1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton adjusted slightly this week. The situation between the US and Iran suppressed Zhengzhou cotton prices. Domestic policies are stable with a loosening tendency. The textile industry has entered the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", but the recovery of orders is slow. Downstream demand is mainly for replenishing inventory as needed, and the acceptance of high - priced cotton is low. The inventory of cotton yarn is slowly decreasing, and the cost - transmission channel is blocked. In terms of industrial fundamentals, domestic new cotton sales are coming to an end, industrial and commercial inventories are lower than the same period last year, and inventory pressure is gradually easing. The expectation of a significant reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season continues to ferment, providing support for cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices are difficult to break the oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, with the start of spring sowing and the gradual realization of peak - season demand, the price center is expected to move up steadily [52]. - Internationally, the global macro - environment is oscillating. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index is at a high level, suppressing the valuation of commodities. Overseas textile demand is recovering weakly, and the operating rate of Southeast Asian textile enterprises is low. The international cotton market is under pressure. In terms of industrial fundamentals, the export progress of US cotton is slow, and overseas purchasing willingness is low. There is insufficient momentum for the short - term rebound of overseas cotton prices [52]. - The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Spot Price**: This week, the cotton price index declined. The 3128 index decreased by 130 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index also decreased by 130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Cotton Import Situation**: In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year [20]. - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: In the first half of February, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.5037 million tons, and the commercial inventory reached a turning point [21]. - **Downstream Inventory Situation**: In January, the yarn inventory was 21.71 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.05 days. The grey fabric inventory was 33.13 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 days [28]. - **Yarn Price**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of open - end spun 10 - count cotton yarn remained the same as last week, the price of carded 32 - count cotton yarn increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of combed 40 - count cotton yarn increased by 230 yuan/ton compared with last week [33]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 227. The number of warehouse receipts was 11,390, the valid forecast was 1,253, and the total was 12,643 [38]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase Situation**: The report shows the trend of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices, but no specific summary data is provided [41]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of February 26, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the current year increased by 150,000 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 54,600 bales [46]. - **US Weather Situation**: The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US is 21.0%, moderate drought is 25.3%, severe drought is 14.8%, extreme drought is 5.5%, and exceptional drought is 0.3%. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 45.9% [49]. 3.2后市展望 - Domestically, short - term cotton prices are in an oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, the price center is expected to move up steadily. Internationally, the international cotton market is under pressure, and there is insufficient momentum for the short - term rebound of overseas cotton prices. The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips [52][53].