截至2025年9月26日当周，棕榈油期货主力合约收于9278元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持7150 手。 本周（9月22日-9月26日）市场上看，棕榈油期货周内开盘报9236元/吨，最高触及9278元/吨，最低下探 至9224元/吨，周度涨跌幅达0.13%。 消息面回顾： 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚9月1-25日棕榈油出口量为795947吨，较上月同期出 口的933437吨减少14.73%。 据外媒报道，行业分析师Thomas Mielke表示，全球棕榈油和豆油价格预计将在2026年1月至6月期间上 涨100至150美元/吨，主要原因是供应趋紧。 机构观点汇总： 中州期货：油世界调低25/26年度全球棕榈油增量至100-120万吨，其中印尼增量为60-80万吨，马来减产 10-20万吨，若印尼推行B45，其需求增量将大于供应增量，再度挤占出口。欧盟第二次推迟反毁林法实 施，预计2026年印尼对欧盟的棕榈油出口将会增加。印尼6月供需平衡符合预期。SPPOMA数据显示， 马棕已经入减产季节。马来高频出口数据转为利多。马来上调10月毛棕榈油参考价4268.68林吉特。印 度植物油库存仍处 ...

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is currently dominated by bullish narratives, driven by Indonesia's increased storage capacity, long-term production bottlenecks, and strong demand from India, making it difficult to challenge the underlying positive fundamentals [3][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is facing long-term constraints, while its storage capacity has improved, leading to a seasonal peak in inventories [3][18]. - India's palm oil imports are projected to reach a new high of 18 million tons in the next planting season, indicating a significant increase in demand [11][12]. - The comparison between China's weak consumption signals and the recovery of import profits suggests that China's demand is unlikely to provide effective feedback to the market [8][19]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Malaysia's seasonal accumulation trend and unsubstantiated domestic demand could create potential downward pressure on prices, with domestic demand exceeding 450,000 tons for three months this year [4][17]. - The palm oil market is experiencing a shift in trading dynamics, with speculative attributes gaining more influence over industry fundamentals [9][19]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy changes and the potential reallocation of exemptions could impact the demand for palm oil, particularly in relation to North American soybean oil prices [5][6][7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The palm oil price is expected to find new support levels around 3,800 ringgit or 8,000 yuan in the long term, influenced by seasonal production increases and domestic demand fluctuations [4][18]. - The market is currently witnessing a divergence between palm oil pricing and commodity price indices, indicating a potential misalignment in market expectations [9][19]. - The palm oil market's reliance on speculative sentiment may lead to short-term price corrections, while long-term demand from India and Southeast Asia remains robust [19].

【四季度国际棕榈油价格或高位震荡，基本面预期偏强】8月28日消息，四季度马来西亚棕榈油产量会 随季节性规律回落，且该国拟年底前启动可持续航空燃料生产，国内消费预期增加，致使国际棕榈油供 应预计下降。 当前印度植物油库存仍偏低，排灯节前补库需求高，这提振了产区棕榈油出口，对国际 棕榈油价格形成支撑。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is drawing attention, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - Investor sentiment is cautious, leading to mixed performance in the Asia-Pacific markets, with Southeast Asian stock markets mostly declining [1] - The Thai SET index fell by 0.48% to 1253.39 points, while the Vietnamese Ho Chi Minh index rose by 1.04% to 1647.03 points [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis of Thailand - Thailand's economy grew by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, slightly above market expectations but lower than the previous quarter's 3.2% [2] - The economic growth rate decreased from 0.7% in Q1 to 0.6% in Q2, with exports being the main driver, although challenges from U.S. tariff policies and declining tourism are expected to hinder sustainability [2][4] - Capital Economics forecasts Thailand's GDP growth at 2.7% for 2025, only slightly above 2024's 2.5% [3] Group 3: Regional Economic Performance - Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q2 2023 [4] - Singapore's GDP grew by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter and 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, driven by pre-tariff export activities [5] Group 4: Stock Market Trends in Southeast Asia - Malaysia's stock market has faced continuous net selling for 20 days, with global funds selling $12.9 million worth of Malaysian stocks on August 21 [6] - Foreign investors' holdings in Thai stocks decreased by 24% in the first half of 2025 compared to the end of 2024, with the SET index down by 10.49% as of August 22 [7] - The decline in foreign investment in Thailand is attributed to political uncertainties and a lack of appeal in traditional business sectors compared to growing tech investments [7] Group 5: Monetary Policy Developments - Indonesia's central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5%, marking the fourth cut this year [8] - Following the rate cut, the Indonesian stock market reacted positively, with the benchmark index rising over 1% [8] - Analysts remain optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth potential, with Citibank projecting a 5.4% growth target for 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [3] Core Insights - Palm oil is the largest vegetable oil in terms of production, consumption, and international trade, accounting for over 30% of total vegetable oil production. The main production countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, which together account for 87% of global palm oil production. Global palm oil consumption is expected to reach 77.22 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [5][29][35] Market Background - Palm oil production is primarily concentrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with Indonesia producing 46 million tons (59% of global production), Malaysia 18.7 million tons (24%), and Thailand 3.33 million tons (4%) in 2024. The total global palm oil production is projected to be 78.25 million tons [29][35] - Global palm oil consumption is concentrated in Asia and Europe, with Indonesia consuming 23.28 million tons (30%), India 8.8 million tons (11%), China 4.6 million tons (6%), and the EU 3.85 million tons (5%) in 2024 [35][39] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short-term supply is recovering, with Malaysia's palm oil production increasing by 12% year-on-year in April. However, long-term production growth potential is limited due to declining planting areas and aging oil palm trees in Malaysia. Indonesia's biodiesel policy is expected to drive consumption growth [6][57][66] - The demand for palm oil is supported by the biodiesel market, particularly in Indonesia, where domestic consumption has risen significantly due to biodiesel policies. The B40 policy is expected to add 2-3 million tons of palm oil consumption annually [66]