Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is currently dominated by bullish narratives, driven by Indonesia's increased storage capacity, long-term production bottlenecks, and strong demand from India, making it difficult to challenge the underlying positive fundamentals [3][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is facing long-term constraints, while its storage capacity has improved, leading to a seasonal peak in inventories [3][18]. - India's palm oil imports are projected to reach a new high of 18 million tons in the next planting season, indicating a significant increase in demand [11][12]. - The comparison between China's weak consumption signals and the recovery of import profits suggests that China's demand is unlikely to provide effective feedback to the market [8][19]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Malaysia's seasonal accumulation trend and unsubstantiated domestic demand could create potential downward pressure on prices, with domestic demand exceeding 450,000 tons for three months this year [4][17]. - The palm oil market is experiencing a shift in trading dynamics, with speculative attributes gaining more influence over industry fundamentals [9][19]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy changes and the potential reallocation of exemptions could impact the demand for palm oil, particularly in relation to North American soybean oil prices [5][6][7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The palm oil price is expected to find new support levels around 3,800 ringgit or 8,000 yuan in the long term, influenced by seasonal production increases and domestic demand fluctuations [4][18]. - The market is currently witnessing a divergence between palm oil pricing and commodity price indices, indicating a potential misalignment in market expectations [9][19]. - The palm oil market's reliance on speculative sentiment may lead to short-term price corrections, while long-term demand from India and Southeast Asia remains robust [19].

【四季度国际棕榈油价格或高位震荡，基本面预期偏强】8月28日消息，四季度马来西亚棕榈油产量会 随季节性规律回落，且该国拟年底前启动可持续航空燃料生产，国内消费预期增加，致使国际棕榈油供 应预计下降。 当前印度植物油库存仍偏低，排灯节前补库需求高，这提振了产区棕榈油出口，对国际 棕榈油价格形成支撑。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 8月21日至23日，全球央行年会在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话备受关注。 目前货币市场交易员预期，美联储在今年9月降息25个基点的概率达到80%。 会议前夕，投资者观望情绪愈加浓厚，亚太市场涨跌不一。东南亚股市多数下跌。泰国SET指数周跌 0.48%，报1253.39点；越南胡志明指数周涨1.04%，报1647.03点；印尼雅加达综合指数（JKSE）周跌 0.5%，报7858.85点；新加坡海峡指数周涨0.53%，报4253.02点；马来西亚吉隆坡综合指数周涨1.34%， 报1597.47点；菲律宾马尼拉指数周跌0.53%，报6281.58点。 亚太其他主要股指同样下跌，日经225指数周跌1.72%或745.02点，报42633.29点；韩国KOSPI指数周跌 1.76%，报3168.73点；澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数周涨0.32%，报8967.4点。 国际金融论坛学术委员、上海外国语大学金融创新与发展研究中心主任章玉贵向21世纪经济报道记者表 示，上周亚太股市震荡与市场交易主体的观望情绪偏浓存在一定关系，市场交易员押注美联储有极大概 率在9月启动降息。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [3] Core Insights - Palm oil is the largest vegetable oil in terms of production, consumption, and international trade, accounting for over 30% of total vegetable oil production. The main production countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, which together account for 87% of global palm oil production. Global palm oil consumption is expected to reach 77.22 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [5][29][35] Market Background - Palm oil production is primarily concentrated in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with Indonesia producing 46 million tons (59% of global production), Malaysia 18.7 million tons (24%), and Thailand 3.33 million tons (4%) in 2024. The total global palm oil production is projected to be 78.25 million tons [29][35] - Global palm oil consumption is concentrated in Asia and Europe, with Indonesia consuming 23.28 million tons (30%), India 8.8 million tons (11%), China 4.6 million tons (6%), and the EU 3.85 million tons (5%) in 2024 [35][39] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short-term supply is recovering, with Malaysia's palm oil production increasing by 12% year-on-year in April. However, long-term production growth potential is limited due to declining planting areas and aging oil palm trees in Malaysia. Indonesia's biodiesel policy is expected to drive consumption growth [6][57][66] - The demand for palm oil is supported by the biodiesel market, particularly in Indonesia, where domestic consumption has risen significantly due to biodiesel policies. The B40 policy is expected to add 2-3 million tons of palm oil consumption annually [66]