Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and China's central economic meeting have boosted market confidence, while domestic cotton prices are rising due to resilient consumption, contrasting with weak international demand [1][4]. Price Review - Domestic cotton prices are firm, with Zhengzhou cotton futures averaging 13,794 CNY/ton, up 31 CNY/ton (0.2%) from the previous week, and the national cotton price B index averaging 14,960 CNY/ton, up 41 CNY/ton (0.3%) [2]. - Internationally, the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut has improved market sentiment, but U.S. cotton production adjustments have kept prices weak, with New York cotton futures averaging 63.89 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents/pound (0.7%) [2]. - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has widened to 2,401 CNY/ton, an increase of 129 CNY/ton from the previous week [2]. Textile Market - Domestic and international yarn prices have seen slight increases, with domestic C32S yarn averaging 20,785 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY/ton, 0.1%) and imported C32S yarn averaging 21,033 CNY/ton (up 41 CNY/ton, 0.2%) [3]. - Polyester staple fiber prices have decreased by 56 CNY/ton to 6,270 CNY/ton [3]. Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut and rising expectations for Japanese interest rate hikes are influencing market dynamics, while Mexico's new tariffs on textiles pose additional challenges for Chinese exports [4]. - China's central economic meeting emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand, aiming to boost consumption through various measures [4]. - Global cotton supply dynamics are shifting, with increased exports from the Southern Hemisphere and a decline in planting area expected in Brazil and Australia [5]. - Domestic cotton sales are progressing rapidly, with a processing rate of 84.0% and a sales rate of 41.6%, both showing year-on-year increases [6]. - Despite a slight recovery in textile exports, overall figures remain down, with November textile exports at $23.87 billion, a 5.1% year-on-year decline [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse its current supply - excess and inventory - accumulation situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20] Summary by Directory Soybean and Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated, Brazilian soybean premiums rose, and the cost of imported soybeans remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with an offer of 2,980 yuan/ton in East China. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from last week. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year, and soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons. [2] - Brazilian soybean planting areas had slightly less rainfall in November than usual, but more rainfall is forecasted for December, and planting is expected to proceed smoothly. The November USDA report estimated that the global soybean production and consumption in the 25/26 season are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed from double - growth to supply - decrease and demand - increase. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%. [2] Strategy Viewpoints - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, and is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. [6] - MYSTEEL statistics showed that the total domestic oil inventory remained flat last week. Palm oil inventory was at a normal level year - on - year and continued to accumulate. The de - stocking trend of soybean oil rebounded due to increased crushing volume, and rapeseed oil continued to de - stock due to a shortage of Canadian rapeseed imports. The total oil inventory is expected to decrease in the future. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic oil prices fell sharply. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil in November was weak, and high - frequency data still showed month - on - month production increase. Domestic spot basis was stable. [6] Strategy Viewpoints - The unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses its market performance. Palm oil may reverse its current situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound. The closing price of the January contract was 5,387 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 146,000 tons, a decrease of 264,000 tons. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. Indian sugar production has increased significantly compared to the same period last year. [10] Strategy Viewpoints - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. The closing price of the January contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The spot price index rose, and the basis was 1,187 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.05 yuan to 2.93 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream digestion was average, and the market was in a stalemate. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with minor fluctuations. [16] Strategy Viewpoints - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.15 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 11.56 yuan/kg. Market demand increased slightly, while pig slaughter volume continued to increase, resulting in oversupply. Pig prices may continue to decline today. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The futures price of cotton is fluctuating and showing a slightly stronger trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,030 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 14,155 yuan/ton in the night session with 0.89% increase; CY2511 closed at 20,060 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 20,180 yuan/ton in the night session; ICE US cotton 12 rose 0.79% to 68 cents/pound. For trading volume and open interest, CF2601 had 214,219 contracts traded with an increase of 16,126 from the previous day and an open interest of 727,579 contracts with a decrease of 6,325; CY2511 had 5,396 contracts traded with a decrease of 1,999 and an open interest of 21,958 contracts with an increase of 1,045 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton had 7,198 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 137 and 63 valid forecasts with a decrease of 125; cotton yarn had 64 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 5 and 0 valid forecasts with an increase of 69 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,272 yuan/ton with no change; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,963 yuan/ton with no change; the price in Shandong was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 35 (0.23%); in Hebei, it was 15,249 yuan/ton with an increase of 45 (0.30%); the 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 33 (0.22%); the international cotton index M was 74.95 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.24%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,720 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 (0.10%), and its arrival price was 22,053 yuan/ton with an increase of 18 (0.08%) [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton with a decrease of 10; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,240 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading had partial good transactions. Southern Xinjiang cotton was mostly traded inland. The sales basis of inland warehouse cotton spot was stable, and the shipment was average. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF09 + 1400 - 1550, inland self - pick; the mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang local machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was CF01+1300 and above, Xinjiang self - pick [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was okay. Spinning mills' inventory continued to decline. Inland spinning mills had a cash - flow loss of about 500 yuan/ton, and the current production - restriction situation had no improvement. The pure - cotton grey fabric market was generally stable and weak, with limited market improvement. The downstream inquiry and transaction were average, and the inventory pressure of weaving factories slowly decreased [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly, driven by the US interest - rate cut expectation [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: July 14, 2025 [1] - Report title: Cotton: No new fundamental negatives, pay attention to external market impacts [1] - Analyst: Fu Bo, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0016727 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509: Yesterday's closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.14%, overnight closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton with an overnight increase of 0.14%. Yesterday's trading volume was 266,512 lots, a decrease of 20,816 lots from the previous day, and the position was 864,081 lots, an increase of 6,270 lots [2]. - CY2509: Yesterday's closing price was 20,095 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.32%, overnight closing price was 20,105 yuan/ton with an overnight increase of 0.05%. Yesterday's trading volume was 6,860 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 22,605 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2]. - ICE Cotton No.12: Yesterday's closing price was 67.42 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.50% [2]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou Cotton: Yesterday's warehouse receipt volume was 9,850 sheets, a decrease of 32 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 234 sheets, a decrease of 10 sheets [2]. - Cotton Yarn: Yesterday's warehouse receipt volume was 91 sheets, an increase of 40 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 7 sheets, an increase of 4 sheets [2]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 Machine - Picked Cotton: Price was 15,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day [2]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 Machine - Picked Cotton: Price was 14,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day [2]. - Shandong Spot: Price was 15,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day [2]. - Hebei Spot: Price was 15,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 123 yuan or 0.81% from the previous day [2]. - 3128B Index: Price was 15,266 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.46% from the previous day [2]. - International Cotton Index M: Price was 75.28 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous day [2]. - Pure - cotton Combed Yarn 32S: Price was 20,490 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day [2]. - Pure - cotton Combed Yarn 32S Arrival Price: Price was 22,014 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan or - 0.11% from the previous day [2]. - **Spread Data**: - CF9 - 1 Spread: The spread was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [2]. - Northern Xinjiang 3128 Machine - Picked Cotton - CF509 Spread: The spread was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Group 3: Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading changed little, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases, and the overall basis was stable. Most quotes for 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Machine - Picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 were at CF09 + 1050 - 1400, and the number of quotes below 1000 decreased. The freight for cotton leaving Xinjiang by truck increased slightly [3]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market remained dull, and the actual demand did not improve. Attention was paid to whether the continuous price increase would drive downstream replenishment. The all - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with most weaving factories in many regions reporting small and scattered orders and difficulty in getting large orders. Recently, due to the rising raw material prices, the grey fabric quotes increased, but the actual transactions were still negotiated according to orders [3]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly. The USDA monthly supply - demand report was slightly bearish. The USDA raised the 2025/26 US cotton production (due to the increase in planting area) and ending stocks, and also raised the 2025/26 global cotton production (mainly because of the increase in China and the US production), resulting in higher 2025/26 global cotton ending stocks than the data in the June supply - demand report [3]. Group 4: Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Core Viewpoint - Zheng cotton is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with a focus on macroeconomic factors and the upcoming U.S. cotton planting report [1] Market Overview - The latest price index for 328-grade cotton is 14,891 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] - The planting area for cotton is stable with an expected increase in new cotton production [1] - The cotton yarn market remains sluggish, with textile enterprises reducing prices to sell, and downstream orders showing no improvement [1] Production and Inventory - In May, cotton yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year to 1.951 million tons, while fabric production decreased by 3.3% to 2.67 billion meters [1] - Cumulative yarn production from January to May reached 9.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while cumulative fabric production was 12.63 billion meters, a slight increase of 0.2% [1] - Chemical fiber production in May rose by 5.2% year-on-year to 7.349 million tons [1] International Market Dynamics - The U.S. cotton planting progress is at 85%, down from 89% year-on-year, with a good quality rate of 48%, compared to 54% last year [1] - The USDA's June supply and demand report adjusted U.S. cotton exports for the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons, with ending stocks reduced to 960,000 tons [1] - The CFTC fund's net positions are low, indicating strong support for ICE cotton prices [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, contributing to a significant drop in overnight ICE cotton prices [1] - Short-term fundamentals are limited, leading to narrow fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with a need to monitor macroeconomic changes [1]