2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：等待利空出尽，关注宏观情绪影响 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | 2 | | 豆粕：震荡，等待下周USDA报告 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理为主 | 7 | | 棉花：跟随整体市场情绪波动20260109 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：远月情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：需求存负反馈，供应进入预增量阶段 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 09 日 棕榈油：等待利空出尽，关注宏观情绪影响 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 0.58% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Market sentiment has ebbed, and commodities with large previous gains face profit - taking pressure. Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors. Attention should be paid to policy, weather, export, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Bean No.1 - Bean No.1 futures main contract shows an adjustment trend with a reduction in positions. The domestic soybean spot price remains strong. The South American new - season soybean has a high - yield expectation, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA January report predicts the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks and inventory as of December 1, 2025. Reuters predicts a slight increase in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production. South American weather is favorable, and the probability of ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 68%. Dalian soybean meal rebounds with US soybeans. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Market sentiment has ebbed, and soybean oil and palm oil show a trend of rising and then falling. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes, and the Malaysian palm oil market may continue to accumulate inventory. The supply - side risk of overseas soybeans is low, and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues, with a weak supply - demand situation [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures decline significantly today. The market has high expectations for the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. If Canada changes its tariff policies on Chinese products, the export of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil to China may resume. The domestic rapeseed - related futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to increase positions and rise. Some Northeast deep - processing enterprises slightly raise the purchase price. The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The spot price of some ports is stable or slightly weak. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning continues to decrease. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn spot has a high transaction rate and premium. The short - term trend is wide - range volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to fluctuate. Different data sources show different trends in the number of sows and newborn piglets. The fat - to - lean price difference is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. There is a large supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the upward rebound space of the futures is limited. In the long - term, the pig price is likely to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures contract strengthens again, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern compared with yesterday. The spot price is stable or slightly strong. The monthly year - on - year decline in chick replenishment from September to December exceeds 10%, and the egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to go long on the first - half - year 2026 futures contracts at low prices. The second - half - year contracts may have different trends [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by mixed fundamentals, the futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, with short - term support above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the moving - average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can firmly stand above 4,000 ringgit [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to related varieties. Although China's purchase of US soybeans boosts CBOT soybean prices, the abundant global soybean supply still weighs on it. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports are positive, but the CBOT soybean price may still correct, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With limited domestic available spot, the market is watching whether COFCO will start production on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the short - term downside is limited, and the overall trend is wide - range volatile adjustment [1]. - **Jujube**: The spot market price is weakly stable, with increased customer inquiries but no significant improvement in transactions. Affected by the warming commodity market sentiment, the futures price rebounds, and the basis narrows. The new - season warehouse receipt generation accelerates. Short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the futures price will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but selling pressure expectations and policy - supplemented supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar - cane crushing is nearing the end, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, while Thailand's is still down. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking demand is strong, but the peak - season supply and cautious market sentiment limit the upside, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. - **Apple**: With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the market is more active, with good - quality apples in short supply and high prices. However, the high price may suppress consumption, and other fruits compete with apples. The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are under pressure from falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US, the cotton - growing area is experiencing rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The domestic cotton price is supported by strong expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream replenishment, but is restricted by low foreign cotton costs and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a bullish trend, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. - **Egg**: Based on previous chick - sales data, the laying - hen inventory may decrease in January, alleviating supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the market resists high - priced goods. The current market circulation is smooth, and inventories are low. With the approaching traditional consumption peak, the market sentiment is bullish, but the oversupply situation may limit the upside, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. - **Pig**: The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. Although the northern pig supply has decreased, high prices have dampened slaughterhouse procurement enthusiasm, and the southern demand has also weakened. Some second - fattening operations are still taking place, but overall enthusiasm is low. The market expects high consumption before the Spring Festival, but the supply in January is abundant, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment, with limited upside potential [19]. - **Meal**: The external market is under pressure from the global supply - demand situation, and the market awaits the USDA supply - demand report. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and meals is currently abundant, but the expected future shortage supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The first - quarter soybean arrival is expected to be low, but there is uncertainty in auctions and arrivals. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the short - term market sentiment is positive, with the futures price fluctuating strongly [21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - **Palm Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of P2605 was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan or 0.73% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of Y2605 was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of OI2605 was 9,606 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - **Jujube**: The futures prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with the 2605 contract rising 175 yuan or 1.95% to 9,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2603 was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.17%, and the basis was 72 yuan, down 31 yuan or 30.10% [5]. - **Sugar**: The futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.42% [8]. - **Apple**: The futures price of the apple 2605 contract was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.32% [10]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 1.21% [16]. - **Egg**: The futures price of the egg 03 contract was 3,011 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan or 0.37% [18]. - **Pig**: The futures price of the pig 2605 contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [19]. - **Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal M2605 was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.26%, and the futures price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.21% [21]. - **Spreads**: - **Three - oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread of the three - oil was 150 yuan, up 12 yuan or 8.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 110 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 6.78% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 14 yuan, down 38 yuan or - 73.08% [1]. - **Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: The spot spread was - 110 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 2.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Oil Spread**: The spot spread was 1,440 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 6.65% [1]. - **Jujube 5 - 7 Spread**: It was - 45 yuan, up 25 yuan or 35.71% [2]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 180 yuan, up 40 yuan or 18.18% [2]. - **Corn 3 - 7 Spread**: It was - 36 yuan, up 10 yuan or 21.74% [5]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 12 yuan, up 4 yuan or 25.00% [8]. - **Apple 5 - 10 Spread**: It was 1,109 yuan, up 26 yuan or 2.40% [10]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 2.70% [16]. - **Egg 3 - 4 Spread**: It was - 253 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 1.20% [18]. - **Pig 3 - 5 Spread**: It was - 475 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 6.74% [19]. - **Soybean Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 77 yuan, up 18 yuan or 18.95% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 46 yuan, up 1 yuan or 2.13% [21]. 3.2. Inventory and Supply - demand - **Inventory**: - **Palm Oil**: The warehouse receipt on January 7 was 1,248, up 688 or 122.86% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 28,264 (unchanged) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 2,130, down 1,167 [1]. - **Jujube**: The warehouse receipt was 2,263, up 158 or 7.51%, and the effective forecast was 745, down 107 or - 12.56% [2]. - **Corn**: The warehouse receipt was 34,655, up 3,000 or 9.48% [5]. - **Sugar**: The warehouse receipt was unchanged at 1000, and the effective forecast was 4,563 (unchanged) [8]. - **Apple**: The national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 tons, down 10.48 tons or - 1.41% [10]. - **Cotton**: The commercial inventory was 534.90 tons, up 66.54 tons or 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 tons, up 4.43 tons or 4.7% [16]. - **Meal**: The soybean meal warehouse receipt was 25,480, up 700 or 2.8% [21]. - **Supply - demand**: - **Sugar**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53% year - on - year. In Guangxi, the cumulative production decreased by 73.87% year - on - year, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% year - on - year [8]. - **Cotton**: The import volume increased by 33.3% month - on - month, and the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [16]. - **Pig**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.63% day - on - day, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits improved [19].

律回岁晚冰霜少，春到人间草木知 — 2026 年豆粕年报 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员: 朱书颖 从业资格号：F03120547 投资咨询号：Z0022992 初审：张莎 从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审：赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 摘要： 1.供应宽松格局持续，产量增幅止步，未来或将进入去库周期。2025/26 年度全球大豆产量仍 保持高位，相较于 2024/25 年减少 461 万吨，减幅 1.07%，趋势止增下降。这主要是由全球第 一和第三大主产国——美国与阿根廷的产量下调所驱动，同时第一大主产国巴西的增速也明显 放缓。全球大豆期末库存略有下降，25/26 年度库存量 1.22 亿吨，相较去年减少 0.71%。库销 比为 20.08%，相较于去年略有下降。 2.贸易格局改变，生柴政策为关键需求变量。2025/26 年度全球大豆消费途径中，出口消费保 持稳定，压榨消费增速放缓。因中美贸易摩擦影响，美豆出口市场被南美挤占，巴西出口强劲， 阿根廷开辟豆粕对华出口市场，并且通过降低税率增强了 ...

| を业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 王涛庭 Z0019938 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月6日 | | | 原田 | | 1月5日 1月4日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 江苏一级 8410 8410 0 0.00% | 现价 | | Y2605 7856 7862 -୧ -0.08% | 期价 | | Y2605 554 548 б 1.09% | 基差 | | 江苏5月 05 + 520 05 +520 0 - | 现货墓差报价 | | 28264 28264 0 0.00% | 仓单 | | | 棕櫚油 | | 1月5日 1月4日 张庆 张跌幅 | | | 广东24度 8490 8590 -100 -1.16% | 现价 | | 8488 P2605 8584 -de -1.12% | 期价 | | P2605 2 6 -4 -66.67% | 星差 | | 0 - 广东5月 05 + 120 05 + 120 | 现货墓差报价 | | 广州港5月 8904.7 9099.8 -195.1 -2.14% | 盘面进口成本 | | 广州港5月 - ...

农产品：回顾与展望 20251230 摘要 2025 年玉米市场受政策性收储提振，但小麦替代和丰产预期导致价格 下跌。华北玉米因降雨受损，饲料企业转向东北优质玉米，短期内低库 存和春节备货需求或将推高价格。政策限制进口，预计 2026 年玉米价 格易涨难跌。 2025 年种植收益为近年来最佳，地租成本下降且粮价同比上涨。转基 因玉米种植面积大幅增加，预计 2026 年种植积极性将提高，但需关注 亲本问题对单产的影响。 2025 年国产豆类丰产但区域差异大，华北减产质量下降，黑龙江增产。 高蛋白豆比例下降，转基因油豆比例增加，结构性问题突出，预计未来 政策可能收储以稳定价格。 2025 年 10 月后棉花市场表现突出，新疆棉花减产预期和低库存推动价 格上涨。关注 2026 年新疆棉花实际减产情况及政策对进口的控制，减 产幅度超 5%将显著影响市场。 2025 年白糖价格下跌，受巴西增产和国内新榨季开榨影响，供给充足。 国内产量下降需通过进口弥补，进口成本锁定在 5,100 元/吨左右，预计 价格最高可能达到 5,500 元/吨。 Q&A 2025 年玉米市场的表现如何？未来趋势如何？ 2025 年玉米市场表现相 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期周三 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 30 日，马盘棕榈油走强提振，连盘棕榈油走强，带动整体植物油价格走升。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7878 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.77%，日减仓 | | | | | 16826 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7756 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.52%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1059 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8658 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.72%，日减 | | | | | 仓 7197 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 ...

2、美国生物柴油政策依然不明朗，EPA原定11月公布的最终确定美国生物燃料义务量目前延期到26年一 季度，且分配比例不确定，后市政策提振作用存疑。 南华期货油脂产业周报 ——节前油脂宽幅震荡运行，等待产地驱动 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国内油脂市场受制于高供应压力和疲弱需求，缺乏利好，核心驱动依然在产地外盘市场，当前油脂的核 心矛盾主要依然为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力和需求增长的博弈。马来方面库存处于六年半高位，虽然年底进入减产季有望改 善供应压力，但出口提振不足或拖慢去库脚步；印尼B50计划预计26年后半年开始执行，基本符合市场预 期，支撑棕榈油长期需求但短期利好不足，产地整体来看报价上行动力有限。 中国三大油脂周度合计库存季节性 source： 南华研究 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 100 150 200 中国三 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Malay high-frequency data has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and then continue to decline, awaiting the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders taking delivery and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has risen. Short-term observation is recommended, and it is not advisable to chase the upward trend. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Spot Price - 24-degree palm oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8650, 8590, and 8490 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to December 26, 2025. The palm oil main contract spot basis in South China for Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu was 5000, 4000, and 3000 (or 2000) respectively [1] - First-grade soybean oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8250, 8390, and 8400 respectively, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - Fourth-grade rapeseed oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9880, 9930, and 10130 respectively, with an increase of 100 compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil main contract spot basis in North China for Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu was 2000, 1500, and 1000 respectively [1] Futures Data - The price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was -694 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 38 compared to December 26, 2025. The price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1222 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 12 compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 260 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil warehouse receipts were 28264 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3456 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] Industry News - On December 19, the Indonesian energy minister said that the country had launched a road test for B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy for B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - MPOC predicts that the crude palm oil price will fluctuate between 3800 and 4100 ringgit per ton in January next year, supported by seasonal low production and increased demand before the Lunar New Year and Ramadan [2] - According to MPOA, Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 20 increased by 2.4% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture announced that a private exporter reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - According to the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October, reaching 632,341 tons. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% compared to the previous month, reaching 370,661 tons. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% compared to the previous month, reaching 142,953 tons, the lowest in two years. India also imported 5,000 tons of rapeseed oil from the UAE. The decrease in soybean and sunflower oil imports led to a 13.3% decrease in India's total edible oil imports in November compared to the previous month, reaching a seven - month low of 1.15 million tons. In November, India imported a record - high 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China due to discounts offered by Chinese crushers due to oversupply [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期周二 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 29 日，元旦假期在即，市场交投谨慎，植物油板块承压，棕榈油技术位面临 较大压力，豆油和菜籽油呈现弱势振荡。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7818 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.23%，日增仓 | | | | | 3768 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7716 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.31%，日增 | | | | | 仓 646 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8512 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.65%，日减 | | | | | 仓 26557 ...