投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-3-4 地缘扰动持续，油脂油料波动偏大 油脂：地缘扰动持续提振油脂走势 蛋白粕：现货购销延续清淡，双粕盘面波动加剧 玉米：玉米高位震荡，关注潮粮上量节奏 生猪：猪粮比持续下跌，猪肉收储 天然橡胶：跟随情绪走高，关注前高压力 合成橡胶：维持高位运行 棉花：延续震荡整理，回调低多思路维持 白糖：广西收榨预计放缓，糖价短期或震荡，中长期预计仍偏弱 纸浆：金融市场氛围分化，纸浆偏弱表现 双胶纸：部分纸企喊涨，双胶盘面区间偏强 原木：现货提涨，区间偏强 【异动品种】 油脂观点：地缘扰动持续提振油脂⾛势 逻辑：宏观层面：中东局势动荡，美国和以色列对伊朗的军事打击持续， 霍尔木兹海峡暂时关闭对全球海上石油贸易运输带来较大风险，OPEC+成 员国宣布提高原油日产量，原油价格高位震荡，未来仍需关注中东战乱持 续时间，以及对原油供应的影响程度。油脂期货方面，美豆油受到原油飙 升以及生物柴油政策预期利好支撑走势偏强，同时注意价格已经涨幅较 大，注意支撑因素消化后，或者原油滞涨回落，导致美豆油可能出现高位 调整风险。棕榈油：马来西亚南部棕果厂商公会 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-3-3 原油暴涨，植物油震荡偏强 油脂：原油暴涨，油脂震荡偏强 蛋白粕：双粕短期有技术调整压力 玉米：情绪升温，期现共振上行 生猪：供强需弱，猪价下跌 天然橡胶：跟随情绪走高，关注前高压力 合成橡胶：板块大涨带动冲高 棉花：进入回调整理阶段 白糖：糖价短期或小幅反弹，但中长期维持震荡偏弱预期 纸浆：现货表现不强，纸浆期货偏弱 双胶纸：节后需求暂无启动，双胶纸震荡运行 原木：购销清淡，窄幅震荡 【异动品种】 油脂观点：原油暴涨，植物油震荡偏强 逻辑：宏观层面：中东局势动荡，美国和以色列对伊朗的军事打击持续， 市场关注霍尔木兹海峡的通航情况，将对全球海上石油贸易带来较大不确 定性，原油价格短期出现大幅上涨，未来仍需关注中东战乱持续时间，以 及对原油运输带来的的影响程度。油脂期货方面，美豆油受到原油飙升以 及生物柴油政策预期利好支撑走势偏强，同时注意价格已经涨幅较大，注 意支撑因素消化后，或者原油滞涨回落，导致美豆油可能出现高位调整风 险。棕榈油：马来西亚南部棕果厂商公会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2月1- 25日马来西亚棕榈油产量 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年03月02日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 豆粕 莱粕 | なな☆ ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | なな☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约经过近期上涨之后出现大幅减仓,价格冲高回落。目前现货市场观望情绪偏浓厚,并且在等待国储拍卖动 向。国产大豆和进口大豆价差2月份快速扩大之后也表现为徘徊态势，美盘大豆近期偏强，得益于美国生物柴油政策的提振以及 对贸易端的乐观预期，不过从技术层面看，经过近期的上涨叠加中东局势推升，美豆接近技术压力位。密切关注中东局势对大 宗商品及物流的影响。短期注意国产大豆高位大幅减仓带来的波动风险。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the US soybean market enters the resonance period of the old and new crop years. The export and crushing demand of the old crop year remain the focus of the market. The increase in Chinese purchases and the improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations may boost US soybean exports. The crushing demand is still strong, and the tight inventory situation may support the futures price. The CBOT soybean may fluctuate around 1150 cents per bushel and may rise to 1200 cents per bushel [32][94]. - The implementation of multiple biodiesel policies in the US soybean oil market in March is crucial. If the policies are favorable, the strong expectation may turn into strong reality, and soybean oil prices may continue to rise. Otherwise, it may face a decline [48][94]. - For the Malaysian palm oil market, high inventory restricts price increases. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate at a low level. When the inventory drops below 2.4 million tons, prices may rise. In March, production may recover significantly, and the reduction of inventory depends on the increase in Indian imports [65][95]. - In March, the domestic oil inventory may increase steadily but with limited recovery. The supply of domestic soybean oil may improve in March and increase significantly in April. Palm oil inventory may remain at a relatively high level, and rapeseed oil inventory may change little due to policy uncertainties. The increase in domestic oil inventory in March may mainly rely on soybean oil [3][92][97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Market Review - In February, CBOT soybean oil rose significantly due to positive biodiesel policy expectations, rising international crude oil prices, and active fund buying. The US Treasury's 45Z proposed rules and the EPA's submission of the 2026 biofuel mandate boosted market sentiment. In contrast, Malaysian palm oil was weak, with declining export data and high inventory [9]. - Domestic oils fluctuated within a range, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising slightly following international oils, but the increase was much lower than that of the external market. Palm oil's weak performance dragged down the domestic oil market [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Oils 3.2.1 US Soybean Inventory and Market Outlook - The USDA did not adjust US soybean exports in the February supply - demand report. Although the year - on - year export sales decreased, the sales progress was in line with expectations. However, the export shipment progress was slow, and future exports may change due to factors such as tariff policies and Chinese purchases [13][14]. - The NOPA's January soybean crushing volume was high, and the crushing demand is the main force of US soybean demand. The crushing profit has continued to recover, and the crushing demand will remain strong [20][23]. - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase, but there are differences in the market's expectations. If the weather is normal, the yield is expected to increase, and the inventory in the 26/27 year may increase slightly. In the short - term, the US soybean market may maintain a strong and volatile trend [24][29]. 3.2.2 US Biodiesel Policy and Soybean Oil Market - The US biodiesel policy has not been implemented, and the consumption of US soybean oil has not increased as expected. The USDA expects the industrial consumption of US soybean oil to increase significantly in the 25/26 year [33]. - The US Treasury issued the proposed rules for biofuel tax credits in February, and the EPA is expected to finalize the biofuel blending quota rules by the end of March, which may bring positive support to US soybean oil [41]. - Currently, the supply of US soybean oil has increased significantly, but the demand growth is not obvious, and the inventory has reached a four - year high. The implementation of biodiesel policies in March is the key to the future trend of soybean oil [46][48]. 3.2.3 Malaysian Palm Oil Market - February and March are the transition months from the production - reduction to the production - increase cycle for Southeast Asian palm oil. In March, Malaysian palm oil production may increase significantly. In February, production and exports both decreased, and the inventory decline may be less than expected. In March, production and exports may both increase [51][56]. - High inventory restricts the rise of Malaysian palm oil prices. When the inventory drops below 2.4 million tons, prices may rise. The increase in Indian imports is crucial for inventory reduction [65][69]. - The production of Indonesian palm oil may decline, and the implementation of the B40 biodiesel plan has led to a continuous decline in inventory. The change of Indonesian policies may bring opportunities to the market [63]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oil Market - As of February 21, the domestic inventory of the three major vegetable oils decreased compared with the previous month. In March, the domestic oil supply is expected to increase, and it will be more abundant in April [71]. - The domestic soybean oil inventory has declined, and the demand may increase steadily in March. The supply may improve in March and increase significantly in April, and the inventory may remain stable with limited increase [76][77]. - The domestic palm oil inventory has remained at a relatively high level. Due to high prices and import losses, the market mainly makes rigid purchases, and the inventory may remain stable [79][83]. - The domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased. In March, the supply may recover, but the inventory repair is limited. The market is waiting for the relaxation of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations to increase supply [86][90]. 3.3 Fourth Part: Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In the international market, the US soybean and soybean oil markets are affected by policies and demand. The Malaysian palm oil market is restricted by inventory. In the domestic market, the inventory may increase steadily, mainly relying on soybean oil [94][97]. - Operationally, adopt a strategy of buying on dips for oils, as there are opportunities for phased price increases. Or use a double - selling options strategy based on the wide - range oscillation idea [97].

| | 操作评级 | 2026年02月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ なな女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 薬粕 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 莱油 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 玉米 | なな☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | な女女 | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 | | | 国产大豆主力合约延续上涨势头。部分产区优质大豆价格上涨，受到节后补库提振。不过普通大豆表现不如优 质大豆，需求偏疲软美盘大豆表现偏强，受到美国生物柴油乐观政策提标，另外市场也对贸易端预期偏乐观。 国内进口大豆方面市场也在关注南美大豆通关节奏。短期关注大豆政策和现货表现。 【大豆&豆粕&菜粕】 今日连粕延续震荡格局。USDA数据显示，截至2026年2月19日当周，美国2025/2026年 ...

中盛期货 三大油脂周度报告 中盛期货 20260227 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2026.2.13 | 2026.2.27 | 变动 | 涨跌幅% | 现货指标 | 2026.2.13 | 2026.2.27 | 变动 | 涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2605 | 8698 | 8780 | 82 | 0.94 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 8690 | 8666 | -24 | -0.27 | | 菜油 | OI2605 | 9038 | 9170 | 132 | 1.46 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 9780 | 9884 | 104 | 1.06 | | 豆油 | Y2605 | 8140 | 8226 | 86 | 1.06 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8354 | 8520 | 166 | ...

逻辑：油脂期货方面，利好因素消化，棕榈油出口表现弱势拖累油脂高位 回落。棕榈油：由于出口数据疲软跌幅明显，汇易网消息显示船运调查机 构称2月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油环比降低12.11%到16.05%。豆油：美豆及 美豆油走势维持高位震荡，主要受到美国生柴政策预期利好和出口需求乐 观等支撑，关注3月份相关政策落地情况。国内方面，市场对大豆通关时 长存在顾虑，同时担忧储备大豆拍卖，以及受到棕榈油连续下跌拖累，走 势有所转弱。菜油：加拿大菜籽期货受到原油及美豆油支撑，价格发弹至 相对高位后吸引技术性投机买盘走势偏强。国内方面，菜籽采购增加，澳 洲菜籽逐步通关进入压榨，现货库存偏低但是远期供应转宽松，预计价格 跟随油脂趋势震荡为主。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-27 橡胶、棉花涨势放缓 油脂：油脂震荡回落 蛋白粕：市场追涨情绪不高，盘面上涨动力减弱 玉米：玉米高位盘整 生猪：供需宽松，猪价低位震荡 天然橡胶：盘面偏多情绪维持 合成橡胶：库存数据高企，盘面走弱 棉花：冲高回落，可阶段性止盈 白糖：印度增产预期下调，糖价中长期震荡偏弱 纸浆：现货仍未恢复正常， ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 莱粕 | なな☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | な☆☆ | | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ななな | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约延续上涨势头。部分产区优质大豆价格上涨，受到节后补库提振。不过普通大豆表现不如优 质大豆,需求偏疲软。由于市场对南美豆海关放行时间的担忧,进口大豆方面出现了上涨,对国产大豆也带来 溢出效应。短期关注大豆政策和现货表现。 【大豆&豆粕&菜粕】 北港平仓价较昨日上涨，锦州港报2360元/吨，皱鱼圈港报2365元/吨，较年前上涨15-20元/吨，零星东北收购 ...

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周三，豆油主力05合约午后收于8228（日变动88或1.08% ）。豆油现货价格普遍较节前上涨100元/吨左右。美伊对抗持续， 国际原油价格运行坚挺。美国生物柴油政策预期向好，市场看多情 绪浓厚，CBOT豆油上探60美分/磅关键位置，国际市场利好持续。 我国港口大豆库存同比下滑，三大油脂整体库存高位小幅回落且低 于去同期水平，供需基本面也在逐步改善。预期向好，豆油上涨驱 动持续，主力合约多单考虑继续持有。豆油主力05合约支撑位关注 8000-8100元/吨，压力位关注8560-8600元/吨； 菜油：周三菜油期货先跌后涨，主力2605合约收涨0.38%于9244 。年后油厂开机增多，菜油供应或增加，而下游消费正值季节性淡 季，市场需求整体偏弱。但港口澳籽总量有限，加菜籽连续出现3- 5月船期买船，但到港情况仍将取决于中加贸易关系的实际落地情 况。特朗普此前关税行为被美国法院判定为违法，但随后其再度加 征新一轮关税，海外关税博弈加剧。受宏观及美生柴需求预期带动 ，菜油价格预计跟随油脂板块摆动，自身单边驱动方向仍不明确。 菜油 ...

全球植物油供应充足。2025/2026年度全球植物油产量将达到2.32亿吨，略高于消费量，呈现小幅过剩态势。 分类别来看，棕榈油供需基本平衡。印尼和马来西亚的产能扩张持续推进，2026年产量有望达到7800万吨； 豆油方面，美国、巴西大豆产量创新高，豆油供应保持充足，预计达到6200万吨；菜油方面，加拿大、欧盟 菜籽油产量稳定增长，全球供应将超过3100万吨。 图为全球植物油供需情况 植物油板块资金以持续性流入为主。美国大豆出口需求强劲，中国等主要买家采购积极性提升，生物柴油政 策持续发酵，豆油工业需求预期上升。根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的最新报告（截至2026年2月 10日当周），投机基金持有大豆净多单76427份，较前一周大幅增持79851份，实现从净空到净多的彻底反 转，这是投机基金连续第二周增持芝加哥大豆类净多单，显示市场情绪正在快速转向乐观。持仓变动对应的 资金量巨大，表明机构投资者对美豆油未来价格走势的信心显著增强。 春节长假期间，美伊谈判进展波折，国际原油期价持续上涨。同时，美国生柴配额标准将在3月初敲定，推动 美豆油期价攀升至60美分/磅，马来西亚棕榈油价格跟随美豆油和国际原油走强 ...