机构：华泰证券 研究员：李健/陈宇轩 中银航空租赁（BOCA）1H25 年税后净利润3.42 亿美元，可比口径同比上涨20%，基本符合Bloomberg 一致预期的3.37 亿美元。上半年行业环境逐步改善，上游飞机制造商产能开始修复，行业飞机总交付量 同比增加12%。 飞机产能修复一方面推动了公司资本开支同比提升150%达到19 亿美元；另一方面使得公司逐渐享受到 租金上涨的好处，1H25 资产端收益率同比提升50bps 至10.3%，带动净经营租赁收益率（NLY）同比提 升50bps 至7.5%，年化核心ROE 达到10.6%，同比提升1.0pct。我们预计产能修复短期内无法扭转飞机 供不应求现状，飞机租金和市场价值有望上涨。我们认为上游产能改善释放积极信号，将有利于公司享 受飞机租金上涨带来的收益，并将支撑未来的资本开支投放和机队扩张；另外近期美联储降息预期升温 可能部分缓解公司负债端压力。维持"买入"评级。 飞机制造商产能逐步修复 在供给修复的背景下，公司积极扩张机队并优化资产结构。1H25 飞机交付数量24 架（1H24：18 架），资本开支达到19 亿美元，同比增加150%，创2020 年以来半年度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's net profit after tax for 1H25 was USD 342 million, a year-on-year increase of 20%, aligning closely with Bloomberg's consensus estimate of USD 337 million [1] - The aviation leasing industry is gradually improving, with aircraft manufacturers' production capacity starting to recover, leading to a 12% year-on-year increase in total aircraft deliveries [2] - The company is expected to benefit from rising rental prices and market values due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the aircraft leasing market [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's capital expenditure increased by 150% year-on-year to USD 1.9 billion, the highest semi-annual figure since 2020 [3] - The net lease yield (NLY) improved by 50 basis points year-on-year to 7.5%, driven by the sale of older, low-yield aircraft and the introduction of higher-yield new models [4] Market Outlook - The global demand for air travel is expected to continue recovering, with IATA projecting a 5.8% increase in global RPK for 2025, supporting the leasing market [2] - The report anticipates that the total value of new aircraft deliveries globally will reach USD 100 billion in 2025, the highest since 2019 [2] Capital Expenditure and Growth - The company has a total aircraft order reserve of 351 aircraft, with committed capital expenditure reaching USD 20 billion [3] - The company aims to achieve an asset scale growth target of USD 40 billion by 2030 [3] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to USD 710 million, USD 800 million, and USD 830 million respectively, with target price raised to HKD 85 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - 中银航空租赁（BOCA） reported a slight increase in aircraft deliveries in 2Q25, with a total of 13 aircraft delivered compared to 11 in 1Q25, while the total number of owned aircraft decreased to 441 due to the sale of 14 aircraft [1][2] Group 1: Operational Performance - In 2Q25, BOCA executed 75 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and the sale of 14 aircraft, resulting in a net decrease of 1 owned aircraft [2] - The company maintains a strong order book with 351 aircraft on order, supporting long-term growth despite a decrease in owned aircraft [2] - The utilization rate of the fleet remains stable at 100%, with an average remaining lease term of 7.9 years [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The recovery of upstream aircraft manufacturers' production capacity is a positive signal, with Boeing and Airbus delivering a total of 320 aircraft in 2Q25, up from 266 in 1Q25 [1] - Despite improvements in aircraft supply, demand for air travel continues to rise, with global revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 5% year-on-year in May, indicating ongoing pressure on aircraft availability and rental rates [2] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company expects a core ROE of 10.6% for 2025, roughly in line with 10.5% in 2024, reflecting stable operational performance [1][2] - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are maintained at USD 700 million, USD 790 million, and USD 800 million respectively, with a target price of HKD 82 based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.06x for 2025 [3]