needs to Decline - A clear definition is established: terminal demand credit includes infrastructure loans, real estate loans, and consumer loans, while productive credit includes business loans and non-real estate infrastructure loans [4][13] - Data observation shows that since 2020, the growth of productive credit has significantly outpaced that of terminal demand credit, with productive credit increasing by 4.8 trillion compared to a decrease of 4.9 trillion in terminal demand credit from 2019 to 2024 [4][13] - The excessive increase in productive credit may exacerbate supply-demand contradictions, where productive investment serves as both current demand and future supply [4][15] Group 2: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index as of September 7, 2025, is at 6.93%, up 0.17 points from the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [6][17] - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement shipment rates have improved compared to last year, with asphalt plant operating rates at 34.9%, up 9% year-on-year [7][26] - Real estate sales have shown a significant increase, with a 16.6% year-on-year growth in residential sales in 67 cities during the first five days of September [8][24] Group 3: Price Trends - Prices of gold, oil, and copper have risen, with COMEX gold at $3646.3 per ounce, up 1.3%, and LME copper at $10068 per ton, up 1.2% [8][44] - Domestic commodity prices have remained stable, while overseas prices have increased, indicating a divergence in price trends [8][44] Group 4: Interest Rates and Debt - The yield on government bonds has shown an upward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8670%, reflecting a steepening yield curve [8][65] - The government has planned to issue new local government bonds amounting to 118.5 billion, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [8][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators in various sectors, including real estate, trade, and commodity prices, while also addressing the implications of recent legal rulings on tariffs and local government debt issuance. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to 6.16% as of August 24, down from 7.14% on August 17, indicating a high-level retreat in economic activity [8] - The sales decline in commercial housing has narrowed, with a reported decrease of -14% in the first 29 days of August compared to -22% in July [12] - The container throughput at Chinese ports has shown a year-on-year increase of 5.9% over the past four weeks, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.3% [22] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have slowed, with a growth rate of +6% as of August 24, down from +8% previously [14] - The land premium rate has decreased to 1.62% as of August 24, compared to 6.5% in July, indicating a cooling in the real estate market [12] Group 3: Production Trends - The operating rate of oil asphalt plants has declined for two consecutive weeks, currently at 29.3%, down 1.4% from the previous week [17] - Industrial production indicators show a mixed performance, with coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port increasing by 7.3% year-on-year, but overall industrial production remains weak [20] Group 4: Trade Developments - The recent legal ruling on U.S. tariffs has deemed most global tariff policies illegal, which may impact trade dynamics between the U.S. and China [4] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has significantly decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 33.3% in the number of ships [23] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Prices for gold, oil, and copper have risen, with gold reaching $3,475.5 per ounce, up 3%, and oil prices increasing by 0.5% for WTI and 0.6% for Brent [34] - Conversely, prices for "anti-involution" commodities such as coal and steel have declined, with Shanxi thermal coal prices dropping by 2% [35] Group 6: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has reached 74.6% of the annual target, which is better than in previous years [4] - Long-term interest rates have shown slight adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8379%, reflecting a change of +5.61 basis points from the previous week [57]

Group 1 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has risen above 7%, reaching 7.14% as of August 17, up from 6.52% the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][10][11] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 8% as of August 17, compared to a previous decline of 4% [2][15] - The land premium rate has rebounded to 10.3% as of August 17, compared to 6.5% in July, indicating a positive trend in the real estate market [2][16] Group 2 - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 22.7% as of August 23, compared to an average decline of 5.8% in July [4][29] - Prices of "anti-involution" commodities have weakened, with lithium carbonate experiencing the largest drop of 8.9% [4][45] - The U.S. and EU have reached an agreement on a trade framework, imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods imported into the U.S., while certain natural resources and pharmaceuticals are exempt [4][29] Group 3 - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 3.26 trillion yuan issued, representing 74.2% of the planned issuance, which is faster than in 2020-2021 but slower than in 2022 [5][49] - The yields on government bonds have increased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.3665%, 1.5948%, and 1.7465%, respectively, reflecting a rise from the previous week [5][65] Group 4 - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities has increased by 2.2% year-on-year, reaching 81.08 million passengers in the first three weeks of August [2][15] - The construction-related indicators, such as asphalt operating rates and cement dispatch rates, have shown improvement compared to last year [2][19] - The overall industrial production remains stable, with coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port showing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [2][20]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang WEI index rose to 7.14% as of August 17, 2025, up from 6.52% the previous week, marking an increase of 0.62 percentage points[1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 8% year-on-year as of August 17, 2025, compared to a previous decline of 4%[1] - The land premium rate rebounded to 10.3% as of August 17, 2025, with a two-week average of 6%[1] Trade and Consumption - Container throughput at Chinese ports maintained a high level, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 5% as of August 17, 2025[1] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 22.7% year-on-year as of August 23, 2025, compared to an average decline of 5.8% in July[2] - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities increased by 2.2% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August 2025[1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose to $3,373.6 per ounce, an increase of 1.1%, while U.S. oil prices reached $63.7 per barrel, up 1.4%[2] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 8.9%, marking the largest decline among "anti-involution" commodities[2] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance reached 3.26 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 74.2% as of August 25, 2025[3] - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds was reported at 1.3665%, 1.5948%, and 1.7465%, respectively, with increases of 1.59bps, 4.94bps, and 5.74bps compared to August 8, 2025[3]

Core Viewpoint - The significant divergence between the stock-bond Sharpe ratio and price trends indicates a notable recovery in the attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, although the price response has been lagging [2][6][22]. Group 1: Key Indicators - Over the past two years, equity assets have underperformed compared to bond assets, with the ten-year government bond yield hitting record lows while the dividend yield of the Wande All A index has reached new highs [6][14]. - The decline in the equity-bond yield spread suggests a growing preference for bond assets, as investors demand higher dividend returns from equity assets [6][14]. - The underperformance of equity assets is attributed to their higher volatility and drawdown compared to bonds, leading to a preference for lower-risk bond investments [6][19]. Group 2: Underlying Logic - The recovery in the stock-bond Sharpe ratio is primarily driven by policy measures that have mitigated risks, limiting downward expressions in the stock market and reducing volatility [3][8][26]. - Economic indicators, such as the scissors difference between corporate and household deposits, have shown signs of recovery since September 2024, suggesting that profit growth may be nearing its bottom [3][9][26]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The "highlight moment" for equities may occur earlier than expected, as the current environment shows a significant increase in the stock Sharpe ratio despite economic bottoming [4][10]. - The relationship between stocks and bonds in China is shifting towards favoring equities, with expectations that bonds may decline while stocks rise [4][11][30]. - Given the macroeconomic conditions, there is a need to emphasize the allocation value of equities compared to bonds [4][11].