1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2026, Zhengzhou cotton has strong bottom support, but there are short - term callback risk factors in the fundamentals. Further upward breakthrough requires the implementation of policies and continuous follow - up of downstream demand. The global cotton supply is difficult to increase significantly, and the slow depletion of the previous surplus inventory will improve the global supply - demand pattern. The domestic demand has certain resilience, but the export growth rate may gradually decline [3][114][115]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: In Q1 2026, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton traded around "production reduction expectation" and "demand recovery". The adjustment of Xinjiang's cotton planting area and the recovery of downstream demand supported the upward movement of the center of gravity. Although there were short - term suppressions, the overall upward trend was obvious [8]. - **US Cotton**: In Q1 2026, the main contract of US cotton showed a "V" - shaped trend. The market logic shifted from "terminal demand concerns" to "supply contraction expectation + marginal improvement in exports". The expectation of reduced planting area and the improvement of export conditions drove the price to rebound [9]. 3.2 Overseas Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Overview**: In the 2025/2026 cotton year, the global cotton output increased slightly, consumption decreased slightly, imports and exports increased slightly, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The adjustment of this report has a slightly bearish impact on the global market [11][12][13]. - **Global Climate Overview**: In 2026, the climate will change from La Nina to El Nino. El Nino may lead to a significant increase in the risk of production reduction in the Northern Hemisphere and a relatively favorable situation in the Southern Hemisphere. The global cotton output may decline slightly [17][18]. - **US Market Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Area and Yield**: The new - year planting area is expected to decline, and the drought in the main producing areas will restrict the yield. The total output in 2026/27 is expected to decrease by about 2.3% [28][29]. - **Exports**: As of March 19, the signing volume was lower than the same period, but the shipment volume was higher. In the future, with the improvement of global textile demand and China's procurement willingness, the export prospects are expected to improve [32][33]. - **Inventory**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, the US cotton is still in a state of inventory accumulation, but there is room for marginal improvement in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [35][36]. - **Brazilian Market Supply - Demand Situation**: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the planting area is expected to decrease by 5%, and the yield is expected to decrease by 6.9%. The export is in a downward channel, but the new - season supply contraction will support the price [39][40]. - **Indian Market Supply - Demand Situation**: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to be the same as the previous year. The domestic textile consumption is recovering, but the export is under pressure. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to remain relatively loose [43][44]. 3.3 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Situation - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: According to the USDA and BCO, in the 2025/26 cotton year, China's cotton output increased, consumption increased slightly, and imports increased slightly. In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to decline, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to converge [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Progress**: As of late March, the cotton inspection was nearing completion, and the sales rate of new cotton had reached over 74%. The core contradiction is the inventory depletion rate of ginning mills and the purchasing willingness of downstream spinning mills [50]. - **Output**: In the 2026/27 cotton year, the output is expected to decline. The actual implementation of the production reduction task may face challenges, and the actual reduction in 2026 may be 5 - 8% [53][54]. - **Imports**: In the early stage of 2026, cotton imports were strong, but the annual import volume is expected to be relatively low. Imported yarn may suppress the domestic cotton price. The import tariff of US cotton has been reduced, but there are still uncertainties [64][65][66]. - **Inventory**: China's cotton commercial inventory is at a high level, but the year - on - year increase has been significantly alleviated. The inventory depletion expectation is relatively optimistic, but the potential release of state - reserve cotton needs to be noted [78][79]. - **Demand**: - **Load and Profit**: As of March 21, the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills were higher than the same period. The profit of spinning mills showed a V - shaped trend. However, there may be some demand front - loading factors, and the high operating load may face a decline pressure [86][87][89]. - **Retail and Consumption**: In January - February 2026, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased significantly. After the Spring Festival, the growth rate is expected to slow down. In the long - term, the consumption structure is still restricted by population and debt [90][91][94]. - **Exports**: In January - February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports increased significantly. However, the subsequent replenishment order space in the US is limited, and the export growth rate may decline [105][106][113]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the new - cotton inventory pressure and the issuance of import quotas will suppress the cotton price. In the long term, with the implementation of Xinjiang's target price subsidy policy and the start of downstream replenishment demand, the supply - demand situation will improve, and the cotton price is expected to rise. However, it is necessary to pay attention to potential risks such as macro - environment changes, policy implementation, and abnormal weather [114][115][117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The overall view on cotton is moderately bullish. The report indicates that the fundamentals, basis, market trends, and main positions all show positive signals. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", along with a reduction in US tariffs and an improvement in Sino - US relations, textile exports are favored. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with resistance around 15,700, and the center of gravity is slowly rising. The trading idea is slightly bullish with intraday fluctuations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided on the previous day's review in the given report. 3.2 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts that global consumption in the 26/27 season will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. USDA's March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China's cotton imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's March forecast for the 25/26 season shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 16,814, and the basis is 1,284 (for the 09 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the ending inventory in the 25/26 season in March is 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Market Trends**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are bullish, the net long positions are increasing, but the main trend is not clear [4]. - **Expectations**: Textile exports were good from January to February. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", along with a reduction in US tariffs and an improvement in Sino - US relations, textile exports are favored. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with resistance around 15,700, and the center of gravity is slowly rising. The trading idea is slightly bullish with intraday fluctuations [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenishment occurred before the Spring Festival. Tariffs on exports to the US have been reduced. Sino - US relations have improved. The traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" has arrived [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton is on the market. Currently, it is in the traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: From 2021/22 to 2025/26, production has generally increased, and consumption has remained relatively stable. The ending inventory in 2025/26 is 16.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [9][10]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2026/27 season, production is expected to decrease by 4% to 24.8 million tons, mainly due to declines in Brazil and the US; consumption is expected to decrease by 0.7% to 25 million tons; the ending inventory is expected to decrease by 1% to 16.6 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decrease by 0.2 percentage points to 66.4%; the global cotton trade volume is expected to decrease by 2.2% to 9.6 million tons; the yield per unit area is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 822 kg/ha; the planting area is expected to decrease by 0.7% to 30.2 million hectares [11]. - **China's Cotton Data**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, production is expected to increase from 5.62 million tons to 6.64 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.4 million tons, consumption is expected to be 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is expected to be 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided on position data in the given report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices rose slightly with no significant changes in fundamentals. Supported by the short - term consumption peak season, the futures price moved up slowly. - The ICAC predicts that global consumption in the 26/27 season will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be reduced by over 10%. - According to the USDA's March report, the production in the 25/26 season is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. - From January to February, textile and clothing exports were 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China's cotton imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. - According to the Ministry of Agriculture's March forecast for the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. - The textile exports from January to February were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", and the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, textile exports are favored. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with the upper pressure around 15,700. The center of gravity moves up slowly, and the intraday trading should follow a slightly long - biased and oscillatory strategy [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Prompt No information provided in the report. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: In the 25/26 season, the total global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. Among them, China's production is 7.729 million tons, consumption is 8.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 7.917 million tons [9][10][11]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, global cotton production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4% decrease year - on - year; consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease year - on - year; the ending inventory is 16.6 million tons, a 1% decrease year - on - year [12]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [14]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to reduce the area by over 10%. Downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, reduction of export tariffs to the US, easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large number of new cotton has been listed, and the current period is the traditional consumption off - season [7]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral - with a slight bullish bias [3] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - economic conditions, supply, demand, and inventory. Although there are some bearish factors such as the macro - economic recession expectation and import competition, the overall demand and inventory situation still support the cotton price in the medium - term. The release of subsidy policies in late March and early April will significantly impact the market's speculation on future supply - demand patterns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Factors 3.1.1 International Macro - economy - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. The market shifts from trading rate - cuts to trading economic recession due to the impact from the crude oil market. China and the US have economic and trade consultations in Paris, forming some new consensuses and agreeing to maintain further consultations [3] 3.1.2 Domestic Macro - economy - There is no specific macro - economic information provided other than the expectation of the new cotton subsidy policy [3] 3.2 Supply Factors 3.2.1 International Supply - Brazil's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3.7951 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease. Pakistan's cotton yarn export volume in February 2026 is about 30,900 tons, a 1.5% month - on - month increase and a 57% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to February is 61,300 tons [3] 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - The market is concerned about the new cotton target price subsidy policy. It is speculated that the production target of 36 million mu may be achieved in 2 - 3 years, and the direct subsidy price may be slightly reduced from 18,600 yuan/ton to 18,300 yuan/ton. The estimated domestic cotton production in the 26/27 season is about 7.24 - 7.25 million tons, with an estimated year - on - year decrease of about 8%. The 300,000 - ton sliding - duty quota for processing trade issued by the National Development and Reform Commission may relieve the supply - demand situation in the short - term but is unlikely to change the long - term supply - demand expectation. As of March 21, the national commercial cotton inventory is 5.0399 million tons, showing a seasonal decline [3][25][28] 3.3 Inventory Factors - The domestic commercial cotton inventory shows a seasonal decline, but the decline in Xinjiang slows down, resulting in a relatively stable year - on - year change. The terminal clothing inventory of state - owned enterprises is at a low level, and the inventory of finished products is being transferred from the yarn to the cloth segment, which supports the demand. The current inventory of grey fabrics is not high and may continue to support the market [3] 3.4 Demand Factors 3.4.1 International Demand - In January 2026, the US's total imports of textiles and clothing from China are about $1.078 billion, a 4.7% month - on - month increase and a 55.9% year - on - year decrease. The total imports of cotton textiles and clothing from China are about $288 million, a 13% month - on - month increase and a 56.6% year - on - year decrease. Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume in February 2026 is $1.311 billion, a 24.6% month - on - month decrease and a 7.2% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export volume from January to February is $3.05 billion [3] 3.4.2 Domestic Demand - The downstream enterprises' operating rates are higher than the same period last year. The spinning profit is further repaired. However, the import of cotton yarn with high cost - performance squeezes the domestic cotton market. The overseas restocking has not started yet. The domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in January - February 2026 show a year - on - year growth of 4.5%. The textile and clothing export volume in January - February is $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year - on - year increase [3][44][47] 3.5 Price and Market Trends 3.5.1 US Cotton - Due to the international situation and the improvement of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, as well as the good fundamentals in the short - term, the US cotton is expected to maintain a strong trend. If the macro - economic trading expectation improves, it may reach 70 cents per pound [3] 3.5.2 Zhengzhou Cotton - This week, the center of Zhengzhou cotton has declined, but it shows strong support at key positions. The market is still in a slightly bullish trend. The good start of the downstream industry and the transfer of finished product inventory support the cotton price. However, the upward breakthrough still depends on the supply - side policies. After the continuous rise of the futures price, the risk has increased [3] 3.6 USDA Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The overall situation in the March USDA global supply - demand balance sheet is slightly bearish. Globally, the production is increased by 246,000 tons to 2.634 million tons, the consumption is decreased by 139,000 tons to 1.7216 million tons, and the global inventory - to - consumption ratio is increased by 1.15% to 64.4%. In China, the production in 2025/26 is increased by 109,000 tons to 772,800 tons, the consumption is increased by 109,000 tons to 859,900 tons, and the monthly inventory - to - consumption ratio is decreased by 1.18% to 92.05% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton prices fluctuated and declined. After the previous positive factors were exhausted, the market adjusted temporarily, with support around 15,000. The 1 - 2 month textile exports were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. Zheng cotton pulled back during the session and found support around 15,000. In the short term, with a bullish and oscillating mindset, rely on the support level [4]. - Bullish factors include the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026 with an expected reduction of over 10%, downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, the reduction of export tariffs to the US, the easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional peak seasons [5]. - Bearish factors include a general decline in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices fluctuated and declined. After the previous positive factors were exhausted, the market adjusted temporarily, with support around 15,000. ICAC predicts that global consumption in 26/27 will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area will be regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. The USDA March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. Customs data shows that from January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. From January to February, China's cotton imports were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's March 25/26 season data shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - No information about daily tips is provided in the given content. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information about today's focus is provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. There are specific production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data for various countries [10][11]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4% decrease; consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; the ending inventory is expected to be 16.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the global cotton trade volume is expected to be 9.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the yield per unit area is expected to be 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is expected to be 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [12]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No information about position data is provided in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report is bullish on cotton in the short - term, suggesting a bullish and volatile trading strategy near the support level. The reasons include positive fundamentals such as expected reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026, good textile exports from January to February, the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations. However, there are also bearish factors like the decline in overall foreign trade orders, inventory increase, and the arrival of new cotton on the market [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts that global cotton consumption in 26/27 will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to decrease by more than 10%. USDA's March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China's cotton imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,649, and the basis is 1434 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory for the 25/26 season in March to be 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position is increasing, but the main trend is not clear [4]. - **Expectation**: Textile exports from January to February were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. Zhengzhou cotton had a callback in the intraday session and found support near 15,000. In the short - term, a bullish and volatile trading strategy is recommended near the support level [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory among different countries [10][11]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4% decrease; consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; ending inventory is 16.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the trade volume is 9.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the yield per unit area is 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [12]. - **China's Cotton Data**: In the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - International cotton market: This week, the macro - face and geopolitics in the international market caused significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, boosting cotton prices. However, the USDA March supply - demand report was bearish, with increased cotton production in Brazil and China. Also, the recent weak US cotton exports were unfavorable to cotton prices. Geopolitical uncertainties and a stronger US dollar restricted raw material demand, leading to high - level volatile cotton prices [8]. - Domestic cotton market: This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices fluctuated and declined at high levels due to increased domestic import supply. But the rising cost of cotton substitutes like polyester staple fiber and domestic cost support, along with the policy of reducing cotton - planting area, were long - term bullish factors, keeping cotton prices at a relatively high level [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market行情概述 3.1.1 This Week's Important Information at Home and Abroad - International news: Iran's attack on Persian Gulf energy facilities led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, worsening the global energy supply outlook and causing significant oil price fluctuations. US economic data, such as the New York Fed manufacturing index and the Michigan consumer confidence index, showed mixed trends. The Indian Cotton Association adjusted its cotton import, production, and inventory forecasts. Brazil's cotton exports in the first two weeks of March increased by 37% compared to the daily average in March last year. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in global cotton production and a decrease in consumption. US cotton export sales decreased [5]. - Domestic news: The national commercial cotton inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased. The spinning mills' cotton inventory decreased. The 2026/27 Xinjiang cotton target - price area regulation target was set at about 36 million mu, a reduction of over 10% from the previous year. China's cotton imports in February increased by 44.1% year - on - year, and the government issued 300,000 tons of sliding - scale duty processing trade quotas in March [5]. 3.1.2 Market Price Situation - Futures prices: The NYBOT 2 - cotton futures closing price increased by 2.34%, the Cotlook A index rose by 3.30%, the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price decreased by 1.30%, and the China Cotton Price Index decreased by 1.18%. The China Imported Cotton Price Index increased by 3.72%, and the China Yarn Price Index increased by 0.45%. - Import profit: Cotton spot and futures import profits decreased by 16.52% and 24.24% respectively, and the yarn import profit decreased. - Basis: The cotton and yarn basis were relatively strong, with increases of 10.05% and 135.85% respectively [6]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand Factor Situation - International market: Global cotton production, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio remained unchanged but were expected to increase. US cotton weekly export net sales decreased by 22.31% but were expected to increase [7]. - Domestic market: China's cotton production remained unchanged but was expected to decrease. The commercial inventory decreased by 1.85%, imports increased by 88.89%, downstream开工率 increased by 1.24%, and textile exports decreased by 19.85% [7]. 3.1.4 This Week's Views and Strategies - International cotton market: Geopolitical and macro factors boosted cotton prices, but the bearish supply - demand report and weak US exports restricted price increases. - Domestic cotton market: Import pressure led to price fluctuations, but cost support and policy expectations were bullish. - Technical analysis: Zhengzhou cotton showed high - level volatile adjustment. - Strategy: It is advisable to buy at low prices and conduct short - term rolling operations [8]. 3.2 Spot Market Price and Spread 3.2.1 Spot Cotton and Yarn Price Trends - Cotton spot prices were strong at high levels, imported cotton prices continued to rebound significantly, and yarn prices were firm [15]. 3.2.2 Cotton and Yarn Basis - This week, the cotton basis fluctuated greatly and remained strong, while the yarn basis was strong and volatile [17]. 3.2.3 Cotton and Yarn Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Cotton import profit decreased but was still relatively strong, while yarn import profit decreased sharply [20]. 3.3 International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data 3.3.1 USDA Supply - Demand Data (March) - Global cotton production and ending inventory were increased, and demand was decreased [24]. 3.3.2 International Market: US Upland Cotton Weekly Exports - US upland cotton weekly exports decreased compared to the previous period [27]. 3.4 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data 3.4.1 Domestic Cotton Market: March Supply - Demand Report - The March supply - demand report from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was unchanged, while the USDA increased China's cotton production and ending inventory [31]. 3.4.2 Domestic Cotton Market: Inventory Situation - The commercial inventory continued to decline rapidly, and the port inventory was rising [35]. 3.4.3 Domestic Cotton Market: Import Situation - Cotton imports increased month - on - month, but the overall import volume was still weak, and annual imports were expected to increase slightly [38]. 3.4.4 Domestic Textile Enterprises: Operating Conditions - The operating rate of domestic textile enterprises continued to increase, yarn inventory was quickly digested, raw material inventory procurement accelerated, and the overall processing profit loss decreased [42][45]. 3.4.5 Domestic Cotton Spinning and Textile Exports - Cotton spinning imports decreased month - on - month, and textile exports in January - February were still relatively strong [48]. 3.5 Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate was still appreciating, and the US dollar index rose significantly this week due to geopolitical factors [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are generally positive, with expected consumption exceeding production in the 26/27 global market and potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026. The export of textiles and clothing from January to February showed a significant increase, and the current period is the traditional peak season. However, there are also some negative factors, such as a decline in overall foreign trade orders and an increase in inventory. The market has started a technical correction, and attention should be paid to the support around 15,000 when the main contract moves to 09 [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts that global consumption in the 26/27 season will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be regulated with a possible reduction of over 10%. USDA's March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. From January to February, China's textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. China imported 370,000 tons of cotton from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and 290,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 80,000 tons year-on-year. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 16,722 yuan, and the basis is 1,572 yuan (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season in March shows an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons, which is a negative factor [4]. - **Market trend**: The 20-day moving average is upward, but the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, which is a negative signal [4]. - **Main positions**: The positions are generally long, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is a positive factor [4]. - **Expectations**: The textile exports from January to February were good, and the current period is the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April". Coupled with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino-US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. However, the previous positive factors have been mostly reflected in the market, and there are no new positive factors. The market has started a technical correction. The main contract is about to move to 09, and attention should be paid to the support around 15,000 [4]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the given content 4.基本面数据 - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 26.343 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 247,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 533,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.817 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 79,000 tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 16.631 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 278,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 573,000 tons [11][12]. - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, global cotton production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a decrease of 4% compared to the 25/26 season. Consumption is expected to be 25 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The ending inventory is expected to be 16.6 million tons, a decrease of 1%. The inventory-to-consumption ratio is expected to be 66.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.64 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.4 million tons, consumption is expected to be 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is expected to be 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 and 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 and 100 cents per pound [15]. 5.持仓数据 - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are generally positive. The global consumption in the 26/27 period is 25 million tons, and the production is 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by more than 10%. The export of textiles and clothing from January to February increased by 17.6% year - on - year, and the import of cotton and cotton yarn in December also increased year - on - year. The basis shows a premium over futures, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions are long, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear. However, there may be a technical correction in the later stage if there is no new positive news [4]. - The positive factors include the regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 with an expected reduction of over 10%, downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, the reduction of export tariffs to the US, the easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [5]. - The negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, the increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - There is no information about the previous day review in the provided content. 3.2 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of cotton are analyzed from multiple aspects. The global and domestic supply - demand data are presented, including production, consumption, and inventory. The basis, inventory, market trend, and main positions are also considered. The report points out that although there are current positive factors, there may be a technical correction in the later stage [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Data**: According to ICAC, in the 26/27 period, global cotton consumption is 25 million tons, and production is 24.8 million tons. The USDA March report shows that in the 25/26 period, the production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 period shows a production of 6.64 million tons, an import of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The data shows the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2025/26, and the monthly and year - on - year changes [11][12]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: Compares the 2025/26 and 2026/27 periods, showing that the production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4%, mainly from Brazil and the US; the consumption is relatively stable; the ending inventory is expected to decline by 1%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline slightly [13]. - **Domestic Cotton Data**: The Ministry of Agriculture's data on China's cotton from 2024/25 to 2025/26 includes sowing area, yield, import, consumption, ending inventory, and price range [15]. 3.5 Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The USDA's March report shows that global cotton production is up 247,000 tons, consumption is slightly down 30,000 tons, and the overall supply - demand report is bearish. However, due to the low price of US cotton and the recent sharp rise in energy prices, there is no pressure on the price of US cotton. The global cotton supply may still be relatively loose, but there is also strong support below. The market's focus is gradually shifting to the new season [1][2] Summary by Related Content 2025/26 Annual Supply - Demand Data Adjustment - **Production**: Global production is up 247,000 tons. China's production is up 109,000 tons to 7.729 million tons, and Brazil's production is up 164,000 tons to 4.246 million tons. US cotton production remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: Global consumption is down 30,000 tons month - on - month. China's consumption is up 109,000 tons to 8.6 million tons; Pakistan's consumption is down 43,000 tons, Bangladesh's is down 22,000 tons, and Vietnam's is down 22,000 tons [1] - **Imports**: Global imports are up 44,000 tons. Vietnam and Bangladesh's imports are down 22,000 tons each, Pakistan's is down 44,000 tons, and India's is up 174,000 tons [1] - **Exports**: Global exports are up 44,000 tons, with Australia's exports up 44,000 tons [1] - **Ending Inventory**: Global ending inventory is up 278,000 tons. China's ending inventory is flat, India's is up 174,000 tons, Brazil's is up 164,000 tons, Australia's is down 43,000 tons, and Argentina's is down 25,000 tons [2] Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: From 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 3, the total global production increased from 24.894 million tons to 26.343 million tons, with a monthly increase of 247,000 tons and an annual increase of 533,000 tons [3] - **Consumption**: The total global consumption decreased from 25.193 million tons in 2021/22 to 25.817 million tons in 2025/26 - 3, with a monthly decrease of 30,000 tons and an annual decrease of 79,000 tons [3] - **Imports**: The total global imports increased from 9.344 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.56 million tons in 2025/26 - 3, with a monthly increase of 44,000 tons and an annual increase of 190,000 tons [3] - **Exports**: The total global exports increased from 9.29 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.561 million tons in 2025/26 - 3, with a monthly increase of 44,000 tons and an annual increase of 327,000 tons [3] - **Ending Inventory**: The total global ending inventory increased from 15.5 million tons in 2021/22 to 16.631 million tons in 2025/26 - 3, with a monthly increase of 278,000 tons and an annual increase of 573,000 tons [3]