机构：华泰证券 研究员：李健/陈宇轩 中银航空租赁（BOCA）于25 年7 月10 日披露了2Q25 运营数据。上游飞机制造商产能环比修复，2Q25 波音和空客合计交付了320 架飞机，相比1Q25 的266 架有所提升。BOCA 的飞机交付数量环比小幅提升 至13 架（1Q25：11 架），但2Q25 公司出售了14 架飞机，导致自有飞机数量减少1 架至441 架。我们认 为，在资产端，上游产能改善是积极信号，如果可以持续，将有利于公司享受飞机租金上涨带来的收 益，同时便于今年资本开支的投放；在负债端，美联储降息节奏仍然存在不确定性，5 年期美债利率在 3.8-4.2%之间摇摆，如果未来美债利率仍然在高位，可能加大公司25年的负债端压力。我们预计公司25 年核心ROE 为10.6%，与2024 年的10.5%大致持平。维持公司"买入"评级。 上游产能环比改善 飞机交付数量相比1Q25 的11 架略有提升。上半年公司合计出售18 架飞机，平均机龄10.4 年，高于公司 整体自有飞机5 年的平均机龄。当前飞机市场价值较高，我们认为出售高龄飞机的收益率或相对可观， 同时也有益于保持机队年龄的健康。多架飞机出售导致 ...

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings upgraded Avolon's issuer rating from BBB- to BBB, while Moody's raised it from Baa3 to Baa2, both with a "stable" outlook [1][2] - Avolon is recognized as a leading global aircraft leasing company with a high-quality asset portfolio and strong market position [1] - The company's acquisition of CAL and increased unsecured debt ratio have enhanced its financing flexibility [1] Group 2 - Avolon's CFO stated that the higher rating level underscores the robustness of its balance sheet and liquidity, supporting the company's financial strength [2] - As of the end of Q1 2025, Avolon has a fleet size of 1,096 aircraft, making it the second-largest aircraft leasing company globally by fleet size [2] - In Q1 2025, Avolon reported a net profit of $145 million, a 36% year-over-year increase, and achieved record aircraft leasing revenue of $683 million [2]

Technical Analysis - Air Lease Corporation (AL) has reached a key level of support, with its 50-day simple moving average crossing above its 200-day simple moving average, indicating a "golden cross" [1] - A golden cross signifies a potential bullish breakout, formed when a short-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average [1] Golden Cross Stages - The golden cross event consists of three stages: the stock price bottoms out, the shorter moving average crosses above the longer moving average, and the stock maintains upward momentum [2] - The golden cross is contrasted with a death cross, which indicates potential bearish price movement [2] Performance and Outlook - Over the past four weeks, AL has gained 34%, and it currently holds a 2 (Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank, suggesting a potential breakout [3] - The positive earnings outlook for AL is supported by one upward revision in earnings estimates over the past 60 days, with no downward revisions, and an increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [3] Investment Consideration - Given the significant technical indicator and the positive movement in earnings estimates, AL should be considered for a watchlist [4]

点击注册小程序 租赁方面，2024年公司新签署租赁协议或达成租赁意向飞机共48架，包括订单飞机配租、取回飞机转租、 到期续租等。公司通过订单簿成功向航空公司客户交付17架新飞机，同时买入二手飞机2架。飞机交易方 面，公司就50架飞机签署买卖协议，并成功完成25架自有飞机和2架代管飞机出售，创下历史最高纪录。 此外，公司与迪拜航空集团（DAE）达成的17架飞机资产包交易成为年内规模最大的飞机交易之一。公司 在出售飞机的同时成功受托为其中5架飞机提供资产管理服务。 具备优质机队及订单资产，维持畅销机型为主的现代化机队组合 截至2024年底，公司机队共189架飞机，其中包括159架自有飞机和30架代管飞机。按飞机数目计，自有机 队中90%为窄体机型。受益于优质机队资产，除一架涉及俄罗斯航司的飞机外，公司自有机队出租率达 100%。于2024年12月31日，中飞租赁自有机队的平均机龄为8.5年，平均剩余租期为6.1年。飞机采购方 面，公司是全球少数几家可直接向飞机原始制造商（OEMs）采购飞机的租赁商之一。截至2024年底，公 司拥有待交付订单飞机共124架，包括97架空客和27架中国商飞飞机，订单飞机数量达到自有机 ...