Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market [1] Core Insights - Aircraft manufacturers are slowly recovering capacity, but supply chain challenges continue to hinder aircraft supply. As of October 2025, Boeing delivered 493 aircraft and Airbus delivered 585 aircraft this year, with backlogged orders remaining at historically high levels [2][5][6] - Global aviation market demand growth has slowed down, with all regions experiencing a deceleration. The Middle East and Africa saw year-on-year increases of 6.2% and 6.1%, respectively, while North America experienced a slight decline of 0.1%. The Asia-Pacific region's international passenger volume grew by 7.4% year-on-year [2][11][16] - Overall, while aircraft manufacturers' capacity is recovering, it still cannot meet the expanding demand for aircraft. The aircraft leasing industry is expected to benefit from the tight supply-demand situation, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which presents significant growth potential for Chinese aircraft leasing companies [2][40] Summary by Sections 1. Aircraft Supply Continues to be Tight - Boeing's average monthly delivery has significantly improved compared to last year, while Airbus's delivery is slightly better than the same period last year. However, both manufacturers are still far from previous high levels [5] - The backlog of aircraft orders remains at a historical high, with Boeing and Airbus accumulating new orders of 836 and 722 aircraft, respectively, this year [6] 2. Civil Aviation Passenger Demand Update - Global aviation passenger volume continues to grow, but the growth rate has slowed. In September 2025, global revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the global load factor was 83.4%, slightly lower than the previous year [11][16] - Domestic aviation RPK in September grew by 0.9% year-on-year, with Brazil showing a remarkable increase of 12.1% [21][20] 3. Aircraft Leasing Company Dynamics - Chinese aircraft leasing companies are currently valued relatively low compared to global leaders like AerCap, and they possess higher order elasticity, making them worthy of attention [2][38] - As of June 30, 2025, Bohai Leasing had the highest number of owned aircraft at 628, while China Aircraft Leasing had the least at 151 [44]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting strong supply logic and elastic demand, with specific recommendations for several airlines and global aircraft leasing companies [4][104][105]. Core Insights - The global aviation market is experiencing steady recovery, with passenger turnover (RPK) increasing by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by international routes [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing constraints in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, predicting that the trend of aging aircraft will continue for the next 5-10 years, leading to significant supply limitations [4][104]. - Airlines are expected to see substantial improvements in profitability as they approach a pivotal moment in the industry, with a notable increase in international passenger traffic anticipated [4][104]. Summary by Sections Global Aviation Market Overview - The global aviation market is stabilizing, with RPK growth of 4.8% and ASK growth of 4.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, resulting in an overall passenger load factor increase to 83.5% [4][7]. - The Asia-Pacific region leads in RPK growth at 7.7%, while North America shows minimal growth [4][13]. U.S. Aviation Market Tracking - In Q3 2025, U.S. airline ticket sales saw a rebound with domestic passenger volume up by 7.4% and average ticket prices increasing by 4.1% [4][43]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among major U.S. airlines, with Delta Airlines showing significant profit growth while American Airlines reported losses [4][61][69]. European Aviation Market Tracking - The European aviation market has shown steady recovery, with passenger volumes returning to pre-pandemic levels and ticket prices experiencing slight increases [4][74][83]. - Lufthansa reported a 4% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for leisure travel [4][83]. Asian Aviation Market Tracking - Major airports in Southeast Asia and Japan are experiencing continued growth, with passenger volumes surpassing pre-pandemic levels [4][88][94]. - The report highlights the strong recovery in passenger traffic at key transit airports, benefiting from robust demand [4][94]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the aviation sector is at a turning point, with airlines likely to experience a "golden era" of profitability due to increasing international travel and effective capacity management [4][104]. - Specific airline recommendations include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others, with a focus on companies showing continuous improvement in performance [4][104][105].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on October 29, marking the fifth cut since the easing cycle began in September 2024. This presents a favorable financing environment for the capital-intensive aircraft leasing industry, potentially driving a revaluation across the sector. Financial Optimization - The ongoing interest rate cut cycle is improving the financing environment for capital-intensive industries globally. China Aircraft Leasing has effectively seized this opportunity, utilizing its diverse financing channels to optimize costs and reduce leverage. [1] - Since 2025, the company has been active in financing, successfully issuing $160 million in senior unsecured notes with a 4.35 times oversubscription, marking its return to the U.S. dollar bond market since 2021. The initial pricing guidance was 6.4%, which narrowed to a final yield of 6.0%, setting a record for the narrowest spread in its dollar bond history. [1] - In March, the company increased its 2024 warehouse aircraft financing to $700 million, achieving over two times the target subscription amount from 20 top global financial institutions, making it one of the largest syndicate loans in aviation finance history. [2] - In the first half of the year, the company issued a 5-year RMB 1.5 billion corporate bond at a coupon rate of 2.38%, with a 1.73 times oversubscription, effectively lowering its overall financing costs. [2] - The company's leverage ratio improved from 9.1 times at the end of 2024 to 8.4 times in mid-2025, reflecting its successful debt structure optimization. [2] - As of mid-2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of HKD 4.884 billion and unutilized borrowing of HKD 11.228 billion, totaling HKD 16.112 billion, indicating strong liquidity and financial resilience. [2] Credit Strengthening - China Aircraft Leasing is enhancing its financing capabilities and credit ratings, maintaining an AAA rating from two major domestic rating agencies with a stable outlook. [3] Operational Strength - In the first half of 2025, the company made significant progress in asset operations and global expansion, laying a solid foundation for long-term growth. [4] - The company operates a fleet of 181 aircraft, with 151 owned and 30 managed, achieving a balanced development model. Notably, 89% of its owned aircraft are narrow-body models, aligning with strong market demand. [5] - The core owned fleet's utilization rate reached 100%, with an average fleet age of 8.6 years and an average remaining lease term of 5.7 years, ensuring cash flow visibility and operational reliability. [5] - The company signed 21 new aircraft purchase agreements and completed the sale of 19 aircraft and 2 engines in the first half of the year, setting a new record for transactions. [6] - The company has a diverse customer base, with approximately 67% of its owned aircraft leased to Chinese airlines and over 30% to international clients, with expectations for further growth in overseas customer share. [7] Industry Outlook - The aircraft leasing industry is currently experiencing a high-growth cycle, with China Aircraft Leasing positioned well due to its dual advantages in asset and liability management. [8] - A shortage of aircraft and supply-demand imbalance are driving up asset values and leasing yields. Current reports indicate a backlog of over 15,000 aircraft, suggesting it could take over 10 years to meet this demand at a monthly delivery rate of 100 aircraft. [8] - Strong demand is evident, with the national civil aviation sector transporting 19.138 million passengers during the recent holiday period, a 3.2% increase from the previous year. [8] - The global aviation market is seeing a rise in operating lease penetration, with new aircraft rental rates exceeding pre-pandemic levels, creating significant market opportunities for leasing companies. [10] Profitability and Valuation - The interest rate cut cycle is expected to reduce interest expenses for China Aircraft Leasing, enhancing profit margins. A 100 basis point decrease in U.S. dollar interest rates could increase net profit by HKD 134 million. [11] - The company is characterized by high dividends, strong earnings elasticity, and low valuation, making it an attractive investment. [12] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, totaling HKD 89.8 million, resulting in a dynamic dividend yield of 6.6% based on the current share price of HKD 4.53. [13] - The company's price-to-book ratio is currently 0.8, indicating potential for valuation recovery as earnings grow and leverage decreases, which could lead to improved credit ratings and financing costs. [13] - Several investment institutions have expressed optimism about the company, with target prices set at HKD 5.87 and HKD 6.00, reflecting a positive outlook on its performance. [14]

Core Insights - AerCap reported $2.31 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, an 18.5% year-over-year increase, with EPS of $4.97 compared to $2.41 a year ago [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.01 billion by 15.02%, and the EPS surpassed the consensus estimate of $3.16 by 57.28% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Basic lease rents amounted to $1.69 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $1.67 billion from two analysts [4] - Maintenance rents and other receipts totaled $203.59 million, exceeding the average estimate of $170.25 million [4] - Other income was reported at $83.03 million, higher than the estimated $76.38 million [4] - Net gain on sale of assets reached $332.02 million, significantly above the average estimate of $94.69 million [4] - Total lease revenue was $1.89 billion, compared to the estimated $1.84 billion [4] Stock Performance - AerCap's shares have remained unchanged over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by 3.8% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential outperformance against the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - AerCap reported quarterly earnings of $4.97 per share, significantly exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.16 per share, and up from $2.41 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +57.28% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $2.31 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.02%, compared to $1.95 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - AerCap's stock has increased by approximately 26.4% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 17.2% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $3.36, with expected revenues of $2.07 billion, and for the current fiscal year, the EPS estimate is $12.98 on revenues of $8.04 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for AerCap was favorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Transportation - Equipment and Leasing industry, to which AerCap belongs, is currently ranked in the top 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook for stocks within this sector [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Core Insights - The aircraft leasing industry plays a crucial role in connecting aviation operators with financial capital, with a global fleet of 13,517 aircraft managed by leasing companies as of the end of 2024 [1][5][6] - Narrow-body aircraft dominate the leasing market, comprising 72.8% of the total fleet, with increasing demand driven by economic growth and urbanization [1][6] - The top ten global leasing companies hold a significant market share, with AerCap leading at 1,728 aircraft, followed by other major players like SMBC Aviation and Avolon [1][7][8] Aircraft Leasing Overview - Aircraft leasing involves airlines selecting specific models and quantities of aircraft from leasing companies, signing agreements to transfer usage rights in exchange for rental payments [2][5] - The two primary leasing types are dry leasing (providing only the aircraft) and wet leasing (providing the aircraft along with crew) [3] Market Status - In 2024, 607 commercial aircraft were delivered to leasing companies, representing 55% of total deliveries, with a significant portion attributed to new aircraft sold back to lessors [5][6] - The global leasing fleet is concentrated in Europe, North America, and China, with respective holdings of 3,557, 2,186, and 1,918 aircraft as of the end of 2024 [6][7] Order Volume - The global leasing aircraft order volume for 2024 reached 2,892 aircraft, valued at $163.46 billion, with China accounting for 800 orders, making it the second-largest market after Ireland [1][8] Industry Trends - Future trends in the aircraft leasing industry include digital operations, green finance, dominance of domestic aircraft models, and innovation in leasing models [9][10]

Core Insights - The company reported operational results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, with a total portfolio of 812 aircraft and engines, including owned, managed, and ordered units [1] - The average age of the 442 owned aircraft is 5.0 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.8 years [1] - The company no longer serves as a provider for 15 aircraft, resulting in a managed fleet that now includes 17 aircraft [1] - The order book consists of 343 aircraft, and the customer base for owned and managed fleets spans 88 airlines across 46 countries and regions [1] - The utilization rate for owned aircraft remains at 100% [1] Transaction Summary - In the third quarter of 2025, the company executed 34 transactions, which included commitments to purchase 3 aircraft, delivery of 11 aircraft, and sale of 10 owned aircraft [1] - The company signed 10 lease commitments and issued a $500 million 5.5-year bond with an annual coupon rate of 4.25%, which is 58 basis points above the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield, marking a record low for the company's bond spread [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings Limited (中银航空租赁) reported its operational performance for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, highlighting a robust portfolio and significant transactions during the period [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - The company has a total portfolio of 812 owned, managed, and ordered aircraft and engines [1] - The average age of the 442 owned aircraft is 5.0 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.8 years [1] - The managed fleet now includes 17 aircraft, following the cessation of service for 15 aircraft [1] - The order book consists of 343 aircraft, and the customer base spans 88 airlines across 46 countries and regions [1] - The utilization rate of owned aircraft remains at 100% [1] Group 2: Transactions and Financials - In the third quarter of 2025, the company executed 34 transactions, which included commitments to purchase 3 aircraft, delivery of 11 aircraft, and sale of 10 owned aircraft [1] - The company signed 10 lease commitments and issued a $500 million bond with a 5.5-year term at an annual coupon rate of 4.25%, which is 58 basis points above the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield, marking a record low for the company's bond spread [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 BOC AVIATION LIMITED 中銀航空租賃有限公司* （於新加坡共和國註冊成立的有限公司） 股份代號：2588 截至2025年9月30日止第三季度營運資料 中銀航空租賃有限公司（「本公司」）公佈其截至2025年9月30日止第三季度的營運交 易情況。 投資組合及交易概要 * 僅供識別 – 1 – | 資產類型 | 自有 | 代管 | 已訂購2 | 總數 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 空客A220系列 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 23 | | 空客A320CEO系列 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 64 | | 空客A320NEO系列 | 148 | 0 | 211 | 359 | | 空客A330CEO系列 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | | 空客A330NEO系列 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | | 空客A350系列 | 9 | 0 | 0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The aircraft leasing industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand dynamic, leading to rising aircraft values and rental rates, with strong demand for leasing continuing amidst supply chain constraints and skilled labor shortages [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Aircraft manufacturers are facing production capacity limitations due to supply chain issues, skilled labor shortages, and raw material supply disruptions, while demand for aircraft remains robust [1]. - The tightening supply-demand situation is expected to benefit leading aircraft leasing companies, which are experiencing stable aircraft deliveries during this upcycle [1]. Group 2: Company Strengths - The company has a strong management team with over 26 years of experience in banking, leasing, and aviation, which enhances its fleet management capabilities and helps mitigate cyclical risks in the aviation industry [1]. - The company has maintained profitability for 31 consecutive years since its establishment, with a steady growth trend in aircraft business revenue, primarily driven by operating lease rental income, which has consistently accounted for over 70% of total revenue [1]. Group 3: Financial Position - Backed by its major shareholder, Bank of China, the company enjoys significant financing cost advantages and strong capital acquisition capabilities, with a high credit rating relative to peers [1][2]. - Approximately 30% of the company's debt consists of floating-rate bonds, positioning it to benefit from potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 4: Performance Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $2.533 billion, $2.668 billion, and $2.817 billion for the years 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.9%, +5.3%, and +5.6% respectively [2]. - Projected net profits for the same period are $699 million, $766 million, and $840 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -24.31%, +9.56%, and +9.66% respectively [2]. - The company’s target price is set at HKD 91.70, with a target price-to-book ratio of 1.20x for 2025, reflecting an anticipated improvement in valuation amid favorable industry conditions and reduced financing costs [2].