软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 0.93%，报收 67.38 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.75%，报收 14120 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 19701 手至 50.46 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15100 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 5 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15235 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 8 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面扰动增加，杰克逊霍尔年会后， | | | 棉花 | 鲍威尔发言转鸽，但昨日美元指数再度走强，美棉价格承压下行，近期更多关注 | | | | 宏观层面扰动。国内市场方面，2025 年棉花滑准税配额发布，20 万吨，部分缓解 | | | | 库存短缺担忧。展望未来，宏观情绪整体偏暖，新棉上市后，郑棉会同时面临供 | | | | 应增加的冲击以及潜在的"抢收"风险，届时需重点关注籽棉收购价格，短期郑 | | | | 棉在宏观情绪推动下以偏强震荡对待， ...

Group 1 - ICE cotton prices increased by 0.5% to 67.72 cents per pound, while CF509 rose by 0.51% to 13,830 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 3,515 contracts to 546,800 contracts [1] - The price of Xinjiang cotton at the factory was 15,163 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day, and the China cotton price index for grade 3128B was 15,184 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan [1] - The U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, with good growth conditions, and production may be adjusted upward on a month-over-month basis while remaining flat year-over-year, with the USDA report due this Saturday [1] Group 2 - Domestic cotton prices showed a slight increase, with limited driving forces due to low imports, low inventory, and weather disturbances supporting cotton prices, while expectations for new cotton production are strong during the off-season with limited demand [1] - The short-term outlook for Zheng cotton is weak, expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with the September contract likely to perform better than the January contract, while macroeconomic and weather disturbances are to be monitored [1] - In Brazil, sugarcane crushing in the second half of June is estimated at 44.24 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 9.7%, with sugar production at 2.95 million tons, down 9.8%, and ethanol production at 2.01 billion liters, down 13.1% [1] Group 3 - The current spot prices for white sugar in various regions include 6,040 yuan per ton in Nanning, up 20 yuan from the previous day, and 6,075 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, down 5 yuan [1] - As of July 9, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,932, a decrease of 39 from the previous day, with effective forecasts at 266 [1] - The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day, while the comprehensive inventory of yarn increased by 0.1 to 29.8; the comprehensive load of short fiber cloth decreased by 0.1 to 48.6, with inventory remaining stable at 33.5 [1]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.21%，报收 67.91 美分/磅，CF509 环比收平，报收 13245 元 | 震荡反 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 4771 手至 53.02 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14431 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14543 元/吨，较前一日下降 | | | | 1 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍是主要影响因素，美元指数重心周环比 | | | | 下移，市场对美国经济的担忧在逐渐升温，但昨日中美元首通话提振市场情绪，美 | | | | 棉价格盘中拉升。基本面驱动有限，后续持续关注宏观层面扰动。国内市场方面， | 弹 | | | 昨夜郑棉期价重心上移，中美元首通话，提振市场情绪。基本面来看，驱动仍相对 | | | | 有限。展望未来，在宏观层面传来利好情况下，预计短期郑棉期价重心仍将小幅上 | | | | 移，但空间如何需关注后续具体落实事宜。 | | | ...