Workflow
宏观层面扰动
icon
Search documents
光大期货软商品日报-20250826
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:04
软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报(2025 年 8 月 26 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一,ICE 美棉下跌 0.93%,报收 67.38 美分/磅,CF601 环比上涨 0.75%,报收 14120 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨,主力合约持仓环比增加 19701 手至 50.46 万手,新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15100 | | | | 元/吨,较前一日下降 5 元/吨,中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15235 元/吨,较前 | | | | 一日下降 8 元/吨。国际市场方面,近期宏观层面扰动增加,杰克逊霍尔年会后, | | | 棉花 | 鲍威尔发言转鸽,但昨日美元指数再度走强,美棉价格承压下行,近期更多关注 | | | | 宏观层面扰动。国内市场方面,2025 年棉花滑准税配额发布,20 万吨,部分缓解 | | | | 库存短缺担忧。展望未来,宏观情绪整体偏暖,新棉上市后,郑棉会同时面临供 | | | | 应增加的冲击以及潜在的"抢收"风险,届时需重点关注籽棉收购价格,短期郑 | | | | 棉在宏观情绪推动下以偏强震荡对待, ...
棉花、白糖:美棉涨0.5%,巴西糖产量预计降9.8%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 03:47
Group 1 - ICE cotton prices increased by 0.5% to 67.72 cents per pound, while CF509 rose by 0.51% to 13,830 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 3,515 contracts to 546,800 contracts [1] - The price of Xinjiang cotton at the factory was 15,163 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day, and the China cotton price index for grade 3128B was 15,184 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan [1] - The U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, with good growth conditions, and production may be adjusted upward on a month-over-month basis while remaining flat year-over-year, with the USDA report due this Saturday [1] Group 2 - Domestic cotton prices showed a slight increase, with limited driving forces due to low imports, low inventory, and weather disturbances supporting cotton prices, while expectations for new cotton production are strong during the off-season with limited demand [1] - The short-term outlook for Zheng cotton is weak, expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with the September contract likely to perform better than the January contract, while macroeconomic and weather disturbances are to be monitored [1] - In Brazil, sugarcane crushing in the second half of June is estimated at 44.24 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 9.7%, with sugar production at 2.95 million tons, down 9.8%, and ethanol production at 2.01 billion liters, down 13.1% [1] Group 3 - The current spot prices for white sugar in various regions include 6,040 yuan per ton in Nanning, up 20 yuan from the previous day, and 6,075 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, down 5 yuan [1] - As of July 9, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,932, a decrease of 39 from the previous day, with effective forecasts at 266 [1] - The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day, while the comprehensive inventory of yarn increased by 0.1 to 29.8; the comprehensive load of short fiber cloth decreased by 0.1 to 48.6, with inventory remaining stable at 33.5 [1]
光大期货软商品日报-20250606
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 06:17
Group 1: Research Views - The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.21% on Thursday, closing at 67.91 cents per pound, and CF509 closed flat, at 13,245 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 4,771 lots to 530,200 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,431 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,543 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan per ton from the previous day. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton futures price is expected to move up slightly, but the space depends on subsequent implementation [1]. - As of the end of May, the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the previous year. The domestic sugar futures price is expected to maintain a weak pattern considering future imported sugar arrival pressure [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 contract spread was - 225, down 5; the main contract basis was 1,298, up 19; the Xinjiang spot price was 14,431, unchanged; and the national spot price was 14,543, down 1 [2]. - For sugar, the 7 - 9 contract spread was 118, down 7; the main contract basis was 415, up 18; the Nanning spot price was 6,090, unchanged; and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,145, unchanged [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On June 5, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,939, a decrease of 38 from the previous trading day, with 369 valid forecasts [3]. - On June 5, the domestic cotton arrival prices were 14,431 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,559 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,559 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,770 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On June 5, the yarn comprehensive load was 54.8, down 0.3 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.1, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.4, up 0.1 [3]. - On June 5, the sugar spot prices were 6,090 yuan per ton in Nanning and 6,145 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, both unchanged from the previous day [3]. - On June 5, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 29,893, a decrease of 407 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry [19]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21].