有关黑天鹅的事情我以前说过很多次。马云跟你玩梭哈，你把把拿AA。这肯定有90%的胜率。赔率是2，那根据凯乐公式，下注86%资金就是最大ev。如果你怕波动，可以只下注40%，如果你胆小如鼠，也应该下注10%-20%的资金，这是明显的送钱机会。在币圈大量穿仓，极速下跌的时候，大量adl订单出现后，抄底胜率近乎100%，一定有大反弹。而跌的越多，胜率也越高，赔率也越大。所以应该下注的仓位也越大。如果你实在没经验，可以分批，可以1分钟买5%资金，最多只买30%。最后说一句，我在币圈仓位占比最大的时候都是黑天鹅的时候，因为我觉得这时候是胜率最大，赔率最大的时候，如果你不猛猛下注，只能说你不相信数学。不敢下注，只有恐惧，相信科学，自然会疯狂下注。（当然，最好不加杠杆） ...

Market Analysis - Two new addresses appeared in the top 10 holders of PUMP on HYPE yesterday afternoon, while the other eight were profitable traders with millions of dollars in gains [1] - HYPE held $250 million in positions yesterday afternoon, while Binance held $60 million, suggesting potential arbitrage activity [2] - After accounting for potential fake positions on HYPE and arbitrageurs on Binance, there is an estimated $200 million in real positions likely to participate in the new offering [2] - A large number of arbitrageurs are expected to participate in the new offering, reducing the number of naked shorts [2] - The potential total commitment for the new offering is estimated at $300-400 million, suggesting it will be oversubscribed [2] - Oversubscription is expected to drive up the price due to FOMO (fear of missing out) in the secondary market [2] - The offering should have been completed in 2-3 minutes instead of 14 minutes if there were no exchange issues [2]

Market Sentiment & Investment Dreams - The narrative highlights the prevalence of "A9" dreams (likely referring to significant financial gains in crypto) among retail investors, fueled by promises of quick riches [2][5] - The father's desire to achieve "A9" status reflects a broader societal aspiration for financial success and a fear of missing out (FOMO) on investment opportunities [5] - The story underscores the influence of crypto influencers ("喊单老师") and online communities in shaping investment decisions, particularly among less experienced individuals [2][3] Risk & Reality in Crypto - The text implicitly critiques the high-risk nature of crypto investments, particularly leveraged trading ("合约") and meme coins, emphasizing the potential for significant losses [2][5] - The father's belief in "梭哈就能赢" (going all-in) highlights a lack of understanding of risk management and the complexities of the crypto market [2] - The mention of "Web3的泡沫" (Web3 bubble) suggests a concern about the sustainability of current valuations and the potential for market corrections [2] Generational Perspectives - The narrative contrasts the younger generation's understanding of crypto complexities (e g, "Cabal," "金狗," "福报空投") with the older generation's simpler, more optimistic view [2][5] - The father's regret about missing out on early Bitcoin opportunities reflects a common sentiment among those who did not participate in previous market booms [6] - The son's willingness to invest his remaining 135 USD and 25 USD experience gold into his father's dream shows a generational dynamic of support and understanding, despite differing perspectives on risk [5]