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棉花:关注外部市场影响20260325
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 02:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report mainly tracks the fundamentals of cotton, including the prices, trading volumes, and positions of cotton futures and the prices of cotton and cotton yarn in the spot market. It also mentions the domestic cotton spot situation, the situation of domestic cotton textile enterprises, and the situation of US cotton. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of CF2605 was 15,215 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.43% and a night - session closing price of 15,210 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.03%. The closing price of CY2605 was 21,555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09% and a night - session closing price of 21,555 yuan/ton with no change. The price of ICE US cotton 5 was 67.57 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.51% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2605 was 400,158 lots, a decrease of 178,892 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 1,068,997 lots, an increase of 10,907 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 9,840 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 13,966 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,354, a decrease of 30, and the effective forecast was 426, an increase of 77. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 241, a decrease of 10, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 184 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The price in Shandong was 16,744 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 yuan/ton or 0.76%. The price in Hebei was 16,793 yuan/ton, an increase of 103 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The 3128B index was 16,732 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton or 0.84%. The Cotlook:A index was 77.85 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.40 cents/pound or 0.51%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.23%. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton or 0.29% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF5 - 9 price spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading was generally sluggish, and spot basis was generally stable. The mainstream quotation range of 2025/26 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was CF05 + 1150~1400. The lower sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was CF05 + 1300~1400 [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The quotation of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable, but the sales pace slowed down compared with the early stage of "Golden March". New orders and customer inquiries of some inland spinning enterprises decreased significantly, and some spinning enterprises had no production plan for combed high - count yarn. Some traders had high inventory of regular yarn and sold at low prices [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, rebounding after reaching the technical support level [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, which is rated as neutral, with the value range of [- 2,2] and the classification of weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6].