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在上海楼市,四房才是真刚需
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-03 06:12
关于上海各户型的研究我们之前也写了不少了,有着占据二手市场将近一半的天量供应,两房市场竞争特别大。与此同时,新房市场中的两房供应量也越 来越小,同时供求比还在上升,形势上有种落伍,即将被市场抛弃的悲凉。 数据来源:兔博士 新房市场中三房面积也越来越大,梯户比优化、配置越来越高,相比之下,存量的小三房显得性价比真心不高。 这些曾经的刚需产品好像正在脱去刚需的长褂,新的刚需又在哪呢? 回答这个问题之前,我想分享一个数据:上海的二孩率、多孩率。 结婚率垫底、生育率垫底、单身人数攀升,一直以来都是上海的标签,我去翻了翻上海卫健委的数据,总和生育率接近1,确实不高,但有意思的是,生 二孩多孩的家庭竟能占到三成左右。 数据来源:兔博士 小三房同样不容乐观,在低得房率、户型同质化严重的泥淖里拔不出来,新增挂牌房源的增速也超越其他户型。 | | | | ()单盘主义 乙 真叫卢俊 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 12 | 三次 | 多孩 | | 2020年 | 62. 26% | 34. 03% | 3.71% | | 2021年 | 64. 19% | 31. 86% | 3. 95% | ...
大揭秘!为何都在跌,三亚房价却涨了……
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 17:23
Core Viewpoint - The recent data on housing prices in 70 cities across the country has surprised many, particularly the increase in new home prices in Sanya, which seems counterintuitive given the overall downward trend in the real estate market [1][3]. Group 1: Sanya Housing Market Dynamics - Sanya's new home prices have shown a fluctuating trend, remaining above the zero line in 2023, but experiencing a decline in 2024 with a maximum drop exceeding 0.7% before a slight recovery in April 2024 with a 0.2% increase [3][6]. - The increase in Sanya's new home prices can be attributed to a combination of policy factors, such as the "new home filing window period," and a significant surge in residential supply over the past two years, leading to continuous product upgrades [3][6]. Group 2: Demand Characteristics - The demand for housing in Sanya is characterized as a different dimension of rigid demand, primarily driven by middle-class individuals seeking vacation homes for better living conditions, rather than the typical rigid demand seen in larger cities like Haikou [6][7]. - Sanya's unique natural resources, such as pleasant climate and scenic environment, create a strong demand among middle-class buyers from various regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, which supports the market [7][9]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - The Sanya housing market exhibits a stark contrast between luxury and ordinary housing, with luxury properties selling out while average homes struggle to attract buyers, reflecting a broader trend seen in major cities [9][10]. - High-value properties continue to attract wealthy buyers, while the middle-class appears to be priced out of the luxury market, indicating a shift in target demographics for real estate developers [11][12]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market downturn presents an opportunity for buyers to acquire high-quality properties, as developers are compelled to offer better products to attract consumers in a buyer's market [12][14]. - The emphasis on high-quality housing with favorable attributes, such as high usable area and low density, is increasingly important, suggesting that buyers who act now may benefit significantly [14].