棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 14,030 | 0.00% | 14155 | 0.89% 0.60% | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 20,060 | 0.00% | 20180 | | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 68 | 0.79% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 214,219 | 16,126 | 727,579 | -6,325 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 5,396 | -1,999 | 21,958 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 7,198 | -137 | 63 | -125 | | | 棉纱 | 张 | 64 | -5 | 0 | 69 | | | | | 价 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 14 日 棉花：基本面暂无新利空，注意外部市场影响 | 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 | | --- | | fubo2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 国内棉花现货概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，棉花现货交投变化不大，纺企刚需采购为主，整体基差持 稳。2024/25 南疆机采 3129/29-30B 杂 3.5 内多数报价在 CF09+1050-1400，1000 以下报盘数量减少， 疆内自提。棉花出疆汽运费稳中略涨；当前北疆奎屯至山东菏泽汽运费约在 420 元/吨上下，南疆阿克苏 至山东菏泽汽运费约在 430 元/吨左右（含税非裸车价）。 国内棉纺织企业概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，纯棉纱市场交投依然平淡，成交变化不大。实际需求并 未改善，关注价格持续上涨是否会带动下游补库。全棉坯布市场维持清淡，成交变化不大。多地区多数织 厂反映维持小散订单，大单难寻。近期原料价格上涨，坯布报价上浮，实际成交仍按单协商。 美棉概况：上周五 ICE 棉花期货小幅下跌，美国农业部月度供需报告小幅利空。一方面美国农业部上 调 2025/26 年度美棉产量（因种植面积上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zheng cotton is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with a focus on macroeconomic factors and the upcoming U.S. cotton planting report [1] Market Overview - The latest price index for 328-grade cotton is 14,891 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] - The planting area for cotton is stable with an expected increase in new cotton production [1] - The cotton yarn market remains sluggish, with textile enterprises reducing prices to sell, and downstream orders showing no improvement [1] Production and Inventory - In May, cotton yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year to 1.951 million tons, while fabric production decreased by 3.3% to 2.67 billion meters [1] - Cumulative yarn production from January to May reached 9.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while cumulative fabric production was 12.63 billion meters, a slight increase of 0.2% [1] - Chemical fiber production in May rose by 5.2% year-on-year to 7.349 million tons [1] International Market Dynamics - The U.S. cotton planting progress is at 85%, down from 89% year-on-year, with a good quality rate of 48%, compared to 54% last year [1] - The USDA's June supply and demand report adjusted U.S. cotton exports for the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons, with ending stocks reduced to 960,000 tons [1] - The CFTC fund's net positions are low, indicating strong support for ICE cotton prices [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, contributing to a significant drop in overnight ICE cotton prices [1] - Short-term fundamentals are limited, leading to narrow fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with a need to monitor macroeconomic changes [1]