Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tianhong International - **Industry**: Textile Key Points Financial Performance and Projections - The company aims to achieve profitability by 2025, with supply chain inventory levels reduced to medium-low, and a capacity utilization rate exceeding 90% in Q1 2026, with full operation in the Vietnam factory [2][3] - Gross margin is expected to fluctuate between 8% and 15%, reaching a high of 14% in 2025, with potential for slight improvement through cost reduction and debt reduction initiatives [2][3] - The financial structure is continuously optimized, targeting a debt ratio of 40% by 2026-2027, with a temporary suspension of dividends in 2025, but potential for resuming dividends in 2026 if performance is strong [2][3][13] Market Demand and Economic Outlook - The textile industry is expected to experience subdued demand in 2025 due to high inventory levels following significant market fluctuations in 2023 and 2024, with a gradual return to normal replenishment cycles anticipated [3][4] - The company maintains a conservative outlook for 2026 due to geopolitical uncertainties impacting macroeconomic conditions and consumer demand [3][4] - The company primarily exports, with a focus on the European and American markets, which are crucial for demand recovery; however, current demand signals remain weak [3][4] Raw Material and Cost Management - The company primarily uses foreign cotton, with a stock reserve cycle of 3-4 months, and anticipates stable or rising cotton prices in 2026, supported by low-cost inventory and price differentials [2][5] - Energy cost increases have a limited direct impact on the company, as it primarily uses cotton rather than synthetic fibers, although indirect effects on logistics costs are noted [3][4][16] Production Capacity and Strategy - The company’s production capacity is distributed with approximately 60% in China and 35% in Vietnam, with no large-scale expansion plans but ongoing technical upgrades with annual investments of 800-1,000 million [2][11] - The company’s yarn business achieved a gross margin of over 14% in 2025, supported by high capacity utilization and reduced financial costs [6][10] Product and Market Differentiation - Domestic products focus on mid-to-high-end and differentiated offerings, while overseas production in Vietnam targets simpler, volume-driven products, leading to varying profitability levels [7][8] - The company is exploring new market opportunities in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia, contingent on favorable political and economic conditions [11][12] Technological Advancements and Efficiency - Ongoing technical upgrades are expected to yield significant cost savings, particularly in labor, with annual savings projected at 100-200 million [12][13] - The company’s strategic focus remains on its core yarn business, with limited investment in other segments unless exceptional opportunities arise [10][11] Geopolitical and Economic Risks - Geopolitical conflicts and rising transportation costs may impact raw material prices, but the company’s reliance on cotton mitigates direct effects [16][17] - The ability to pass on increased costs to downstream customers remains uncertain, with potential shared burden across the supply chain [17] Future Outlook - The company is positioned for a new development cycle, with a solid financial foundation and strategic international presence, contingent on stable geopolitical conditions and cotton market trends [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianhong International Group (2678) [2][3] Core Insights - In 2025, the gross margin for the yarn business improved by 2.5 percentage points to 14.2%. The reduction in financial expenses due to debt repayment significantly contributed to this improvement. For 2026, yarn sales are expected to grow by 1.4%, benefiting from rising cotton prices, thus justifying the "Buy" rating [3][6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections (in million RMB) for the years 2024A to 2028E are as follows: - 2024A: 23,029 - 2025A: 22,716 (down 1.4% YoY) - 2026E: 23,965 (up 5.5% YoY) - 2027E: 24,805 (up 3.5% YoY) - 2028E: 25,437 (up 2.5% YoY) [5] - Gross profit and net profit attributable to the parent company are projected as follows: - 2024A: Gross profit 2,863, Net profit 554 - 2025A: Gross profit 3,138, Net profit 913 (up 64.9% YoY) - 2026E: Gross profit 3,387, Net profit 1,088 (up 19.1% YoY) - 2027E: Gross profit 3,547, Net profit 1,192 (up 9.6% YoY) - 2028E: Gross profit 3,677, Net profit 1,284 (up 7.7% YoY) [5] Business Performance - In 2025, the yarn segment generated revenue of 181.1 billion RMB, a 1.1% increase YoY, with sales volume up 6.3% and price down 4.9%. The company sold 433,000 tons in the second half of 2025, exceeding the target of 400,000 tons. The overall gross margin for the year was 14.2%, attributed to improved capacity utilization, especially in overseas factories, flexible raw material procurement, and automation upgrades [6][8]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the company plans to sell 830,000 tons of yarn, a 1.4% increase YoY, while maintaining the woven fabric sales at 100 million meters. The company aims to increase yarn production capacity in Vietnam by 100,000 spindles, raising total capacity to 4.35 million spindles, a 2.4% increase YoY. Additionally, a 20MW solar power station is planned [6][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a PE ratio of 8X for 2026, with a target price of 10.77 HKD, based on a conversion rate of 1 HKD = 0.88 RMB [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianhong International Group is "Buy" [2][3]. Core Views - The gross margin for the yarn business improved by 2.5 percentage points to 14.2% in 2025, driven by debt repayment which significantly reduced financial expenses [3][6]. - Yarn sales are expected to grow by 1.4% in 2026, benefiting from rising cotton prices, thus maintaining the "Buy" rating [3][6]. - The company plans to increase yarn production capacity in Vietnam by 100,000 spindles, raising total capacity to 4.35 million spindles, a 2.4% year-on-year increase [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 22,716 million RMB, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 913 million RMB, a 64.9% increase [5][6]. - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at 3,138 million RMB, with a gross margin of 14.2% [5][6]. - The company’s financial expenses for 2025 are expected to be 1.7 billion RMB, down by 2.2 billion RMB year-on-year, resulting in a financial expense ratio of 0.7% [6][8]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026, 2027, and 2028 is 1,088 million RMB, 1,192 million RMB, and 1,284 million RMB respectively [5][6]. - The projected PE ratio for 2026 is 8x, with a target price of 10.77 HKD based on a conversion rate of 1 HKD = 0.88 RMB [6][8]. Market Position - Tianhong International Group's current market capitalization is 5,719 million HKD, with a share price of 6.23 HKD [2][6]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global yarn market, entering a phase of profitability growth [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [7] Core Insights - The performance of 361 Degrees is the best among sports brands, with a profit increase of 20% after excluding donations, driven by a decrease in sales expense ratio due to scale effects and revenue growth from new super stores [3][16] - Li Ning's guidance indicates high revenue and net profit margins, with growth in running, comprehensive training, and basketball segments, while sports leisure shows a decline [3][16] - Anta's main brand shows slight growth, with FILA and Descente expected to grow over 20% [3][16] - Xtep is expected to face a double-digit decline in net profit for 2026 due to one-time expenses, but profit elasticity is anticipated in 2027 with adjustments in e-commerce and expansion of product categories [3][16] - Tianhong International Group's annual report indicates a turnaround in performance due to automation improving gross margins and reducing liabilities, although no dividends were declared [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - 361 Degrees shows the best performance among sports brands, with a profit increase of 20% after excluding donations, driven by scale effects and new store openings [3][16] - Li Ning's revenue guidance is optimistic, with growth in specific segments, while Anta and Xtep are adjusting for 2026 [3][16] 2. Market Review - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 0.50%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.59% [18] - The top-performing stocks include Shuhua Sports and Yanpai Shares, while the worst performers include Sanfangxiang and Jujie Fiber [18] 3. Industry Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - The China cotton price index increased by 1.34% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 7.89% [6][35] - The price of nylon in East China decreased by 1.66% this week, but has increased by 28.99% year-to-date [6][37] 3.2 Export Data - In February 2026, textile and apparel exports increased by 73.41% year-on-year, with a total export value of $22.44 billion [57] - The export value of oil tarpaulins and canopies increased by 44.87% year-on-year in February [61] 3.3 Consumer Data - In February 2026, sales on Taobao and Tmall for children's clothing increased by 9.96%, with Balabala Shoes showing the highest growth rate of 35450.52% [5][79]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, this week, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated within a range with a lower center of gravity, following market supply - demand and internal - external price difference logic. Currently in the middle of the cotton sales period, Xinjiang cotton's available supply is tightening. Downstream textile enterprises purchase raw materials mainly for rigid needs, with stable spot trading volume. There's no short - term large - scale boost for the market, but cotton consumption is proceeding steadily. Around 15,000 yuan/ton, the cotton price rebounded quickly, indicating potential support. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range [52]. - Internationally, this week, US cotton entered a high - level consolidation phase after a previous rally, digesting the positive news of China's issuance of sliding - scale import quotas. The US cotton - growing regions are approaching the spring sowing window, and there are still potential short - term weather disruptions. The market will likely focus on new - crop planting expectations, export data, and the global supply - demand situation. In the short term, the global cotton market has relatively loose supply and a steady export pace, with a relatively stable US cotton trend. A planting area report will be released at the end of March, awaiting key data guidance [52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures weakened this week, with a weekly decline of 1.2%. ICE cotton futures rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.48% [9]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index declined. The 3128 index dropped by 239 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index fell by 228 yuan/ton [13]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In January - February, 380,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. As of the second half of February, the commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, showing a continuous decline [18][20]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - The commercial cotton inventory has been decreasing, with 5.477 million tons in the second half of February [20]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In February, the yarn inventory was 21.45 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.87 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.24 days, a year - on - year increase of 3.81 days [28]. 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S remained unchanged, the price of C32S increased by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of JC40S was flat [33]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 31. There were 12,437 warehouse receipts and 323 effective forecasts, totaling 12,760 [38]. 3.1.8 Seed - cotton Purchase Situation - No specific analysis content provided, only the price data of Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase is shown [41]. 3.1.9 US Cotton Export Situation - As of March 12, according to the USDA weekly export sales report, the current - year net sales of US upland cotton exports increased by 196,700 bales, and the next - year net sales were 122,200 bales [46]. 3.1.10 US Weather Situation - The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US is 20.1%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas is 24.8%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas is 15.2%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas is 5.4%, the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas is 0.4%, and the total drought - affected area (D1 - D4) is 45.8% [49]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestically, the market is expected to continue to operate based on supply - demand and price differences. It is advisable to buy on dips around the support level [52]. - Internationally, the market will focus on new - crop planting, export data, and the global supply - demand pattern. The release of the planting area report at the end of March will provide key guidance [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened again after fluctuations this week. The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran initially suppressed Zhengzhou cotton, but with the weakening of macro - impacts, it chose to rise. Strong export data supports demand, and yarn prices also increased after the rise in cotton prices, indicating a stable cotton market. Attention should be paid to the planting area in major production areas, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas has limited short - term negative impact. The internal - external price difference is expected to narrow [53]. - Internationally, the global cotton production forecast has been raised by over 1.1 million bales due to increased planting in Brazil and improved yields in China, partially offset by reduced production in Argentina. Global consumption is down 140,000 bales, with weak consumption in many countries partially offset by increased consumption in China. The global inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased by 1 percentage point to 64%, showing a pattern of stable supply - demand in US cotton, increased supply and weakening demand globally, and a slight increase in inventory pressure. The rumor of China issuing import quotas has boosted the US cotton market, and official confirmation is awaited [53]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on range - band trading [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton strengthened slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.78%. ICE cotton rebounded, with a weekly increase of 2.88% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 243 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 265 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import - In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [19]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory - In the second half of February, the commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, and the commercial inventory continued to decline [21]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory - In February, the yarn inventory was 21.45 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.87 days. The grey cloth inventory was 33.24 days, a year - on - year increase of 3.81 days [29]. 3.1.6 Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of 10 - count airflow - spun cotton yarn increased by 70 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn increased by 70 yuan/ton [34]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 53. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,325, and the valid forecasts were 446, totaling 12,771 [39]. 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase - Not elaborated in depth in the report, only the price data of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase is presented [42][43]. 3.1.9 US Cotton Export - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of March 5th, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 253,200 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 36,600 bales [47]. 3.1.10 US Weather - The drought situation in the US is as follows: the area with abnormally dry conditions (D0) accounts for 21.0%, moderate drought (D1) accounts for 25.3%, severe drought (D2) accounts for 14.8%, extreme drought (D3) accounts for 5.5%, exceptional drought (D4) accounts for 0.3%, and the total drought - affected area (D1 - D4) accounts for 45.9% [50]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened after fluctuations. The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran initially suppressed the price, but with the weakening of macro - impacts, it chose to rise. Strong export data supports demand, and yarn prices increased. Attention should be paid to the planting area in major production areas, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas has limited short - term negative impact. The internal - external price difference is expected to narrow [53]. - Internationally, the global cotton production forecast has been raised, consumption has decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased. The rumor of China issuing import quotas has boosted the US cotton market, and official confirmation is awaited [53]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on range - band trading [54].

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities initiates coverage on Tianhong International Group (02678) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting its position as a global leader in yarn production and its strategic early investment in Vietnam, which has resulted in mature production capacity. The firm anticipates that the company's high inventory levels are nearly cleared, leading to a profit upturn [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Tianhong International Group, founded in 1997, is one of the largest suppliers of core-spun cotton textiles globally. The company has proactively expanded its yarn production capacity in Vietnam since 2006, successfully navigating challenges such as rising cotton prices and supply chain disruptions [1] - The founder and controlling shareholder, Mr. Hong Tianzhu, holds a 52.9% stake, indicating a concentrated ownership among core executives [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company’s cost structure is heavily influenced by raw material prices, with 76.1% of costs attributed to cotton. It is expected to maintain a cotton inventory for 3-4 months, leading to cyclical profit fluctuations based on cotton price trends. In 2024, the company is projected to benefit from brand restocking and has successfully returned to profitability [2] - Forecasted net profits for the company are expected to reach 0.89 billion, 1.04 billion, and 1.13 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a target price of 10.20 HKD based on a PE ratio of 8X for 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The global yarn market is projected to grow from 845.66 billion yuan in 2025 to 1,260.29 billion yuan by 2032, with a CAGR of 5.9%. Tianhong International Group's yarn revenue is expected to be 17.91 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 2.1% of the market [3] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company is in an active debt repayment phase, which is expected to reduce financial expenses and enhance profits. It is projected to repay 0.8-1 billion yuan annually from 2025 to 2027, leading to interest savings of 0.13 billion, 0.05 billion, and 0.04 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The trend towards diversified sourcing and increased brand traceability requirements presents opportunities for market share growth. The company’s established overseas production capacity positions it favorably to secure more orders [4] - Internal technological upgrades and investments in solar energy are anticipated to drive organic growth. The wage component per unit of revenue has decreased from 0.084 yuan in 2017 to 0.075 yuan in 2024, with plans to build a 180 MW solar power station by 2025, which is expected to lower overall production costs [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Tianhong International Group, with a target price of HKD 10.20 based on a PE of 8X for 2026 [8][19]. Core Insights - Tianhong International Group is recognized as a global leader in yarn production, with a significant portion of its production capacity located in Vietnam. The company has successfully cleared high inventory levels and is entering a phase of profit growth [3][19]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in brand inventory and an increase in orders, leading to improved capacity utilization and profitability [27][28]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on debt repayment and reducing leverage, which is anticipated to lower financial costs and enhance profits [44][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 229.2 billion, RMB 239.6 billion, and RMB 245.9 billion, with year-on-year changes of -0.5%, +4.6%, and +2.6% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 8.9 billion, RMB 10.4 billion, and RMB 11.3 billion, reflecting growth rates of 60.5%, 17.2%, and 8.7% [18][19]. 2. Company Overview - Tianhong International Group, founded in 1997, is the largest supplier of core-spun cotton textiles globally. The company has strategically expanded its yarn production capacity in Vietnam since 2006, positioning itself among the top three competitors in China's cotton textile industry [19][20]. 3. Financial Analysis - The company's profits are influenced by cotton price fluctuations, which exhibit a cyclical nature. In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 5.5 billion, a significant increase of 247.3% year-on-year, driven by improved capacity utilization and inventory management [34][37]. - Capital expenditures are stabilizing, focusing on technological upgrades and solar energy investments. The total yarn production capacity is projected to remain stable at around 421 million spindles [39][40]. 4. Global Yarn Market Outlook - The global yarn market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2025 to 2032, with the market size expected to reach RMB 12,602.9 billion by 2032. Tianhong's yarn revenue in 2024 is estimated at RMB 17.91 billion, representing a market share of approximately 2.1% [42][43]. 5. Future Prospects - The company is actively reducing debt, which is expected to lower financial expenses and enhance profitability. It aims to decrease its debt-to-asset ratio to around 40% by 2027, with annual debt repayments projected at RMB 8-10 billion [44][48].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Tianhong International Group, with a target price of HKD 10.20 based on a 2026 PE of 8X [8][19]. Core Insights - Tianhong International Group is recognized as a global leader in yarn production, with a significant portion of its production capacity located in Vietnam. The company has successfully cleared high inventory levels and is entering a period of profit growth [3][19]. - The report forecasts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach RMB 8.9 billion, RMB 10.4 billion, and RMB 11.3 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60.5%, 17.2%, and 8.7% [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Tianhong International Group, founded in 1997, is one of the largest suppliers of core-spun cotton textiles globally. The company has strategically expanded its yarn production capacity in Vietnam since 2006, which has positioned it well in the market [19][20]. 2. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 23.03 billion, with a slight increase of 1.3% year-on-year. The gross profit is expected to be RMB 2.863 billion, and the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at RMB 554 million, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [6][18]. - The report highlights that 76.1% of the company's costs are related to raw materials, primarily cotton, indicating that profit margins are sensitive to fluctuations in cotton prices [19][34]. 3. Future Outlook - The global yarn market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2025 to 2032, with the market size projected to reach RMB 12,602.9 billion by 2032. Tianhong's yarn revenue is anticipated to account for approximately 2.1% of this market in 2024 [42][43]. - The company is actively working on debt repayment and reducing leverage, which is expected to lower financial expenses and enhance profitability. It plans to repay RMB 8-10 billion in debt annually over the next three years [44][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton adjusted slightly this week. The situation between the US and Iran suppressed Zhengzhou cotton prices. Domestic policies are stable with a loosening tendency. The textile industry has entered the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", but the recovery of orders is slow. Downstream demand is mainly for replenishing inventory as needed, and the acceptance of high - priced cotton is low. The inventory of cotton yarn is slowly decreasing, and the cost - transmission channel is blocked. In terms of industrial fundamentals, domestic new cotton sales are coming to an end, industrial and commercial inventories are lower than the same period last year, and inventory pressure is gradually easing. The expectation of a significant reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season continues to ferment, providing support for cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices are difficult to break the oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, with the start of spring sowing and the gradual realization of peak - season demand, the price center is expected to move up steadily [52]. - Internationally, the global macro - environment is oscillating. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index is at a high level, suppressing the valuation of commodities. Overseas textile demand is recovering weakly, and the operating rate of Southeast Asian textile enterprises is low. The international cotton market is under pressure. In terms of industrial fundamentals, the export progress of US cotton is slow, and overseas purchasing willingness is low. There is insufficient momentum for the short - term rebound of overseas cotton prices [52]. - The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Spot Price**: This week, the cotton price index declined. The 3128 index decreased by 130 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index also decreased by 130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Cotton Import Situation**: In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year [20]. - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: In the first half of February, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.5037 million tons, and the commercial inventory reached a turning point [21]. - **Downstream Inventory Situation**: In January, the yarn inventory was 21.71 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.05 days. The grey fabric inventory was 33.13 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 days [28]. - **Yarn Price**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of open - end spun 10 - count cotton yarn remained the same as last week, the price of carded 32 - count cotton yarn increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of combed 40 - count cotton yarn increased by 230 yuan/ton compared with last week [33]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 227. The number of warehouse receipts was 11,390, the valid forecast was 1,253, and the total was 12,643 [38]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase Situation**: The report shows the trend of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices, but no specific summary data is provided [41]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of February 26, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the current year increased by 150,000 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 54,600 bales [46]. - **US Weather Situation**: The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US is 21.0%, moderate drought is 25.3%, severe drought is 14.8%, extreme drought is 5.5%, and exceptional drought is 0.3%. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 45.9% [49]. 3.2后市展望 - Domestically, short - term cotton prices are in an oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, the price center is expected to move up steadily. Internationally, the international cotton market is under pressure, and there is insufficient momentum for the short - term rebound of overseas cotton prices. The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips [52][53].