Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities forecasts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will record year-on-year changes of -2.9% and -2.0% in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year reading for September has rebounded to -0.3%, although the increase is slightly below market expectations [1] - The core CPI has shown a continuous increase for five months, marking the first time in nearly 19 months that the growth rate has returned to 1% [1] Price Trends - There is a notable divergence in price trends, with durable consumer goods and gold jewelry prices performing well, while service prices remain relatively weak [1] - Looking ahead, the effects of the pig cycle misalignment are expected to gradually weaken, leading to a significant rebound in the CPI year-on-year reading in Q4 of 2025 [1] Future Projections - Under a neutral scenario, the year-end CPI year-on-year reading is expected to reach a peak of around 1.0% [1]

Group 1: Real Estate Sales - The real estate market in first and second-tier cities shows signs of marginal recovery, with new home sales experiencing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed to 3.58% [5][10] - In first-tier cities, the year-on-year decline in new home sales has significantly narrowed to 3.66%, while second-tier cities have seen a positive year-on-year change [5][19] - Second-hand home sales in major cities have generally increased compared to the previous period and last year, with notable growth in most cities [19] Group 2: Investment and Commodity Prices - Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with slight decreases in rebar and cement prices, while glass futures prices have seen a small increase [23][49] - The price index for asphalt has decreased, indicating ongoing weak market demand [23] Group 3: Production and Operating Rates - The operating rates for various industries, including steel mills and asphalt production, have generally increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [34] - The operating rate for oil asphalt has seen a significant increase from 28.1% to 34.9% [3] Group 4: Consumer Activity - Consumer activity shows strong momentum, with subway ridership exceeding seasonal expectations, while automotive consumption and domestic flight operations align with seasonal trends [39] Group 5: Export Trends - The SCFI index has declined, indicating a decrease in container shipping rates, while the BDI index has increased, suggesting a rise in dry bulk shipping rates [43] Group 6: Price Trends - Pork prices have seen a slight increase, while vegetable prices have decreased, and oil prices have risen, reflecting mixed trends in consumer prices [49]