Core Viewpoint - The operational data for 4Q25 from China Aircraft Leasing Group (BOCA) indicates a steady expansion in fleet size, driven by the recovery of production capacity from Boeing and Airbus, with a total of 451 owned aircraft as of the end of the quarter [1][2]. Fleet Expansion - The number of owned aircraft increased by 9 units quarter-on-quarter and by 16 units year-on-year, reaching 451 aircraft [1][3]. - In 4Q25, BOCA delivered 16 aircraft and sold 8 aircraft (7 owned and 1 managed), marking a new quarterly high for deliveries since 2024 [3]. - The average age of the owned aircraft remained stable at 5 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.8 years, and fleet utilization maintained at 100% [3]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s financing exceeded $4 billion for the year, potentially setting a new high since 2020, reflecting smoother capital expenditure [2]. - A bond issuance in January 2026 at a coupon rate of 4.375% indicates a decrease in financing costs compared to previous highs [2]. - The projected core Return on Equity (ROE) for 2025/26 is expected to improve to 11% and 12%, respectively, from 10.5% in 2024 [2][4]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global air travel demand continues to rise, with a 5.7% year-on-year increase in Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) reported by IATA for November, including a 7.7% increase in international markets [4]. - The current supply-demand gap in aircraft remains, with rental rates and market values supported despite improvements in production capacity [4]. Valuation and Profit Forecast - The company maintains steady delivery and sale rhythms, with projected net profits of $720 million, $840 million, and $910 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 91, with the stock currently trading at 1.0x the estimated 2026 Price-to-Book ratio and a 4.1% dividend yield [4].