Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have shown a slight increase in price, with a closing price of 9278 yuan/ton as of September 26, 2025, despite a reduction in open interest [1] Market Overview - The palm oil futures market opened at 9236 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 9278 yuan/ton and a low of 9224 yuan/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 0.13% [1] - Data from SPPOMA indicates a decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield by 3.19% and a production drop of 4.14% for the period of September 1-25, 2025 [2] - SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil export volume for the same period is estimated at 795,947 tons, a decrease of 14.73% compared to the previous month [2] Institutional Insights - Zhongzhou Futures has adjusted the global palm oil production increase for 2025/26 to 1-1.2 million tons, with Indonesia contributing 600,000-800,000 tons and Malaysia facing a reduction of 100,000-200,000 tons [3] - The EU has postponed the implementation of the anti-deforestation law, which is expected to increase Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU by 2026 [3] - Domestic market trends show a rise in canola oil prices due to tight supply, which has also positively influenced palm oil prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is currently dominated by bullish narratives, driven by Indonesia's increased storage capacity, long-term production bottlenecks, and strong demand from India, making it difficult to challenge the underlying positive fundamentals [3][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is facing long-term constraints, while its storage capacity has improved, leading to a seasonal peak in inventories [3][18]. - India's palm oil imports are projected to reach a new high of 18 million tons in the next planting season, indicating a significant increase in demand [11][12]. - The comparison between China's weak consumption signals and the recovery of import profits suggests that China's demand is unlikely to provide effective feedback to the market [8][19]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Malaysia's seasonal accumulation trend and unsubstantiated domestic demand could create potential downward pressure on prices, with domestic demand exceeding 450,000 tons for three months this year [4][17]. - The palm oil market is experiencing a shift in trading dynamics, with speculative attributes gaining more influence over industry fundamentals [9][19]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy changes and the potential reallocation of exemptions could impact the demand for palm oil, particularly in relation to North American soybean oil prices [5][6][7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The palm oil price is expected to find new support levels around 3,800 ringgit or 8,000 yuan in the long term, influenced by seasonal production increases and domestic demand fluctuations [4][18]. - The market is currently witnessing a divergence between palm oil pricing and commodity price indices, indicating a potential misalignment in market expectations [9][19]. - The palm oil market's reliance on speculative sentiment may lead to short-term price corrections, while long-term demand from India and Southeast Asia remains robust [19].

Core Viewpoint - The international palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the fourth quarter due to seasonal production declines in Malaysia and increased domestic consumption, alongside low inventory levels in India driving demand for imports [1] Group 1: Supply and Production - Malaysia's palm oil production is anticipated to decrease in the fourth quarter following seasonal trends [1] - The country plans to initiate sustainable aviation fuel production by the end of the year, which may impact palm oil supply dynamics [1] Group 2: Demand and Consumption - Domestic consumption of palm oil in Malaysia is expected to rise, contributing to a tighter supply outlook [1] - India's low vegetable oil inventory levels are leading to heightened demand for palm oil ahead of the Diwali festival, supporting export activities from producing regions [1] Group 3: Price Implications - The combination of reduced supply from Malaysia and increased demand from India is likely to provide support for international palm oil prices [1]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is drawing attention, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - Investor sentiment is cautious, leading to mixed performance in the Asia-Pacific markets, with Southeast Asian stock markets mostly declining [1] - The Thai SET index fell by 0.48% to 1253.39 points, while the Vietnamese Ho Chi Minh index rose by 1.04% to 1647.03 points [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis of Thailand - Thailand's economy grew by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, slightly above market expectations but lower than the previous quarter's 3.2% [2] - The economic growth rate decreased from 0.7% in Q1 to 0.6% in Q2, with exports being the main driver, although challenges from U.S. tariff policies and declining tourism are expected to hinder sustainability [2][4] - Capital Economics forecasts Thailand's GDP growth at 2.7% for 2025, only slightly above 2024's 2.5% [3] Group 3: Regional Economic Performance - Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q2 2023 [4] - Singapore's GDP grew by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter and 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, driven by pre-tariff export activities [5] Group 4: Stock Market Trends in Southeast Asia - Malaysia's stock market has faced continuous net selling for 20 days, with global funds selling $12.9 million worth of Malaysian stocks on August 21 [6] - Foreign investors' holdings in Thai stocks decreased by 24% in the first half of 2025 compared to the end of 2024, with the SET index down by 10.49% as of August 22 [7] - The decline in foreign investment in Thailand is attributed to political uncertainties and a lack of appeal in traditional business sectors compared to growing tech investments [7] Group 5: Monetary Policy Developments - Indonesia's central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5%, marking the fourth cut this year [8] - Following the rate cut, the Indonesian stock market reacted positively, with the benchmark index rising over 1% [8] - Analysts remain optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth potential, with Citibank projecting a 5.4% growth target for 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [3] Core Insights - Palm oil is the largest vegetable oil in terms of production, consumption, and international trade, accounting for over 30% of total vegetable oil production. The main production countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, which together account for 87% of global palm oil production. Global palm oil consumption is expected to reach 77.22 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [5][29][35] Market Background - Palm oil production is primarily concentrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with Indonesia producing 46 million tons (59% of global production), Malaysia 18.7 million tons (24%), and Thailand 3.33 million tons (4%) in 2024. The total global palm oil production is projected to be 78.25 million tons [29][35] - Global palm oil consumption is concentrated in Asia and Europe, with Indonesia consuming 23.28 million tons (30%), India 8.8 million tons (11%), China 4.6 million tons (6%), and the EU 3.85 million tons (5%) in 2024 [35][39] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short-term supply is recovering, with Malaysia's palm oil production increasing by 12% year-on-year in April. However, long-term production growth potential is limited due to declining planting areas and aging oil palm trees in Malaysia. Indonesia's biodiesel policy is expected to drive consumption growth [6][57][66] - The demand for palm oil is supported by the biodiesel market, particularly in Indonesia, where domestic consumption has risen significantly due to biodiesel policies. The B40 policy is expected to add 2-3 million tons of palm oil consumption annually [66]