研究所 郑棉上方承压 新棉逐步上市 ——国信期货棉花周报 2025年10月12日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 郑棉本周小幅反弹，周度涨幅0.83%。ICE期棉延续弱势，周跌幅1.45%。 1、现货价格 研究所 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 2020年1月 2021年1月 2022年1月 2023年1月 2024 年1月 2025年1月 中国棉花价格指数:229 中国棉花价格指数:328 本周棉花价格指数上涨。3128指数较上周上涨17元/吨，2129指数较上周上涨4元/吨。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 2、棉花进口情况 研究所 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 50,0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company is steadily advancing its globalization strategy, optimizing its production capacity both domestically and internationally. Key projects include the "50,000 spindles high-end ecological yarn spinning and dyeing project" in Vietnam and the "20,000 spindles high-quality wool yarn construction project" in Yinchuan, which are expected to enhance its global industrial layout [2][3]. - The company has initiated a "key customer strategy" to systematically manage high-value clients, aiming to understand their needs better and provide customized solutions, thereby establishing long-term stable partnerships [3]. - The financial performance shows a slight decrease in revenue for Q2 2025, with a revenue of 1.5 billion and a net profit of 170 million, both down by 0.4% year-on-year. However, for the first half of 2025, revenue was 2.6 billion, a slight decrease of 0.08%, while net profit increased by 1.7% to 270 million [1][4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 5.1 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.2 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 440 million, 490 million, and 540 million [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10, 9, and 9 times, respectively, indicating a stable valuation outlook [4][5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 4.6 billion, with a current price of 6.31 yuan per share [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural cooperation between China and Tajikistan, particularly in cotton production, has significantly improved local livelihoods and transformed the industry from raw material export to high-value product export [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - The cotton yield in Tajikistan has increased from approximately 100 kilograms per mu to over 400 kilograms per mu due to the implementation of Chinese agricultural technology [2]. - The establishment of the Dangara Agricultural Textile Industrial Park has created a full industrial chain from cotton planting to garment production, enhancing local employment and income [1][2]. Group 2: Local Impact - Local residents, including young people, are benefiting from professional training and stable employment opportunities, reducing the need to migrate for work [2]. - The presence of the industrial park has fostered a sense of pride among local workers, who now view employment in the park as a prestigious opportunity [2][3]. Group 3: Skills Development - Workers in the industrial park are gaining valuable skills, with many transitioning from manual labor to technical roles, thanks to training provided by Chinese experts [3]. - The involvement of women in the workforce has increased, with many women now pursuing careers in textile and garment production, which was previously uncommon [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, with the upcoming seed - cotton purchase, the expected purchase price is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face significant hedging pressure above 14,000 yuan/ton, while there is insufficient motivation for hedging below 13,000 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" in consumption is lackluster, and the downstream profits are poor, so the cotton price is expected to turn weak. [53] - Internationally, the cotton price has risen and then fallen. The impact of the US dollar interest - rate cut is not positive. However, the expected 3 interest - rate cuts in the US in 2025 by mainstream institutions may boost the cotton market later. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report has little impact on the market. The US cotton export data has improved, and the consumption provides some support, so the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures weakened this week with a weekly decline of 1.01%, while ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.03% [11] - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 62 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Cotton Imports**: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21] - **Cotton Inventory**: At the end of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 338,500 tons compared with the first half of August [25] - **Downstream Inventory**: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [30] - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S and C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S increased by 60 yuan/ton [35] - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 567, with 4438 warehouse receipts and 12 valid forecasts, totaling 4450 [41] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of September 11, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 19,000 bales [44] - **US Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the US is 34.2%, with different drought levels covering different percentages of the country [50] 3.2后市展望 - Domestic cotton is expected to turn weak, while international cotton is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with attention to be paid to macro - level changes [53]

Group 1 - Xinjiang has focused on high-quality economic development, leveraging its resource advantages to establish itself as a key energy and resource strategic support base, with an industrial output value expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2024, creating over 20,000 new jobs [2] - The cotton and textile industry has become a significant livelihood and pillar industry in Xinjiang, with an average monthly salary of 3,500 yuan for skilled workers, and the industry expected to generate over 3 billion yuan in industrial output annually [3] - Since the 18th National Congress, Xinjiang has seen a rise in employment, reaching 13.91 million in 2024, an increase of 1.45 million since 2012, with urban and rural per capita disposable incomes growing significantly [3] Group 2 - Major infrastructure projects have been developed in Xinjiang, including the 825-kilometer railway from Hotan to Ruoqiang, which has significantly reduced travel distances for local residents [4] - The region has committed over 75% of its fiscal spending to improve people's livelihoods, addressing key issues such as healthcare, education, and housing [4] - Environmental improvements have been prioritized, with the goal of achieving a 90% good air quality rate in the Tianshan North Slope urban cluster by 2024, alongside significant reductions in PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations [5] Group 3 - The southern region of Xinjiang is being activated as a key development area, with infrastructure improvements such as the 750 kV power transmission project enhancing connectivity and supporting economic growth [6] - The implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative has strengthened Xinjiang's external trade, with the Kashgar Free Trade Zone seeing 81% of its reform tasks completed and a significant increase in registered enterprises [6] - Xinjiang's GDP is projected to reach 2,053.408 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1%, reflecting the positive impact of coordinated regional development strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a people-centered approach in promoting development in Xinjiang, highlighting the significant improvements in the quality of life for various ethnic groups in the region since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [2][8]. Economic Development - Xinjiang has accelerated high-quality economic development by leveraging its resource advantages, with a focus on industries such as oil and gas production, clean coal utilization, and food processing, contributing positively to national energy and food security [3][4]. - The industrial output value in the Xinjiang Economic and Technological Development Zone is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2024, creating over 20,000 new jobs [3]. Employment and Income - The cotton and textile industry has become a crucial livelihood sector in Xinjiang, with an average monthly salary of 3,500 yuan for skilled workers [4]. - By 2024, the total employment in Xinjiang is projected to reach 13.91 million, an increase of 1.45 million since 2012, with urban residents' per capita disposable income at 42,820 yuan and rural residents at 19,427 yuan, showing significant growth [4]. Infrastructure and Public Services - Major infrastructure projects have been completed, including the 825-kilometer railway from Hotan to Ruoqiang, significantly reducing travel distances for local residents [5]. - Over 75% of Xinjiang's fiscal spending is dedicated to improving public welfare, addressing issues related to healthcare, education, and housing [5]. Environmental Improvements - The government has prioritized ecological improvements, with a target of achieving 90% of good air quality days in the Tianshan North Slope urban cluster by 2024, alongside significant reductions in PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations [6]. Regional Coordination and Development - The development gap between southern and northern Xinjiang is narrowing, with infrastructure projects like the 750 kV power transmission project enhancing connectivity [7]. - The establishment of the Xinjiang Free Trade Zone in Kashgar has led to the registration of 1,168 new enterprises, contributing to a growing industrial system [7]. Overall Progress - Xinjiang is characterized by stability, harmony, and prosperity, with various ethnic groups working together to share development benefits and build a better community [8].

Group 1: Smart Manufacturing Transformation - A small shoe manufacturing enterprise in Suixian, Henan, has transformed into a smart factory, significantly reducing production time and labor from hundreds of workers over two weeks to just 30 workers in one to two days [1][5] - The precision in cutting has improved with smart equipment, reducing error margins from over 1mm to within 0.5mm, leading to material savings of 10 square meters daily [2][5] - The sewing process has become faster, with the number of workers halved and sewing machine speeds tripled, enhancing overall efficiency [2][5] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The factory utilizes a "smart brain" system that integrates data from various smart devices, allowing for automated production processes [3][11] - Personalized customization of shoes is now possible through digital technology, enabling tailored designs based on individual foot measurements [4][5] - The smart production line can replicate data quickly for custom orders, making the pricing more competitive [5] Group 3: Broader Industry Impact - In Suixian, over 600 shoe companies are adopting smart manufacturing, producing 350 million pairs of shoes annually, accounting for 30% of the national output [5][11] - A textile factory in Shandong has also undergone a transformation, improving efficiency by 150% and reducing labor needs by two-thirds through smart technology [6][8] - The shift to smart manufacturing is seen as essential for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to overcome challenges such as funding, talent, and technology shortages [10][12] Group 4: Government Support and Initiatives - Local governments are providing targeted support for SMEs in digital transformation, including workshops and a public service platform to guide companies [10][12] - The "1325+N" model in Hangzhou has facilitated the digital transformation of 592 enterprises, with nearly half completing the process [10][12] - The establishment of 12 industry-specific digital transformation guidelines aims to lower the barriers for SMEs to adopt smart manufacturing solutions [13]

Core Insights - The total output value of industrial parks in Azerbaijan has increased by 62.5 times over the past decade [1] - In 2015, the total output value was 270 million manats (approximately 160 million USD) [1] - By the first half of 2025, the total output value reached 17.2 billion manats (approximately 1.012 billion USD) [1] Export Products - Major export products include construction chemicals, steel, lubricants, polymers, urea, cables, glass panels, tiles, tobacco products, yarn, electrodes, fish feed, wallpaper, and footwear [1] - The export market spans over 70 countries and regions, including Asia, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, North America, South America, and the CIS [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, a leading global cotton yarn producer, experienced a slight revenue decline in the first half of 2025, but showed significant improvement in profitability and debt structure optimization [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 1.9% year-on-year to 11.03 billion yuan, primarily due to lower product prices [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 55.2% year-on-year to 420 million yuan, indicating a notable enhancement in profitability [1] - Gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage point to 14.2%, driven by operational efficiency and capacity utilization [1] - Financial expense ratio decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 1.3%, benefiting from foreign exchange gains and reduced loans [1] - Asset-liability ratio decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 51.4%, reflecting ongoing debt structure optimization [1] Inventory and Capital Expenditure - Inventory increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 5.369 billion yuan, attributed to unsold goods due to tariff uncertainties [1] - Capital expenditure rose by 17.2% year-on-year to 340 million yuan, linked to equipment upgrades and construction of factories in Vietnam [1] Business Segment Performance - Yarn sales volume increased by 3.6% year-on-year to 385,000 tons, driven by demand for functional sportswear [1] - Revenue from yarn decreased by 2.2% to 8.62 billion yuan due to price declines [1] - Sales of woven fabrics surged by 17.0% year-on-year to 51 million meters, supported by accelerated inventory replenishment amid tariff policy changes [1] - Gross margin for woven fabrics improved by 4.7 percentage points to 23.5% [1] - Sales of knitted fabrics fell by 33.5% year-on-year to 3,840 tons, with revenue declining by 37.8% to 18.6 million yuan, impacted by reduced export orders to the U.S. [1] Outlook for Second Half of 2025 - Management plans to sell 400,000 tons of yarn, 50 million meters of woven fabrics, and 3,000 tons of knitted fabrics in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company expects continued improvement in profitability and stable operational capabilities in the medium to long term [2] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised, with expected net profits of 720 million, 770 million, and 970 million yuan respectively [2] - Target price adjusted to 5.1-5.9 HKD, reflecting an increase in profit expectations [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianhong International Group is "Outperform the Market" [5][20]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 1.9% year-on-year to 11.03 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily due to lower product prices, but its profitability continued to improve with a net profit increase of 55.2% to 420 million yuan [1][3]. - The gross profit margin improved by 1.0 percentage point to 14.2%, attributed to enhanced operational efficiency and flexible raw material procurement strategies [1][20]. - The company is a leading global cotton yarn producer, and its debt structure has been optimized due to reduced bank borrowings, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio decrease of 2.6 percentage points to 51.4% [1][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the yarn sales volume increased by 3.6% to 385,000 tons, while yarn revenue decreased by 2.2% to 8.62 billion yuan due to price declines [2]. - The gross margin for yarn improved by 1.4 percentage points to 13.9% due to increased order volume and capacity utilization [2]. - The woven fabric business saw a significant growth of 17.0% in sales volume to 51 million meters, driven by inventory replenishment ahead of tariff changes [2]. - The knitted fabric segment faced challenges, with sales volume dropping by 33.5% to 3,840 tons and revenue declining by 37.8% to 186 million yuan [2]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 720 million, 770 million, and 970 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3%, 6.9%, and 25.5% [3][21]. - The target price has been raised to 5.1-5.9 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 6-7x for 2025 [3][20]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 13.1% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 3.1% [18][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The management plans to sell 400,000 tons of yarn, 50 million meters of woven fabric, and 3,000 tons of knitted fabric in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company benefits from a local supply chain and quick response capabilities, positioning it well for future market leadership [20].