Group 1: Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to rise significantly from 0.2% to around 0.7% year-on-year due to food price fluctuations[3] - Industrial production growth is projected at approximately 5.3% for November, supported by external demand[4] - Exports are anticipated to increase by about 5% year-on-year in dollar terms, with imports also expected to rise by 5%[4] Group 2: Financial Indicators - New social financing is estimated at 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 650 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[6] - M2 growth is expected to be around 8.0%, while M1 is projected to grow by approximately 5.6%[6] - The stock of social financing growth is forecasted to decline to about 8.3%[6] Group 3: Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to fall to around -2.4% for January to November, with real estate investment down by 15.5%[4] - Retail sales growth is projected at 2.6%, with essential consumption growing at 4.0% and subsidy-related items declining by 3.0%[22] - Real estate sales area growth is expected to be around -20% for November, with cumulative growth from January to November at -8.1%[18]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities forecasts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will record year-on-year changes of -2.9% and -2.0% in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year reading for September has rebounded to -0.3%, although the increase is slightly below market expectations [1] - The core CPI has shown a continuous increase for five months, marking the first time in nearly 19 months that the growth rate has returned to 1% [1] Price Trends - There is a notable divergence in price trends, with durable consumer goods and gold jewelry prices performing well, while service prices remain relatively weak [1] - Looking ahead, the effects of the pig cycle misalignment are expected to gradually weaken, leading to a significant rebound in the CPI year-on-year reading in Q4 of 2025 [1] Future Projections - Under a neutral scenario, the year-end CPI year-on-year reading is expected to reach a peak of around 1.0% [1]

Group 1: Real Estate Sales - The real estate market in first and second-tier cities shows signs of marginal recovery, with new home sales experiencing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed to 3.58% [5][10] - In first-tier cities, the year-on-year decline in new home sales has significantly narrowed to 3.66%, while second-tier cities have seen a positive year-on-year change [5][19] - Second-hand home sales in major cities have generally increased compared to the previous period and last year, with notable growth in most cities [19] Group 2: Investment and Commodity Prices - Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with slight decreases in rebar and cement prices, while glass futures prices have seen a small increase [23][49] - The price index for asphalt has decreased, indicating ongoing weak market demand [23] Group 3: Production and Operating Rates - The operating rates for various industries, including steel mills and asphalt production, have generally increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [34] - The operating rate for oil asphalt has seen a significant increase from 28.1% to 34.9% [3] Group 4: Consumer Activity - Consumer activity shows strong momentum, with subway ridership exceeding seasonal expectations, while automotive consumption and domestic flight operations align with seasonal trends [39] Group 5: Export Trends - The SCFI index has declined, indicating a decrease in container shipping rates, while the BDI index has increased, suggesting a rise in dry bulk shipping rates [43] Group 6: Price Trends - Pork prices have seen a slight increase, while vegetable prices have decreased, and oil prices have risen, reflecting mixed trends in consumer prices [49]