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光大期货软商品日报-20250826
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short - term, driven by macro sentiment. After the new cotton is launched, it will face both the impact of increased supply and the potential "scramble for purchase" risk. Attention should be paid to the purchase price of seed cotton, as well as macro, weather, and expected opening price [2]. - Sugar is expected to continue its narrow - range volatile market until new information breaks the balance. The domestic market is in the double - festival stocking period with moderate trading, and the international market is still trading around the Brazilian sugar - crushing progress [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.93% to 67.38 cents per pound, while CF601 rose 0.75% to 14,120 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 19,701 lots to 504,600 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,100 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,235 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, and the release of a 200,000 - ton sliding - duty quota for cotton in 2025 in the domestic market eases some concerns about inventory shortages [2]. - **Sugar**: As of the week ending August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 76 to 70, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 401,000 tons to 2.9169 million tons, a 12.08% decline. Spot prices in some regions were adjusted slightly. The raw - sugar market is still in a volatile state with insufficient driving forces [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45 yuan, up 5 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1,115 yuan, down 98 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,100 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,235 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 42 yuan, up 1 yuan; the main - contract basis was 307 yuan, down 18 yuan. The spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged at 5,970 yuan per ton and 5,995 yuan per ton respectively [3]. Market Information - On August 25, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 94 to 7,104, with 63 valid forecasts. Cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data changed slightly [4]. - On August 25, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 170 to 15,385, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Charts show the historical data of cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of these two commodities [7][15]