光期研究 见微知著 棉花策略月报 202 6 年 0 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：植棉面积调控预期较强，价格有支撑 近期新疆维吾尔自治区棉花协会发布题为《2026年新疆棉花种植面积将迎来结构性压缩》的文章。文中提到，为落实自治区党委、政府工作部署，切实将调减棉花种植 面积的各项措施落实到位，2025年12月23日，自治区棉花产业发展领导小组办公室召开调减新疆棉花种植面积专题会议。会上指出，调减棉花种植面积是适应市场需求 变化、优化区域农业资源配置、缓解水资源环境压力、保障重要农产品稳定安全供给的关键举措。2026年棉花种植面积调减已经确定，新年度棉花产量下降预期较强是 近期行情驱动的主要因素之一。 需求端：棉纺需求有韧性，但近期纺织企业开机负荷环比有小幅下降趋势。 1、截至12月26日当周，纱线综合负荷为50.1%，周环比下降0.5百分点；纯棉纱厂负荷为46.86%，周环比下降0.54个百分点。2、截至12月26日当周，短纤布综合负荷为 51.26%，周环比下降0.04个百分点；全棉坯布负荷为48 ...

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 棉花 弱现实强预期 供需共振震荡向暖 F0232181 Z000183 撰写日期：2025.12.25 贾晖 Z000183 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 2026 商品年度报告 回顾今年棉花市场，2025年呈现内外盘分化震荡格局。郑棉受中美关税波动、 全球丰产预期与下游韧性博弈影响，全年宽幅震荡；美棉则在供需过剩与出口疲 软的压制下，维持60-70美分/磅低位运行。核心供需层面，国内25/26年度棉花产 量达近十年峰值，新疆种植面积增长，但南疆单产分化；商业库存处于高位，但 后续去化超预期。全球主产国供应增量有限，美棉受棉粮比价制约植棉意愿，巴 西植棉产量创新高且出口延续优势。需求端，国内纺企开机率具韧性，新疆产能 扩张支撑刚需，出口以价换量后盼海外补库，终端消费以刚需为主。 中辉期货研究院 贾晖 从业资格证号： 投资咨询证号： 展望2026年，郑棉行情核心逻辑围绕新疆直补政策调整与需求边际修复共振 展开，预计整体呈"底部支撑强化、区间震荡抬升" ...

现货偏紧，价格偏强 长江期货棉纺月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-12-26 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 01 走势回顾：12月郑棉震荡偏强 02 供应端分析：新季全球供需平衡 03 需求端分析：下游需求韧性较强 04 逻辑与展望：现货偏紧，价格偏强 目 录 05 01 走势回顾：12月郑棉震荡偏强 01 12月棉、纱震荡偏强 数据来源：博易大师、中国棉花信息网、TTEB、IFIND、长江期货 Ø 12月郑棉震荡偏强。核心原因是今年现货销售顺利，销售进度明显高于往年。同时对下年度的新疆缩减种植面积有较大的预期。 Ø 棉纱方面，主要跟随棉花走势，但纺纱利润压缩。随着新疆产能的继续大幅扩张，对内地形成较大压制。 02 供应端分析：新季全球供需平衡 02 全球供需平衡表：供需平衡 | | 25/26 Dec 25 25/26 Nov 25 | | 23/24 | 22/23 | 21/22 | 20/21 | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1.1 核心矛盾 当前新年度疆棉丰产落地，截至2025年12月25日，全国新年度棉花公证检验量累计606.41万吨，近日平均日 度公检量已降至5.5万吨左右，国内棉花商业库存显著回升，但在上年度低库存的现实基础与新年度低进口的 未来预期下，国内新年度整体供应增幅缩窄，现货价格坚挺，下游随着国内纺纱产能扩张，且新疆纱厂维持 高负荷运行，棉花刚需消费提升，内需在宏观政策支持下呈温和增长的态势，而中美关税的下调有利于我国 纺服出口的恢复，国内棉花消费得到支撑，使得新年度国内棉花供需预期偏紧，同时，本年度为三年一定的 目标价格补贴政策的最后一年，在新疆粮食保供方针及新疆水资源问题下，市场对明年政策调整的预期较 强，本周新疆当地组织召开会议制定棉花种植面积调减方案，市场对下年度疆棉面积缩减的预期进一步加 强，导致近期棉价重心持续且加速上移。 中国棉花累计检验量季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 南华期货棉花棉纱周报 ——供给预期持续发酵，棉价加速上行 2025/12/26 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利多：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。 年前下游补库。对美出口关税比前期降低10%。 利空：总体外贸订单下降，库存增加。新棉大量上市。 目前处于传统消费淡季。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花现货市场价 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The current new - season Xinjiang cotton harvest is abundant, and domestic commercial inventories have rapidly rebounded. In the short term, there is still supply and hedging pressure above. However, based on the low inventory from the previous year and the expected low imports in the new year, the overall increase in domestic supply in the new year has narrowed. Downstream, domestic spinning capacity has expanded, Xinjiang yarn mills have maintained high - load operations, and the rigid demand for cotton consumption has increased. Domestic demand shows a moderate growth trend supported by macro - policies. At the same time, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports, supporting domestic cotton consumption. The supply - demand outlook for domestic cotton in the new year is expected to be tight, and the center of cotton prices is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to whether the Xinjiang target price subsidy policy will be adjusted next year, as the area of new - season Xinjiang cotton is still variable. The predicted range for Zhengzhou cotton is around 13,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: In 2025, Zhengzhou cotton fell rapidly in the second quarter and then rebounded, fluctuating in the range of 13,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton with low volatility. At the beginning of the year, domestic textile enterprises replenished raw materials rigidly at low prices, but with high cotton inventories, cotton prices fluctuated. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, due to the significant increase in US foreign tariffs, Zhengzhou cotton dropped sharply, but after the Sino - US talks, the tariff policy was postponed, and cotton prices rebounded. With low domestic imported cotton and better - than - expected downstream demand, Xinjiang cotton destocked quickly, and the year - end inventory was low, so cotton prices were strong. However, with the upcoming new cotton listing and a large number of pre - sales for the new year, ginneries hedged in advance under the expectation of a bumper Xinjiang cotton harvest, and cotton prices fell before the acquisition period, then fluctuated slightly with the new - season output expectation [1]. - **US Cotton**: In 2025, US cotton fluctuated narrowly in the range of 63 - 70 cents/pound. At the beginning of the year, the export progress of the 24/25 US cotton season was slow, and the unpriced purchase contracts and non - commercial short positions were high, with significant upward pressure. After the implementation of the US import tariff increase policy, cotton prices tested down to around 60 cents/pound, but after the annual export target was completed, cotton prices recovered. Then, US cotton fluctuated narrowly under the expectations of slow export contracts and a decline in new - cotton output. With the upward adjustment of the global output expectation, the global cotton supply - demand outside China was loose, and the trend of US cotton was weakening [6]. 3.2 Core Concerns 3.2.1 Xinjiang Cotton Output Reaches a New High, Pay Attention to Next Year's Policy Adjustment - **Output**: The new - season Xinjiang cotton output is expected to be high. The initial national estimate is that the average yield per mu in Xinjiang is 171.8 kg, an increase of 3.7% year - on - year, and the output is 704.7 tons, an increase of 12.2% year - on - year. The national total cotton output is expected to be 740.9 tons, an increase of 11.0% year - on - year. The current market mainstream estimates that Xinjiang's output has increased to 730 - 750 tons, and the China Cotton Information Network has adjusted the national output expectation to 767.9 tons, an increase of 12% year - on - year, with Xinjiang's output increasing to 736.9 tons. As of December 15, 2025, the national new - season cotton notarized inspection volume was 544.05 tons, an increase of 13.89% year - on - year [8]. - **Acquisition**: This year, there are 1069 target - price reform processing enterprises in Xinjiang. The cotton processing capacity is still in excess, but ginneries have low risk preferences, and the new - cotton acquisition price is relatively stable. There were many pre - sales of new cotton this year, and the sales speed was fast. Some enterprises hedged in advance, causing Zhengzhou cotton to fall before the National Day, and the overall new - cotton acquisition price was low. The acquisition price in southern Xinjiang is slightly higher than that in northern Xinjiang, and there is still some high - cost new cotton in southern Xinjiang to be hedged [8][10]. - **Policy**: This year is the last year of the 18,600 yuan/ton target - price subsidy policy for cotton. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the subsidy policy next year and its impact on farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [10]. 3.2.2 Imports Remain Low, Quota Supply is Limited - **Import Volume**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 900,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year, and cumulative棉纱 imports were 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons year - on - year. The domestic - foreign cotton price difference has been at a relatively high level, and the import profit is considerable, but the import quota is limited. The 1% import tariff quota for cotton in 2026 remains at 894,000 tons, plus the additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued at the end of August 2025. The probability of further increasing the cotton import quota is low, and the new - year import volume is expected to be around 1.1 million tons, similar to the 24/25 season [13]. 3.2.3 Demand is Resilient, Pay Attention to Policy Support - **Domestic Demand**: From January to November 2025, the retail sales of domestic clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles totaled 1.37029 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.91% year - on - year. Since August, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic textile and clothing retail sales has exceeded that of social consumer goods retail sales. The China Cotton Textile PMI has been rising since the third quarter and returned above the boom - bust line in October. In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, domestic textile enterprises' order - receiving situation improved later. With the decline in cotton prices, spinning profits were repaired, and downstream product destocking was good. The expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and the high - load operation of yarn mills have increased the rigid demand for cotton. With the continuous influence of consumption - promotion policies next year, domestic terminal textile and clothing sales are expected to maintain a moderate growth trend [18][19]. - **Export Demand**: From January to November 2025, China's total textile and clothing export volume was 267.853 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.09% year - on - year. Since July, exports have declined continuously. After the Sino - US summit in October, the US tariff policy was adjusted, which is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. In November, exports rebounded month - on - month. From January to October 2025, China's cotton - product exports totaled 55.086 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.45% year - on - year, and the export volume was 6.1442 million tons, an increase of 7.76% year - on - year, showing a "quantity - for - price" situation, which still supports cotton consumption [22][23]. 3.2.4 Low Cotton - Grain Price Ratio in the US, Slow Cotton Export Progress - **Output**: In the 25/26 season, due to the low cotton - grain price ratio in the US, the cotton - planting area decreased. However, the drought in Texas has been significantly alleviated, the national cotton abandonment rate has decreased by 5.28 percentage points to 20.7%, and the yield per mu has increased by 4.9% to 69.4 kg. The USDA predicts that the US cotton output in the 25/26 season will be 3.106 million tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. If the cotton - grain price ratio remains low before the planting season next year, it may further suppress farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [25]. - **Export**: As of November 20, 2025, the US's cumulative net export contracts for 25/26 - season cotton were 1.306 million tons, a decrease of 262,000 tons year - on - year, reaching 49.16% of the annual expected export volume. China's cumulative import contracts for 25/26 - season US cotton were only 39,000 tons, a decrease of 112,000 tons year - on - year. Vietnam's cumulative import contracts were 379,000 tons, accounting for 29.02% of the contracted US cotton. Pakistan's cumulative import contracts were 138,000 tons, accounting for 10.57% of the contracted US cotton. US cotton exports have been affected by high tariffs, and the export progress has been slow. In the future, with the competition from Brazilian cotton exports, attention should be paid to changes in US foreign tariff policies [30]. 3.2.5 Abundant Foreign New - Cotton Supply, Loose Global Supply - Demand Outlook According to the USDA's December global cotton supply - demand report, the global cotton output in the 25/26 season is expected to be 26.081 million tons, an increase of 111,000 tons year - on - year. China and Brazil continue to increase production, and the US's production decline is narrower than previously expected. The global cotton output is at a relatively high historical level. The global cotton consumption is expected to be 25.823 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton ending inventory is expected to be 16.541 million tons, an increase of 296,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of trade policies between countries and the impact of US interest - rate cuts on terminal consumption [35]. 3.3 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook The new - season Xinjiang cotton harvest is abundant, and domestic commercial inventories have rebounded rapidly. In the short term, there is supply and hedging pressure. However, due to the low inventory in the previous year and the expected low imports in the new year, the increase in domestic supply has narrowed. Downstream demand is strong, and domestic cotton consumption is supported. The new - year domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight, and cotton prices are expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the Xinjiang target - price subsidy policy next year, as the area of new - season Xinjiang cotton is still variable [37].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（12.8-12.12） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花继续震荡上行，基本面有所改善，对美关税稳定，外贸出口信心提高。 ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5 万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口222.62亿美元， 同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14万吨，同比增加 16.7%。农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万 吨。 对美出口关 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 棉花：供需调整幅度较小，报告偏中性 USDA 棉花月度报告解读 2025/26年度供需数据调整情况: 美国农业部12月份的报告中，对主要生产国的供需数据调整幅度较小，报告影响总体偏中性。25/26年度全球产 量下调6.4万吨，其中美国产量继续上调，美棉产量上调3.4万吨至310.7万吨，其余主产国均未作调整。12月份 的报告种美棉的收获面积未作调整,单产进行了上调，单产从11月份的919磅/英亩上调至929磅/英亩。 25/26年度全球消费下调6万吨,巴西消费下调2.2万吨，其余主要消费国均未作调整,消费数据总体持稳。 25/26年度棉花进口环比下调5.9万吨,其中越南进口下调2.1万吨,盖加拉进口下调2.2万吨,中国进口未作调 整，目前中美贸易协定对于中国进口美棉或没有强制性的要求。全球出口下调5.6万吨，主要出口国均未作调 整。 全球25/26期末库存环比小幅上调0.9万吨，其中中国期末库存下调0.1万吨，美国期末库存上调4.4万吨，巴西 期末库存上调4.5万吨。全球主要棉花生产国的期末库存调整幅度均不大，25/26年度主要的棉花主产国的产量 以丰产或高产为主，全球需求总体表现一般,因 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 棉花：供需调整幅度较小，报告偏中性 USDA 棉花月度报告解读 2025/26年度供需数据调整情况: 美国农业部12月份的报告中，对主要生产国的供需数据调整幅度较小，报告影响总体偏中性。25/26年度全球产 量下调6.4万吨，其中美国产量继续上调，美棉产量上调3.4万吨至310.7万吨，其余主产国均未作调整。12月份 的报告种美棉的收获面积未作调整,单产进行了上调，单产从11月份的919磅/英亩上调至929磅/英亩。 25/26年度全球消费下调6万吨,巴西消费下调2.2万吨，其余主要消费国均未作调整,消费数据总体持稳。 25/26年度棉花进口环比下调5.9万吨,其中越南进口下调2.1万吨,盖加拉进口下调2.2万吨,中国进口未作调 整，目前中美贸易协定对于中国进口美棉或没有强制性的要求。全球出口下调5.6万吨，主要出口国均未作调 1 | 单位:万吨 | 全球棉花供需平衡表 | 2025/26-11月 | 2021/22 2022/23 | 2023/24 2024/25 | 2025/26-12月 | 月度变化 年度变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

南华期货棉花棉纱周报 ——棉价震荡波动，关注上方压力 2025/12/5 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 * 近端交易逻辑 当前新棉加速上市，但下游存在韧性，虽处于传统淡季时期，但部分板块订单情况良好且纱厂保持一定利 润，在新棉最终产量未有超预期上调下，棉价下方空间有限，关注13800附近套保压力突破情况。 . .. 中国棉花采摘进度季节性 source： 国家棉花市场监测系统,南华研究 % 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 09/15 09/29 10/13 10/27 11/10 11/24 12/08 12/22 0 25 50 75 100 中国棉花交售进度季节性 source： 国家棉花市场监测系统,南华研究 % 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 11/01 01/01 03/01 05/01 0 25 50 75 100 中国纯棉纱厂负荷季节性 中国全棉坯布负荷季节性 截至2025年12月4日，全国新年度棉花公证检验量累计464.36万吨，近日疆棉平均日度公检 ...