"虽然7月产量、出口和库存较上月环比均有所增加，但产量、期末库存相较市场预估值更低"，国元期 货分析师刘金鹭表示，因马来西亚棕榈油实际库存情况好于预期，使得市场对供应过剩的恐慌情绪得到 缓解，进一步强化了价格上涨的动力。 广发期货研究员王泽辉进一步指出，马来西亚库存数据比预期低，和该国国内棕榈油消费强劲有一定关 系。据其分析，7月份马来西亚棕榈油国内消费量达近五年来新高，为48.27万吨，而往年这个季节消费 量大约为35万吨，除稳定增长的食用需求外，生物柴油或贡献了较大的增量消费。 需求端的另一重利好则来自印度排灯节的提前备货。王泽辉表示，因今年印度排灯节为10月21号，印度 预计9月中下旬将展开排灯节植物油备货，从当前的比价关系来看，棕榈油具备一定的价格优势。同时 印度7月份的植物油库存处于五年来的新低，印度国内油脂短期内依然存在较大缺口，排灯节所带来的 油脂需求或将持续提振行情。 新华财经北京8月19日电 在多重利好驱动下，近期棕榈油价格持续上行。今日马来西亚衍生品交易所 （BMD）棕榈油主力合约盘中涨至4614令吉／吨，为今年3月以来新高，而国内棕榈油期货亦跟随其走 势，主力合约价格盘中创下年内新高。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [3] Core Insights - Palm oil is the largest vegetable oil in terms of production, consumption, and international trade, accounting for over 30% of total vegetable oil production. The main production countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, which together account for 87% of global palm oil production. Global palm oil consumption is expected to reach 77.22 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [5][29][35] Market Background - Palm oil production is primarily concentrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with Indonesia producing 46 million tons (59% of global production), Malaysia 18.7 million tons (24%), and Thailand 3.33 million tons (4%) in 2024. The total global palm oil production is projected to be 78.25 million tons [29][35] - Global palm oil consumption is concentrated in Asia and Europe, with Indonesia consuming 23.28 million tons (30%), India 8.8 million tons (11%), China 4.6 million tons (6%), and the EU 3.85 million tons (5%) in 2024 [35][39] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short-term supply is recovering, with Malaysia's palm oil production increasing by 12% year-on-year in April. However, long-term production growth potential is limited due to declining planting areas and aging oil palm trees in Malaysia. Indonesia's biodiesel policy is expected to drive consumption growth [6][57][66] - The demand for palm oil is supported by the biodiesel market, particularly in Indonesia, where domestic consumption has risen significantly due to biodiesel policies. The B40 policy is expected to add 2-3 million tons of palm oil consumption annually [66]