摩根大通力挺黄金，称未来三年金价或将翻倍随着投资者越来越多地将黄金用作股票对冲工具，未来三年金价可能上涨逾一倍。“近期ETF资金流入速度及客户反馈显示，包括主权财富基金、各国央行、养老基金、私人财富管理机构及资产管理公司在内的众多长期资本配置者，正计划增加黄金持仓，将其作为投资组合的战略性分散工具。”“若这一判断正确，且散户投资者并非周二黄金回调的推手，那么他们买入黄金ETF的行为，很可能并非受趋势驱动，而是由其他因素主导。”摩根大通策略师测算，全球非银行投资者的黄金配置比例已升至持仓总额的2.6%。这一数据的计算方式为——将非央行持有的6.6万亿美元私人黄金持仓，除以银行体系外持有的股票、债券、现金与黄金总资产。他们表示，若“投资者用黄金替代债券对冲股票风险”的理论成立，那么当前2.6%的配置比例很可能仍然过低。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that international gold prices have reached historical highs, with the market increasingly anxious about the risks associated with the peak levels of U.S. stocks, suggesting that gold may remain the best hedging tool [1][3]. - On Wednesday, gold futures for December delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $4,070.50 per ounce, marking a record high and an increase of over 50% since the beginning of the year [3]. - The S&P 500 index also reached a historical peak of 6,753 points, indicating a simultaneous rise in these two core assets, which breaks a historical trend observed since 1975 [3]. Group 2 - Factors such as the U.S. debt burden surpassing the statutory limit, increasing political interference in Federal Reserve policy, and ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts have weakened market confidence in traditional assets [3]. - Short-term movements in the S&P 500 index are expected to depend on corporate earnings growth and the performance of third-quarter financial reports [3]. - Gold's ability to maintain its upward trend relies on continued accumulation by global central banks [3]. Group 3 - During periods of overall optimistic stock market sentiment and positive economic growth data, gold is viewed as a hedging tool or a means of diversifying risk [3]. - Analysts express skepticism about gold's effectiveness as a hedge if the stock market declines, suggesting a potential for a broad market sell-off [3]. - The relative strength index for gold has remained in the overbought territory for two consecutive weeks, while the S&P 500 index has exceeded two standard deviations from its mean, indicating that both markets are in a severely overbought state [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. ETF market is experiencing a polarization, with investors reducing their holdings in gold assets and shifting towards Bitcoin, referred to as "digital gold" [1][4] - Over the past five weeks, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), have seen a net inflow of over $9 billion, while gold ETFs have faced an outflow of over $2.8 billion [1][4] - Recent easing of trade tensions has diminished the demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while concerns over U.S. fiscal stability have strengthened Bitcoin's position as an alternative store of value [4] Group 2 - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $111,980 earlier this month, driven by positive regulatory signals and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, while gold has seen a decline of about $190 from its recent peak despite maintaining a year-to-date increase of over 25% [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the asset rotation indicates growing market recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate hedging tool, with Jefferies' Christopher Wood affirming the value of both gold and Bitcoin as the best hedging instruments against currency devaluation risks [4] - Critics caution that Bitcoin's high volatility still hinders its status as a true safe-haven asset, recalling past events where Bitcoin fell sharply alongside other risk assets [4] Group 3 - Some institutions argue that Bitcoin is demonstrating unique advantages, with Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick noting its decentralized nature enhances its effectiveness in hedging financial system risks [4] - Kendrick identifies two main pathways through which Bitcoin serves as a hedge: addressing private sector risks, such as the recent Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and government-related risks, including concerns over U.S. Treasury stability [5] - The debate surrounding Bitcoin's role as a hedge is intensifying amid increasing fiscal pressures, highlighted by Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating due to rising deficits and debt [5] Group 4 - Despite the recent trends, gold has outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, with a price increase of approximately 25% compared to Bitcoin's 15% rise [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of global macro assets (stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies) during extreme events such as the 2015 stock market crash, the 2018 US-China trade war, and the 2020 pandemic, providing insights on trading strategies to maximize returns while managing risks [1][4][20]. Group 1: Asset Performance During Extreme Events - In the 2015 stock market crash, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5178 to 3373, a decline of 35%, with high-leverage funds causing liquidity issues [5] - During the 2018 US-China trade war, the S&P 500 experienced a maximum drawdown of 20%, while agricultural products like US soybeans plummeted due to tariffs, and gold rose by 10% due to safe-haven demand [5] - The 2020 pandemic led to a global market decline, with the S&P 500 dropping 34%, while technology stocks benefitted from increased demand for home services [5] Group 2: Trading Strategies in Response to Events - In the initial phase of extreme events, risk assets typically experience panic selling, while safe-haven assets like government bonds and gold rise [4][8] - Strategies include shorting volatility by selling put options when implied volatility is high, and hedging risks by buying government bond futures or gold ETFs [6][9] - During the policy response phase, investors should focus on oversold growth stocks and consider commodity arbitrage opportunities [9][10] Group 3: Economic Recovery Phase - In the recovery phase, equity assets show differentiation, with technology and consumer sectors leading, while industrial metals like copper rise due to increased demand [10] - Strategies include increasing positions in cyclical stocks and high-yield bonds when their yields exceed 15% and collateral is sufficient [11][12] - An exit mechanism involves gradually reducing commodity positions when PMI rises above the neutral line [13] Group 4: Risk Management Principles - Position management should limit single asset exposure to 15% and total leverage to 1.5 times [14] - Hedging tools like options should be used to mitigate tail risks, with premiums kept within 2% of the position [14] - Monitoring macro indicators such as PMI and unemployment rates, as well as market sentiment indicators like the VIX index, is crucial for effective risk management [15][16] Group 5: Historical Insights - Common patterns indicate that safe-haven assets perform well in the early stages of extreme events, followed by a rebound in risk assets post-policy intervention, and a need for portfolio adjustment based on fundamental differentiation during recovery [17][20] - Specific responses to events include focusing on tariff lists during trade wars and liquidity recovery during pandemics [18][19]