文 ： 华创证券研究所副所⻓ 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 每周经济观察： （⼀）景⽓向上： 1 、商品房销售降幅收窄。 我们统计的 67 个城市， 8 ⽉前 29 天，商品房成交⾯积同⽐为 -14% 。 7 ⽉同⽐为 -22% 。 6 ⽉同⽐为 -17.6% 。 2 、出⼝：我国港⼝集装箱吞吐量四周同⽐继续⾛⾼。 8 ⽉ 24 ⽇当周，我国监测港⼝集装箱吞吐量环 ⽐ +0.3% ，上周为 -0.6% ；四周累计同⽐升⾄ 5.9% ，上周为 5% ， 7 ⽉底为 5.6% 。 3 、价格：金油铜价格上涨。 COMEX ⻩金收于 3475.5 美金 / 盎司，上涨 3% ； LME 三个⽉铜价收 于 9875 美元 / 吨，上涨 1.9% ；美油收于 64 美元 / 桶，上涨 0.5% ，布油收于 68.1 美元 / 桶，上涨 0.6% 。 （⼆）景⽓向下： 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数⾼位回落。 截⾄ 8 ⽉ 24 ⽇，该指数为 6.16% ，环⽐ 8 ⽉ 17 ⽇的 7.14% 下⾏ 0.98 个点。 2 、耐⽤品消费： ...

Group 1 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has risen above 7%, reaching 7.14% as of August 17, up from 6.52% the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][10][11] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 8% as of August 17, compared to a previous decline of 4% [2][15] - The land premium rate has rebounded to 10.3% as of August 17, compared to 6.5% in July, indicating a positive trend in the real estate market [2][16] Group 2 - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 22.7% as of August 23, compared to an average decline of 5.8% in July [4][29] - Prices of "anti-involution" commodities have weakened, with lithium carbonate experiencing the largest drop of 8.9% [4][45] - The U.S. and EU have reached an agreement on a trade framework, imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods imported into the U.S., while certain natural resources and pharmaceuticals are exempt [4][29] Group 3 - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 3.26 trillion yuan issued, representing 74.2% of the planned issuance, which is faster than in 2020-2021 but slower than in 2022 [5][49] - The yields on government bonds have increased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.3665%, 1.5948%, and 1.7465%, respectively, reflecting a rise from the previous week [5][65] Group 4 - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities has increased by 2.2% year-on-year, reaching 81.08 million passengers in the first three weeks of August [2][15] - The construction-related indicators, such as asphalt operating rates and cement dispatch rates, have shown improvement compared to last year [2][19] - The overall industrial production remains stable, with coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port showing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [2][20]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang WEI index rose to 7.14% as of August 17, 2025, up from 6.52% the previous week, marking an increase of 0.62 percentage points[1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 8% year-on-year as of August 17, 2025, compared to a previous decline of 4%[1] - The land premium rate rebounded to 10.3% as of August 17, 2025, with a two-week average of 6%[1] Trade and Consumption - Container throughput at Chinese ports maintained a high level, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 5% as of August 17, 2025[1] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 22.7% year-on-year as of August 23, 2025, compared to an average decline of 5.8% in July[2] - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities increased by 2.2% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August 2025[1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose to $3,373.6 per ounce, an increase of 1.1%, while U.S. oil prices reached $63.7 per barrel, up 1.4%[2] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 8.9%, marking the largest decline among "anti-involution" commodities[2] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance reached 3.26 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 74.2% as of August 25, 2025[3] - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds was reported at 1.3665%, 1.5948%, and 1.7465%, respectively, with increases of 1.59bps, 4.94bps, and 5.74bps compared to August 8, 2025[3]

Core Viewpoint - The significant divergence between the stock-bond Sharpe ratio and price trends indicates a notable recovery in the attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, although the price response has been lagging [2][6][22]. Group 1: Key Indicators - Over the past two years, equity assets have underperformed compared to bond assets, with the ten-year government bond yield hitting record lows while the dividend yield of the Wande All A index has reached new highs [6][14]. - The decline in the equity-bond yield spread suggests a growing preference for bond assets, as investors demand higher dividend returns from equity assets [6][14]. - The underperformance of equity assets is attributed to their higher volatility and drawdown compared to bonds, leading to a preference for lower-risk bond investments [6][19]. Group 2: Underlying Logic - The recovery in the stock-bond Sharpe ratio is primarily driven by policy measures that have mitigated risks, limiting downward expressions in the stock market and reducing volatility [3][8][26]. - Economic indicators, such as the scissors difference between corporate and household deposits, have shown signs of recovery since September 2024, suggesting that profit growth may be nearing its bottom [3][9][26]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The "highlight moment" for equities may occur earlier than expected, as the current environment shows a significant increase in the stock Sharpe ratio despite economic bottoming [4][10]. - The relationship between stocks and bonds in China is shifting towards favoring equities, with expectations that bonds may decline while stocks rise [4][11][30]. - Given the macroeconomic conditions, there is a need to emphasize the allocation value of equities compared to bonds [4][11].