这几天，在成都杉杉奥特莱斯逛街购物的市民们发现，广场上多了一处特别的"安家驿站"。2月7日起，由龙泉驿 区住房和城乡建设局主办、区房地产业协会等单位协办的"宜居天府·安家龙泉"新春安家活动在此温暖开展，市民 在选购琳琅满目的商品迎新的同时，也收获了一份贴心的"安家指南"。 "这次政府搭台、企业参与的活动，效果远超预期。"现场某房地产项目负责人表示，"不少市民是趁逛街之余过来 了解，反而因此产生了强烈的购房意愿，我们每天接待的咨询量非常可观。"多家参展企业反馈，此次活动不仅有 效提升了项目曝光，更直接促成了大量潜在客户的积累，市民的认真比较和热烈咨询，反映出市场对龙泉驿安居 环境的认可与期待。 据悉，活动将持续至2月14日。集购物与安家资讯于一体，本次活动不仅为市民提供了实实在在的便利，也为区域 楼市注入了新春的暖意与活力。（文图 廖玉蓉） 奥特莱斯入口广场，房地产项目展区内人流络绎不绝。不少原本计划逛街的市民被吸引驻足，在"购房地图"前细 细查看区域规划，于各项目展台间咨询比较，现场气氛热烈。"本来是带孩子来买新年衣服的，没想到顺便把房子 也看了，几个楼盘的位置和户型都挺心动。"带着家人前来的张先生表示，这样 ...

行业研究 建筑施工行业 2026 年建筑施工行业展望： 供需结构深度调整，信用分化趋势显现 工商部 | 肖尧 2026 年 2 月 6 日 摘要 2025 年，我国建筑施工行业进入调整与转型阶段。行业供给端形成"高端产能不足、低 端产能过剩"的结构性矛盾，行业正处于从同质化规模供给向差异化能力供给转型的关键阶 段。需求端正经历深刻转变，增长动力从传统房地产开发逐步转向以"两重"建设、城市更 新、绿色智能建筑为代表的多元领域。融资端，债券发行集中于高信用等级央国企，行业整 体债务规模较大，需持续关注债券兑付情况。预计 2026 年，我国建筑施工行业将继续向高质 量、专业化方向演进，政策方向将聚焦国家重点战略与新兴领域。行业整体信用质量将保持 稳定，但需重点关注行业结构性调整带来的信用风险分化。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 2025 年，我国建筑业总产值进入负增长区间，行业整体进入调整期。2025 年，我国建筑 业总产值同比由 326,501.11 亿元降至 303,818.33 亿元，2025 年 1～9 月出现近 5 年来的首次 累计负增长，并于年内延续下降趋势。同期，我国建筑业新签合同额为 ...

Core Insights - The issue of "delivery difficulties" in the real estate sector, which once caused market panic, is gradually becoming a thing of the past as many real estate companies report their housing delivery data for 2025, indicating that the delivery work is nearing completion [1][3][4]. Group 1: Delivery Progress - By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 7.5 million units of "sold but undelivered" housing have been delivered nationwide, with Country Garden delivering about 1.85 million units [1][4]. - Greenland Holdings announced that it expects to deliver over 8 million square meters of residential projects in 2025, translating to around 80,000 units, following previous deliveries of 260,000, 280,000, and 140,000 units from 2022 to 2024 [3]. - Sunac Group reported cumulative deliveries of over 720,000 units from 2022 to 2025, with the delivery work nearing completion [3]. Group 2: Industry Recovery - With the pressure of delivery alleviated, the real estate sector is entering a new phase of industry recovery [2]. - The national housing and urban-rural development meeting confirmed that the delivery tasks for 2025 have been fully completed, with a delivery rate of 99% for the 3.96 million units targeted in the "guaranteed delivery" campaign [4]. - The financial support for projects has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, facilitating smooth construction and delivery [4]. Group 3: Risk Mitigation - The past three years have seen a systematic risk mitigation effort, with collaboration among national, provincial, and municipal work teams to ensure accountability among local governments, real estate companies, and financial institutions [5]. - The implementation of targeted policies has significantly reduced concerns about project delays, with many previously troubled projects now successfully delivered [5][8]. - Experts indicate that real estate risks have notably subsided, with a shift in focus for many companies towards debt resolution, asset management, and revitalizing land holdings [6][7]. Group 4: Market Stability - There are signs of stabilization in housing prices, particularly in first-tier cities, which lays a solid foundation for market recovery and rebuilds confidence in the industry [8]. - The reduction in project suspensions and the increase in timely and high-standard deliveries have effectively safeguarded buyers' rights, contributing to a more stable market environment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The issue of "delivery difficulties" in the real estate sector, which once caused market panic, is gradually becoming a thing of the past as many real estate companies report significant progress in housing delivery by 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Delivery Progress - As of the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 7.5 million units of "sold but undelivered" housing have been successfully delivered nationwide [8]. - Country Garden has delivered about 1.85 million units, while other companies like Greenland, Sunac, and CIFI have also achieved significant delivery milestones [5][6]. - The delivery pressure on real estate companies has notably eased, with many stating that their delivery tasks are nearly complete [7]. Group 2: National Efforts and Support - The national housing and urban-rural development meeting confirmed that the delivery tasks for 2025 have been fully completed, with a delivery rate of 99% for the 3.96 million units targeted in the "guaranteed delivery" campaign [8]. - Over 7 trillion yuan in loan approvals for "white list" projects have been granted, providing strong financial support for project construction and delivery [8]. Group 3: Risk Mitigation and Future Outlook - The past three years have seen a systematic risk mitigation effort, with collaboration among national, provincial, and municipal levels to ensure accountability among local governments, real estate companies, and financial institutions [9]. - Experts indicate that real estate risks have significantly subsided, with many companies now focusing on debt resolution, asset management, and revitalizing their operational capabilities [11][12]. - Signs of market stabilization are emerging, particularly in first-tier cities, which lays a solid foundation for the recovery of the real estate market [12].

经过2025年之后，碧桂园（02007.HK）暂时获得了宝贵的喘息空间。 在该集团2月2日的年度工作会议上，董事局主席杨惠妍透露，在交付方面，碧桂园去年年内完成房屋交 付近17万套，自2023年起三年累计交付总量近115万套。另外在债务重组方面，碧桂园旗下9笔境内债 券、规模约137.7亿元人民币的境内债务重组方案全部通过，涉及规模约177亿美元的境外债务重组方案 亦于2025年12月31日生效，整体降债规模预估将近900亿元，重组后新债务融资成本骤降至1%-2.5%， 为未来五年发展争取了关键窗口。 对于2026年，杨惠妍将其定义为"保交房收官之年"。她提出了清晰的时间表：争取在2026年年中完成大 部分交房任务，从而腾出更多的精力修复资债表、恢复正常经营。所谓"恢复正常经营"，其标志是经营 性现金流回正，最终目标是公司整体现金流和利润均为正。 恢复正常经营的标志就是，经营性现金流回正。 碧桂园联席主席莫斌也强调，保交房收官是首要任务，资债表修复需要以时间换空间，而恢复正常经营 是关键，只有发展才能真正有效解决问题。 对于未来企业及行业的发展方向，杨惠妍认为，整部房地产发展史表明，单一政策的影响或是脉冲式 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke has announced its performance forecast for 2025, highlighting the challenges faced in the past year and the support from major shareholders, which has helped stabilize operations and maintain production [1] Group 1: Performance and Delivery - Vanke plans to deliver 117,000 housing units in 2025, having completed approximately 70% of the required deliveries for the past two years, with delivery pressure expected to significantly decrease [1] - The company utilized advanced technologies such as 360° cameras and drones for project monitoring, achieving timely delivery of 117,000 housing units, including 16,000 units delivered 30 days early and about 5,000 units delivered across the year-end [2] - Vanke's operational service business reported stable revenue of 43.57 billion yuan by Q3 2025, maintaining industry leadership in long-term rental business scale and efficiency, with a management scale exceeding 200,000 units and a stable occupancy rate of 94% [2] Group 2: Support from Major Shareholders - Shenzhen Metro Group, Vanke's major shareholder, has provided over 30 billion yuan in shareholder loans under favorable conditions to alleviate liquidity pressure and enhance business collaboration in areas such as long-term rental and logistics [1] Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Focus - Despite support, Vanke's operational performance remains under significant pressure due to several factors, including a notable decline in the settlement scale of real estate development projects and low gross profit margins [3] - The company has faced increased business risk exposure, leading to new provisions for credit and asset impairments, alongside losses in some operational and non-core financial investments [3] - Vanke aims to improve operations through strategic focus, standardized operations, and technology empowerment to optimize business layout and structure, with a commitment to overcoming challenges and exiting the current downturn [3]

Core Viewpoint - Vanke has announced its performance forecast for 2025, indicating a challenging year ahead despite support from major shareholders and efforts to stabilize operations. The company aims to deliver 117,000 homes while facing significant operational pressures and expected losses due to various factors [1] Group 1: Performance and Delivery - Vanke plans to deliver 117,000 homes in 2025, having completed nearly 70% of the required deliveries for the past two years, with the peak delivery period now passed [1] - The company achieved timely delivery of 117,000 homes, with 16,000 units delivered 30 days early and approximately 5,000 units delivered across the year-end [3] - Vanke has implemented various measures to enhance delivery efficiency, including the use of smart technologies like 360° cameras and drones for project monitoring [3] Group 2: Financial Challenges - Vanke's operational performance is under significant pressure due to a sharp decline in the scale of project settlements and low gross margins, primarily from projects sold in 2023 and 2024 [1] - The company has incurred additional credit and asset impairment provisions due to increased business risk exposure, alongside losses from operational activities and non-core financial investments [1] - The company reported that some asset transactions were executed at prices below their book values, contributing to the anticipated losses [1] Group 3: Support from Major Shareholders - Shenzhen Metro Group has provided over 30 billion yuan in shareholder loans to Vanke, with favorable terms to alleviate liquidity pressures [2] - The collaboration between Shenzhen Metro and Vanke has been strengthened through agreements in the housing rental sector and innovative projects like autonomous delivery systems [2] Group 4: Operational Resilience - Vanke's operational service business has shown stable revenue performance, achieving 43.57 billion yuan by Q3 2025, maintaining industry leadership in long-term rental business scale and efficiency [4] - The company has a management scale exceeding 200,000 units, with a stable occupancy rate of 94% in its rental properties [4] - Vanke aims to improve its operations through strategic focus, standardized operations, and technological empowerment to optimize business layout and structure [4]

1月30日，万科发布2025年度业绩预告。面对过去一年的多重艰巨挑战，在大股东和各方的大力支持 下，万科全力以赴、攻坚克难，实现了殊为不易的生产经营稳定。2025年，万科保质交付房屋11.7万 套，经营服务业务营收保持稳健，积极推动开发业务的降本增效，实现开发业务管理费用连续两年下 降。据了解，万科2025年已完成近两年需交付量约70%，交付高峰期已过，后续交付压力将显著下降。 万科自身也迎难而上，全力维持公司运营。房屋交付方面，在国家保交房政策"组合拳"持续落实和各方 支持下，万科克服重重挑战，完成2025年保交房任务。过去一年，万科多措并举推进交付工作，加强工 程品质全周期管理，提升项目过程管理的精细化水平，开展"城市兴交付"主题行动以构建可复制、可推 广的标准化工具体系，将360°摄像头、无人机巡场等智慧技术运用到项目工地让业主"云监工"，邀请客 户线下走进工地实地观看工程情况，积极开展"交付即办证"服务为客户提供便利，强化社区运营和配套 以打造有温度的社区生态。通过一系列的扎实行动，万科全年按期保质交付11.7万套房屋，其中1.6万套 实现提前30天交付，约5000套实现跨年提前交付，济南、郑州、南昌 ...

Group 1 - President Trump unexpectedly withdrew his previous threats to impose tariffs on Greenland during the Davos Forum, stating that he would not use military force to resolve the issue [1] - The announcement of a framework agreement with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg regarding Greenland has positively impacted the US stock market, leading to a rise in stock prices [1] Group 2 - US-UK trade negotiations remain stalled, with US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicating that the relationship has deteriorated to a low point, preventing new trade talks [5] - The US-UK trade agreement has significant gaps, and the UK is still facing a 10% tariff on goods, which, while lower than the EU's 15%, remains a burden [5] - The UK steel industry is seeking to lower the 25% tariff by promising supply chain security, but negotiations are progressing slowly [7] Group 3 - The UK government reported a significant decrease in the budget deficit for December, down 38% to £11.6 billion, exceeding economists' expectations [8] - Tax revenue increased by 8.9%, particularly from income tax, corporate tax, VAT, and national insurance contributions, contributing to the improved fiscal situation [8] Group 4 - The UK housing market shows a complex performance, with an average house price increase of £2,300 across 30 million homes, but only half of the homes saw a value increase of over 1% [10] - There is a notable regional disparity in the housing market, with Northern England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland experiencing significant price increases, while London has a lower increase rate [12]

Group 1 - MakeMyTrip Ltd (MMYT.O) maintains an outperform rating with a target price of $85, despite slightly lower than expected revenue in Q3 FY26 due to currency, regulatory, and GST adjustments, while hotel and transportation segments show resilience [1] - iQIYI (IQ.O) holds a buy rating with a stable membership revenue and a revenue of 6.763 billion yuan in Q4 25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, supported by rich content reserves and favorable policies [2] - Netflix (NFLX.O) has a buy rating with a target price of $103, reporting revenue and profit growth in Q4, driven by subscription price increases and advertising growth, with a projected free cash flow of $11 billion by 2026 [4] Group 2 - Horton Homes (DHI.N) maintains a buy rating with a target price of $178, despite a decline in revenue and profit in FY26 Q1, as the company stabilizes sales through incentives and a strong capital structure [5] - Full Truck Alliance (YMM.N) has a buy rating with a target price of $16.1, showing a 31% year-on-year increase in commission revenue from freight transaction services, with a clear shareholder return plan of $400 million by 2026 [6] - Netflix (NFLX.O) also has a buy rating with a target price of $110.82, with Q4 results exceeding expectations and a forecast of advertising revenue doubling in 2026, supported by AI-enhanced content production [7]