Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of global macro assets (stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies) during extreme events such as the 2015 stock market crash, the 2018 US-China trade war, and the 2020 pandemic, providing insights on trading strategies to maximize returns while managing risks [1][4][20]. Group 1: Asset Performance During Extreme Events - In the 2015 stock market crash, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5178 to 3373, a decline of 35%, with high-leverage funds causing liquidity issues [5] - During the 2018 US-China trade war, the S&P 500 experienced a maximum drawdown of 20%, while agricultural products like US soybeans plummeted due to tariffs, and gold rose by 10% due to safe-haven demand [5] - The 2020 pandemic led to a global market decline, with the S&P 500 dropping 34%, while technology stocks benefitted from increased demand for home services [5] Group 2: Trading Strategies in Response to Events - In the initial phase of extreme events, risk assets typically experience panic selling, while safe-haven assets like government bonds and gold rise [4][8] - Strategies include shorting volatility by selling put options when implied volatility is high, and hedging risks by buying government bond futures or gold ETFs [6][9] - During the policy response phase, investors should focus on oversold growth stocks and consider commodity arbitrage opportunities [9][10] Group 3: Economic Recovery Phase - In the recovery phase, equity assets show differentiation, with technology and consumer sectors leading, while industrial metals like copper rise due to increased demand [10] - Strategies include increasing positions in cyclical stocks and high-yield bonds when their yields exceed 15% and collateral is sufficient [11][12] - An exit mechanism involves gradually reducing commodity positions when PMI rises above the neutral line [13] Group 4: Risk Management Principles - Position management should limit single asset exposure to 15% and total leverage to 1.5 times [14] - Hedging tools like options should be used to mitigate tail risks, with premiums kept within 2% of the position [14] - Monitoring macro indicators such as PMI and unemployment rates, as well as market sentiment indicators like the VIX index, is crucial for effective risk management [15][16] Group 5: Historical Insights - Common patterns indicate that safe-haven assets perform well in the early stages of extreme events, followed by a rebound in risk assets post-policy intervention, and a need for portfolio adjustment based on fundamental differentiation during recovery [17][20] - Specific responses to events include focusing on tariff lists during trade wars and liquidity recovery during pandemics [18][19]