Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current cotton harvest in Xinjiang is over halfway, with the northern region in the later stage and the southern region progressing more slowly. As of October 16, 2025, the cumulative national notarized inspection volume of new - season cotton is 56.9 million tons. The purchase price of new cotton has slightly decreased due to the resurgence of Sino - US tariff policy fluctuations, but the purchase price in some southern Xinjiang areas remains firm [1]. - In the short - term, although the increase in production expectation has been slightly revised, the overall output is still high, and the downstream peak season demand is weakening, so the upward driving force of cotton prices is insufficient. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight due to limited import quotas [4][17]. - The trading strategy suggests a wide - range shock for cotton prices. For CF2601, consider short - selling on rebounds, pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity, and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn price difference [22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The progress of cotton picking in Xinjiang is accelerating. The purchase price of new cotton has slightly decreased, but it is still relatively firm in southern Xinjiang. The concentrated listing of new cotton in late October will put pressure on cotton prices. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season in the downstream is weakening, but spinning mills still have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton stocks [1]. - In the short - term, the purchase price of new cotton is firm, but the overall output is high, and the downstream demand is weakening. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply and demand may be tight due to limited import quotas [4][17]. 1.2 Transaction - type Strategy Recommendations - The cotton price is expected to fluctuate widely. For CF2601, consider short - selling on rebounds, pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity, and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn price difference [22]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of cotton in the near - term is 13,000 - 13,600. For inventory management, enterprises with high inventory can short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, enterprises with low inventory can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [20]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: The closing prices of Zheng cotton 01, 05, and 09 are 13,335, 13,390, and 13,565 respectively, with weekly increases of 10, 15, and 15, and increases of 0.08%, 0.11%, and 0.11% respectively. - Spot data: The prices of CC Index 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B are 14,679, 12,844, and 14,964 respectively, with decreases of - 96, - 88, and - 75, and decreases of - 0.65%, - 0.68%, and - 0.5% respectively [21]. - Spread data: The CF1 - 5 spread is - 55, the CF5 - 9 spread is - 175, and the CF9 - 1 spread is 230. - Import price: The prices of FC Index M and FCY Index C32s are 12,851 and 21,110 respectively, with decreases of - 86 and - 65, and decreases of - 0.66% and - 0.31% respectively. - Cotton yarn data: The closing price of futures is 19,470, with a weekly increase of 95 and an increase of 0.49%. The spot price is 20,440, with a decrease of - 20 and a decrease of - 0.1% [23]. Chapter 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: As of October 10, the national new cotton picking progress is 32.6%, the national delivery rate is 73.1%. On October 16, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang is 6.17 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg [24]. - Bearish information: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports are 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be slightly revised up to 4.077 million tons [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - In Xinjiang, pay attention to the change in the purchase price of machine - picked cotton and the final output of Xinjiang cotton. Due to the US government shutdown, pay attention to the release of the USDA report, as well as the growth and export of US cotton [29]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Zheng cotton oscillated this week. After a decline at the beginning of the week, the trading volume increased, and the capital entered the market, leading to a slight rebound in cotton prices. - Month - spread structure: The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure. The near - term contracts are weak due to the increase in supply and hedging pressure, while the far - term contracts are expected to have tight supply and demand at the end of the year [34]. - Basis structure: The decline of cotton prices has slowed down this week, and the basis has slightly declined. The spot price of the same quality has a lower basis of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and most sales basis quotes are CF01 + 1200 - 1350 [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - With the listing of new cotton, the arrival price of cotton has continued to decline, while the cotton yarn price has remained stable, so the spinning profit of domestic spinning mills has been significantly repaired [39]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is tight. The issuance of the additional quota has limited impact on the market, and the import profit of foreign cotton has rebounded slightly recently [42]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - season Xinjiang cotton is gradually being listed, and the high - yield pattern is basically established. However, the yield in some southern Xinjiang areas is lower than expected, and the lint percentage is low, so the increase in production may be narrowed. It is estimated that the new - season cotton import volume is 1.1 million tons, and the probability of further increasing the sliding - duty quota is low. The domestic cotton consumption is not overly pessimistic [47].