1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report mainly tracks the fundamentals of cotton, including the prices, trading volumes, and positions of cotton futures and the prices of cotton and cotton yarn in the spot market. It also mentions the domestic cotton spot situation, the situation of domestic cotton textile enterprises, and the situation of US cotton. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of CF2605 was 15,215 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.43% and a night - session closing price of 15,210 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.03%. The closing price of CY2605 was 21,555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09% and a night - session closing price of 21,555 yuan/ton with no change. The price of ICE US cotton 5 was 67.57 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.51% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2605 was 400,158 lots, a decrease of 178,892 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 1,068,997 lots, an increase of 10,907 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 9,840 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 13,966 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,354, a decrease of 30, and the effective forecast was 426, an increase of 77. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 241, a decrease of 10, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 184 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The price in Shandong was 16,744 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 yuan/ton or 0.76%. The price in Hebei was 16,793 yuan/ton, an increase of 103 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The 3128B index was 16,732 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton or 0.84%. The Cotlook:A index was 77.85 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.40 cents/pound or 0.51%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.23%. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton or 0.29% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF5 - 9 price spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading was generally sluggish, and spot basis was generally stable. The mainstream quotation range of 2025/26 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was CF05 + 1150~1400. The lower sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was CF05 + 1300~1400 [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The quotation of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable, but the sales pace slowed down compared with the early stage of "Golden March". New orders and customer inquiries of some inland spinning enterprises decreased significantly, and some spinning enterprises had no production plan for combed high - count yarn. Some traders had high inventory of regular yarn and sold at low prices [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, rebounding after reaching the technical support level [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, which is rated as neutral, with the value range of [- 2,2] and the classification of weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. ICE cotton futures lack fundamental drivers and have light trading. The domestic cotton spot market has mixed trading, while the cotton - textile market shows some improvement [1][3][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,515 yuan/ton with a 1.27% daily increase and 15,490 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.16% change. CY2605 closed at 21,580 yuan/ton with a 1.41% daily increase and 21,660 yuan/ton at night with a 0.37% change. ICE cotton 5 closed at 65.24 cents/pound with a - 0.03% change. Trading volume and positions of CF2605 increased, while CY2605's trading volume decreased and positions increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zheng cotton's warehouse receipts increased by 202 to 12,152, and effective forecasts decreased by 180 to 610. Cotton yarn's warehouse receipts increased by 71 to 114, and effective forecasts decreased by 305 to 277 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 230 yuan/ton to 16,764 yuan/ton, Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,683 yuan/ton. Some regions' spot prices decreased slightly, such as Shandong and Hebei. The 3128B index decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 16,668 yuan/ton. The Cotlook:A index increased by 0.45 cents/pound to 75.20 cents/pound. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained stable [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread's change was - 15, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 increased by 40 to 1,250 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was mostly weak. Spot fixed - price quotes were few, and prices were gradually higher than imported cotton of the same quality. Basis quotes were generally stable. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang had different price quotes and trading situations [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: Pure - cotton yarn prices were stable with a slight increase. Market sentiment improved. Supported by raw material costs, spinning mills had a firm pricing attitude. Except for domestic low - count yarns, downstream weaving transactions increased compared to before, and the overall trading atmosphere improved [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell, closing down 0.03%. It lacked fundamental drivers and had light trading [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive view on the cotton market [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The ICE cotton futures rebounded due to the falling dollar but lacked substantial fundamental support and eventually fell back. The market is awaiting the US cotton weekly export sales data on Thursday to see if it can support the ICE cotton fundamentals [2] - The trend strength of cotton is 1, indicating a neutral view [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,205 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.33% and a night - session closing price of 15,250 yuan/ton with a 0.30% increase. CY2605 closed at 21,055 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decline and a night - session closing price of 21,105 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase. ICE US cotton 5 was at 64.17 cents/pound with a 0.02% increase. The trading volume of CF2605 was 514,640 hands, a decrease of 33,177 hands from the previous day, and the position was 1,159,387 hands, a decrease of 5,259 hands. The trading volume of CY2605 was 12,460 hands, a decrease of 1,999 hands, and the position was 14,010 hands, an increase of 1,045 hands [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 11,379, an increase of 8, and the effective forecast was 1,132, an increase of 36. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 285, a decrease of 225 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,394 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day (-0.30%); South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,327 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan (-0.31%); Shandong was 16,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan (-0.20%); Hebei was 16,583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan (-0.02%); the 3128B index was 16,571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan (-0.12%); the Cotlook:A index was 74.95 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.95 cents (-1.25%); the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,869 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan (0.27%) [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was mixed, and the spot basis was stable. The better - traded basis for 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was CF05 + 1250 - 1350, self - pick up in Xinjiang. The lower - quoted basis for 2025/26 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was CF05 + 1150 - 1250, and the higher - quoted basis was mostly CF05 + 1250 and above, self - pick up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable with partial fine - tuning. Some spinning mills received new orders recently, and the market trading atmosphere was slowly warming up. The quotations were divided: a few spinning mills with large previous price increases lowered their quotations, and a few spinning mills with small previous price increases and good recent sales slightly raised their quotations. Currently, spinning mills are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the operating rate of inland spinning mills continues to rise slightly [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly due to the falling dollar, reaching 64.88 cents/pound at one point, but finally fell back to 64.17 cents/pound due to the lack of substantial fundamental drivers. The market is waiting for the US cotton weekly export sales data on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton provide some support, and cotton prices are showing a relatively strong performance. The cotton futures prices in February were mainly oscillating upwards. There are rumors of a potential production cut in the new season, which supports cotton prices. Although the downstream market has not fully resumed work, there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" period, and downstream sectors may replenish inventory as they gradually resume operations, providing support to the market [5][6]. - The overall trend of cotton prices still has upward potential. It is recommended to build long positions on dips, and it is not advisable to chase the upward trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In February, cotton futures prices were mainly oscillating upwards. The supply side changed little, and there were rumors of a production cut in the new season, which supported cotton prices. The downstream market had not fully resumed work, and although there were expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" period, inventory replenishment was still cautious. US cotton rebounded in February, with expected production cuts according to the USDA annual meeting, and recent contract signings improved. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend [5][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the supply side for this season is basically determined, but there are rumors of a production cut in the new season. In 2026, the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by 2660000 mu to 36210000 mu, a reduction of 7%, which supports the market. The current commercial inventory is lower than that of the previous year, which is bullish for cotton prices. The downstream market has not fully started, but yarn prices have increased recently. Considering the upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period, downstream sectors may replenish inventory as they gradually resume operations, providing support to the market [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The fundamentals of cotton are still strong, and there is still upward potential in the long - term trend. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and not to chase the upward trend. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, in February, cotton futures prices were mainly oscillating upwards. The supply side changed little, and there were rumors of a production cut in the new season, which supported cotton prices. The downstream market had not fully resumed work, and although there were expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" period, inventory replenishment was still cautious. US cotton rebounded in February, with expected production cuts according to the USDA annual meeting, and recent contract signings improved. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 25/26 season, the global cotton production changed little, demand decreased, and the ending inventory increased. In the 26/27 season, the global cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.9 million bales to 116 million bales, slightly higher than the five - year average. The production in China, Brazil, the US, the Francophone Africa, and Greece is expected to decline, while that in Australia, Turkey, Mexico, Central Asia, and Egypt is expected to increase slightly, and India and Pakistan are expected to remain unchanged. According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast, in February, the 25/26 season's cotton production increased slightly compared to the previous month, with a decrease of 90000 tons to 26.09 million tons (China's production increased by 110000 tons), total demand decreased by 44000 tons to 25.85 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 136000 tons to 16.35 million tons [13]. 3.2.3 United States - The US cotton production in the 25/26 season changed little, and there is a slight reduction in the new season. The new - cotton contract - signing progress is poor and at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. As of February 12, the cumulative US cotton contract - signing volume was 1.9279 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 0.8941 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.13%. Currently, China's cumulative contract - signing volume of US cotton is 91500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.35%, and the cumulative shipment volume is 117000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.87%. The US Department of Agriculture will conduct a planting intention survey in early March 2026 and release the results on March 31. The 2026 US cotton planting area is expected to reach 9.4 million acres (a year - on - year increase of 1.3%), the harvested area is about 7.6 million acres, a 2% decrease from 2025. The national cotton abandonment rate is expected to reach 19%. The spring and summer weather conditions will have a significant impact on cotton planting and the total US cotton production [16][17]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - India: The cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 23.5 million bales, the same as in the 2025/26 season. Due to continuous pest problems, low prices, and insufficient precipitation, farmers have converted low - yield plots to competitive crops in the past two years. The cotton - planting area is expected to increase by 3% to 11.5 million hectares. The cotton yield per unit area in India has been stable in the past 8 years, and the 2026/27 season's yield per unit area is expected to be 445 kg per hectare, a 3% decrease from the 2025/26 season but slightly higher than the five - year average. As of January 31, 2026, compared with the previous year, the beginning inventory increased by 360000 tons, production increased by 80000 tons, imports increased by 150000 tons, domestic demand decreased by 150000 tons, exports decreased by 50000 tons, and the ending inventory increased by 800000 tons. As of January 31, 2025, the cumulative market volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season was 3.75 million tons, with a market progress of 70%, a year - on - year increase of 17% [19][21]. - Brazil: As of February 21, the 2025/26 season's cotton planting in Brazil was 99.9% complete, a month - on - month increase of 3.4 percentage points, the same as the previous year and basically the same as the average of the past three years [24]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply side: As of mid - February, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 285000 tons from half a month ago, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years and similar to the previous year. The commercial inventory in Xinjiang was 4.12 million tons, the inventory in the inland areas was 940000 tons, and the bonded - area inventory was 430000 tons. As of February 12, the cumulative sales volume of lint cotton was 4.991 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.881 million tons and an increase of 2.412 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. In December 2025, the imported cotton volume was 177300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41500 tons and a month - on - month increase of 58600 tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 1.0659 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.2%. From the 2025/26 season to date, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 480100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [29]. - Price difference between domestic and foreign cotton: In February, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton widened, and it is currently around 3000 yuan per ton. Currently, imported cotton has a certain advantage, but the Zhengzhou cotton price has been relatively strong recently, and it is expected that the price difference will remain at the current level in the short term [30]. - Demand side: After the Spring Festival, the downstream market gradually resumed work. The cotton price increased significantly at the beginning of the year, and the yarn price also increased, but the downstream sectors were relatively cautious. There are expectations for orders during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, which provides some support to the market. As of mid - February, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 1.0292 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28200 tons; the yarn inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 21.32 days, and the grey - fabric inventory was 32.88 days. In December, domestic demand was fair, at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in previous years, while external demand was average. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles in December were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The export value of textiles and clothing was 25.992 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing was 293.767 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.44% [31][32]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to remain around 25 - 26 million tons, at a relatively neutral level compared to previous years. In the new season, the cotton production in India in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 23.5 million bales, the same as in the 2025/26 season. The recent contract signings have improved but are still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and it is expected that the short - term boost to US cotton will be relatively limited. It is expected that US cotton will mostly maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend. - In China, on the supply side, the cotton production in the 25/26 season is basically determined, and the supply is expected to remain sufficient in the short term. However, the cotton sales progress this year is relatively fast, and the imported cotton volume in the past year has been relatively small. In June, July, and August, the market may still trade on factors such as low inventory. There are rumors that the cotton - planting area in the new season will decrease. If there is no extreme climate, the yield per unit area will probably remain stable, and it is expected that the cotton production in the 26/27 season will probably decrease. On the demand side, the downstream market has not fully started, and although the yarn price has increased recently, the overall attitude is relatively cautious. Considering the upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period, the downstream sectors may replenish inventory as they gradually resume operations, providing support to the market [57].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and China's central economic meeting have boosted market confidence, while domestic cotton prices are rising due to resilient consumption, contrasting with weak international demand [1][4]. Price Review - Domestic cotton prices are firm, with Zhengzhou cotton futures averaging 13,794 CNY/ton, up 31 CNY/ton (0.2%) from the previous week, and the national cotton price B index averaging 14,960 CNY/ton, up 41 CNY/ton (0.3%) [2]. - Internationally, the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut has improved market sentiment, but U.S. cotton production adjustments have kept prices weak, with New York cotton futures averaging 63.89 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents/pound (0.7%) [2]. - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has widened to 2,401 CNY/ton, an increase of 129 CNY/ton from the previous week [2]. Textile Market - Domestic and international yarn prices have seen slight increases, with domestic C32S yarn averaging 20,785 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY/ton, 0.1%) and imported C32S yarn averaging 21,033 CNY/ton (up 41 CNY/ton, 0.2%) [3]. - Polyester staple fiber prices have decreased by 56 CNY/ton to 6,270 CNY/ton [3]. Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut and rising expectations for Japanese interest rate hikes are influencing market dynamics, while Mexico's new tariffs on textiles pose additional challenges for Chinese exports [4]. - China's central economic meeting emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand, aiming to boost consumption through various measures [4]. - Global cotton supply dynamics are shifting, with increased exports from the Southern Hemisphere and a decline in planting area expected in Brazil and Australia [5]. - Domestic cotton sales are progressing rapidly, with a processing rate of 84.0% and a sales rate of 41.6%, both showing year-on-year increases [6]. - Despite a slight recovery in textile exports, overall figures remain down, with November textile exports at $23.87 billion, a 5.1% year-on-year decline [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse its current supply - excess and inventory - accumulation situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20] Summary by Directory Soybean and Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated, Brazilian soybean premiums rose, and the cost of imported soybeans remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with an offer of 2,980 yuan/ton in East China. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from last week. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year, and soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons. [2] - Brazilian soybean planting areas had slightly less rainfall in November than usual, but more rainfall is forecasted for December, and planting is expected to proceed smoothly. The November USDA report estimated that the global soybean production and consumption in the 25/26 season are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed from double - growth to supply - decrease and demand - increase. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%. [2] Strategy Viewpoints - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, and is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. [6] - MYSTEEL statistics showed that the total domestic oil inventory remained flat last week. Palm oil inventory was at a normal level year - on - year and continued to accumulate. The de - stocking trend of soybean oil rebounded due to increased crushing volume, and rapeseed oil continued to de - stock due to a shortage of Canadian rapeseed imports. The total oil inventory is expected to decrease in the future. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic oil prices fell sharply. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil in November was weak, and high - frequency data still showed month - on - month production increase. Domestic spot basis was stable. [6] Strategy Viewpoints - The unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses its market performance. Palm oil may reverse its current situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound. The closing price of the January contract was 5,387 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 146,000 tons, a decrease of 264,000 tons. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. Indian sugar production has increased significantly compared to the same period last year. [10] Strategy Viewpoints - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. The closing price of the January contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The spot price index rose, and the basis was 1,187 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.05 yuan to 2.93 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream digestion was average, and the market was in a stalemate. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with minor fluctuations. [16] Strategy Viewpoints - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.15 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 11.56 yuan/kg. Market demand increased slightly, while pig slaughter volume continued to increase, resulting in oversupply. Pig prices may continue to decline today. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The futures price of cotton is fluctuating and showing a slightly stronger trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,030 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 14,155 yuan/ton in the night session with 0.89% increase; CY2511 closed at 20,060 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 20,180 yuan/ton in the night session; ICE US cotton 12 rose 0.79% to 68 cents/pound. For trading volume and open interest, CF2601 had 214,219 contracts traded with an increase of 16,126 from the previous day and an open interest of 727,579 contracts with a decrease of 6,325; CY2511 had 5,396 contracts traded with a decrease of 1,999 and an open interest of 21,958 contracts with an increase of 1,045 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton had 7,198 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 137 and 63 valid forecasts with a decrease of 125; cotton yarn had 64 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 5 and 0 valid forecasts with an increase of 69 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,272 yuan/ton with no change; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,963 yuan/ton with no change; the price in Shandong was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 35 (0.23%); in Hebei, it was 15,249 yuan/ton with an increase of 45 (0.30%); the 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 33 (0.22%); the international cotton index M was 74.95 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.24%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,720 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 (0.10%), and its arrival price was 22,053 yuan/ton with an increase of 18 (0.08%) [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton with a decrease of 10; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,240 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading had partial good transactions. Southern Xinjiang cotton was mostly traded inland. The sales basis of inland warehouse cotton spot was stable, and the shipment was average. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF09 + 1400 - 1550, inland self - pick; the mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang local machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was CF01+1300 and above, Xinjiang self - pick [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was okay. Spinning mills' inventory continued to decline. Inland spinning mills had a cash - flow loss of about 500 yuan/ton, and the current production - restriction situation had no improvement. The pure - cotton grey fabric market was generally stable and weak, with limited market improvement. The downstream inquiry and transaction were average, and the inventory pressure of weaving factories slowly decreased [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly, driven by the US interest - rate cut expectation [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: July 14, 2025 [1] - Report title: Cotton: No new fundamental negatives, pay attention to external market impacts [1] - Analyst: Fu Bo, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0016727 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509: Yesterday's closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.14%, overnight closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton with an overnight increase of 0.14%. Yesterday's trading volume was 266,512 lots, a decrease of 20,816 lots from the previous day, and the position was 864,081 lots, an increase of 6,270 lots [2]. - CY2509: Yesterday's closing price was 20,095 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.32%, overnight closing price was 20,105 yuan/ton with an overnight increase of 0.05%. Yesterday's trading volume was 6,860 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 22,605 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2]. - ICE Cotton No.12: Yesterday's closing price was 67.42 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.50% [2]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou Cotton: Yesterday's warehouse receipt volume was 9,850 sheets, a decrease of 32 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 234 sheets, a decrease of 10 sheets [2]. - Cotton Yarn: Yesterday's warehouse receipt volume was 91 sheets, an increase of 40 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 7 sheets, an increase of 4 sheets [2]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 Machine - Picked Cotton: Price was 15,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day [2]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 Machine - Picked Cotton: Price was 14,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day [2]. - Shandong Spot: Price was 15,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day [2]. - Hebei Spot: Price was 15,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 123 yuan or 0.81% from the previous day [2]. - 3128B Index: Price was 15,266 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.46% from the previous day [2]. - International Cotton Index M: Price was 75.28 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous day [2]. - Pure - cotton Combed Yarn 32S: Price was 20,490 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day [2]. - Pure - cotton Combed Yarn 32S Arrival Price: Price was 22,014 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan or - 0.11% from the previous day [2]. - **Spread Data**: - CF9 - 1 Spread: The spread was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [2]. - Northern Xinjiang 3128 Machine - Picked Cotton - CF509 Spread: The spread was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Group 3: Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading changed little, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases, and the overall basis was stable. Most quotes for 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Machine - Picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 were at CF09 + 1050 - 1400, and the number of quotes below 1000 decreased. The freight for cotton leaving Xinjiang by truck increased slightly [3]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market remained dull, and the actual demand did not improve. Attention was paid to whether the continuous price increase would drive downstream replenishment. The all - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with most weaving factories in many regions reporting small and scattered orders and difficulty in getting large orders. Recently, due to the rising raw material prices, the grey fabric quotes increased, but the actual transactions were still negotiated according to orders [3]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly. The USDA monthly supply - demand report was slightly bearish. The USDA raised the 2025/26 US cotton production (due to the increase in planting area) and ending stocks, and also raised the 2025/26 global cotton production (mainly because of the increase in China and the US production), resulting in higher 2025/26 global cotton ending stocks than the data in the June supply - demand report [3]. Group 4: Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Core Viewpoint - Zheng cotton is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with a focus on macroeconomic factors and the upcoming U.S. cotton planting report [1] Market Overview - The latest price index for 328-grade cotton is 14,891 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] - The planting area for cotton is stable with an expected increase in new cotton production [1] - The cotton yarn market remains sluggish, with textile enterprises reducing prices to sell, and downstream orders showing no improvement [1] Production and Inventory - In May, cotton yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year to 1.951 million tons, while fabric production decreased by 3.3% to 2.67 billion meters [1] - Cumulative yarn production from January to May reached 9.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while cumulative fabric production was 12.63 billion meters, a slight increase of 0.2% [1] - Chemical fiber production in May rose by 5.2% year-on-year to 7.349 million tons [1] International Market Dynamics - The U.S. cotton planting progress is at 85%, down from 89% year-on-year, with a good quality rate of 48%, compared to 54% last year [1] - The USDA's June supply and demand report adjusted U.S. cotton exports for the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons, with ending stocks reduced to 960,000 tons [1] - The CFTC fund's net positions are low, indicating strong support for ICE cotton prices [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, contributing to a significant drop in overnight ICE cotton prices [1] - Short-term fundamentals are limited, leading to narrow fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with a need to monitor macroeconomic changes [1]