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申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20260401
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 03:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, and although it is slower than last year, a bumper harvest is expected. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase due to the high soybean - corn price ratio and rising fertilizer prices. The medium - term domestic supply of protein meal is expected to be loose, suppressing prices [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of oils was strong. The US bio - diesel policy RVO quantity is in line with expectations, and Indonesia plans to implement the B50 bio - diesel policy, which is expected to boost palm oil demand. The oil market is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the co - existence of fundamental pressure and positive policy expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the soybean oil主力's previous day's closing price was 8668, with a decline of 46 and a decline rate of - 0.53% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc., are provided, along with their current and previous values [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures like BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc., are given. For instance, BMD palm oil's previous day's closing price was 4666, with an increase of 221 and an increase rate of 4.97% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices and their percentage changes of various products in different regions are shown, including soybean oil, palm oil, etc. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8990, with an increase rate of 0.45% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different products are provided, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 322, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 630 [2]. Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts - **Import Profit**: Current and previous values of import profit for various imported products like Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, etc., are presented. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 495 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products such as soybean oil, palm oil, etc., are given. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 0, and the previous value was 13,019 [2]. Industry Information - **USDA Report**: The USDA's planting intention report predicts that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will be 84.7 million acres, and the wheat planting area will be 43.775 million acres, which are different from Reuters' expectations [3]. - **Brazilian Exports**: Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export estimates are slightly lower than last week's forecasts [3]. - **Brazilian Harvest**: As of March 28, Brazil's soybean harvest rate is 74.3%, slower than last year but still expected to be a bumper harvest [3].
格林大华期货早盘提示:三油,两粕-20260401
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, due to ongoing instability in the Middle East, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and Indonesia's clear B50 plan schedule, vegetable oils are expected to follow the trend of crude oil. It is recommended to hold long positions in vegetable oils [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), due to the lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, the short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 31, palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US EPA requires the production and use of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase by over 60% compared to 2025, and raises the proportion of the fuel quota for large refineries from 50% to 70% [1]. - Indonesia will implement a fuel rationing system, transfer the national institutional budget to "productive" uses, and implement the B50 biodiesel policy from July 1 [1]. - US NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Tuesday. The May crude oil futures contract fell $1.5, with a settlement price of $101.38 per barrel [1]. - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.92% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Brazil's Abiove suggests increasing the proportion of biodiesel in regular diesel, while the energy minister calls for more tests [1]. - The US CPC predicts that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in the next month, and El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of the year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% compared to the same period last month, with an increase in exports to China [1][2]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of three major domestic edible oils increased by 0.36% week - on - week and decreased by 5.92% year - on - year, with different trends in each type of oil [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to instability in the Middle East and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the US soybean oil futures are oscillating strongly at a high level. Indonesia's B50 plan tightens the future export expectation of palm oil. Vegetable oils mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and long positions in vegetable oils should be continued to hold [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 31, the spot market was weak, and double - meal continued to decline. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, higher than last year but lower than analysts' expectations [2]. - As of March 27, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 72.99%, lower than last year but close to the five - year average [2]. - Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are both lower than last week's forecasts [3]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory increased, while domestic soybean meal contract volume decreased. Imported rapeseed inventory and imported rapeseed meal contract volume both decreased [3]. - Provide spot prices, basis prices, and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal as of March 31, as well as soybean crushing profits and soybean and rapeseed arrival costs [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean futures closed higher due to the lower - than - expected planting area. The short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. In the spot market, the price of soybean meal is expected to move down with the market, and short - term caution is advised for rapeseed meal. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Gradually close near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [3].
2Q26商品风险:地缘风险
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 14:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the risks and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors in the second quarter of 2026, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that each sector faces different challenges and uncertainties, such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, high inventory, and weak demand. The report also provides corresponding investment strategies and risk management suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Precious Metals: Geopolitical Inflation Expectations Suppress Non-interest-bearing Assets - The Fed faces a dilemma between a weak employment market and inflation in 2Q, and any attempt to front-run the Fed's rate cuts will face high policy risk [4][5]. - The high-frequency switching of the Fed's monetary policy path has led to sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, and the market's pricing of rate cuts has converged significantly [7]. - The geopolitical conflict has changed the transmission path of precious metals, and inflation expectations have led to a shift of funds from precious metals to high-yield assets, suppressing precious metal valuations [18]. - The repeated swings between negotiation and military confrontation between the US and Iran have made the driving effect of geopolitical events on precious metals turn into high-frequency and disordered two-way fluctuations [24]. Non-ferrous Metals: Macro Valuation Decline and Micro High Inventory - The overseas macro environment shows signs of stagflation, and interest rates and the US dollar put pressure on the valuation of non-ferrous metals [26][27]. - The high inventory situation in the non-ferrous metals market makes the market prone to narrow and violent fluctuations, and the supply side is vulnerable to non-economic factors [31][33][34]. Black Commodities: Negative Feedback under High Inventory and Weak Demand - The fundamentals of black commodities in 2Q have negative feedback risks, and the supply pressure of raw materials and the high inventory situation may lead to a negative feedback loop [36][39]. - The iron ore and coking coal markets face different risks, and the high valuation of ferroalloys lacks solid support [39]. Energy Chemicals: Geopolitical Premium - The energy chemicals market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, and the blind judgment of the geopolitical situation may lead to a sharp decline in prices [48]. - The logistics reconstruction and basis risk in the energy chemicals market require traders to have strong time window control ability [51]. Agricultural Products: Biodiesel Policy and El Niño - The cost pricing logic of agricultural products has changed, and the easing of the Middle East situation may lead to a collapse of cost support [59]. - The supply growth of agricultural products is expected to be realized in 2Q, but the demand is weak, and the prices of some products may face downward pressure [64]. - The climate pattern switch and policy tail risks may have a significant impact on the agricultural products market [67]. Summary and Response - Precious metals: Adopt risk control as the top priority, build long-term strategic positions, and use options for risk management [69]. - Non-ferrous metals: Construct bullish call spread combinations and seagull option strategies for different types of enterprises [69]. - Black commodities: Adopt defensive and short-selling strategies, use arbitrage strategies and options to manage risks, and closely monitor marginal changes [69]. - Energy chemicals: Do not recommend unilateral trading, and construct seagull option strategy systems for upstream and midstream enterprises [69]. - Agricultural products: Adopt a band trading strategy, use arbitrage strategies to hedge risks, and strictly control positions [69].
农产品日报-20260330
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 13:36
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Corn: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybeans are weak, and the marginal supply has increased due to continued auction on the policy side. The futures contracts are likely undergoing position transfer operations. The subsequent price guidance depends on the impact of the Middle - East situation on energy prices, as well as macro - expectations and capital trends [2] - The US is expected to increase the soybean planting area in 2026. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March is expected to increase year - on - year. The prices of soybeans and soybean meal are affected by multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation, energy and fertilizer markets, Trump's visit to China, and climate changes [3] - The US EPA's new regulations on renewable fuels have been implemented, and the market has taken profit. The Middle - East situation has different impacts on biodiesel in the US and Indonesia. The supply chain risks of agricultural products are still uncertain, and the subsequent price guidance depends on the Middle - East situation and macro - expectations [4] - After the US biodiesel policy details are clear, the focus of the rapeseed market may return to the supply side. The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed products is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [6] - The prices of corn in some ports are stable or slightly down. The increase in wheat auction volume may impact corn prices. The futures are mainly weak [7] - The far - month contracts of live pigs are weak, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The supply - demand situation is loose this year, and the pig prices have no reversal logic [8] - The egg futures show a volatile trend. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot prices have the basis to strengthen [9] Summary by Category Soybean - The price of domestic soybeans is weak, and the policy - side auction has increased marginal supply. The futures contracts are likely in the process of position transfer. The previous week, 104,000 tons of soybeans were auctioned, with 64,900 tons actually traded at a base price of 4,500 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,505 yuan/ton [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The US is expected to plant 85.549 million acres of soybeans in 2026, higher than the previous value and the USDA's February forecast. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March is expected to be about 8.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2 million tons. Multiple factors affect the prices of soybeans and soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The US EPA has raised the production and consumption of renewable fuels. The market has taken profit after the policy is implemented. The Middle - East situation has different impacts on biodiesel in the US and Indonesia. The supply chain risks of agricultural products are uncertain [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - After the US biodiesel policy is clear, the focus of the rapeseed market may return to the supply side. The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed products is expected to increase, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [6] Corn - The prices of corn in some ports are stable or slightly down. The increase in wheat auction volume may impact corn prices. The futures are mainly weak, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress in the Northeast, state - reserve auction information, and futures capital trends [7] Live Pigs - The far - month contracts of live pigs are weak, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The supply - demand situation is loose this year, and the pig prices have no reversal logic. The current pig prices need to remain low to promote capacity reduction [8] Eggs - The egg futures show a volatile trend. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot prices have the basis to strengthen. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and attention should be paid to whether the futures prices stabilize and rise at low levels [9]
棕榈油突发大涨,原油+出口双重利好支撑,后市怎么看?
对冲研投· 2026-03-30 10:44
Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by multiple factors including rising international crude oil prices, strong Malaysian export data, tightening supply, and increasing demand for biodiesel [6][8]. Market Performance - On March 30, the main palm oil futures contract P2605 opened at 9,800 CNY/ton, reached a high of 9,974 CNY/ton, and closed at 9,930 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 274 CNY (2.84%) from the previous trading day's settlement price [2]. - Trading volume was 501,200 lots, showing a significant increase in activity, while open interest decreased by 12,300 lots, indicating a mix of profit-taking and new long positions [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply Side: Malaysian palm oil production is in a seasonal decline, with March production down 11.21% compared to the previous month. The global supply is tightening due to adverse weather conditions and low replanting rates in Malaysia [8][10]. - Demand Side: Strong external demand is noted, with Malaysian palm oil exports increasing significantly in March. Domestic demand is primarily driven by industrial needs, particularly biodiesel, while edible oil demand is subdued due to high prices [9][10]. Cost and Profit Analysis - Rising energy costs are supporting palm oil prices, while production costs are also increasing due to higher fertilizer and labor expenses. The current import profit for palm oil is negative, limiting the incentive for imports [12]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions like Galaxy Futures and Everbright Futures suggest that palm oil prices are likely to remain strong in the short term, supported by rising crude oil prices and strong Malaysian exports. However, caution is advised regarding potential seasonal production increases and high domestic inventories [13][14]. Market Outlook - Short-term: Palm oil prices are expected to maintain a strong upward trend, potentially challenging the 10,000 CNY/ton mark, with key support from high crude oil prices and strong export data [14]. - Medium-term: The market may enter a phase of "supply recovery + demand differentiation," with increasing supply pressures from April onwards, while industrial demand remains supported by biodiesel policies [15].
油料周报-20260327
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 12:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term supply of the oilseed industry is in excess. Although the short - term import rhythm has slowed down, it is difficult to change the long - term surplus pattern. For example, the long - term supply of soybean meal is relatively excessive, and the supply of rapeseed meal is also under pressure [2]. - Different oils have different supply - demand situations. For instance, soybean oil has a double - weak supply - demand pattern, palm oil has a high - inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil has a tight supply pattern but is also affected by policy uncertainties [39][40][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Likely Factors**: Short - term supply tightening, with relatively insufficient arrivals of South American soybeans in March compared to last year. Some oil mills shut down for maintenance due to lack of soybeans, and the开机率 is not high. The demand side shows that the hog inventory has recovered, and the concentrated entry of secondary fattening has increased the rigid demand for feed, with the提货 volume of feed enterprises in March increasing year - on - year [2]. - **Negative Factors**: The high - yield pressure in South America continues to materialize. The soybean harvest progress in Brazil is accelerating, and the output is expected to reach a historical high. The global soybean stock - to - consumption ratio has rebounded. From April, the arrival volume of imported soybeans is expected to increase to over 8 million tons, and the probability of soybean meal inventory accumulation in the later period is high, with significant long - term supply pressure [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Likely Factors**: Strong policy support. Since March 20, China has imposed a 100% tariff on imported Canadian rapeseed meal, and the import volume is expected to drop sharply from April. The arrival of rapeseed at coastal oil mills in China has slowed down, the crushing volume has gradually decreased, and the rapeseed inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand for aquaculture has weakened in the short term. The fundamentals of rapeseed meal are slightly weak, and there is still supply pressure. The short - term increase in rapeseed meal from countries such as India and Russia is limited, and the sustainability of Australian rapeseed imports is worthy of attention. In the later period, the import changes of Canadian rapeseed need to be continuously monitored, as Canadian rapeseed is entering the supply peak, and domestic rapeseed will also gradually come on the market in April and May [3]. 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - **Likely Factors**: The US biodiesel policy continues to be effective. The USDA expects the US soybean oil biodiesel consumption to reach 14.8 billion pounds in the 2025/26 fiscal year, a year - on - year increase of 25.87%, and to increase to 17.3 billion pounds in the 2026/27 fiscal year. The arrival of soybeans in China decreased in March, the operation of oil mills was unstable, and the tight提货 in some storage areas supported the spot price. The international crude oil price remained high due to geopolitical factors, indirectly boosting industrial consumption demand [39]. - **Negative Factors**: The concentrated listing of Brazilian soybeans has led to a loose global supply, with a relative surplus at the raw material end. The domestic soybean oil inventory is still at a historical high, and the downstream demand is weak during the off - season, presenting a double - weak supply - demand pattern. After April, the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans will put greater pressure on inventory recovery [39]. 3.3.2 Palm Oil - **Likely Factors**: Overseas biodiesel still boosts oils, and the overseas palm oil has driven up the domestic import cost. Crude oil has a significant short - term impact on oils, and it is recommended to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East [40]. - **Negative Factors**: The seasonal production recovery pressure is emerging, and both the main producing countries and China are under high - inventory pressure. The internal and external supply - demand is relatively weak, and the seasonal increase in production may exacerbate the supply surplus [40]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Likely Factors**: The tight supply pattern continues. China has not yet resumed the purchase of Canadian rapeseed, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low. The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have caused a short - term increase in the international rapeseed futures price, providing support at the cost end. Crude oil has a significant short - term impact on oils [41]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic downstream has limited acceptance of high - priced rapeseed oil, restricting the price increase space. After the post - holiday replenishment, the demand has declined periodically. Statistics Canada expects the rapeseed planting area in 2026 to increase to 22.3 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. If the final result of the Sino - Canadian anti - dumping investigation opens the import window for Canadian rapeseed, the tight domestic supply pattern will be quickly alleviated, and policy uncertainties pose the main risk [41].
油脂周度行情观察-20260327
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 11:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - All three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) are experiencing high - level oscillations. The situation is influenced by factors such as the ongoing Middle - East conflict, fluctuations in crude oil prices, production and supply changes, and demand trends [4]. - For palm oil, the production area is about to enter the production - increasing cycle, but the production in the first half of March in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. In China, the demand is weak [4]. - For soybean oil, the domestic soybean arrivals decreased, the oil mill operating rate reached a high level, and the production increased. However, it is the traditional off - season with weak demand. The supply may be tight in March - April due to some oil mill maintenance plans. The US RVO final plan and Brazilian biodiesel policy also affect the demand [4]. - For rapeseed oil, the cumulative export volume of Canadian rapeseed decreased, leading to a price increase and cost support. The domestic production and inventory decreased, and the supply shortage will be improved when rapeseed arrives in April - May [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Palm Oil**: It is in high - level oscillation. Affected by the Middle - East conflict and crude oil price fluctuations, the production area is about to enter the production - increasing cycle. Due to the Eid al - Fitr, the production in the first half of March in Malaysia continued to decline, exports increased significantly, and the inventory is still high but expected to decline. The good biodiesel profit in Indonesia and the promotion of the B50 plan support the demand. The domestic demand is weak [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is in high - level oscillation. The domestic soybean arrivals decreased, the oil mill operating rate reached a high level, and the production increased. The inventory decreased month - on - month, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season. Some oil mills have maintenance plans in March - April, and the supply may be tight. The US RVO final plan and Brazilian biodiesel policy affect the demand. It is also influenced by the high - level operation of crude oil prices due to the Middle - East conflict [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is in high - level oscillation. As of mid - March, the cumulative export volume of Canadian rapeseed decreased by 25.2% year - on - year, leading to a price increase and cost support. The domestic production and inventory decreased slightly and are at a low level year - on - year. Rapeseed will arrive in April - May, which will improve the supply shortage. The US biodiesel policy and the Middle - East conflict also affect the demand [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - **Palm Oil**: As of March 20, 6 new purchase ships were added in China, with 4 for April and 2 for September [10]. - **Soybean Oil**: The domestic oil mill operating rate is at a high level, and the supply increased slightly. As of March 20, the soybean arrivals were 144.95 tons, the port inventory was 513.1 tons (decreased month - on - month), the soybean crushing volume was 199.05 tons, the operating rate was 54.81%, and the soybean oil production was 37.81 tons (an increase of 0.4 tons month - on - month) [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The production decreased month - on - month. As of March 20, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.96 tons [10]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Palm Oil**: As of March 20, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 3300 tons, indicating weak demand [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 20, the weekly domestic soybean oil transaction volume was 13.17 tons, a decrease of 10.95 tons month - on - month. It is the off - season, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of March 20, the rapeseed oil pick - up volume of coastal oil mills was 0.343 tons, a decrease of 0.99 tons month - on - month [7]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil inventory is high. As of March 20, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 80.82 tons, a decrease of 3.38 tons compared with last week [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The inventory is decreasing. As of March 20, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 86.07 tons, a decrease of 2.52 tons month - on - month [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of March 20, the rapeseed oil inventory was 28.1 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons month - on - month and at a low level year - on - year [8]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit As of March 20, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was 1188 US dollars/ton, and the import cost was 9796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 176 yuan/ton compared with last week [9]. 3.3 Malaysian Palm Oil Situation 3.3.1 Production In February, affected by rainfall and fewer working days, the Malaysian palm oil production was 128.46 tons, a decrease of 18.55% month - on - month. The production area is about to enter the traditional production - increasing season, and the production is expected to increase. SPPOMA showed that from March 1 - 15, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.96% compared with the same period last month, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.44%, and the production decreased by 5.28% [15]. 3.3.2 Inventory In February, the inventory was 270.42 tons, a decrease of 3.94% month - on - month. The inventory is higher than market expectations and still has pressure, which suppresses the price. In early March, the production decreased and exports increased, so the inventory pressure is expected to be relieved [15]. 3.3.3 Export In February, the Malaysian palm oil export was 112.76 tons, a decrease of 22.48% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia increased the palm oil export tax, and the pre - export in February in Indonesia squeezed Malaysia's export, resulting in a decline in Malaysia's palm oil export volume. In early March, the export rebounded. According to AmSpec, the export volume from March 1 - 20 was 1166586 tons, a 49.6% increase compared with the same period last month. According to ITS, the export volume from March 1 - 20 was 1191962 tons, a 38.1% increase compared with the same period [18]. 3.3.4 Consumption The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 34.4 tons, a decrease of 11.85% month - on - month [18]. 3.4 Domestic Palm Oil Situation - As of March 20, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 80.82 tons, a decrease of 4.01 tons, and the inventory is at a high level. In February, the domestic palm oil import volume was 26 tons, an increase year - on - year [20]. - As of March 20, the palm oil transaction volume was 3300 tons, and the transaction is at a low level [23]. - As of March 20, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 169 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton month - on - month [27]. 3.5 Domestic Soybean Oil Situation - As of March 20, the soybean arrivals decreased, the port inventory was 513.1 tons (decreased), and the soybean crushing volume was 199.05 tons, an increase of 2.11 tons month - on - month [29]. - As of March 20, the oil mill operating rate was 54.81%, the soybean oil production was 37.81 tons (supply increased and is at a high level year - on - year), and the inventory of 90 sample enterprises was 86.07 tons, a decrease of 2.52 tons month - on - month [31]. 3.6 Domestic Rapeseed Oil Situation - As of March 20, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.96 tons, and the short - term supply is still at a low level. The small - sample rapeseed oil inventory was 28.1 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month [35].
《农产品》日报-20260327
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 03:18
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to break through the 4,600 ringgit resistance, and Dalian palm oil futures may break through the 9,700 yuan resistance [1]. - CBOT soybean oil is expected to reach 70 cents, and domestic soybean oil has both bullish and bearish factors [1]. - Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures have a chance to rebound, with the upper pressure range at 9,900 - 10,000 yuan [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures hit an 11 - month high. The domestic cotton market is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' order - receiving and macro - level news [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures reached a more than five - month high. The domestic sugar market is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the mitigation of external risk factors [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry - The jujube market is currently in a state of weak futures and spot prices, and the futures price is expected to remain at a low level in the short - term [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high level. The spot market is differentiated. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking of ordinary apples and weather changes [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn prices are oscillating at a high level, with support from limited remaining grain and rigid demand, and suppression from grain substitution and policy releases. The operation range is mainly between 2,350 - 2,420 yuan [7]. 2.7 Meal Industry - US soybeans have rebounded near 1,160 cents. Domestic soybean meal sentiment has cooled, and the market is waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig market is in a weak state. Spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, and the futures market is in a reverse - spread pattern. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 7 or 5 - 9 reverse - spread opportunities [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The egg supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The egg price may face pressure near 3,550 - 3,600 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - On March 26, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.02% to 8,950 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 increased by 1.12% to 8,646 yuan [1]. - The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.03% to 9,603 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 increased by 1.09% to 9,614 yuan [1]. - The price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.28% to 10,268 yuan, and the futures price of OIROS increased by 1.37% to 9,840 yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 1.24% to - 653 yuan, and the soybean - palm oil futures spread (2605) decreased by 0.83% to - 968 yuan [1]. - The rapeseed - soybean spot spread increased by 3.13% to 1,318 yuan, and the rapeseed - soybean futures spread (2605) increased by 3.20% to 1,194 yuan [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry 3.2.1 Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 1.35% to 15,420 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 1.24% to 12,242 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton increased by 10.71% to - 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.14% to 16,597 yuan, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% to 16,745 yuan [2]. - The FC Index: M: 1% increased by 1.55% to 13,270 yuan [2]. 3.2.3 Industry Situation - The small - scale inventory decreased by 100.0% to 0.00 tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 tons [2]. - The import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 tons [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.63% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.44% to 5,485 yuan/ton [3]. - The 5 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 31.25% to - 22 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The Guoyuan price remained unchanged at 5,470 yuan, and the Nanning price increased by 0.09% to 5,325 yuan [3]. - The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 1.55% to 4,331 yuan/ton, and the import price of Brazilian sugar (outside quota) decreased by 1.58% to 5,497 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926.00 tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 27.39% to 345.00 tons [3]. - The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 tons, and the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi increased by 20.16% to 162.23 tons [3]. 3.4 Jujube Industry - The price of jujube 2605 decreased by 0.62% to 8,835 yuan/ton, and the price of jujube 2607 decreased by 0.94% to 9,060 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 7 spread of jujube decreased by 170 yuan to - 140 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of jujube increased by 35 yuan to - 340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry - The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.32% to 9,946 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 increased by 0.21% to 8,684 yuan/ton [5]. - The 5 - 10 spread of apple decreased by 3.81% to 1,262 yuan/ton [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Corn - The price of corn 2605 remained unchanged at 2,376 yuan/ton, and the basis remained unchanged at 14 yuan [7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of corn decreased by 26.09% to - 29 yuan [7]. 3.6.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.07% to 2,765 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 2.39% to 204 yuan [7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of corn starch increased by 41.18% to - 10 yuan [7]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Soybean Meal - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3,280 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.68% to 2,952 yuan [10]. - The basis of M2605 decreased by 5.75% to 328 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Rapeseed Meal - The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.39% to 2,570 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.21% to 2,344 yuan [10]. - The basis of RM2605 increased by 2.26% to 226 yuan [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Futures Market - The price of the main pig contract decreased by 1.45% to 9,835 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread of pigs decreased by 6.39% to - 1,415 yuan [12]. 3.8.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 9,500 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan to 9,700 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.3 Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.93% to 182,741, and the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.86% to 17.25 yuan [12]. - The weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 26.20 yuan/kg, and the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.45 yuan/kg [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry - The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 2.64% to 3,418 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 2.99% to 3,512 yuan/500KG [14]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 0.47% to 3.30 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 28.03% to - 116 yuan/500KG [14].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20260327
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:02
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may break through the 4,600 ringgit resistance. Dalian palm oil futures have a chance to continue rising after breaking through the 9,700 yuan resistance. CBOT soybean oil's May contract may reach 70 cents. Domestic soybean oil has a mixed fundamental situation. Rapeseed oil has a chance to rebound, with the upper pressure range at 9,900 - 10,000 yuan [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures reached an 11 - month high. The US 2026 cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' order - receiving and macro news [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures reached a more than five - month high. The domestic sugar market is likely to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the alleviation of external risks [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is currently weak both in futures and spot. It is in the low - valuation range and is expected to maintain low - level operation in the short - term [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high. The spot market is differentiated. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking of ordinary apples and weather changes [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn prices are supported by limited remaining grain and rigid demand, and suppressed by grain substitution and policy releases. It will maintain a high - level shock in the range of 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [7]. 2.7 Meal Industry - US soybeans have rebounded near 1,160 cents. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the short - term inventory is not loose. Attention should be paid to the planting intention report at the end of March [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig market is in a weak pattern. The spot price is expected to continue to bottom out, and the futures market may have opportunities for reverse spreads [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The egg supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The egg price may face pressure near 3,550 - 3,600 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Price Changes**: On March 26, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.02% to 8,950 yuan/ton; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.03% to 9,603 yuan/ton; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.28% to 10,268 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 1.24%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread increased by 3.13% [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 increased by 1.35% to 15,420 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 1.24% to 12,242 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.14% to 16,597 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B increased by 0.20% to 16,745 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The small - scale inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.63% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.44% to 5,485 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,470 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.09% to 5,325 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production decreased by 4.69%, the sales volume decreased by 27.39%, and the industrial inventory increased by 17.03% [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.62% to 8,835 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.94% to 9,060 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained unchanged [4]. - **Industry Situation**: As of March 27, the inventory of 36 sample points was 11,459 tons, a decrease of 81 tons from last week [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.32% to 9,946 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 increased by 0.21% to 8,684 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume of some fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 tons as of March 26 [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 remained unchanged at 2,376 yuan/ton, the basis remained unchanged at 14 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.09% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.07% to 2,765 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 2.39% [7]. 3.7 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,280 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.68% to 2,952 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 5.75% [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39% to 2,570 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.21% to 2,344 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 2.26% [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 decreased by 1.45% to 9,835 yuan/ton, and the price of live pigs 2607 decreased by 0.53% to 11,250 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions generally decreased, and the sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.93% [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 2.64% to 3,418 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 2.99% to 3,512 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.47% to 3.30 yuan/jin, and the base difference increased by 28.03% [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg - laying hen chick price increased by 2.86% to 3.60 yuan/feather, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 9.98% [14].
格林大华期货早盘提示:三油,两粕-20260327
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 01:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the uncertain Middle - East situation, international crude oil prices are oscillating between 80 - 100. Vegetable oils follow the trend of crude oil. Palm oil adjustment is basically in place, short - positions should exit, and new long - positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils are oscillating at high levels [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), near - month short - positions should gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 26, international crude oil stabilized, and vegetable oils stopped falling. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8,646 yuan/ton, up 1.12% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 9,356 lots. The second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8,588 yuan/ton, up 1.27% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 17,636 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9,614 yuan/ton, up 1.09% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 5,170 lots. The second - main contract P2609 closed at 9,610 yuan/ton, up 1.05% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 14,286 lots. The main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9,840 yuan/ton, up 1.37% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 1,527 lots. The second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9,738 yuan/ton, up 1.24% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 7,804 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 26, NYMEX crude oil futures rebounded, with the most actively traded May crude oil futures contract rising $4.16, or 4.61%, to settle at $94.48 per barrel [1]. - The market generally expects an announcement on biofuel mandatory blending targets on Friday [1]. - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate. Short - term production may decline due to plantation workers going home for Eid al - Fitr, but is expected to recover after the holiday [1]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggests that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war. The Brazilian energy minister calls for more tests before increasing the current legally mandated 15% biodiesel blending ratio [1]. - The US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports that La Nina is still ongoing, is expected to turn into ENSO neutral next month, and is likely to remain neutral from May - July 2026. El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [1]. - The shipping survey agency ITS shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase compared to 1,022,673 tons in the same period of February. Exports to China were 90,400 tons, an increase of 38,400 tons compared to the previous month [1]. - Due to the ongoing Middle - East war, supply concerns drive up crude oil prices, making palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material. Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 990,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%; edible palm oil inventory was 748,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.75%; rapeseed oil inventory was 295,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 66.81% [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the Middle - East situation is uncertain, international crude oil prices are oscillating at high levels, the US biodiesel policy is about to be finalized, and the USDA quarterly report will be released at the end of the month. There are many uncertainties internationally, and the US soybean oil market is oscillating strongly at high levels. Malaysian palm oil stops falling and rebounds following international crude oil prices. Domestically, soybean oil mills are shutting down one after another, and it is rumored that there will be large - scale shutdowns at the end of March and early April. However, market demand is currently weak, with both long and short factors coexisting. Palm oil mainly follows the trend of crude oil. If the Middle - East dispute cannot be effectively resolved, international oil prices will remain strong. Rapeseed oil oscillates at high levels due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, palm oil adjustment is basically in place, and new long - positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate strongly at high levels. The resistance level of Y2605 is 9,300, and the support level is 8,048; the resistance level of Y2609 is 9,700, and the support level is 8,054; the resistance level of P2605 is 12,000, and the support level is 8,776; the resistance level of P2609 is 12,000, and the support level is 8,710; the resistance level of OI2605 is 12,000, and the support level is 9,212; the resistance level of OI2609 is 12,000, and the support level is 9,180 [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 26, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, and double - meal prices were under pressure. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2,952 yuan/ton, up 0.68% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 57,311 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 3,030 yuan/ton, up 0.76% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 48,167 lots; the main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2,344 yuan/ton, up 0.21% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 11,590 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2,422 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 8,687 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - AgMarket.net expects the US soybean planting area this spring to reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the 85 million acres predicted by the USDA in February [2]. - Patria AgroNegocios reports that the soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 65.79%, behind last year's 73.84% but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in March will be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 16.32 million tons. Brazil's soybean meal exports in March are expected to reach 2.44 million tons, also lower than last week's forecast of 2.66 million tons [3]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons from last week's 5.8215 million tons. The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 672,600 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%; the contract volume was 4.5078 million tons, a decrease of 374,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 24,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%; the contract volume was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, and US soybeans are boosted. Affected by the low - level consolidation of external futures prices and the cooling of capital sentiment, and with the resumption of normal shipping in Brazil after continuous communication between the Chinese and Brazilian agricultural departments, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal focuses on the support at the 2,900 yuan/ton mark. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreases by 20 - 60 yuan/ton with the market. The near - month basis is temporarily stable. As the traditional shutdown season approaches, oil mills maintain their price - support sentiment. However, the breeding industry is suffering serious losses, and the market purchasing and sales slow down. The spot price in East China has partially fallen below 3,200 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term spot price center will move down with the market, and attention should be paid to the shutdown rhythm of manufacturers. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly viewed in the short - term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2,350 yuan. In the spot market, market transactions are relatively limited, and terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The basis quotes in each region are adjusted narrowly. Overall, near - month short - positions should gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For double - meal, near - month short - positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. The resistance level of M2605 is 3,278, and the support level is 2,710; the resistance level of M2607 is 3,000, and the support level is 2,680; the resistance level of M2509 is 3,200, and the support level is 2,833; the resistance level of RM2605 is 2,600, and the support level is 2,220; the resistance level of RM2607 is 2,560, and the support level is 2,200; the resistance level of RM2609 is 2,600, and the support level is 2,274 [3].