Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to continue its oscillating trend in the short - term, with support around 13,000 yuan/ton and resistance around 13,500 yuan/ton. Internationally, U.S. cotton remains weak due to Sino - U.S. tensions but has some buying support at low levels and is also boosted by the weak dollar [57]. - The recommended trading strategy is short - term trading [58]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded slightly this week with a weekly increase of 0.08%, while ICE cotton futures declined and then recovered, with a weekly decrease of 0.1% [11]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index dropped. The 3128 index fell by 75 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index dropped by 96 yuan/ton [16]. - **Import Situation**: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the first half of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons from the second half of August [22]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [29]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices fell. The price of rotor - spun 10 - count cotton yarn decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the price of carded 32 - count cotton yarn decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of combed 40 - count cotton yarn decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 134. There were 2,724 warehouse receipts and 112 valid forecasts, totaling 2,836 [40]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase**: The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased slightly compared to last week [46]. - **U.S. Cotton Exports**: As of September 11, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 19,000 bales [48][51]. - **U.S. Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. accounted for 34.2% [54]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton maintained a low - level oscillating trend this week. Seed cotton purchase prices rose, but the quality and lint percentage in northern Xinjiang declined. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is ending, and downstream orders are insufficient, so Zhengzhou cotton is likely to continue oscillating [57]. - **International Market**: The U.S. government shutdown led to data suspension, and Sino - U.S. relations became the focus. Tensions between the two countries suppressed U.S. cotton, but there was buying support at low levels and the weak dollar provided some boost [57].