【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：油粕分化 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 豆粕：AgRural：巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收割工作已完成 39%，远低于去年 同期的 50%。由于南里奥格兰德州受干旱影响导致产量下降，AgRural 将全国大 豆产量预估下调 300 万吨至 1.78 亿吨，不过仍将是历史最高纪录，同比增长 3.8%。 USDA 压榨月报：2026 年 1 月大豆压榨量为 2.278 亿蒲，环比减少 0.9%，同比增 加 7%。这一数据略高于市场预期的 2.263 亿蒲。截至 2026 年 1 月底，美国豆油 库存为 24.33 亿磅，环比增长 11.7%，同比激增 33.9%。这一数据也超过市场预 期，为 2023 年 4 月以来的最高水平。USDA 出口检验：截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日的 一周，美国大豆出口检验量为 1,137,582 吨，上周为修正后的 681,545 吨，去年 同期为 702,160 吨。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口检验总量达到 26,182,723 吨，同比减少 32.2%，2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口达到全年出口目标的 58.4% ...

内容概要：有机食品是根据有机农业和有机食品生产、加工标准或生产、加工技术规范而生产、加工， 并经有机食品认证组织认证的一切农副产品。作为一种健康、环保的食品，越来越受到世界各国消费者 的欢迎。2024年，我国有机产业整体迈入"生产扩张、加工提质、市场旺盛、国际合作深化"的新阶段。 目前，我国已成为全球第三大有机消费市场，第五大有机农业种植国。随着居民收入水平的提高和健康 消费理念的深入普及，消费者对有机食品的需求将持续增长，市场规模持续扩大。2025年，我国有机食 品产量3723.4万吨，进口量2.8万吨，出口量55.5万吨，国内需求量3670.7万吨，市场规模达到1330.6亿 元；预计2026年，我国有机食品产量3984.5万吨，进口量2.9万吨，出口量58.6万吨，国内需求量3928.8 万吨，市场规模有望达到1521.2亿元。 上市企业：北大荒[600598]、西王食品[000639]、东方集团[600811.SH] 相关企业：中国圣牧有机奶业有限公司、重庆市天友乳业股份有限公司 关键词：有机食品认行业政策、有机食品认行业产业链、有机食品认获证单位总数、有机食品认证面 积、有机食品认供需平衡、有机食品 ...

（来源：安庆新闻网） 转自：安庆新闻网 春节假期，年货市场迎来一年中最繁忙的"黄金期"。连日来，记者走访安庆城区多家商超、农贸批发市场，实地探访节日市场保供情况。 "米袋子"充实 粮油供应不断档 "干货腊味"走俏 年货品质有保障 春节假期，干货区成了不少市民的"热门打卡地"。在大润发超市干货专区，从本地瓜蒌子到来自天南地北的夏威夷果、开心果，从传统的花生瓜子到各式炒 货，摆得满满当当。一旁的黑木耳、红枣、香菇、黄花菜以及粉丝、腐竹等也堆成"小山"，供顾客随意挑选。 腊味区则呈现出另一种视觉冲击。货架上分类悬挂着广式腊肠、川味腊肉和湖南腊肉，油润的琥珀色在灯光下泛着光泽。工作人员一边整理一边补货。据介 绍，今年腊味消费呈现分化趋势：传统整块腊肉销量平稳，而腊肠销量增长近五成。 七街一家超市的腊味导购员表示，春节期间，超市针对腊肠、腊肉等腊味实行精细化分类备货，并提前锁定产地货源，确保价格稳定、品质上乘，让老百姓 的团圆宴更丰盛、更有品质。 大润发超市内，春节装饰年味十足。米面粮油专区货架上，各类商品码放整齐，前来选购的市民络绎不绝。 超市现场负责人蔡婕介绍，为保障节日供应，超市半个月前便开始增加库存。米面粮油类 ...

快过年了，你家年货备齐了吗？ 如果还没，不妨去身边的热闹市集逛一逛——那里正上演着一场"土"与"洋"的奇妙相遇。天南地 北、国内海外的好东西，如今在一个市集里就能"一站买齐"。 1月30日，在浙江义乌中国进口商品城一家店铺内，店员给顾客推荐塞尔维亚葡萄酒。新华社记者 徐昱 摄 春节临近，在全球最大小商品集散中心浙江义乌，一列列自欧洲归来的中欧班列，正将西班牙的红 酒、葵花籽油和气泡水，波兰的牛奶，法国的红酒等"洋年货"准时送抵义乌，堪称"移动的欧洲年货集 市"。 非遗年货市场精彩纷呈 年货市场中各类非遗元素的加入为年货消费带来更多火花。 打造"家门口"的全球购 2月4日，在"共享大市场·出口中国"2026年首场活动暨北京国际精品荟的进口商品推介区，参观者 在参观展出的各国商品。新华社记者 鞠焕宗 摄 2月4日，"共享大市场·出口中国"2026年首场活动暨北京国际精品荟启动活动举行，现场打造了"一 站式"全球好物采购展区。活动还配套"全球甄选 悦享生活"进口优品体验周、"汇全球 聚雅宝"欧亚国家 精品推广周暨年货节等其他系列活动，将全球优质商品全面融入春节消费场景，让人们不出国门即可便 捷选购各国好物，激发节日 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global vegetable oil supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 fiscal year, but consumption growth is stronger, leading to a decrease in the inventory-to-consumption ratio, projected to drop to around 3% for the fourth consecutive year [2][3] - The demand for edible and industrial uses is the main driver, with biodiesel production accounting for over 25% of total vegetable oil consumption [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The U.S. is expected to introduce new policies that could significantly increase the mandatory blending volume of biodiesel, potentially raising the requirement from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to between 5.1 and 5.6 billion gallons, a 60% increase, which will substantially boost U.S. soybean oil demand [5][7] - Different countries use various types of vegetable oils for biodiesel production, leading to varied market responses. The U.S. primarily uses soybean oil, while Indonesia focuses on palm oil, and the EU utilizes multiple types [6][8] - Indonesia plans to maintain its B40 biodiesel blending policy due to insufficient subsidy levels, while potentially increasing export tariffs to support its biodiesel industry [1][8] Market Dynamics - Global palm oil production growth is slowing, while industrial demand continues to rise, leading to decreased export capacity. The new U.S. clean fuel policy is expected to further drive soybean demand, impacting the global supply landscape [9] - The international market is seeing price increases for soybean and canola due to U.S. clean fuel policies, while domestic prices in China are constrained by a large livestock sector and low-cost formulations [10] Price Trends and Impacts - India imports a significant amount of palm oil (8-9 million tons annually), and fluctuations in palm oil prices compared to soybean oil will influence its import decisions [11][12] - The expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory from 3.05 million tons in December 2025 to around 2.9 million tons in January 2026 is attributed to seasonal production cuts and drought conditions in Indonesia [14] Biodiesel Policy Implications - The global biodiesel policy in 2026 is likely to favor soybean oil, with Brazil expected to increase biodiesel production by 400,000 tons and the U.S. by 2 million tons, consuming all production increases [13] - The lack of a B50 policy in Indonesia may reduce demand but is expected to be offset by overall consumption increases, maintaining price support [17] Supply Chain Considerations - The supply chain for vegetable oils is highly concentrated, with 70% of soybean cultivation in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, and over 80% of palm oil produced in Malaysia and Indonesia [15] - The volatility of crude oil prices significantly impacts the energy attributes of vegetable oils, with around 25% of vegetable oil used for biodiesel production [16] Future Outlook - The current weather conditions in South America are favorable for soybean production, with Brazil's output expected to be between 176 million and 181 million tons, ensuring ample global supply [18] - The government's strategic release of stored soybeans has alleviated supply tightness, and with a large new soybean harvest expected, the likelihood of future shortages is low [19] - Despite high oilseed inventories, soybean oil prices may remain relatively strong in the short term due to overall supply dynamics [20]

Core Viewpoint - Xiwang Food has been recognized as one of the top 500 key enterprises in China's food industry for 2025, with a focus on enhancing its market share in corn germ oil to 35% [1] Group 1: Company Achievements - Xiwang Food has been awarded as one of China's top ten grain and oil groups and brands, and its edible oil products have received multiple gold awards at the World Oil Expo [1] - The company has actively contributed to the establishment of a quality traceability system for edible oils, setting industry standards [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Xiwang Food has led the way in smart and automated upgrades of its equipment, achieving full-process quality control from raw materials to finished edible oil [1] - The company has established a unique smart factory with an Industry 4.0 concept, producing packaging materials for edible oils, ensuring comprehensive control over production [1] Group 3: Commitment to Sustainability - Since being recognized as a national-level green factory in 2019, Xiwang Food has focused on circular economy and green production, enhancing its green manufacturing system [2] - The company has obtained the first "carbon label" in the edible oil industry and has passed greenhouse gas verification and clean production audits [2] - Xiwang Food aims to continue its green and innovative development, leveraging digital management and innovative technologies to transform green investments into brand value [2]

Group 1 - On January 30, a container truck loaded with imported goods entered the Yiwu Comprehensive Bonded Zone for bonded warehousing [1] - Customs officers conducted inspections of imported health products in the cross-border e-commerce warehouse within the Yiwu Comprehensive Bonded Zone [7] - Workers in the cross-border e-commerce warehouse were seen packing and labeling express delivery orders for imported goods that had completed customs declaration [2][8] Group 2 - A China-Europe freight train carrying imported products such as red wine, sunflower oil, and sparkling water was unloading at the Yiwu railway port [4] - Customers were observed purchasing imported goods, including Spanish ham and red wine, at a store specializing in Spanish imports within the Yiwu China Import Commodity City [5]

Core Viewpoint - Xiwang Food is expected to report a significant increase in losses for the fiscal year 2025, with projected net losses ranging from 880 million to 1.32 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 444 million yuan in the previous year, indicating a year-on-year doubling of losses [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of a loss between 880 million and 1.32 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 443.57 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be a loss between 880 million and 1.3 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 432.73 million yuan in the previous year [2]. - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between -1.22 yuan and -0.82 yuan, compared to -0.41 yuan per share last year [2]. - The company has reported consecutive losses over the past three years, with cumulative losses amounting to approximately 1.08 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [2]. Operational Challenges - The increase in losses is attributed to rising prices of raw materials, particularly whey protein, and intensified competition in the sports nutrition sector [2]. - The company plans to recognize an impairment loss on intangible assets estimated between 950 million and 1.5 billion yuan, subject to final audit [2]. Strategic Outlook - Despite the challenges, the management aims to implement significant corrective measures in 2026 to improve future performance [4]. - The company plans to optimize product costs by diversifying its product portfolio, shifting towards high-margin products, and reducing reliance on whey protein [4]. - Xiwang Food intends to expand into new product categories, including new proteins, creatine, peptides, and collagen, to build a strong innovative product line [4]. Market and Cost Management - The company will increase investment in digital channels, focusing on high-margin categories through platforms like Amazon, while optimizing product offerings at Walmart [5]. - A strict cost control policy will be adopted, including dynamic budget monitoring, expenditure reduction, and optimization of organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency [5]. - As of January 30, the company's stock price decreased by 1.25% to 3.17 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 3.422 billion yuan, indicating stagnant stock performance over the past year [5].

（来源：邯郸日报） 2026年1月1日至1月28日，义乌中欧班列开行208列，主要发送物品为日用百货、智能家电、新能源汽车配件、汽车发动机等；回程班列装载 货物主要是红酒、火腿、奶制品、葵花籽油、化妆品等。 新华社记者 徐昱 摄 转自：邯郸日报 1月30日，在义乌铁路口岸，一列载着红酒、葵花籽油、气泡水等进口商品的中欧班列回程班列在卸货。 春节临近，在全球最大小商品集散中心浙江义乌，一列列自欧洲归来的中欧班列，正将西班牙的红酒、葵花籽油和气泡水，波兰的牛奶，法 国的红酒等"洋年货"准时送抵义乌，堪称"移动的欧洲年货集市"。 ...

1月30日，在义乌铁路口岸，一列载着红酒、葵花籽油、气泡水等进口商品的中欧班列回程班列在卸 货。春节临近，一列列自欧洲归来的中欧班列，正将西班牙的红酒、葵花籽油和气泡水，波兰的牛奶， 法国的红酒等"洋年货"准时送抵义乌，堪称"移动的欧洲年货集市"。 ...