Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1% [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with significant price hikes in transportation-related services due to the summer travel season [1][2] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a steady upward trend [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies and gradual release of consumption potential, alongside the establishment of a unified domestic market [3] - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with household appliances seeing a 2.8% increase, reflecting a positive impact on CPI [3] - Service prices also experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with notable rises in household and educational services, contributing to the overall CPI growth [3][4] Group 3 - Overall, the CPI in July remained stable, with positive changes continuing to emerge, although the market still faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand [4] - Future policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and furthering the construction of a unified national market are expected to continue yielding positive effects on price levels [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July, the CPI turned from flat to rising month - on - month, mainly due to higher service prices during the summer travel season, rising international oil and gold prices, and increased demand driven by replacement policies. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and its year - on - year growth stopped falling. Overall, with policy promotion and external factors, prices improved marginally in July. However, the price improvement in the upstream of the industrial chain was significantly better than that in the mid - and downstream. Mid - and downstream enterprises' price increases were restricted by insufficient effective demand. Anti - involution policies cannot boost prices overnight, and "stabilizing prices, reducing production capacity, and increasing demand" need to be coordinated. In the short term, with the continuous implementation of replacement and anti - involution policies, domestic prices are expected to recover steadily [3][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Service and Industrial Consumer Goods Prices Rise, CPI Month - on - Month Exceeds Seasonal Improvement - The CPI was flat year - on - year, rising 0.4% month - on - month after a 0.1% decline last month. Its month - on - month growth was better than the seasonal average [11]. - The month - on - month increase in CPI beyond the seasonal level was mainly driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices. During the summer travel season, service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, contributing about 0.26 pct to the CPI increase. International oil price hikes and replacement policies led to a 0.5% month - on - month increase in industrial consumer goods prices, contributing about 0.17 pct to the CPI increase [11]. - The carry - over effect turned negative, and the negative impact on the CPI year - on - year reading from the carry - over effect will expand from August to September [12]. - The year - on - year increase in the core CPI has been expanding for three consecutive months, with the highest month - on - month increase this year, mainly affected by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry and services [14]. - Among the eight major categories, service - related items such as transportation, communication, education, culture, entertainment, and other supplies and services had relatively large month - on - month increases, while food and tobacco decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [16]. - Food prices declined more than the seasonal average, dragging the CPI from rising to flat. In July, food prices fell 0.2% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened, mainly due to high base prices last year [17]. - Non - food prices rose more than the seasonal average, supported by the summer travel season, rising international oil prices, and policies to boost domestic demand, which was the main factor for the CPI to turn from decline to increase month - on - month [20]. 2. Raw Material and Energy Mining and Processing Prices Improve, PPI Month - on - Month Decline Narrows - The PPI was flat year - on - year, and its month - on - month decline narrowed. In July, the PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, with the same decline as last month, and 0.2% month - on - month, with a 0.2 pct narrower decline than last month [25]. - The negative impact of the carry - over effect on the PPI weakened. In August, the PPI carry - over factor rose to - 0.7%, and from September to December, it will be in the range of 0 to - 0.1%. With the continuous release of policies to expand domestic demand and combat involution, the year - on - year decline in PPI may narrow significantly [27]. - The month - on - month decline in production material prices narrowed, while the decline in consumer goods prices widened [28]. - By industry, industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal mining and processing had relatively large month - on - month increases, while industries such as coal, ferrous metal ore, and non - metallic mineral mining had relatively large month - on - month decreases. Overall, industrial product prices in most industries still declined, but some upstream industries showed obvious improvements [30]. - The decline in the PPI - CPI gap narrowed, but mid - and downstream industrial enterprises still faced significant pressure, mainly due to rising upstream prices, falling or stagnant downstream prices, and insufficient endogenous consumer demand [34]. 3. Conclusion: Positive Signals in July's Prices In July, the CPI turned from flat to rising month - on - month, and the PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. Overall, prices improved marginally in July. However, the price improvement in the upstream was better than that in the mid - and downstream. Anti - involution policies need to be coordinated with "stabilizing prices, reducing production capacity, and increasing demand." In the short term, domestic prices are expected to recover steadily with continuous policy implementation [35].

Group 1 - In July, Beijing's Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month to an increase of 0.7% [1] - Food prices decreased by 0.9%, with fresh fruit prices dropping by 7.4%, while pork prices turned from a decrease of 1.1% to an increase of 0.6% [1] - Prices for air tickets, accommodation, and travel agency services increased by 37.8%, 11.8%, and 6.1% respectively [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, Beijing's CPI decreased by 0.2%, with food prices shifting from an increase of 0.7% to a decrease of 1.5% [2] - Prices for travel agency services and accommodation fell by 10.0% and 7.0%, while air ticket prices increased by 8.5% [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 1.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [2]

Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Core Insights - In July, Beijing's Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decline to an increase, rising by 0.7% month-on-month while experiencing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: CPI Trends - The food prices decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Non-food prices shifted from a 0.3% decrease in the previous month to a 0.9% increase [1] Group 2: Service and Industrial Prices - Service prices transitioned from a 0.3% decrease to a 1.1% increase, driven by increased travel during the summer, with airfares, accommodation, and travel agency fees rising by 37.8%, 11.8%, and 6.1% respectively [1] - Industrial consumer goods prices changed from a 0.2% decrease to a 0.9% increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 3.6% and 4.0%, respectively, marking an increase of 3.3 and 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Prices for large household appliances shifted from a 0.1% decrease to a 2.7% increase, while gold jewelry prices rose by 0.3% [1]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, while year-on-year CPI remained flat [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and reflecting positive signals in the consumption market [2] Group 2: Price Influences - The month-on-month CPI increase was primarily driven by a 0.6% rise in service prices, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, with significant impacts from travel-related costs during the summer season [1] - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, influenced by a 1.6% increase in energy prices, which contributed about 0.12 percentage points to the CPI [1] Group 3: Food Prices Impact - Year-on-year CPI remained flat mainly due to a 1.6% decline in food prices, with fresh vegetables and fruits being the primary contributors to this decrease [2] - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry increased significantly, by 37.1% and 27.3% respectively, collectively impacting the CPI by approximately 0.22 percentage points [2] Group 4: Monetary Policy Context - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for moderately loose monetary policy to address challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, aiming to stabilize economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Guangdong showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of 0.3%, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month [1] - Month-on-month, the CPI shifted from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month to an increase of 0.5% in July, driven by a significant rise in non-food prices [3] Group 2: Food and Non-Food Price Trends - Food prices decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI decline, with pork prices down 2.4% and egg prices down 4.8% [2] - Non-food prices saw a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less than the previous month, contributing about 0.07 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] - Month-on-month, food prices fell by 0.3%, while non-food prices increased by 0.6%, with significant increases in air ticket prices (up 29.8%) and tourism prices (up 14.7%) due to the summer peak season [3] Group 3: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.0%, with the decline rate widening by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [4] - In the PPI survey, 38 major industries showed 8 increases and 29 decreases, with an industry increase rate of 21.1%, down 7.8 percentage points from last month [4] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by 0.2%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points, and 11 industries reported price increases [5]

Core Insights - The July PPI improved on a month-on-month basis but remained unchanged year-on-year at -3.6%, slightly below market expectations, indicating a disconnect in price transmission from upstream raw materials to downstream industries [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to significant price increases in key commodities such as coal, steel, and lithium, but these increases have not effectively translated into higher industrial product prices [2][3] - The ongoing "pig cycle misalignment" has resulted in CPI slightly exceeding market expectations, driven by unexpected price increases in core goods, energy, and other services [5][6] PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI improved due to rising commodity prices, but the year-on-year figure did not show improvement, highlighting weak downstream demand and limited pricing power for enterprises [1][3] - The analysis framework indicates that while upstream raw material prices have improved, the PPI for downstream industries has continued to decline, particularly in the export chain [4] - The dual impact of supply-side policies and demand-side pressures is evident, with the export chain facing significant downward pressure [4] CPI Insights - The CPI for July was reported at 0.0% year-on-year, slightly above the expected -0.1%, driven by durable goods benefiting from trade-in subsidies and rising energy prices [5][6] - The increase in CPI was significantly influenced by the price hikes in gold and platinum jewelry, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the overall CPI [5] - Expectations for CPI improvement are projected for September, considering the ongoing misalignment in the pig cycle and slow recovery in consumer spending [6] Market Implications - The bond market may experience low volatility as CPI and PPI figures align closely with market expectations, with a focus on inflation recovery and potential demand-side policies [7] - The overall economic environment remains sensitive to both domestic policy effectiveness and international trade dynamics, which could influence future market performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous effect of the domestic demand expansion policy is leading to positive changes in consumer prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing stability and slight increases in certain areas [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [1]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [5]. - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 7.6% and pork prices decreasing by 9.5%, contributing to the overall CPI stability [2][5]. Price Contributions - Service and industrial consumer goods prices were the main drivers of the CPI increase, with service prices rising by 0.6% month-on-month and industrial prices increasing by 0.5% [3][4]. - Specific price increases in the travel sector, such as airfares and accommodation, significantly impacted the CPI, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the month-on-month increase [4]. PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, primarily due to seasonal factors affecting manufacturing and construction [6]. - Certain industries, such as non-metallic mineral products and coal mining, experienced price declines, but the overall rate of decline has narrowed, indicating potential stabilization [7][8]. - Expectations for August suggest a possible improvement in PPI, driven by a low base effect and ongoing domestic demand recovery [8].

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year it remained flat [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with significant price increases in gold and platinum jewelry [2] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in prices [2] Group 2 - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with service prices up 0.6% month-on-month [1][2] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies has led to a recovery in demand, contributing to the positive changes in prices across various sectors [3] - The recent PPI data suggests improvements in supply-demand relationships and reflects the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies aimed at optimizing industrial structures [3]