交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口267.7亿 美元，同比下降0.1%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增 加15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823 万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15235，基差1115（01合约），升水期货；偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The overall market remains under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after rebounds [7]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Since the 2021/22 season, due to the impact of the macro - economy and the pandemic, cotton consumption has been frustrated, while production has remained at a relatively high level. The domestic cotton market has shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the price center has moved down. In the 2024/25 season, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to be optimistic, but demand still faces pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose [13]. - **New Cotton Growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the output reached a high in recent years. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and there was a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Currently, the new cotton is growing well, but attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [19]. - **Inventory Situation**: The 2023/24 season had sufficient cotton supply and a high carry - over inventory. At present, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. However, industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still relatively high. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [23][24]. - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 25.0% from the previous month and 82.1% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3% [34][43]. Downstream Demand - **Demand Status**: Overseas interest - rate cuts are still uncertain, and the US tariff policy is also uncertain. The domestic policy is boosting the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Although downstream orders for gauze have improved recently, overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and the finished product inventory is high [47]. - **Retail and Export Data**: In July 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 9.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 83.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 2.6766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. From January to July, China's textile and clothing exports were 17.041 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [50]. Global Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Balance**: In the 2024/26 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will also recover significantly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to decline, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease [71]. - **US Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, the planting area of US cotton increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the output increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the output is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. Last week, US cotton export sales rebounded [72][73]. Spread and Basis - **Spread**: The report shows the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of cotton, and the data changes over time [100]. - **Basis**: The report presents the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09, and the data changes over time [102].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton present a neutral outlook. The 25/26 annual production and consumption data from different institutions show a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. The market is expected to enter the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, and if the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract can hold above the 14,000 mark, there will be further upward momentum. In the short term, it will fluctuate in the range of 14,050 - 14,250 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season of consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions' reports on the 25/26 annual cotton production and consumption data vary. For example, the ICAC 8 - month report shows a production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons; the USDA 8 - month report shows a production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. Customs data shows that in July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 annual data shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,234, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1109, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast of the ending inventory in July for the 25/26 annual is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position has decreased. The main trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the market sentiment is optimistic. If the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract can stabilize above the 14,000 mark, there will be further upward momentum. In the short term, it will fluctuate in the range of 14,050 - 14,250 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The report provides the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2024/25 (July and August data), as well as the monthly adjustments and year - on - year changes [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 annual, the global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is basically flat at 2.56 million tons; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26 (July forecast), data such as the beginning inventory, sowing area, harvest area, yield per unit area, production, import, consumption, ending inventory, domestic cotton 3128B average price, and Cotlook A index are provided [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The USDA August report shows a significant reduction in the US cotton planting and harvest areas due to drought, leading to a 302,000 - ton decrease in US cotton production to 2.877 million tons, while China's cotton production increases by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and global cotton production decreases by 391,000 tons month - on - month [6]. - Cotton demand is weak. Cotton prices are weaker than cotton yarn this week, with weak spot transaction prices. Spinning mills' inventory pressure has eased, and weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased [6]. - Cotton inventory is decreasing. The BCO reported that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The destocking speed is accelerating [6]. - The strategy is that there may be one more decline in the short - term for single - side trading, but in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy Zhengzhou cotton at low prices after the concentrated supply pressure is realized, as the USDA report is unexpectedly bullish and has established the lower support for US cotton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The USDA August report shows that the US cotton planting area is reduced by 8% to 9.3 million acres, and the harvest area is reduced by 15% to 7.4 million acres. The national cotton abandonment rate rises from 14% to 21% due to drought in the Southwest. US cotton production decreases by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons, China's production increases by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and global production decreases by 391,000 tons month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: Cotton prices are weaker than cotton yarn this week, with weak spot transaction prices. In the off - season, spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low, and their inventory pressure has eased. Weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased, and their inventory pressure has also decreased. Spinning profits have slightly expanded, and the loss in inland areas has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: The BCO reported that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The destocking speed is the fastest this year. Spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory continues to decline. Inland yarn mills' operation rate is still weak, with high finished - product inventory and decreasing raw - material inventory in the industrial chain [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 7,829, with 249 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 323,100 tons, the same as on August 8 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remains firm, and the spot transaction price drops with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang for the 09 contract is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of ginning mills this year is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. With some ginning mills in northern Xinjiang exiting and the poor overall demand outlook, the expected opening price for the new season is not high [6]. - **Macro**: Domestically, the economy shows a weak recovery pattern with insufficient effective demand. Overseas, the US economy is still in a downward channel, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with the first cut likely in September with a probability of over 90% [6]. - **Strategy**: There may be one more decline in the short - term for single - side trading, but in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy Zhengzhou cotton at low prices after the concentrated supply pressure is realized [6]. 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the global cotton supply - demand situation shows changes in various aspects such as initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory ratio. For example, the global production in 2025/26 (August) is 25.392 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 548,000 tons [10]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The production of main cotton - producing countries like China, the US, India, etc., shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. For example, China's production in 2025/26 is 6.858 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56% [11]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The consumption of main cotton - consuming countries shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. For example, global consumption in 2025/26 is 25.688 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.02% [12]. - **US Cotton**: The overall US inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is shifting from three - year destocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to factors such as the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks and tariff relaxation, the continuous restocking behavior is somewhat weakened [18]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new - season domestic cotton planting area is expected to expand, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas. The cotton commercial inventory in China is being destocked at a fast speed [22][24][40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term increase in cotton prices is significant, and it is advisable to wait for an adjustment. The market is currently in a state where supply and demand are both increasing, and news stimuli are needed to break the balance [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - Last week, both domestic and international cotton prices fluctuated upwards, basically recovering the losses at the end of July. ICE cotton rebounded significantly after the USDA's August supply - demand report lowered the US cotton production and inventory. Zhengzhou cotton also rose after the 90 - day extension of the US - China tariff exemption period [4][5][9]. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton futures first consolidated and then tended to strengthen. The futures price rebounded rapidly, and the basis weakened significantly [11][12][15]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In the August supply - demand report, the USDA predicted a global cotton supply - demand imbalance. The US cotton production was significantly lowered, while China's cotton production was raised as expected. The consumption in China and India showed an increase - decrease pattern, and the global cotton supply - demand was on the verge of balance [19]. - As of August 7, 2025, the national new cotton picking, processing, and sales rates were at high levels. The sales rate was 97.7%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points year - on - year and 8.4 percentage points compared to the average of the past four years [21][22]. - In June 2025, China's cotton import volume was 27,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.09%. The "rush to export" behavior in the textile and garment industry from April to June overdrew some orders, reducing the cotton import demand [23][24]. - In June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was about 109,000 tons. Although it ended the three - month consecutive month - on - month decline, the annual import demand was still in a contraction channel, with the cumulative import volume from January to June decreasing by 13.61% year - on - year [26][27]. Industry Operation - In July 2025, the cloth production was 2.7 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. It is expected that the production from July to August will remain weak, and the month - on - month decline may expand to 3% - 5% [32]. - In June 2025, textile exports were 12.048 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Clothing exports were 15.267 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The retail sales of domestic clothing in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year [34][35][39]. Inventory and Operation of Enterprises - In July 2025, China's cotton commercial inventory was at a four - year low, while the industrial inventory was increasing. The commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 588,400 tons, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91,400 tons [41][42]. - Spinning mills mainly digested cotton inventory, and the cotton yarn inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The opening rate of Chinese cotton spinning mills began to pick up, while the opening rates of Vietnamese and Indian spinning mills were at low levels [44][46][47]. - The spinning profit of domestic spinning mills was stable. The cotton yarn inventory of grey fabric mills continued to replenish, and the inventory of imported yarn at ports rebounded [56][57][59]. Fund Position By August 5, the fund's cotton position was a net short position of 55,882 lots, indicating that the fund continued to increase short positions before the USDA report [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 global cotton production is revised down by 391,000 tons month-on-month, with a significant reduction in US cotton production exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp rise in US cotton prices [1]. - The 2025/26 global cotton consumption is revised down by 30,000 tons, and the impact of China-US relations on the demand for US cotton in the new season is significant [1]. - The 2025/26 global cotton imports and exports are both weak, with imports decreasing by 239,000 tons and exports by 240,000 tons [2]. - The 2025/26 global ending inventory is revised down by 742,000 tons, with a large - scale reduction, and continued attention should be paid to the weather in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries and the progress of China - US trade relations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - US cotton: The planted area is revised down from 10.12 million acres in July to 9.28 million acres, the harvested area from 8.66 million acres to 7.36 million acres, and the yield per acre is raised from 809 pounds to 862 pounds. The final production is revised down by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons [1]. - Chinese cotton: The production is revised up by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons [1]. - Global cotton: The production is revised down by 391,000 tons month - on - month [1]. Consumption - Chinese consumption: It is revised up by 218,000 tons [1]. - Indian consumption: It is revised down by 109,000 tons [1]. - Bangladeshi consumption: It is revised down by 65,000 tons [1]. - Turkish consumption: It is revised down by 43,000 tons [1]. - Global consumption: It is revised down by 30,000 tons [1]. Import - Bangladeshi imports: They are revised down by 65,000 tons [2]. - Chinese imports: They are revised down by 109,000 tons to 1.154 million tons [2]. - Turkish imports: They are revised down by 43,000 tons [2]. - Indian imports: They are revised down by 22,000 tons [2]. - Global imports: They are revised down by 239,000 tons [2]. Export - US exports: They are revised down by 109,000 tons [2]. - Malian exports: They are revised down by 22,000 tons [2]. - Global exports: They are revised down by 240,000 tons [2]. Ending Inventory - Chinese ending inventory: It is revised down by 446,000 tons [2]. - Indian ending inventory: It is revised up by 108,000 tons [2]. - Brazilian ending inventory: It is revised down by 110,000 tons [2]. - US ending inventory: It is revised down by 218,000 tons [2]. - Global ending inventory: It is revised down by 742,000 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August 2025/26 cotton monthly report shows significant adjustments in global cotton supply and demand data, with a sharp decline in US cotton production exceeding market expectations, leading to a substantial increase in US cotton prices. Continued attention should be paid to the weather conditions in major northern hemisphere producing countries and the progress of China-US trade relations [1][2]. Summary by Content Production - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production decreased by 391,000 tons month-on-month. US cotton production decreased significantly, with the planting area reduced from 10.12 million acres in July to 9.28 million acres, the harvested area reduced from 8.66 million acres to 7.36 million acres, and the yield per acre increased from 809 pounds to 862 pounds, resulting in a monthly decrease of 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons. China's cotton production increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons [1]. Consumption - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton consumption decreased by 30,000 tons month-on-month. China's consumption increased by 218,000 tons, while India's consumption decreased by 109,000 tons, Bangladesh's decreased by 65,000 tons, and Turkey's decreased by 43,000 tons [1]. Import and Export - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton imports decreased by 239,000 tons month-on-month, with Bangladesh, China, Turkey, and India all experiencing declines. Global exports decreased by 240,000 tons, with the US and Mali seeing significant drops, indicating weak global import and export demand [2]. Ending Inventory - In the 2025/26 season, the global ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons month-on-month. China's ending inventory decreased by 446,000 tons, while India's increased by 108,000 tons, Brazil's decreased by 110,000 tons, and the US's decreased by 218,000 tons [2].

Report Title - The report is titled "Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report 20250808: New Cotton Growth Generally Good, Focus on Peak Season Demand Boost" [1][2][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The short - term macro situation has uncertainties, demand expectations are weak, new cotton planting area may continue to increase, and structural supply has attracted market attention, forming a phased support. In the medium and long term, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, domestic production may remain high, demand expectations are poor, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve. Therefore, the rebound space of cotton is limited, the overall market is still under pressure, and the operation suggestion is to short after the rebound [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand Balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic, cotton consumption was frustrated, but production remained at a relatively high level, and domestic cotton shifted from destocking to stockpiling with a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In 2025/26, production is expected to be good, but demand is still under pressure due to macro and policy disturbances, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. According to the July 2025 cotton information network data, in 2025/26, cotton production is expected to be at a high level, consumption is basically stable, imports have decreased significantly, and the ending inventory has decreased [12][13] - **New Cotton Growth**: Cotton is usually sown in May and harvested in mid - September. In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached about 685 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and under normal climate conditions, the new - season output is expected to be high, and currently, the new cotton growth is generally good, with the whole Xinjiang cotton entering the peak flowering and boll - setting stage [19] - **Inventory Situation**: In the 2023/24 season, cotton supply was sufficient with a high carry - over inventory. Currently, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. The market is concerned about the possible short - term structural supply shortage, but the industrial inventory remains at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still high. As of the end of June, the commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons from the previous month, and the industrial inventory was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.81 million tons from the previous month [23][24] - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened, and attention should be paid to cotton imports. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous month and an 82.1% decrease from the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% decrease year - on - year [34][43] - **Downstream Demand**: Overseas interest - rate cuts and US tariff policies are uncertain, and the Xinjiang cotton issue remains unresolved, so the foreign trade situation is expected to be severe. Although domestic policies are boosting the economy, the demand recovery remains to be seen. Recently, the sales of downstream yarns in some areas have improved, and grey - cloth orders have increased, but overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and finished - product inventory has increased. In June 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 127.5 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 13.078 billion US dollars, a 0.76% increase year - on - year [47][52] Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as state - reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the state - reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [55][57] Global Supply and Demand - **Overall Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered significantly, and the stock - to - use ratio has increased slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to decrease slightly, demand will recover, and the ending inventory will continue to increase. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the growth and harvest period with an optimistic production outlook, while the major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growth period. The weather in the US cotton - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing in India is behind schedule compared with the same period last year [66] - **Major Countries' Situations** - **United States**: In the 2024/25 season, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvest area remained high, the yield per unit is expected to decrease, and production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but subsequent demand remains to be tracked. Last week, US cotton contract signings declined, and shipments increased [72] - **Brazil**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% increase year - on - year [72] - **India**: As of July 18, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year [72] Spread and Basis - The report provides data and trends on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread, 5 - 9 spread) and basis (such as cotton 01 basis, 05 basis, 09 basis) [79][84]

Report Title - "20250809 Cotton Weekly Report: As the Golden September and Silver October Approach, Focus on Short - Long Opportunities Before the New Cotton Goes on the Market" [1] Core View - With the approaching of the Golden September and Silver October, attention should be paid to short - long opportunities before the new cotton goes on the market. Compared with the June forecast, the data adjustment this time is bearish, with the increase in production exceeding that in consumption, leading to an expected increase in global ending inventory in the new year. However, there may be further room for adjustment in China's production, and the optimistic global consumption forecast may lead to a further increase in ending inventory [4][5] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance (July) Production - In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month - on - month to 2.578 million tons. China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons to 674,900 tons, the US by 131,000 tons to 304,800 tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 108,900 tons [4] Consumption - Global consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month - on - month to 2.5718 million tons. Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 237,300 tons [5] Trade - Global imports and exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month - on - month. China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons to 126,300 tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 128,400 tons [5] Ending Inventory - Global ending inventory in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month - on - month to 1.6833 million tons. China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 807,000 tons, and the US's by 65,000 tons to 100,100 tons [5] Cotton and Yarn Spot and Futures Cotton Spot and Futures - Cotton prices increased during the week, and the basis was relatively strong [6] Yarn Spot and Futures - Yarn prices were weak during the week, and the terminal's price - holding ability was poor [11] Supply Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory - This week, the national industrial and commercial cotton inventory decreased by 150,400 tons to 2.8637 million tons, lower than the same period by 97,100 tons. The available days of pure - cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.06 days to 31.93 days, and the terminal grey fabric inventory increased by 0.42 days to 30.99 days. The finished product replenishment speed slowed down further [14] Imported Cotton and Yarn - In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 74.3%. In June, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons [16] Cotton Warehouse Receipts - As of August 8, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou decreased by 432 to 8,252, with 330 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,582, equivalent to 343,280 tons of cotton. As cotton prices stabilized after falling, the willingness of some cotton - using enterprises to take over warehouse receipts at low prices increased [18] Demand Factory Operation Rate and Profit - This week, the spinning mill operation rate decreased by 0.9% to 65.7%, and the weaving mill operation rate decreased by 0.1% to 37%. The spinning mill orders decreased by 0.49 days to 6.84 days. The on - the - spot profit of the mainstream yarn in the inland increased to - 1,595.8 yuan/ton, and the expected profit of enterprises in Xinjiang recovered to 400 yuan/ton [20] Market Transactions - This week, the total turnover in the Light Textile City decreased by 282,000 meters to 4.622 million meters, and the cotton cloth turnover decreased by 60,000 meters to 170,000 meters. In Keqiao, the accessory price decreased by 2.29 to 114.15, and the fabric price increased by 1.46 to 112.12 [23] Social Consumption - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the cumulative total was 2.45458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles of enterprises above the designated size in June reached 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [24] Export Situation - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 170.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July, the export was 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. In June, China's clothing and textile exports to the US increased, while those to the EU and ASEAN showed different trends [27][33] Industry PMI - In June, the cotton textile industry PMI decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New order PMI increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the operation rate PMI increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. The yarn inventory PMI increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94% [35] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors increased slightly [36]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which temporarily stopped falling and consolidated sideways. The ICAC 8 - month report and USDA 7 - month report provide different 2025/26 annual production and consumption data. Customs data shows that textile and clothing exports in July decreased year - on - year, and cotton imports in June decreased significantly year - on - year while cotton yarn imports increased slightly. The Sino - US trade negotiation has been postponed, and the textile export data in July is not ideal. Currently in the consumption off - season, the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 1) Previous Day Review This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which stopped falling and consolidated sideways. There are different data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory from various institutions. The Sino - US trade negotiation is postponed, and textile export data is not good [4]. 2) Daily Tips - **Likely Positive Factors**: Reduction of previous Sino - US mutual tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3) Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 4) Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (July)**: In 2024/25, the total global cotton production is 2578.3 million tons, with different production changes in various countries. Consumption is also different among countries, with a total of [not clearly stated]. Import and export volumes vary by country, and the global期末库存 is 1683.5 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 2590 million tons, consumption is 2560 million tons,期末库存 is 1710 million tons, and the global trade volume is 970 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents/pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In 2025/26, China's cotton production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and期末库存 is 823 million tons. The domestic cotton 3128B average price is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 5) Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.