养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月28日星期六 棕榈油：节后首周棕榈油冲高回落，盘面再度跌至节前低点附近， 高频数据显示2月马棕出口环比显著下滑，产地库存高位，棕榈油 价格承压。3月印尼将提高出口关税，间接利多马棕出口，美伊军 事冲突也将带动原油及植物油拉涨，期价下 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货油脂月报 油脂 美国生物柴油或逐步落地 利多能否兑现成关键 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断 并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 2026 年 3 月 1 日 国际方面，3月美豆油市场则面临多项生物柴油政策落地，政策与预期能 否兑现成为关键，市场希望美豆油强预期的兑现。目前美豆油供给增加明显， 但需求增幅不明显，库存压力明显，如果政策利好落地，强预期向强现实转化， 那么美豆油或继续走高，如果掺混政策不及预期，那么美豆油则面临利多出尽， 回吐涨幅的可能。 对于马棕油市场而言，沉重的库存压力是制约价格走高的关键所在。从 库存来看，2025年以来马棕油库存变动情况与2018年-2019年同期较为相似， 2019年2月马棕油库存见顶回落，而2025年12月马棕油库存见顶回落。马棕油 价格在7月止跌反弹因库存降至240万吨以下。由此可以预计，短期马棕油价格 或因库存高企而低位震荡反复。一旦库存降至240万吨以下，价格或迎来上涨 契机。2月 ...

| | 1、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至2月8日，巴西大豆播种率为99.7%，上周为 | | --- | --- | | | 99.6%，去年同期为99.5%，五年均值为99.5%；巴西大豆收割率为17.4%，上周为11.2%，去年同 | | 行业 | 期为14.8%，五年均值为18.7%。2、布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所（BAGE）称，截至2月4日，阿根廷 | | 信息 | 2025/2026年度大豆播种工作全部结束3、截至2月6日当周，国内主要油厂大豆压榨量248万吨，为 | | | 历史次高水平，周环比上升19万吨 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收跌，根据CONAB数据截至1月31日，巴西大豆收割率为11.4%，上周为 | | | 6.6%，去年同期为8%，五年均值为11.8%。美方称中国对美豆的采购计划可能从已完成的1200万吨 | | | 提升至2000万吨，大幅提振美豆出口前景。但考虑到巴西收割工作现阶段持续进行，且巴西产量 | | | 预估继续上调，收割压力逐步加大使得美豆期价仍面临一定压力。国内方面，节后进口大豆拍卖 | | | 预计恢复，叠加国内豆粕的高库存以及远月供应 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 临近长假，油脂观望为主 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-09 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：临近长假，油脂观望为主 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）马来棕榈油持续减产，印尼3月提高关税或限制出口；（2）虽然此前预期2-3月有大豆青黄不接的可能，但在增购美豆800万吨以及拍卖储备大豆 | | | | 的预期下，短期大豆偏紧的预期可能落空；（3）大豆油厂春节期间普遍停机半个月左右；（4）上周菜籽有小部分开机，但压榨量很小，仍然缺籽。 | | 需求 | 国内篇空；产 | （1）印度和中国节前备货节奏进入尾声，后续预计有需求的回落；（2）美国生柴整体配额预计维持此前草案的水平或更低，但取消了对进口投料的惩 | | | 地有利多 | 罚，更利好加拿大菜系产品需求，关 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - From January 22 - 29, US soybean export sales net increase was 43.74 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 138.77 million tons, up 9% from the previous week and 4% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 44.46 million tons, and 0.04 million tons for the next market year [1] - From January 22 - 29, US soybean meal export sales net increase was 38.03 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 30.78 million tons, down 7% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 42.35 million tons, and 0 for the next market year [1] - Anec forecasts Brazil's soybean exports in February to be 11.42 billion tons, a significant increase from 9.73 billion tons in the same period last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.63 billion tons, compared to 1.5 billion tons last year [1] - Secex data shows Brazil exported 1,876,531.75 tons of soybeans in January, a 75.51% increase year - on - year [1] - MPOA data indicates Malaysia's crude palm oil production in January decreased 14.03% month - on - month to 1.57 billion tons [1] - Analysts estimate Canada's rapeseed inventory as of December 31, 2025, to be 15.758 billion tons, up from 13.223 billion tons at the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 30 to February 5, 2026, are presented in a table [2] Group 3: Others - There are mentions of protein meal basis, grease basis, and grease and oil futures price spreads, but no specific data is provided [2][5][9]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority decline in night trading on February 5, with non-metal building materials leading the drop, specifically PVC down by 1.90% [1] - The black series commodities all experienced declines, with coking coal falling by 1.78% [1] - Most chemical products also decreased, with soda ash down by 1.32% [1] Group 2 - Energy products showed gains, with fuel oil increasing by 0.64% [1] - Agricultural products mostly rose, with corn starch up by 0.44% [1] - Oilseeds and oils also saw increases, with soybean meal rising by 0.18% [1]

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2026/2/5 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8140 | 9138 | 9243 | 2723 | 2349 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 54 | 44 | 28 | -4 | -13 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.67% | 0.48% | -3.15% | -0.15% | -0.55% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US Treasury issued proposed rules for biofuel producers to obtain tax credits, which was welcomed by the biofuel trade organization but some issues remain unanswered [1] - Malaysian palm oil export data from different institutions showed different trends in January 2026, with production also showing a decline [1] - India's palm oil imports in January reached a four - month high, with a significant increase, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports decreased [1] Summary by Related Content Biofuel Policy - The US Treasury released proposed rules on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can get a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon transportation fuels, including aviation fuel. The "45Z" plan under the Inflation Reduction Act was revised in the Great America Act last year, allowing the use of Canadian and Mexican raw materials and adjusting the calculation method of land - use intensity. The plan was welcomed by the biofuel trade organization, but some questions remained unanswered [1] Malaysian Palm Oil - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January 2026 were 944,885 tons, a 5.58% decrease from December 2025. AmSpec data showed an increase of 14.89% to 1,375,718 tons. SPPOMA data indicated a 13.08% decline in production, a 13.78% drop in fresh fruit bunch yield, and a 0.16% increase in oil extraction rate [1] Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - Indian palm oil imports in January soared 51% to 766,000 tons, a four - month high, while soybean oil imports plunged 45% to 280,000 tons (the lowest since June 2024) and sunflower oil imports dropped 23% to 269,000 tons. Total edible vegetable oil imports decreased 3.5% to 1.32 million tons. It is expected that palm oil imports in February will further increase [1] Price and Basis Data - Spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from January 28 - February 3, 2026, in different regions were provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2] - Multiple basis charts were presented, including soybean meal (January, September, May basis in Jiangsu), rapeseed meal (January, May, September basis in Guangdong), soybean oil (January, September, May basis in Zhangjiagang), palm oil (January, May, September basis in Guangzhou), and rapeseed oil (January, May, September basis in East China) [3][4][5] Price Spread Data - Various seasonal price spread charts were provided, including spreads between different contracts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, as well as spreads between different types of oilseeds and oils such as soybean - rapeseed meal, soybean - palm oil, and rapeseed - soybean oil [4]

化工品涨幅居前，丁二烯橡胶涨2.57%；非金属建材涨跌参半，玻璃涨2.14%；能源品全部上涨，燃油 涨2.01%；黑色系多数上涨，焦煤涨0.43%；油脂油料跌幅居前，菜粕跌0.71%；农副产品多数下跌，棉 花跌0.10%。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 关注美国生柴、中加贸易以及中东地缘局势 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-02 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：关注美国生柴、中加贸易以及中东地缘局势 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 5/22 6/22 7/22 8/22 9/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 1/22 棕榈油 豆油 菜油 农产品指数 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 豆油偏紧，菜 油偏紧有缓和， | （1）马来持续减产表现；（2）2-3月进口大豆有青黄不接的可能； ...