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中国广核(003816):核电资产注入在即;电价探底提供布局机会
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-30 03:18
Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) reported its 1H25 performance, with revenue and profit showing slight declines compared to the previous year, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue decreased by 0.5% year-on-year to 39.2 billion yuan, while profit fell by 16.3% to 5.95 billion yuan. In 2Q25, revenue dropped by 5.2% to 19.1 billion yuan, and profit decreased by 16.5% to 2.93 billion yuan [1]. - The average financing cost for the company in 1H25 was 2.64%, down 39 basis points from 2024. Financial expenses decreased by 8.8% to 2.28 billion yuan, with the financial expense ratio down by 0.5 percentage points to 5.8% [2]. Electricity Pricing and Volume - The average market transaction price for electricity in 1H25 fell by 3.2 cents to 0.36 yuan per kilowatt-hour, remaining stable compared to the first quarter. In Guangdong, the average price was approximately 0.33 yuan per kilowatt-hour, down 6.5 cents year-on-year [1]. - The company completed 8 annual overhauls and 2 ten-year overhauls in the first half of the year, with total overhaul days at 414, a reduction of 109 days year-on-year. This led to an 8.8% increase in online electricity volume to 89.3 billion kilowatt-hours [1]. Development Trends - The company plans to acquire equity in four companies for 9.4 billion yuan, which includes four under-construction and approved units, potentially enriching its operational and construction unit portfolio. The acquisition includes 82% of Huizhou Nuclear Power and 100% of Huizhou Second, Huizhou Third, and Zhanjiang Nuclear Power [2]. - The company has not yet initiated the acquisition of Cangnan Phase I due to various factors, with expected operational dates for Cangnan units 1 and 2 around 2026 and 2027 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-26 down by 10.9% and 13.5% to 9.6 billion yuan. The current A-share price corresponds to a 20.2 times and 20.1 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025-26, while the H-share price corresponds to 14.5 times and 14.2 times [2]. - The company maintains a positive outlook on the long-term stable dividend investment value of high-quality nuclear power assets, with target prices for A/H shares remaining unchanged at 5.07 yuan and 3.59 HKD, indicating potential upside of 33% and 20% respectively [2].
中国广核(003816):量增价减影响利润表现,资产注入保障远期成长
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed a slight decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to increased generation but decreased electricity prices, leading to reduced gross profit from electricity sales [7] - The company has a significant number of nuclear power units under construction, which is expected to support future growth, and the reduction in financing costs due to interest rate cuts will help alleviate financial pressure [7] - The planned acquisition of nuclear power assets from the group is anticipated to inject further growth momentum into the company [7] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to significant price declines in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions and the expiration of tax incentives [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 85,690 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10,172 million in 2025, reflecting a decline of 5.9% year-on-year [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is forecasted at 0.20 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 19 [6] - The company managed to reduce financial expenses by 8.78% in the first half of 2025, amounting to 22.82 million [7]