杠铃式策略

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美银:美股科技股仍有上涨空间 建议投资者采取"杠铃式"策略
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-09-20 02:06
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of America team, led by strategist Michael Hartnett, believes that investors should prepare for the continued rise of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks (Tesla, Google, Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia) as their valuations and price increases have not yet reached historical peak levels [1][4]. Valuation Analysis - Current valuation indicators for the "Magnificent Seven," including price-to-earnings ratios and deviations from key technical moving averages, suggest there is still upward potential [4]. - Historical data shows that major market bubbles have seen average price increases of 244% from bottom to peak, while the "Magnificent Seven" has risen 223% since its March 2023 low, indicating further upside potential [4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the "Magnificent Seven" is 39 times, compared to historical bubble peaks where it typically reached 58 times, and the price is only 20% above the 200-day moving average, compared to historical peaks of 29% [4]. Market Sentiment and Macro Environment - Positive macroeconomic conditions, ongoing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence technology, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are key factors supporting the rise of tech stocks [5]. - The S&P 500 Information Technology Index has increased by 56% since its low in April 2023, with investors consistently buying during pullbacks [5]. - A recent Bank of America fund manager survey indicated that "going long on the Magnificent Seven" is viewed as the most crowded trade, with 42% of respondents agreeing, reflecting characteristics typical of historical bubbles [5]. Investment Strategy - While optimistic about the continuation of the tech stock bubble, the Bank of America team advises investors to adopt a more balanced strategy to manage risk [5]. - The recommended "barbell strategy" involves holding large-cap tech stocks while also allocating some investments to "bad value stocks" to achieve a balance between risk and return [5].
美国中产购房崩盘,一位76岁建筑亿万富豪的生死转型
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-07 10:50
这位房屋建筑商通过满足中产阶级和中上层阶级的需求赚得盆满钵满。但在经济动荡中,这些消费者削减了开支,帕特·尼尔(Pat Neal)不得不制定新计 划,力求逆势突围。 帕特·尼尔将自己形容成一只海鸥。"只要哪里有一根鸡骨头,我就会俯冲过去。这是我的权利。"这位前佛罗里达州议员、Neal Communities创始人说道。 他的意思是,他会从高处俯瞰他这家营收10亿美元、总部位于萨拉索塔市的房屋建筑公司,一旦有什么小事引起他的注意,他就会迅速介入。 4月初,《福布斯》与尼尔交谈时,他刚结束一个关于植被缓冲带的电话会议,坚持让同事把一棵罗汉松往街道方向挪动6英寸。"对我们来说,不管是房 屋内部还是周遭环境,几乎没有什么问题是微不足道、不值得去解决的。我们希望湿地保持原始状态,社区始终美丽宜人,垃圾不复存在。" 图片来源:Guerin Blask for Forbes 01 托尔兄弟公司(Toll Brothers)为富人建造豪宅,霍顿房屋(D.R. Horton)为大众建造房屋,Neal Communities则瞄准尼尔口中的"神奇中产":购房支出在 40万美元到100万美元出头之间的中产阶级和中上层阶级家庭(根据 ...