投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 25 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价在 1100 美分震荡，中国采购增量不及预期抵消南美干旱利多。国内油厂开机率 维持 65%高位，豆粕库存高企倒逼贸易商滚动抛货，现货报价承压；产业链矛盾固化：饲料厂仅维持 8 天刚性库存，生猪亏损抑制补库意愿，现货基差持续为负反映弱现实未改。关注南美 12 月降水兑 现度及油厂开机节奏调整。短期豆粕期价 3000 元/吨已成为关键的心理和技术支撑位，期价震荡偏 弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日 ...

【油脂周报20251121】马棕高频数据与美生柴共振，施压油脂盘 TET 日期:2025-11-24 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【油脂周报20251121】马棕高频数据与美生柴共振，施压油脂盘面 | * 观点: 棕榈油 下跌空间有限，在[8300]价位存在支撑 | | * 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | * 合约: p2601 | | | | 장 | 逻辑： | 전 逻辑 | | 同期较低水平，叠加印尼生物柴油目标仍有提升预期，棕榈油中期略 | | 사람들 | | 局偏强。国内库存累至历年中性偏高位置，且近月买船有所恢复，但 | | 十美豆偏 | | 消费维持清淡格局，供需相对贲松。 | | 美贸易关 | | 整体来看,近期贸易及生柴消息抗动,油脂波动剧烈。中长期来看, | | 际关于 | | 东南亚棕榈油偏紧格局持续，叠加生柴政策支撑油脂重心，棕榈油偏 | | 整体天 | | 强看待为主。后续关注MPOB及GAPKI报告，国内进口及库存情况。 | | 向以可信 | | | | 政策、国 | | 产业链操作建议 | 场外报价 | | | | | 产中 | | 现货的口 | 参与用 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：一方面，成本支撑减弱是主要压力，美豆出口需求不及预期、以及美国生物柴油政策前景 不明而走低，拖累美豆期价。现货市场同样疲软，尽管远期基差成交稍有放量，但贸易商持续亏损， 下游养殖端也多以刚需补货为主，难以有效提振市场。当前市场面临供给宽松和需求不振的双重压 力。短期豆粕期价明显转弱，3000 元/吨已成为关键的心理和技术支撑位，如果有效跌破，下方空间 将进一步释放。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：核心压力源 ...

| VY V SDIC FUIURES | | 2025年11月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 標 潟 海 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | 【豆一】 豆一期货主力价格从高位快速回落并伴随减仓。经过阶段性上涨,豆一价格获利了结并进入调整状态。本周中 储粮竞价拍卖大豆，全部成交。成交均价3900元/吨。随着国产大豆价格回落，国产大豆和进口大豆价差缩下 跌、进口大豆 ...

消息面 监测显示，11月19日，12、1月船期24度棕榈油进口CNF报价1060美元/吨、1080美元/吨，周环比上涨 10~22美元/吨。 东海期货： 马来西亚衍生品交易所（BMD）毛棕榈油期货继续上涨，延续了上周五以来的强势，主要受到豆油走 强的提振。不过需求担忧以及令吉汇率走强，令棕榈油脱离盘中高点。国内棕榈油累库增加，现货价格 承压，短期棕榈油维持宽幅震荡。 11月19日：全国港口24度棕榈油成交量800吨，环比上个交易日减少33.33%。 机构观点 国投安信期货： 从美国柴油市场看，美国柴油产量低于平均水平，柴油出口强劲，国内需求也好于平均水平，预计美国 柴油中期会表现为供需偏紧的格局，预计美国柴油市场的强劲对植物油有边际溢出效应。近期国际豆油 走强,国际市场上豆棕价差也在走强，棕榈油也开始主动跟随。棕榈油马来西亚的短期高频数据显示供 需面偏弱。大豆国内近端压榨利润仍然偏差，国内表现出豆油强于豆粕。随着市场开始博弈美国生物柴 油政策存在变化，从美国产品和原料优先转为仍可以延续政策寻求进口，预计棕榈油边际上有所改善， 预计棕榈油单边走势阶段性见底的概率偏大。持续关注美国生物柴油政策最终落地。 据外媒报 ...

国内棕榈油从近期的横盘区间跳升，表现转强，豆棕价差从高位回调，显示出棕油开始强于豆油。美豆油表现偏强，一方面市 场对美国生物柴油政策预期偏乐观，一方面美国柴油市场表现偏强、美国柴油产量低于平均水平，柴油出口强劲。国内需求也 好于平均水平，预计美国柴油中期会表现为供需偏紧的格局，预计美国柴油市场的强劲对植物油有边际溢出效应。随着豆油的 走强,国际市场上豆棕价差也在走强,棕榈油也开始主动跟随。棕榈油马来西亚的短期高频数据显示供需面偏弱。大豆国内近 端压榨利润仍然偏差，国内表现出豆油强于豆粕。由于豆油表现偏强，我们预计棕榈油会被带动，基于这个国素，预计棕榈油 单边走势阶段性见底的概率偏大。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ★☆☆ | | | 豆粕 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱油 | ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

南华期货油脂产业周报 ——驱动未明，等待远月利多兑现 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月18日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期油脂市场交易的重点来自于全球油脂的供需平衡问题，核心驱动主要在外盘市场，当前油脂的核心 矛盾主要为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力能否被增长的需求所消化。10月MPOB报告中马来产量增幅超11%，库存增幅超 4%，出口大幅提振超18%，需求支撑下马棕利空出尽，随着棕榈油正式进入减产季，进入去库后将提升棕榈 油性价比。而印尼端B50计划不确定性仍存，需进一步政策指引；但印尼种植园所有权转移下，产量也有受限 预期，加上年底B40计划支撑，出口潜力依然受限。 2、美国生物柴油政策依然不明朗，EPA原定11月公布的最终确定美国生物燃料义务量目前延期，中美贸易和 谈进度目前较乐观提振美豆，支撑豆油相对偏强，但美豆恢复购买后国内豆油供应压力或增加，成本支撑逻 辑走完后或转化为供应压力现实，且美豆出口好转，美国政府对生物燃料政策的力度有减弱可能，等待最 ...

【国富豆系研究周报】USDA下调美豆出口预估，关注出口需求变化 20251117 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月17日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 国量的货 目录 | r 行情回顾 . | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粕 | | 3. 豆油 5 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 巴西大豆产区天气 7 | | 2. 阿根廷大豆产区天气 | | 国际供需 . in | | 1. 美国大豆 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 19 | | 国内供需 四、 | | 1. 豆油供需 | | 2. 豆粕供需 26 | | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 五、 | | 1. 基差、月差、品种差情况 30 | | 2. FOB 报价 | | 3. CFTC 持仓情况 | 2 公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. 大豆 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至11月14日收盘,CBOT 大豆 01 合约收于 1122.50 美 分/蒲式耳,较前一周上涨0.47%。本周CBOT 大豆价格上涨,主要因市场 预期中美贸易关系或改善以及市场担忧巴西南部不利天气或影响部分 ...

Report Title - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: MPOB Malaysia Palm Oil Continued to Build Inventory in October, Focus on High-Frequency Data from Producing Areas 20251117" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil supply and demand both increased in October, with the ending inventory reaching 2464000 tons, and the current inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to high-frequency data from palm oil producing areas, changes in import demand from major consuming areas such as India, and changes in biodiesel policies of relevant countries [7]. - The price of BMD Malaysia palm oil rose this week, mainly driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance of Malaysia palm oil in the first 10 days of November limited the increase in the futures price [7]. - The price of DCE palm oil fluctuated slightly lower this week, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory during the week, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysia Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the BMD Malaysia palm oil 01 contract closed at 4125 ringgit/ton, up 0.36% from last week. The price increase was driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance in the first 10 days of November limited the increase [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, higher than the 5-year average. The SPPOMA estimated that the production in the first 10 days of November decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, far exceeding market expectations. However, high-frequency data from three major institutions showed that the exports in the first 10 days of November were expected to decrease by 9.5% - 49.53% month-on-month [7]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8644 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from last week. The price fluctuated slightly lower, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. - This week, the foreign quotation decreased, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed, and the inversion range of the futures soybean-palm oil price spread continued to repair [12]. 2. Producing Area Weather 2.1 Malaysia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of southern Peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sarawak, and southwestern Sabah where precipitation was 15 - 25mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 75mm [14]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and northern Sabah where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [16]. 2.2 Indonesia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of northern and southern Sumatra where precipitation was 15 - 100mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm. In Kalimantan, except for a small part of western and northern areas where precipitation was 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [19]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of central and western Sumatra where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB October Report - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in October increased by 4.44% month-on-month to 2464000 tons, higher than the same period last year and the 5-year average [23]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, and imports decreased by 53.73% month-on-month to 36000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysia Palm Oil November Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 448328 tons, a 9.5% decrease from the same period last month; ITS data showed that exports were 459320 tons, a 12.28% decrease; SGS data showed that exports were expected to be 190533 tons, a 49.53% decrease [30]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed that from November 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, and production decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [34]. 3.3 Other Important News - India's palm oil imports in October were 602381 tons, lower than 833017 tons in September. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [36]. - Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of a biodiesel blend fuel (B50) containing 50% palm oil. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 blend fuel in the second half of next year [36]. - Indonesia will start the B50 biodiesel road test in early December, and the government is considering whether to implement the B50 mandatory standard only in specific fields. The government plans to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, an increase from this year's 40% blending ratio [38]. - Indonesia's palm oil production from January - September this year was more than 43 million tons, a 11% year-on-year increase; exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year-on-year increase [38]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [38]. - CIMB Securities expects that due to a 10% month-on-month decrease in exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month-on-month to 2.57 million tons in November; production is expected to decrease by 8.0% month-on-month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [38]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed [39]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions decreased. As of the week of November 14, the total weekly palm oil transactions (spot transactions + basis transactions) were 3403 tons, a decrease of 2597 tons from last week, a decline of 43% [42]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - Palm oil inventory increased. As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from last week and a 10.86% increase from 538800 tons in the same period last year [44][45]. 5. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Price Spreads 5.1 Basis, Month Spread, and Variety Spread - **Palm Oil Basis and Month Spread**: Relevant data charts of palm oil basis and month spread in different regions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [48][51][52]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: Relevant data charts of international and domestic soybean-palm oil, rapeseed-palm oil, sunflower-palm oil price spreads, and POGO spreads are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [54][56][57]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - Relevant data charts of DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and 01 contract positions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [59]. 5.3 FOB Quotes - Relevant data charts of Malaysia and Indonesia's 24-degree palm oil FOB quotes are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [62]