文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、 耿佩璇 事件： 2月11日，国家统计局公布1月通胀数据，CPI同比0.2%、前值0.8%、预期0.4%、环比0.2%；PPI同 比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比0.4%。 核心观点：1月通胀分化，背后源于春节错位、输入性因素拉动提升，需求偏弱共同影响 1月PPI降幅明显收窄，主因铜价对PPI的拉动进一步增加，基期轮换也有一定程度的影响。 1月PPI环比 0.4%，同比上行0.5个百分点至-1.4%。我国价格指数每五年进行一次基期轮换，2026年开始为新一轮基 期轮换调整，但对每月PPI同比的影响仅为0.08个百分点。更重要的是，1月铜价涨幅扩大，相应有色采 选、有色压延业价格环比分别5.7%、5.2%， 拉动PPI环比0.5% ，为最强贡献项。钢价对PPI贡献也为 正， 拉动PPI环比0.1%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游PPI表现偏弱。 国际原油价格下行影响国内石油开采、精炼石 油产品制造价格分别下降3.1%和2.5%， 油价拖累PPI环比-0.08% ，煤价也有走弱， 拖累PPI环比-0.15% 。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨 ...

宏观经济分析报告 "反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 ――2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 展望来看，（1）生猪供给仍较充足，猪价或延续低位震荡；春节前鲜菜 价格或再度上涨。（2）油价对 CPI 同环比将转为上拉；（3）春节因素或 带动核心通胀同环比涨幅扩大。综上预计 2026 年 2 月 CPI 同环比涨幅均 扩大。 PPI："反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 2026 年 1 月 PPI 同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。国际定价商品中，输入 性因素继续拖累国内石油相关行业价格；受铜矿供应持续紧缺、AI 投资 扩张等因素影响，有色金属产业链价格继续上行。国内定价商品中，（1） 上游原材料中，"反内卷"持续显效，基础化学原料制造、黑色金属加工 价格由降转涨，煤炭产业链则暂时降温。（2）中游制造业中，除"反内 卷"带动锂离子电池、光伏设备制造等价格由降转涨外，人工智能等数 字化技术加快发展、算力需求增长带动电子设备制造业价格环比上涨。 （3）下游消费品制造业中，春节提振效应明显，礼品和食品等备货需求 增加带动工艺品制造、农副食品加工价格上涨。 展望来看，2 月输入型通胀或有升温；国内定价商品价格的积极因素仍然 是两大方向， ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of inflation in January continues to improve, with CPI year-on-year dropping from 0.8% to 0.2% and core CPI from 1.2% to 0.8%, primarily due to the Spring Festival timing effect, while PPI year-on-year narrowed from -1.9% to -1.4% [2][7]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - CPI year-on-year decreased from 0.8% to 0.2%, mainly influenced by the Spring Festival timing effect, which resulted in a high base from the previous year [14]. - Food prices year-on-year fell from 1.1% to -0.7%, while energy prices dropped from -3.8% to -5% [15]. - Core CPI year-on-year decreased from 1.2% to 0.8%, with core goods prices rising from 2.5% to 2.6%, marking a continuous expansion for nine months [15][19]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - PPI month-on-month increased by 0.4%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, while the year-on-year decline narrowed from -1.9% to -1.4% [23][24]. - The increase in PPI is driven by the construction of a unified national market, which has led to price increases in certain industries such as cement and lithium batteries [24]. - Input factors, including overseas monetary easing and demand from the AI industry, have contributed to the price increases in the non-ferrous metal sector, while oil-related prices have decreased [10][24]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The probability of PPI turning positive year-on-year is expected to increase in the third quarter of this year, driven by continuous improvement in midstream supply and demand [4][8]. - The new price factors for PPI are expected to elevate the overall PPI index, with projections for Q1 to Q4 being approximately -1.2%, -0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively [5][10]. - The impact of input factors and technical factors is anticipated to support the stabilization of PPI prices earlier than previously expected [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the marginal improvement in domestic prices as of January 2025, driven by input factors and anti-involution policies, while still remaining at low levels. It anticipates the potential for expanding domestic demand and monetary easing measures [1][9]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by last year's high base and weak domestic demand [5][10]. - Food prices fell by 0.7% year-on-year, with pork prices down 13.7%, indicating a significant decline in demand [5][10]. - Core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, but this was a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weak service price growth [12]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, but the decline was less severe than in December, indicating a narrowing of the drop [6][21]. - Input factors have led to price increases in upstream industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals, while downstream sectors remain weak due to insufficient demand [21][24]. - The PPI is expected to recover more significantly, driven by anti-involution policies and geopolitical factors affecting commodity prices [8][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article forecasts a moderate recovery in prices, supported by policies such as the "old-for-new" consumption incentive, adjustments in pig production capacity, and international gold price trends [8][9]. - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate demand [27][30]. - The overall economic environment is characterized by a strong supply but weak demand, necessitating continued efforts to stabilize market expectations and enhance domestic momentum [30][31]. Group 4: Pig Cycle Analysis - The pig price in January showed a year-on-year decline of 13.7%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, indicating a potential bottoming out of the cycle [16][17]. - The current pig cycle is still in a downward trend, with production capacity adjustments beginning but not yet sufficient to drive a significant price recovery [16][17]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, which may lead to reduced price volatility in future cycles compared to traditional patterns [18]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's Q4 report emphasizes the need for a flexible and effective monetary policy, with a focus on using tools like interest rate cuts to support economic recovery [27][30]. - There is a notable increase in household deposits moving towards wealth management products, indicating a shift in investment preferences that could impact bank liquidity [29][35]. - Loan interest rates continue to decline, with the weighted average rate at 3.15%, reflecting ongoing efforts to lower financing costs for the economy [29][36]. Group 6: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has strengthened, reaching a midpoint of 6.91 against the USD, creating a favorable environment for capital inflows and policy flexibility [38]. - The anticipated easing of US monetary policy may further enhance China's economic positioning and open up additional policy space [38].

宏 观 研 究 通胀数据 2026 年 02 月 11 日 如何理解 1 月通胀分化？ —— 通胀数据点评（26.01） 事件：2 月 11 日，国家统计局公布 1 月通胀数据，CPI 同比 0.2%、前值 0.8%、预期 0.4%、 环比 0.2%；PPI 同比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比 0.4%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游 PPI 表现偏弱。国际原油价格下行影响国内石油 开采、精炼石油产品制造价格分别下降 3.1%和 2.5%，油价拖累 PPI 环比-0.08%，煤价 也有走弱，拖累 PPI 环比-0.15%。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨价对中 下游的拉动相对有限，测算中下游仅拉动 PPI 环比 0.1%。 受春节错位的影响，1 月 CPI 同比明显回落；但剔除该因素后，CPI 整体仍偏弱。统计局 测算本轮基期轮换对每月 CPI 同比的影响是 0.06 个百分点。今年春节假期与 2025 年形成 错位，导致 1 月同比较前月回落 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%。而 1 月 CPI 环比仅 0.2%、明显低 于往年春节前月的 CPI 表现（0.6%），反映整体 C ...

Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.8% year-on-year[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%[4] Seasonal Effects and Consumer Demand - The January CPI year-on-year drop to 0.2% was influenced by the late timing of the Spring Festival, which typically weakens food price increases[4] - Historical data suggests that seasonal disturbances like this are often corrected in February, indicating potential recovery in CPI[5] Core CPI and Consumer Recovery - The core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.3% marks a six-month high, reflecting improving consumer demand supported by effective consumption policies[4] - Price increases in household goods and services, such as travel and entertainment, indicate a robust recovery in service consumption[4] PPI Trends and Influences - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to -1.4%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, both reaching their highest values since October 2023[4] - Factors contributing to PPI recovery include the "anti-involution" policy and international commodity price increases[4] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economy, and fluctuations in exports[4]

2月5日，山东省统计局、国家统计局山东调查总队联合发布2025年全省经济运行情况解读，聚焦居民消 费价格指数(CPI)运行态势。解读显示，2025年全省居民消费领域价格整体运行平稳，CPI较上年同期下 降0.1%，呈现"稳中有进、结构优化"的特点；随着扩内需促消费政策持续显效，扣除食品和能源价格的 核心CPI持续回升，全年同比上涨0.7%，涨幅较上年扩大0.3个百分点，彰显全省消费市场韧性凸显、民 生保障坚实有力的良好态势。 CPI整体运行平稳，小幅波动符合预期 解读数据明确，2025年全省居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比下降0.1%，价格运行整体平稳，小幅波动符合 全年经济发展和市场供求预期。CPI作为反映居民家庭一般所购买的消费品和服务项目价格水平变动情 况的宏观经济指标，其平稳运行直接关系到居民生活质量和经济社会稳定，此次小幅波动主要受食品、 能源等短期季节性因素影响，不改变消费市场整体稳健的基本面。 其中，多数大宗食品价格同比下降，主要得益于产能供给充足、流通效率提升。鲜菜价格受季节性波动 影响明显，同比下降4.3%，全年供应整体充足，季节性上涨时段价格涨幅温和可控；鸡蛋、猪肉产能 持续恢复，市场供应充 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold prices is expected to enhance the value and appeal of gold jewelry, leading to increased consumer interest and spending [1] Group 1: Gold Jewelry Market - Continued price increases in gold jewelry brands are anticipated, which may strengthen the perception of value and scarcity in gold accessories [1] - The one-price category is expected to maintain strong performance, while the weight-based category may see some recovery [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Leading overseas brands in casual wear and outdoor footwear are experiencing sustained growth, providing stable order sources for suppliers with diverse customer bases [1] - In the current global trade landscape, a globalized layout is viewed as a core capability for manufacturers to ensure stable production capacity and profit margins [1]

Macro and Strategy - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5.0%, showing a "high first, low later" trend, with a significant inverse relationship between GDP growth and price performance [8][9] - The structural transformation in 2025 is positive, with a decline in the growth rate of the secondary industry and an increase in the tertiary industry, which helps alleviate excess supply pressure and supports domestic demand through service sector development [8][9] - The overall domestic demand remains at a historically low level, with insufficient internal demand being a major bottleneck in the economic cycle [8][9] Chemical Industry - The phosphate chemical industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with the wet-process phosphoric acid being the core preparation route, gradually replacing the energy-intensive thermal process [28][29] - Domestic phosphate rock supply is tightening due to strict environmental regulations, leading to a significant reduction in outdated production capacity [28][29] - The demand for phosphate rock is expected to remain robust, with the gross profit margin for leading enterprises around 80%, while the share of wet-process phosphoric acid consumption is projected to increase significantly by 2024 [29][30] Electronic Industry - The LCD panel industry has seen an increase in prices, with the panel index rising by 11.55% since December 2025, outperforming major stock indices [31][32] - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December reached $6.423 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 15.52% [32] - Price increases for various sizes of LCD TV panels are expected to continue into February, driven by strong demand from television brands [33] Agricultural Industry - The price of live pigs is expected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy, with the price recorded at 12.87 yuan/kg as of January 23, 2026 [36] - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery, while the price of yellow chickens is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [36]

#财经专家解析黄金白银深蹲#【巨震给普通投资者敲警钟】#金价史诗级大幅震荡##白银迎来暴跌##黄 金白银一夜跌爆##金价#尚艺基金总经理王峥表示，此次暴跌并非贵金属牛市逻辑的逆转，而是多重因 素下的阶段性获利回吐与情绪宣泄。核心导火索来自美联储最新议息会议，会议维持利率不变，同时释 放出通胀未达目标前不会急于降息的偏鹰信号，削弱了黄金白银的配置吸引力。此外叠加大量获利盘在 利空刺激下集中了结，再加上地缘风险溢价回落、黄金ETF出现连续减持等多重因素。从长期走势来 看，此次调整更像是贵金属牛市中的一次"深蹲"，而非趋势的根本性转向。王峥认为，此次市场巨震给 普通投资者敲响了警钟。高位追高入场的投资者可趁反弹适度减仓；前期低位布局的投资者无需因短期 调整盲目割肉，可耐心等待市场企稳信号，再考虑是否逢低优化仓位。金饰品价格波动较大时，普通消 费者若为日常佩戴，无需纠结短期价格涨跌，择机购买即可；若为投资需求则不建议，因其溢价高、变 现成本大。 ...