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油脂油料早报-20250924
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 00:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Malaysian palm oil market shows that the August production increased by 4.3 million tons (+2.4%) to 1.85 million tons, mainly driven by the increase in Sabah and Sarawak, while the production in the Malaysian Peninsula declined after peaking in July [1] - August exports were basically the same as in July, at 1.32 million tons, with different trends in different regions [1] - Due to increased production and flat exports, August palm oil inventories reached 2.2 million tons, the highest since January 2024, and are expected to decline starting in November [1] - Palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil market in the third quarter, with a 10.9% increase, while the performance of other vegetable oils varied, but the overall market sentiment is optimistic and the upward trend is expected to continue into the fourth quarter [1] - In 2026, the consumption growth rate of the four major vegetable oils is expected to exceed the production growth rate, resulting in a small supply gap, which may support vegetable oil prices to remain firm for the rest of 2025 [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Malaysian palm oil production in August increased by 4.3 million tons (+2.4%) to 1.85 million tons, driven by Sabah and Sarawak, while the Malaysian Peninsula's production declined [1] - August exports were flat at 1.32 million tons, with varying trends in different regions [1] - August inventories reached 2.2 million tons, the highest since January 2024, expected to rise slightly from September to October and decline starting in November [1] - Palm oil led the vegetable oil market in the third quarter, rising 10.9% quarter - on - quarter, while other vegetable oils had different performances, and the overall market sentiment is optimistic with the upward trend expected to continue into the fourth quarter [1] - In 2026, the consumption growth of the four major vegetable oils is expected to exceed production, leading to a supply gap, and factors such as increased biodiesel quotas in the US, Brazil, and potentially in Indonesia may support vegetable oil prices in the rest of 2025 [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products (soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are provided [1]