Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities forecasts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will record year-on-year changes of -2.9% and -2.0% in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year reading for September has rebounded to -0.3%, although the increase is slightly below market expectations [1] - The core CPI has shown a continuous increase for five months, marking the first time in nearly 19 months that the growth rate has returned to 1% [1] Price Trends - There is a notable divergence in price trends, with durable consumer goods and gold jewelry prices performing well, while service prices remain relatively weak [1] - Looking ahead, the effects of the pig cycle misalignment are expected to gradually weaken, leading to a significant rebound in the CPI year-on-year reading in Q4 of 2025 [1] Future Projections - Under a neutral scenario, the year-end CPI year-on-year reading is expected to reach a peak of around 1.0% [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that under a neutral scenario, the year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) will record -2.9% and -2.0% in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 respectively [1] Group 1: PPI and CPI Trends - The "pig cycle misalignment" has led to a significant decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with a year-on-year reading dropping to -0.4% [1] - In August, the impact of pork prices contributed to a decrease in CPI by approximately 0.24 percentage points [1] - The core CPI has been on an upward trend since April, with notable increases in prices for gold jewelry and durable consumer goods benefiting from trade-in subsidy policies [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Looking ahead, the effects of the pig cycle misalignment are expected to gradually weaken starting in September, which will support improvements in future CPI year-on-year readings [1] - The CPI year-on-year reading is anticipated to show a significant rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the highest point potentially reaching around 1.0% by the end of the year [1]