1. 今天回到3.9星后，主动优选组合也回到了正常估值，暂停发车。 月薪宝 （点击查看）还在低估，但距离正常估值很接近。 月薪宝底层股票部分，偏红利低波等价值风格，还有一些在低估，距离正常估值比较近。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，大盘回到3.9星。 这也是2023年以来，大盘首次回到3点几星。 也是咱们估值表日更以来，经历的第4轮3点几星（2015年的1星，2017年底、2021年初）。 2017年底、2021年初的3点几星，都是持续了几个月到大半年时间。 其实在2025年3季度，港股就率先进入到3点几星了。 A股4季度回调了一些，但最近两周连续上涨，非常强势，也回到了3.9星。 大中小盘股都上涨。 今天价值风格也出现上涨，自由现金流周一回到正常估值，周二继续上涨。 成长风格也上涨，其中科创板比较强势，创业板微涨。 港股也整体上涨。 恒生科技等领涨，也回到了正常估值。 其中，指数增强组合可能会先到高估（参考中证800市盈率，大约19倍到高估）。 出现类似机会，也会有止盈发车。 另外之前定投的单个指数基金，也陆续有一些接近高估。例如中证1000等。 如果再涨涨也会回到正 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a withdrawal strategy for profit-taking, suggesting a method where investors sell portions of their holdings based on specific drawdown thresholds [1][3] - It emphasizes the importance of not being overly greedy and highlights the risks of market corrections that can erase profits [3] - New investors are advised to take profits at a 15% gain, as securing profits is deemed more prudent than holding out for higher returns [5] Group 2 - The article differentiates between short-term and long-term bond funds, noting that short-term bond funds have minimal volatility and are suitable for conservative investors [5] - Long-term bond funds offer higher expected annual returns but require careful timing for investment, particularly in relation to government bond yields [7] - The article warns that long-term bonds may be negatively impacted if stock markets continue to rise, leading to capital flight from bonds [7] Group 3 - The consumer sector experienced volatility, initially rising due to a positive CPI report but later declining after disappointing retail sales data [8][10] - The CPI increase was attributed to seasonal spending during holidays rather than a genuine recovery in consumer demand [10] - The article suggests that the consumer sector has underperformed compared to technology and cyclical sectors, indicating potential for value recovery [10][12] Group 4 - It is recommended to focus on sectors supported by government policies, such as tourism, education, and consumer goods, to identify investment opportunities [12] - The overall investment strategy should prioritize a disciplined approach, including gradual accumulation in the consumer sector rather than aggressive positions [12]

Market Overview - The overall market experienced a decline, with a rating of 4.2 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks saw less decline compared to small and mid-cap stocks [2] - The market continues to exhibit style rotation, with significant drops in growth style stocks [3][4] - The ChiNext and STAR Market fell by 4% recently [5] Style Performance - Growth style stocks faced substantial declines, while value style stocks remained relatively stable [6] - Recently, previously underperforming "old economy stocks" have shown an overall increase [7] - Indices focusing on value, dividends, and free cash flow have seen overall gains [8] - The 300 Value Index has returned from undervaluation to normal levels [9] Investment Opportunities - There are still some undervalued sectors, particularly in consumer industries, that have started to gain traction [11][13] - The Hong Kong market reflects similar trends, with stable dividends and declines in technology growth stocks, which have not yet returned to undervaluation [14][16] - The volatility in the Hong Kong market has been greater than in the A-share market this year [17] Investment Strategies - The investment strategy includes a pause on regular investments in the index-enhanced advisory portfolio as it has returned to normal valuation, with plans to resume when it returns to undervaluation [20] - The active selection portfolio continues regular investments, while the monthly salary investment portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation [20] - The monthly salary portfolio features a "low buy high sell" strategy and a cash flow distribution function [20] Fund Performance - The performance of the China A500 and China Dividend indices has returned to normal valuation, with plans to pause investments until they reach undervaluation again [26] - The China A500 has achieved a profit of 22%, while the China Dividend index has seen a profit of approximately 6% [26] - The article emphasizes the importance of patience in long-term investments, highlighting that opportunities will continue to arise [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment strategies and managing psychological pressures in the context of market volatility, encouraging long-term investment rather than trying to time the market perfectly [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The discussion highlights that many investors struggle with the concept of buying low and selling high, suggesting that long-term investment is preferred over constant trading [4]. - It is noted that achieving target returns is more important than trying to perfectly time market entry and exit points, as very few investors can accurately predict market tops and bottoms [4]. - The article introduces a feature in the 天天基金 APP that allows users to set profit-taking targets, which can help preserve gains during market fluctuations [5]. Group 2: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) - The article presents findings from a quantitative analysis of index funds over 15 years, revealing that DCA does not necessarily yield higher returns compared to a lump-sum investment, and may even result in lower returns in some cases [7]. - It identifies that DCA can alleviate psychological pressure associated with large investments, even if the returns are not significantly higher [7]. - The article outlines that DCA is particularly effective in volatile or declining markets, where accumulating shares at lower prices can lead to better outcomes during market recoveries [8]. Group 3: Profit-Taking and Market Conditions - The article discusses the importance of setting profit-taking targets based on market conditions, suggesting that different strategies may apply to broad market indices versus high-growth sectors [11]. - It is recommended that investors consider lower profit-taking targets for broad market indices, while higher targets may be appropriate for high-growth sectors that experience significant price increases based on future expectations [11]. - The article concludes with insights on maintaining a balanced approach to investing, emphasizing that investment is just one aspect of life and encouraging practices that reduce anxiety [12][13].

Price Targets - The document suggests two potential take-profit price points for a cryptocurrency or token [1] - First take-profit target is around 2.088 (currency unspecified) for "MC chasing peak PUMP" [1] - Second take-profit target is around 2.66 (currency unspecified) if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) reaches 1/4 of Binance Coin (BNB)'s value [1] Market Analysis - The document implies a speculative trading strategy based on market momentum ("PUMP") [1] - The document uses Binance Coin (BNB) as a benchmark for valuation [1]

Trading Strategy - Suggests taking profit on Bybit positions as the price is unlikely to return to previous levels [1] - Indicates the analysis is based on pre-market contract data [1] Market Analysis - Refers to pure data analysis of pre-market contracts [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that trading strategies and tactics are interconnected, and there is no isolated buy or sell action, only an acceptable plan [1] - A reasonable risk-reward ratio should be at least 2:1, meaning a 7% stop-loss should correspond to a 14% profit expectation [1] - For breakout buying, if there is no floating profit within five trading days, it may indicate a wrong choice, and a stop-loss should be considered at a 3-5% loss [1] Group 2 - After achieving a floating profit of over 8%, three tactical options are available: using a 7-8% retracement as a stop-loss threshold, calculating a moving stop-loss based on the breakout candle, or employing the TR holding line as a stop-loss threshold [3] - A stable strong trend stock typically will not easily breach the TR holding line, and when it does, selling can be done in batches or all at once [5] - For most stocks outside of leading stocks, selling a portion of the position after achieving a 20% floating profit is often a good choice, as excessive greed can lead to profit loss [6] Group 3 - The volume-weighted moving average is superior in support and sensitivity compared to EMA and SMA, and practical comparisons are encouraged [8] - Momentum divergence remains an essential technique in selling strategies, with VAD and BIAS indicators being particularly useful for identifying buy and sell timing [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses strategies for managing investment portfolios, particularly focusing on automatic profit-taking mechanisms in advisory portfolios [2][3]. - It highlights two scenarios for profit-taking: when certain assets are overvalued while others are undervalued, and when the overall market is deemed overvalued [2][3]. - The article mentions a feature of the advisory portfolio that allows for automatic rebalancing, which helps investors to take profits from overvalued assets and reinvest in undervalued ones without manual intervention [2][3]. Group 2 - The process of profit-taking involves gradually converting investments from a stock and fund combination to a more stable bond fund combination as market valuations increase [3][4]. - The article indicates that the conversion will be executed in phases, with a larger proportion being converted as market valuations rise, ultimately transitioning to a conservative investment strategy when the market is fully overvalued [4]. - It provides a call to action for readers to engage with a course assistant for detailed guidance on setting up automatic profit-taking strategies [4][5].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently broken a nearly decade-long high, but experienced a significant pullback today, dropping by 1.76%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.69%. Despite this, the trading volume in both markets remained high at 3.17 trillion yuan [1] - The market seems to have entered a "buy on dips" mode, where slight adjustments quickly attract capital inflows, although today saw a notable late-session sell-off that disrupted this trend [1] Market Dynamics - The market has shown two significant changes: a faster pace of increase, shifting from gradual to rapid gains, and a rotation of popular sectors from high-tech fields like AI and robotics to undervalued sectors such as consumer goods, livestock, liquor, and chemicals, which aligns with characteristics of a bull market [3] - This bull market differs from previous ones, as it lacks signs of retail investor frenzy, such as massive fund sales or a surge in new retail accounts. Instead, the driving force appears to be institutional capital and high-net-worth individuals participating through private equity funds [3] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment remains cautious, with no signs of excessive enthusiasm. While some new investors are entering the market, there is no large-scale inquiry about investment directions. Long-term fund investors are considering redemption or profit-taking, indicating that as the market improves, redemption pressure on public funds increases [4] - The rapid growth of China's ETF market, expanding from 4 trillion to 5 trillion yuan in just four months, reflects active participation from institutional investors [4] Investment Strategies - In light of the market adjustment, investors are advised to consider their selling strategies carefully. The bull market has not yet peaked, and significant adjustments are normal. Investors should act decisively to avoid missing opportunities [4] - Suggested profit-taking strategies include setting clear profit targets (e.g., selling after an 8% or 10% gain), prioritizing the sale of underperforming funds, and making decisions based on market conditions, despite the difficulty in predicting market tops [4][5] - For hesitant investors, partial profit-taking and optimizing portfolio structure by reducing the number of funds held are recommended, with an emphasis on maintaining appropriate position management over merely pursuing profit-taking [5]

Report Core View - The success in the futures market lies in long - term survival rather than short - term huge profits. Traders should be aware of the risk of profit retracement and adopt a modest and retreat strategy when making profits [2][3] - To prevent profit retracement, one should use stop - loss as a shield, position as a formation, discipline as an order, and self - reflection as a teacher [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Summary According to Related Catalog - The futures market is volatile, and investors often pursue high - leverage and heavy - position trading at the beginning, ignoring the risk of profit retracement and the need for stop - profit rules, which can lead to losses [2] - History shows that wise people like Zhang Liang and Tang He knew when to retreat. In the futures market, traders should learn from them and think about the risk of retracement during profitable periods [3]