CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年3月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 利多：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。 年前下游补库。对美出口关税有所降低。中美关系有所 缓和。金三银四传统旺季到来。 1、基本面：ICAC：26/27全球消费2500万吨，产量2480万吨。2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预 计可能减幅超10%。USDA2月报：25/26年度产量2609.6万吨，消费2584.7万吨，期末库存 1635.3万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口 18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加13.33%。农村 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年2月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA2月报：25/26年度产量 2609.6万吨，消费2584.7万吨，期末库存1635.3万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部2月25/26年度：产量664万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存829万 吨。偏多。 6：预期：昨日郑棉冲高回落，短期利多集中体现，盘面存在有调整需求。基本面看，美国关 税有所下调， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: Global major economies are entering an easing cycle. After the US mid - term elections, fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be more aggressive. The US dollar index may oscillate between 95 - 97, reducing the pressure on US cotton. The USDA January report shows a tightening supply - demand pattern for global cotton in the 2025/26 season, with production down, consumption up, and ending stocks down [33]. - Domestic: The new cotton listing is nearing the end. The co - existence of high yield and rigid demand offsets supply pressure, maintaining a "tight balance" expectation. However, the influx of high - cost - effective imported cotton and yarn, along with insufficient downstream orders and squeezed spinning mill profits, still keep the market in a supply - surplus situation [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Trends - International cotton spot weekly average price dropped more than domestic, and the price difference between domestic and international cotton slightly widened. ICE cotton futures weekly average price was 64.08 cents/lb, down 0.75 cents/lb from the previous week. The Cotlook A index weekly average price was 74.55 cents/lb, down 0.32 cents/lb. The CC Index 3128B weekly average price was 15,853 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply - Demand - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production was adjusted down by 77,000 tons to 26 million tons, consumption was adjusted up by 68,000 tons to 25.891 million tons, and ending stocks decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.217 million tons [11]. 3.3 US Cotton Supply - Demand - In 2025/26, the US cotton planting area was 56.345 million mu, down 82,000 mu. The abandonment rate dropped to 15.9%, harvest area increased to 47.376 million mu. Yield per mu was 64 kg, down 5.5 kg. Production was 3.03 million tons, down 76,000 tons. Ending stocks decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [14]. 3.4 China Cotton Supply - Demand - Total supply: Beginning stocks were stable at 6.16 million tons, production was adjusted up by about 50,000 tons to 7.73 million tons, and annual import volume was expected to be 1.2 million tons. - Total demand: Spinning cotton consumption was adjusted up by 100,000 tons to 8.31 million tons. Ending stocks decreased by 50,000 tons to 6.41 million tons [16]. 3.5 US Cotton Grading and Inspection - As of January 22, 2026, the cumulative graded inspection of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 2.9374 million tons, with 81.9% meeting ICE futures delivery requirements. Among them, upland cotton was 2.8576 million tons and Pima cotton was 79,800 tons [20]. 3.6 China Cotton Inspection and Import - As of January 27, 2026, the national cotton notarized inspection volume in the 2025 season was 7.1952 million tons. In December 2025, China's cotton import volume was 180,000 tons, up 51.3% month - on - month and 31.0% year - on - year [22][23]. 3.7 China Cotton Yarn Import - In December 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 170,000 tons, up about 11.9% year - on - year and about 15.10% month - on - month [25]. 3.8 China Cotton Inventory - As of January 2026, China's domestic commercial cotton inventory was 5.8623 million tons, up 77,600 tons month - on - month, and industrial inventory was 998,700 tons, up 14,900 tons month - on - month [27]. 3.9 US Cotton Export - As of January 22, 2026, the US had cumulatively signed 1.766 million tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, reaching 66.51% of the expected annual exports, and had shipped 852,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 48.24% [28]. 3.10 Cotton Yarn Market - Cotton yarn futures oscillated, and spot prices rose slightly. Spinning mills' product inventories generally decreased, but new orders were insufficient, and profit margins were still tight [29].

Summary of Cotton Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The global cotton supply and demand for the 2025-2026 season is expected to be balanced, with supply around 26 million tons and demand approximately 25.89 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 62.6%, consistent with the averages of the past three to five years [1][2] - China's cotton market in 2026 is projected to be in a tight balance, with production estimated at 7.5 million tons, imports at 1 million tons, and total demand around 8.6 million tons, indicating a slightly tight market [1][2] - The U.S. cotton market is expected to have a relatively loose supply-demand balance due to a lack of demand from China, with exports to China accounting for only 5% of total exports in 2026 [2] Key Points on Cotton Prices - Future cotton prices will be influenced by several factors, including planting area reductions in the U.S., Brazil, China, and Australia, particularly in the U.S. due to low cotton prices and high planting costs [1][3] - The recent increase in cotton prices since November 2023 is driven by low valuations, rapid sales progress, expectations of reduced production in Xinjiang, and strong consumer performance [4][5] - The monthly consumption in China from September to December 2023 has been stable at around 750,000 tons, which, if maintained, would result in an annual consumption of 9 million tons, the best performance since the pandemic recovery [1][5] Factors Affecting Future Price Trends - Key factors to monitor for future cotton price trends include: 1. Changes in planting area policies in Xinjiang, with expectations of a 10% reduction [8] 2. Sustained monthly consumption levels around 750,000 tons [8] 3. National policies regarding stockpiling and quotas [8] 4. The price gap between domestic and international markets affecting import flows [8] U.S. Cotton Market Insights - U.S. cotton prices are currently at a near 10-year low, with the main contract at 64 cents, reflecting a long-term balance in supply and demand [9] - Recent weeks have seen a significant improvement in U.S. cotton export volumes, with exports reaching 84,000 tons in the week ending January 8, 2024, and 90,000 tons in the week ending January 15, 2024, marking the highest levels for this period in a decade [13] Brazilian Cotton Production - Brazil is expected to reduce cotton production in 2026 due to unfavorable price ratios with other crops, leading some farmers to switch to corn or leave land fallow [12] - The increase in planting costs, primarily driven by fertilizer prices, is not expected to significantly impact planting area due to prior purchases [16] Price Projections - If major cotton-producing countries like the U.S., Brazil, Australia, and China reduce their production, and global consumption remains stable or slightly increases, the market could shift from a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2026 to a deficit of 400,000 tons in the following year, potentially driving prices up from 67 cents to 77 cents [18] - Increased purchases of U.S. cotton by China could further elevate prices, potentially reaching 85 cents or higher if trade relations improve [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, pre - Spring Festival stocking provides some support with notable low - level buying. However, the significant increase in cotton and cotton yarn imports in December signals strong supply - side negatives, suppressing cotton prices and the textile industry in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [1][24]. - Internationally, the USDA's January cotton supply - demand report is bullish, with global cotton production cut, demand increased, and ending stocks decreased. ICE cotton futures are stabilizing, waiting for clear demand signals, showing an overall bullish adjustment pattern with limited downside [1][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In January, Zhengzhou cotton first soared, then declined, and finally entered a volatile phase. After the positive news of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang was realized, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton dropped from 15,095 yuan/ton to 14,430 yuan/ton and then fluctuated [3]. - The international cotton market was volatile at a low level in January. In the early part of the month, the rise of Zhengzhou cotton drove up US cotton, which reached 65.76 cents/pound and then declined with Zhengzhou cotton. The USDA report was bullish, and US cotton export data improved, leading to a relatively strong and volatile US cotton market [3]. 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Tightening Policy Implementation - The previously expected policy of tightening cotton supply in Xinjiang has been implemented. It is expected that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang for the 2026/27 season will be about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu (over 10% decrease) from the previous year. The policy was detailed at a meeting on January 9, 2026 [5]. - Reasons for the reduction include soaring planting costs (a 96% increase from 424.3 yuan to 830.6 yuan in the past three years), diluted subsidy benefits due to increased production, hindered quality improvement, water resource constraints, and external market challenges [6][7]. - Specific reduction measures target four key areas: low - quality and inefficient planting areas (especially those with yields below 350 kg/mu in southern Xinjiang), groundwater - over - exploited areas, illegally reclaimed land in 2022, and adjustments for 49,000 large - scale contractors to ensure fairness [8]. 3.2.2 Constraints from Price Differences and Textile Profits - In December 2025, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. High price differences between domestic and international markets led to increased imports. Cotton yarn imports have also increased since September [9]. - Textile profits improved when cotton prices declined from July 2025 but deteriorated as prices rose from November. Current orders cannot support a significant increase in raw material prices [13]. 3.2.3 Weakening Downstream Demand - As of January 16, the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises were 45.8% and 48.7% respectively, down from 49.5% in late November, providing limited support for raw materials [15]. - The finished - product inventory of downstream enterprises has changed. The cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises decreased by 1.4 days to 26.6 days, while the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 3.9 days to 36.4 days, reaching the second - highest level in five years [17]. 3.3 International Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bullish Impact of the Monthly Supply - Demand Report - The USDA's January cotton supply - demand report is bullish. Globally, cotton production decreased by over 350,000 bales, with production cuts in India, the US, Argentina, and Turkey, partially offset by a 1 - million - bale increase in China's forecast. Consumption increased by over 300,000 bales, with China's consumption rising but some decreases in Turkey and Nicaragua. Trade volume remained stable, and the 2025/26 global ending stocks were cut by 1.5 million bales, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio dropping below 63% [19]. 3.3.2 Improved US Cotton Exports - In the 2025/26 season, the total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton was 1.6231 million tons, accounting for 62% of the predicted annual export volume (2.61 million tons), and the cumulative export shipment volume was 748,000 tons, accounting for 46% of the total signed volume. - In the week ending January 8, US cotton export sales increased by 77,000 tons, a 247% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the four - week average. USDA's weekly signing reached a high for the year, with China signing over 10,000 tons and Vietnam also performing well [22]. 3.4 Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - Domestic cotton is likely to fluctuate before the Spring Festival due to supply - side pressure from imports despite pre - festival stocking support [1][24]. - International cotton shows a bullish adjustment pattern with limited downside as the USDA report is positive [1][24]. - The operational suggestion is to adopt a band - trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton [2][25]

Report Title - The title of the report is "South China Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Oscillatory Adjustment", dated January 16, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating Core Views - **Near - term**: Under the pressure of downstream profit squeeze and a significant increase in the internal - external price difference, there is an upper limit on cotton prices. However, the current load of yarn mills remains stable, and the expansion of spinning capacity supports cotton consumption. With relatively low overall downstream inventory pressure, short - term cotton prices may oscillate within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and order situations [9] - **Long - term**: In recent years, the domestic downstream textile production capacity has expanded significantly, and Xinjiang yarn mills have maintained high - load operations, increasing the rigid consumption of cotton raw materials. Although China's cotton production has increased significantly, it still needs to import foreign cotton to fill the gap. The probability of further issuing additional cotton import quotas is low, so the supply - demand of domestic cotton in the new year may still be tight. Attention should be paid to the demand side affected by policy changes in the new year, as well as the adjustment of the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy and its impact on farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [18][19] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The USDA's January global supply - demand forecast report slightly increased the price with a 7.7 - ton month - on - month decrease in US cotton production to 3.4% year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume reached 691.88 tons, a year - on - year increase of 76.03 tons. The daily average notarized inspection volume has recently dropped to around 3 tons, and the new - cotton notarization work is nearing completion. The domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory has significantly rebounded to a peak in recent years. However, restricted by import quotas, the overall supply increase in the new year has narrowed. With the expansion of cotton yarn production capacity, the rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the market expects a potential supply - demand shortage at the end of this year. There is also an expected reduction in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 season. But after the strengthening of domestic cotton prices, downstream spinning profits have been squeezed, the internal - external cotton price difference has widened significantly, and the inflow of imported yarn may increase periodically, pressuring the upper limit of cotton prices [2] 1.2 Transaction - Type Strategy Recommendations - The price range of CF2605 is predicted to be between 14,000 and 15,000. It is recommended to lay out long positions on CF2605 during pull - backs [21][23] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits and sell call options (CF2605C15200) to collect premiums and reduce costs [21] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (CF2605P14000) to collect premiums and reduce costs [21] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts (01, 05, 09) decreased last week, with respective decreases of 0.37%, 0.58%, and 0.77% [22] - **Spot Data**: The CC Index 3128B increased by 0.01%, while the CC Index 2227B and CC Index 2129B decreased by 0.01% and 0.03% respectively [22] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread increased by 30, the CF5 - 9 spread increased by 30, and the CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 60 [22] - **Import Price**: The FC Index M increased by 0.41%, and the FCY Index C32s increased by 0.2% [24] - **Cotton Yarn Data**: The futures price of cotton yarn decreased by 0.75%, and the spot price remained unchanged [24] Chapter 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive News**: As of January 8, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.9%, the selling rate was 99.5%, the processing rate was 94.5%, and the sales rate was 55.6%. In November, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased by 4.84% month - on - month and 4.19% year - on - year. In November 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased by 6.32% month - on - month and 9.84% year - on - year [25] - **Negative News**: In December 2025, the export of textiles and clothing decreased by 7.35% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the cumulative net contracted export volume of US cotton decreased by 13.99% year - on - year [27] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Attention should be paid to the release of domestic textile and clothing consumption data in China, flower and yarn import - export data, and US cotton weekly export data [28] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: At the beginning of last week, Zhengzhou cotton prices further declined under the influence of profit - taking. Both long and short positions significantly reduced, and the short - term trading enthusiasm in the market cooled. The RSI index fell to the neutral range, and prices entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [34] - **Monthly Spread Structure**: Currently, Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 shows a slight back structure supported by industrial end - taking, while contracts 05 and subsequent ones maintain a contango structure. The far - month contracts maintain the expectation of supply - demand tightness at the end of the year and have a stronger trend [37] - **Basis Structure**: This week, the cotton basis weakened slightly and then rebounded, remaining generally stable. The mainstream basis of machine - picked 31 - grade double 29/cotton with less than 3.5% impurity in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang, is mostly above CF05 + 850, and in northern Xinjiang, it is mostly above 1000 [40] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technological innovation, Xinjiang yarn mills have a cost advantage over those in the inland. Since September last year, domestic cotton prices have declined under the hedging pressure of ginning factories and the supply pressure of new - cotton listing, while yarn prices have remained relatively stable, and domestic yarn mill profits have recovered. However, since December, domestic cotton prices have oscillated upwards, and yarn prices have remained stable, squeezing yarn mill profits again. This week, cotton prices oscillated slightly upwards, yarn prices remained basically stable, and yarn mill profits continued to weaken slightly on a weekly basis [43] 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, the internal and external cotton prices have shown relatively independent trends. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is low, and the import volume has remained at a low level. In November 2025, China imported 12 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1 ton. The cumulative import volume in the 25/26 season is 31 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3 tons. This week, the internal and external cotton prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the import profit remained basically stable compared to last week [46] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A bumper harvest of Xinjiang cotton is expected in the new year. With the additional 20 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the 89.4 - ton 1% tariff quota issued in 2026, the expected new - year cotton import volume is 110 tons. The probability of further issuing additional sliding - scale tariff quotas is low. Downstream, domestic demand may maintain a mild recovery supported by domestic macro - policies, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports, supporting the expected domestic cotton consumption [48][49]

Market Overview - The cotton futures contract 2605 closed at 14,760 CNY/ton, an increase of 135 CNY/ton or 0.92% from the previous day [2][7] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,500 CNY/ton, down by 90 CNY/ton, while the national average price was 15,783 CNY/ton, a decrease of 74 CNY/ton [2][7] Supply and Demand Insights - According to the USDA's January cotton supply and demand forecast, the U.S. cotton planting area for 2025/26 is projected at 56.345 million acres, a decrease of 82,000 acres [2][7] - The abandonment rate is expected to drop to 15.9%, a reduction of 4.8 percentage points, leading to an increase in harvested area to 47.376 million acres, up by 2.647 million acres [2][7] - The yield is expected to be 64 kg/acre, down by 5.5 kg/acre, with total production forecasted at 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons [2][7] - Consumption is projected at 348,000 tons, showing a decrease of 5.9%, while exports are expected to remain stable at 2.656 million tons [2][7] - Ending stocks are anticipated to decrease by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2][7] Market Analysis - The Zheng cotton price experienced a rebound amid significant supply pressure from the new cotton harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, while global textile consumption remains weak [8] - The slow progress in U.S. cotton export contracts suggests continued pressure on prices in the short term, although the long-term outlook indicates that U.S. cotton is undervalued with limited downside potential [8] - Domestic cotton production is expected to continue to increase significantly, with commercial inventories rising seasonally [8] - Despite active stocking by yarn factories and traders before the holiday, downstream orders have declined, leading to slower sales of finished products and increased inventory, particularly in the grey fabric sector [8] Strategic Outlook - The current strategy is neutral, with short-term pressures from downstream transmission and price differentials, necessitating caution regarding potential high-level corrections [9] - The medium to long-term upward potential will depend on the actual implementation of target price policies and acreage reduction policies [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The USDA's January cotton monthly report is bullish as the US cotton production is下调 more than expected, the global production is slightly adjusted, the global cotton demand increases slightly, and the ending stocks are下调. Although the global cotton supply may still be relatively loose, the surplus pressure has decreased, and the low price of US cotton may drive a slight rebound. The planting situation in the Northern Hemisphere should be monitored in the medium term [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: The global production in the 2025/26 season is下调 by 77,000 tons. India's production is下调 by 108,000 tons, the US production is下调 by 77,000 tons, and Turkey's production is下调 by 44,000 tons, while China's production is上调 by 218,000 tons. The US yield per acre is下调 from 929 pounds to 856 pounds, the harvested area is上调 from 7.37 million acres to 7.8 million acres, and the planted area is slightly下调 from 9.3 million acres to 9.28 million acres [1]. - **Consumption**: The global consumption in the 2025/26 season is环比上调 by 68,000 tons, with China's consumption上调 by 109,000 tons to 8.491 million tons, and the overall global consumption remains stable [1]. - **Imports**: The global cotton imports in the 2025/26 season are环比上调 by 5,000 tons. Turkey's imports are下调 by 21,000 tons, and India's imports are上调 by 43,000 tons, while the other major importing countries remain unchanged [1]. - **Exports**: The global exports are上调 by 6,000 tons. Australia's exports are上调 by 44,000 tons, and India's exports are上调 by 22,000 tons [1]. - **Ending Stocks**: The global ending stocks in the 2025/26 season are环比下调 by 324,000 tons. China's ending stocks are上调 by 109,000 tons, India's ending stocks are下调 by 261,000 tons, the US ending stocks are下调 by 66,000 tons, and Australia's ending stocks are下调 by 43,000 tons [2]. Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: The total global production in the 2025/26 - January is 26.004 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 208,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Consumption**: The total global consumption in the 2025/26 - January is 25.891 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Imports**: The total global imports in the 2025/26 - January are 9.527 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Exports**: The total global exports in the 2025/26 - January are 9.53 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - **Ending Stocks**: The total global ending stocks in the 2025/26 - January are 16.217 million tons, a decrease of 324,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's January report on cotton shows that the reduction in U.S. cotton production exceeds market expectations, with a relatively small adjustment in global production, a slight increase in global cotton demand, and a downward adjustment in ending stocks, indicating a bullish impact [1]. - Although the global cotton supply may still be relatively loose, the surplus pressure has decreased, and the low price of U.S. cotton may drive a slight rebound. Medium - term attention should be paid to the planting situation in the Northern Hemisphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 Annual Supply - Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global production in the 25/26 season is down 77,000 tons. India's production is down 108,000 tons, the U.S. is down 77,000 tons, and Turkey is down 44,000 tons, while China's production is up 218,000 tons. The U.S. yield drops from 929 pounds per acre to 856 pounds per acre, the harvested area rises from 7.37 million acres to 7.8 million acres, and the planted area slightly decreases from 9.3 million acres to 9.28 million acres [1]. - **Consumption**: Global consumption in the 25/26 season is up 68,000 tons month - on - month, with China's consumption rising 109,000 tons to 8.491 million tons, and overall global consumption remains stable [1]. - **Imports**: Global cotton imports are up 5,000 tons month - on - month. Turkey's imports are down 21,000 tons, and India's imports are up 43,000 tons, with no adjustments for other major importers [1]. - **Exports**: Global exports are up 6,000 tons. Australia's exports are up 44,000 tons, and India's exports are up 22,000 tons [1]. - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in the 25/26 season are down 324,000 tons month - on - month. China's ending stocks are up 109,000 tons, India's are down 261,000 tons, the U.S. is down 66,000 tons, and Australia is down 43,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Unit: 10,000 tons) - **Production**: In 2025/26 - January, the total global production is 26.004 million tons, down 77,000 tons from the previous month and up 208,000 tons year - on - year [3]. - **Consumption**: The total global consumption is 25.891 million tons, up 68,000 tons from the previous month and down 5,000 tons year - on - year [3]. - **Imports**: The total global imports are 9.527 million tons, up 5,000 tons from the previous month and up 157,000 tons year - on - year [3]. - **Exports**: The total global exports are 9.53 million tons, up 6,000 tons from the previous month and up 300,000 tons year - on - year [3]. - **Ending Stocks**: The total global ending stocks are 16.217 million tons, down 324,000 tons from the previous month and up 157,000 tons year - on - year [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is basically balanced but shows an overall pattern of oversupply, with main supply growth points in China and Brazil, a decline in Australian output, and a significant reduction in Chinese consumption. The inventory - to - consumption ratio remains the same as last year [1]. - The U.S. cotton has had two consecutive years of bumper harvests, leading to a loose supply - demand situation in the international cotton market and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. Vietnam has become the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year, and U.S. cotton faces great export pressure due to the deteriorating global trade environment [1]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton market continues to have a loose supply - demand pattern. Benefiting from the release of Xinjiang's production capacity, the surplus cotton inventory in the market has been digested, but downstream orders have not improved substantially, squeezing textile enterprises' profits. The situation is unlikely to change in 2026, and attention should be paid to policies to boost consumption and their impact on commodity prices [1]. - China's cotton imports have shifted to Brazil and Australia. Brazil's cotton output has been hitting new highs, while Australia's output has been on a declining trend in recent years. The similar weather conditions in the two southern - hemisphere countries have increased supply uncertainty [2]. - In 2026, as the gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans widens and China's cotton target - price subsidy policy is to be adjusted, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term. The price upward drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [3]. Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review - In 2025, the Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a bottom - oscillating trend. From January to April, the price oscillated downward due to factors such as the market's over - heating correction, low inventory levels, consumption off - season, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions [10]. - From May to August, the cotton price rose as Sino - U.S. trade talks led to a reduction in tariff rates, and China's textile and clothing exports increased, along with a decline in industrial and commercial inventories [10]. - From September to October, the cotton price peaked and declined because of issues such as high delivery premiums and a high - opening - low - going new - cotton purchase price [11]. - From November to December, the cotton price rose again as Sino - U.S. trade negotiations made progress, tariffs were cancelled or postponed, and there were positive expectations for supply and demand [11]. 2. Supply - Demand Structure Analysis (1) Global - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton output increased slightly, consumption decreased slightly, and the supply - demand structure remained basically balanced. The main supply growth points were in China and Brazil, with a decline in Australian output, and the main consumption growth point was in Pakistan, but it could not offset the significant reduction in Chinese consumption [14]. - According to the USDA's December supply - demand report, the global cotton output in 2025/26 was 26.1142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.43%. Consumption was 25.857 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The ending inventory was 16.1615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.82%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio remained the same as last year [14]. - The gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans has been widening, and the substitution effect may continue, so global cotton output may be adjusted in the future [15]. (2) U.S. Cotton - In the 2025/26 season, U.S. cotton had a bumper harvest for the second consecutive year, leading to a loose international supply - demand situation and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. The output was 3.1109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the export was estimated to be 2.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [21]. - Affected by Sino - U.S. trade tensions, China's imports of U.S. cotton continued to decline. Vietnam became the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year. As of December 11, 2025, China had signed contracts for 60,000 tons of U.S. cotton, less than half of last year, while Vietnam had signed contracts for 430,000 tons [23]. - As of December 12, the U.S. cotton export and signing progress was slightly slower than last year, but the shipment - to - signing ratio increased by 9.46 percentage points to 41.16% [23]. (3) Brazil and Australia - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's cotton output was expected to be 4.0875 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.29%, with an export of 3.161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.36%. Australia's output was expected to be 981,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.64%, and the export was expected to be 1.1118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [28]. - Brazil's increasing output has increased supply liquidity and pressured import prices. Australia's output has been fluctuating and declining in recent years. The similar weather in the two southern - hemisphere countries has increased supply uncertainty [28]. (4) China - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton output was expected to reach a record high of 7.303 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.69%, consumption was expected to be 8.393 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28%, and imports were expected to be 1.1772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [32]. - China's state reserve has not carried out cotton rotation this year, and the domestic cotton inventory in the state reserve is estimated to be only 201,000 tons, at a relatively low level [32]. - China's cotton textile industry's PMI index has been hovering around the boom - bust line, indicating poor industry prosperity. The textile enterprises' operating rate is low, and the industry's profit is poor throughout the year [32]. - China's cotton market continued to have a loose supply - demand pattern in 2025/26. Although Xinjiang's production capacity has digested the surplus inventory, downstream orders have not improved, and it is difficult to change the situation in 2026 [33]. 3. Industry Operation Status (1) Seed - Cotton Cost, Production Enthusiasm, and Imports - In 2025, the cost of seed - cotton converted to lint was around 14,800 yuan/ton. China's cotton imports were only 900,000 tons this year, mainly from Brazil and Australia, and the proportion of U.S. cotton imports further decreased [37]. - Due to poor industry profits, the production enthusiasm of yarn and fabric enterprises was low, but the new production capacity in Xinjiang prevented a sharp increase in inventory [37]. - The current situation of low industry profits, high inventory, and low operating rates may continue [38]. (2) Domestic Demand and Export Trade - In 2025, domestic consumption was strong, with the cumulative retail sales of clothing and textile products increasing year - on - year, but export trade deteriorated, with the export of clothing and textile products decreasing year - on - year [41]. - In 2026, the international trade environment is more complex. Although the Sino - U.S. agreement to cancel a 24% tariff provides a short - term calm period, textile and clothing exports still face many difficulties [41]. 4. Future Outlook - In recent years, global cotton supply - demand has been stable but lackluster. In 2025, the supply - demand was basically balanced, and cotton prices were at a low level. In 2026, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term, and the market's long - short game may intensify from January to April [45]. - China's cotton textile industry has been shifting to Xinjiang, and the new production capacity in Xinjiang in 2026 will help stabilize cotton demand. Although the export of textile and clothing products will still face pressure, the short - term tariff suspension between China and the U.S. is conducive to the recovery of foreign trade [45]. - Overall, cotton prices are at a historical low, increasing price volatility. In 2026, the upward price drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [46].