国际金价突破历史极值区间，市场对美股处于历史峰值的风险焦虑持续升温，黄金或许仍是最佳对冲工具 AlphaSimplex公司首席研究策略师兼投资组合经理凯蒂・卡明斯基表示"若在股市情绪整体乐观、经济增长 数据向好的阶段，黄金仍被视为对冲工具或分散风险的选择，那么当股市情绪转向低迷时，它或许能为投 资者提供对冲或抵消潜在风险的渠道。" Marex公司分析师埃德・迈尔对黄金的对冲有效性提出质疑："我不确定若股市下跌，黄金是否会继续上涨 ——相反，我们可能会看到一场席卷所有市场的'熔断式暴跌'。" 迈尔强调"但对看空者而言，问题在于目前所有冲击市场的因素都未能奏效。"，从技术面看，黄金相对强 弱指数已连续两周处于超买区间，标普500指数乖离率也突破2个标准差，"由于股市与黄金均处于严重超 买状态，一旦触发因素出现，市场可能面临大幅回调。" 数据显示，周三纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货合约收于每盎司4070.50美元，这一价格不仅刷新历史 纪录，更较年初累计上涨逾50%。同期标普500指数也收于6753点的历史峰值，两大核心资产同步登顶的现 象，打破了1975年以来的历史规律。 美国银行高级投资策略总监罗布・哈沃斯 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. ETF market is experiencing a polarization, with investors reducing their holdings in gold assets and shifting towards Bitcoin, referred to as "digital gold" [1][4] - Over the past five weeks, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), have seen a net inflow of over $9 billion, while gold ETFs have faced an outflow of over $2.8 billion [1][4] - Recent easing of trade tensions has diminished the demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while concerns over U.S. fiscal stability have strengthened Bitcoin's position as an alternative store of value [4] Group 2 - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $111,980 earlier this month, driven by positive regulatory signals and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, while gold has seen a decline of about $190 from its recent peak despite maintaining a year-to-date increase of over 25% [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the asset rotation indicates growing market recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate hedging tool, with Jefferies' Christopher Wood affirming the value of both gold and Bitcoin as the best hedging instruments against currency devaluation risks [4] - Critics caution that Bitcoin's high volatility still hinders its status as a true safe-haven asset, recalling past events where Bitcoin fell sharply alongside other risk assets [4] Group 3 - Some institutions argue that Bitcoin is demonstrating unique advantages, with Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick noting its decentralized nature enhances its effectiveness in hedging financial system risks [4] - Kendrick identifies two main pathways through which Bitcoin serves as a hedge: addressing private sector risks, such as the recent Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and government-related risks, including concerns over U.S. Treasury stability [5] - The debate surrounding Bitcoin's role as a hedge is intensifying amid increasing fiscal pressures, highlighted by Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating due to rising deficits and debt [5] Group 4 - Despite the recent trends, gold has outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, with a price increase of approximately 25% compared to Bitcoin's 15% rise [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of global macro assets (stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies) during extreme events such as the 2015 stock market crash, the 2018 US-China trade war, and the 2020 pandemic, providing insights on trading strategies to maximize returns while managing risks [1][4][20]. Group 1: Asset Performance During Extreme Events - In the 2015 stock market crash, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5178 to 3373, a decline of 35%, with high-leverage funds causing liquidity issues [5] - During the 2018 US-China trade war, the S&P 500 experienced a maximum drawdown of 20%, while agricultural products like US soybeans plummeted due to tariffs, and gold rose by 10% due to safe-haven demand [5] - The 2020 pandemic led to a global market decline, with the S&P 500 dropping 34%, while technology stocks benefitted from increased demand for home services [5] Group 2: Trading Strategies in Response to Events - In the initial phase of extreme events, risk assets typically experience panic selling, while safe-haven assets like government bonds and gold rise [4][8] - Strategies include shorting volatility by selling put options when implied volatility is high, and hedging risks by buying government bond futures or gold ETFs [6][9] - During the policy response phase, investors should focus on oversold growth stocks and consider commodity arbitrage opportunities [9][10] Group 3: Economic Recovery Phase - In the recovery phase, equity assets show differentiation, with technology and consumer sectors leading, while industrial metals like copper rise due to increased demand [10] - Strategies include increasing positions in cyclical stocks and high-yield bonds when their yields exceed 15% and collateral is sufficient [11][12] - An exit mechanism involves gradually reducing commodity positions when PMI rises above the neutral line [13] Group 4: Risk Management Principles - Position management should limit single asset exposure to 15% and total leverage to 1.5 times [14] - Hedging tools like options should be used to mitigate tail risks, with premiums kept within 2% of the position [14] - Monitoring macro indicators such as PMI and unemployment rates, as well as market sentiment indicators like the VIX index, is crucial for effective risk management [15][16] Group 5: Historical Insights - Common patterns indicate that safe-haven assets perform well in the early stages of extreme events, followed by a rebound in risk assets post-policy intervention, and a need for portfolio adjustment based on fundamental differentiation during recovery [17][20] - Specific responses to events include focusing on tariff lists during trade wars and liquidity recovery during pandemics [18][19]