根据Redfin的数据，上月市场上活跃的购房者约为143万人，这是该经纪公司自2020年4月（当时美国因 疫情封锁导致交易停滞）以来记录的最低水平。11月卖家数量比买家多出约37%，这一差距是去年的两 倍以上。 Redfin高级经济学家阿萨德·汗表示："住房可负担性的适度改善可能会在2026年吸引部分购房者入市。 但在可预见的未来，住房市场可能仍将处于买方市场区间，卖家需通过降价或提供优惠来吸引买家。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月25日电美国抵押贷款利率连续第二周小幅回落。房地美周三在一份声明中表示，30年 期固定利率贷款的平均利率为6.18%，低于上周的6.21%。自9月以来利率持续下降，但购房者的反应仍 显迟缓。 与此同时，卖家正撤下挂牌房源，等待市场回暖。关键的春季销售旺季将在未来几个月内启动，房产经 纪期待随着天气转暖买家能重返市场。 ...

当前的赣州楼市，分化还在加剧。 有的房子挂牌一天被秒，有的房子挂牌几年依旧没卖出去。 近日，毅德融城一套房产，挂牌1415天终于成交，卖了将近4年的时间，成交周期就像老太太的裹脚布，又臭又长。 这是一套建筑面积约106.55㎡的三房，位于17层住宅的中楼层，为毛坯状态尚未装修。以42.8万、4017元/㎡成交。 成交周期1415天。这期间，房东进行了12次调价。 根据调价记录，该房源于2021年12月底挂牌出售，首次挂牌价为95万，随后一路降价，每次降价的幅度在8千-10万不等。 | ○ 2024-03-13 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | + 降价7万 售价66万 | | | | ○ 2023-06-29 | | | | > 降价0.8万 售价73万 | | | | ○ 2023-06-19 | | | | + 降价4.2万 售价73.8万 | | | | ○ 2023-06-03 | | | | ↓ 降价1万 售价78万 | | | | ○ 2023-04-24 | | | | ↓ 降价1万 售价79万 | | | | | 咨询房源及成交价格信息 | | | | | 2 公众号: ...

分析师将这一轮需求拆解为两大组成部分： 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 人 工 智 能 算 力 需 求 爆 发 的 始 末 首先，让我们把时间拉回 2023 年，也就是人工智能热潮的起点。彼时，人工智能作为云计算 领域的全新应用场景，催生了该行业的爆发式增长，而当时科技巨头们的算力储备，根本不足 以满足激增的市场需求。 第一，随着人工智能技术的问世，数千家企业纷纷开始开发面向智能设备的新应用，同时对现 有应用进行人工智能化改造。 想必你也注意到，过去几年里，应用商店（App Store 和谷歌 应用商店）中涌现出了大量新应用。而这些应用的运行，正是云计算需求的核心来源。这些企 业基本不会自建数据中心，而是选择在云计算市场租赁算力。 从财报数据来看，亚马逊（Amazon, AMZN）的表现可圈可点。人工智能热潮持续发酵，上 季度云计算业务增速加快，同比增幅达到 20%；营收与利润双双创下历史新高。 更需注意的是，人工智能技术的应用本身，就需要消耗海量的内存与算力资源。 目前，公司市值达 2.4 万亿美元，市盈率略高于 32 倍。整体而言，财报数据表现优异，展现 出一家健康成长的企业面貌。但问题在于，所有财务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in commission fees for second-hand housing transactions in Guangzhou, highlighting the shift in the commission structure and the impact of market conditions on pricing strategies [3][10]. Commission Fee Changes - Recent reports indicate that the commission rate for sellers on the Beike platform in Guangzhou has increased from 1% to 1.5%, while the buyer's commission remains unchanged [3][4]. - The average commission rate across 25 major cities in China is reported to be 2.2%, which is approximately 30% lower than the mainstream reference price of 3% [5][10]. - In Guangzhou, the commission rates typically range from 1.5% to 3%, with smaller agencies sometimes charging as low as 0.69% [5][10]. Market Dynamics - The current "buyer’s market" has reduced the bargaining power of sellers, leading to a decrease in their ability to negotiate commission fees [7][10]. - The increase in commission fees for sellers is attributed to a high volume of listings and prolonged transaction times, with average selling periods exceeding 200 days [10][11]. - The competitive landscape has led to some agencies offering aggressive pricing strategies, such as zero commission for buyers and reduced fees for sellers [14][15]. Industry Trends - The article notes a significant "involution" phenomenon in the real estate agency sector, where smaller agencies engage in price wars, leading to unsustainable low commission rates [13][14]. - Experts suggest that the future of commission pricing should be more refined, with a focus on service content and transparent pricing [12][15]. - Despite the downward trend in commission fees, leading agencies may maintain their pricing standards due to their established market position [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of commission rates for second-hand housing transactions in Guangzhou has sparked discussions, with the Beike platform increasing the commission rate for sellers from 1% to 1.5%, while maintaining the buyer's rate at 1.5% [2][5]. Commission Structure - The commission structure for second-hand housing transactions varies across different cities in China, with a dual commission model being common in cities like Chengdu and Guangzhou, where both buyers and sellers share the commission costs [3][6]. - According to statistics from the Yiju Research Institute, the average commission rate across 25 major cities in China is 2.2%, which is about 30% lower than the mainstream reference price of 3% [3][6]. - In Guangzhou, the commission rates typically range from 1.5% to 3% of the total property price, with smaller agencies sometimes charging as low as 0.69% [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The current "buyer's market" has led to a decrease in the bargaining power of sellers regarding commission fees, as the high volume of listings and slow transaction speeds have made selling more challenging [7][8]. - The average transaction cycle for properties in Guangzhou has exceeded 200 days, indicating a significant slowdown in the market [7][12]. - The increase in commission fees for sellers reflects the changing supply-demand dynamics in the real estate market, where sellers are willing to offer higher commissions to incentivize agents to promote their properties [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - The real estate brokerage industry is experiencing intense competition, with smaller agencies often engaging in price wars to attract clients, leading to extreme pricing strategies such as flat fees or full commission refunds [9][10][11]. - The entry barriers in the brokerage industry are low, resulting in a proliferation of small agencies that may lack the service quality and brand reputation of larger firms [11]. Future Trends - Experts suggest that commission structures should become more refined, with pricing based on specific service components rather than flat rates, to better reflect the value provided [11][12]. - Despite the downward trend in commission fees, leading agencies may maintain their pricing standards due to their established market presence and service quality [12].

Core Insights - Brazilian soybean exporters have raised prices to $650 per ton, a $70 increase from the previous month, making it more expensive than U.S. soybeans, leading to losses for Chinese processing companies [1][3] - In response, China has halted purchases of 8 million tons of Brazilian soybeans for December and January, instead signing a deal for 1.3 million tons from Argentina, filling the supply gap left by Brazil [3][5] Group 1: Price Dynamics and Market Reactions - The price increase by Brazilian exporters was based on a misjudgment of China's dependency, as Brazil accounted for 66% of China's soybean imports from January to September 2025 [3] - Brazil's price surge was influenced by the halt in U.S. soybean imports due to trade tensions, leading Brazilian exporters to believe they had a monopoly [3][5] - Argentina's sudden removal of a 26% soybean export tax has made its soybeans significantly cheaper, prompting a rapid response from Chinese buyers [5][7] Group 2: Strategic Responses from China - China has a strategic reserve of approximately 45 million tons of soybeans, sufficient to meet three months of consumption, and has already released 1.5 million tons to stabilize prices [7] - The diversification of soybean import sources has expanded from three to twelve countries, including increased imports from Russia and Uruguay, reducing reliance on Brazil [7] - Technological advancements in feed have reduced the proportion of soybean meal in animal feed, decreasing annual soybean demand by approximately 18 million tons [7] Group 3: Long-term Implications and Market Dynamics - The recent developments have highlighted the issues in the global soybean pricing mechanism, where China, despite consuming 60% of the world's soybeans, has been subject to pricing dictated by the Chicago futures market [8] - China's actions signal a shift towards a buyer's market, where both supply and demand sides will influence pricing rules, moving away from a seller-dominated market [8] - Argentina's increased exports to China not only stabilize its foreign exchange income but also enhance its long-term credibility in the Chinese market [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于沪深300指数5%以上) [63] Core Insights - The beauty industry is currently in a rational development phase, with increasing consumer power and competitiveness of domestic brands, particularly those that can quickly respond to consumer needs [3][59] - The 2025 edition of "All Girls' Offer" features 88 brands and 166 SKUs, with a significant increase in participation from domestic brands, reflecting the rise of domestic products and the pursuit of greater exposure by emerging brands [3][10][59] - The negotiation mechanism for this season's offers is more consumer-friendly, with deeper discounts, new products upgraded without price increases, and combinations that better meet consumer needs [3][59] Summary by Sections Consumer Power and Market Dynamics - Consumer power has significantly increased, indicating a "buyer’s market" in the current beauty industry [3][59] - The 2025 offer introduced a competitive mechanism where consumer votes account for 60% of the total, intensifying brand competition [10][59] Brand Participation and Offer Characteristics - This season's offers include a higher proportion of domestic and mass-market brands, with 32 domestic brands and 20 international brands participating [3][10][59] - The offers are characterized by deeper discounts, new products with no price increases, and simpler, cleaner bundles for returning customers [3][25][59] International and Domestic Brand Competition - International brands are continuously upgrading their products, while domestic brands are enhancing their research capabilities and actively participating in offer negotiations [3][42][45] - Emerging domestic brands are seeking greater exposure and sales growth by participating in the offers [53][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands such as 毛戈平, 珀莱雅, 上美股份, 爱美客, 贝泰妮, 润本股份, 巨子生物, and 丸美股份, which are well-positioned in the current market [3][59]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that landlords should be cautious about revealing their psychological price (bottom line) to real estate agents due to the current buyer's market conditions, where supply exceeds demand [1][2] - It highlights that revealing the bottom line to agents can unfairly set a baseline for negotiations, as buyers tend to negotiate down from any quoted price [1] - The article points out that the significant number of listings in the Shanghai real estate market leads to increased information asymmetry between agents and landlords, which can result in agents leveraging this information to pressure landlords into lower prices [1] Group 2 - The article acknowledges the reality of a buyer's market, where properties are difficult to sell, and price reductions are often necessary for transactions to occur [2] - It advises landlords to find a balance between setting a competitive listing price to attract agents and being cautious about their bottom line during negotiations with potential buyers [2] - The article concludes with a wish for landlords to successfully sell their properties at acceptable prices despite the challenges presented by the market dynamics [2]

Market Overview - The real estate market in the U.S. is experiencing a significant slowdown, with a noticeable decline in buyer demand and a shift towards a buyer's market [1][2][3] - In June, over 25% of sellers reduced their asking prices, marking the highest percentage since 2018 [2] - The National Association of Home Builders reported that 66% of home builders are offering sales incentives to attract buyers, the highest rate since the pandemic began [2] Regional Trends - Florida's real estate market has seen a notable reversal, with 85% of counties experiencing price declines over the past year [2] - Texas also reported significant price drops, while parts of California, Arizona, Colorado, and Idaho saw declines of over 3% from recent peaks [2] - In contrast, some areas in the Northeast and Midwest are still witnessing price increases, albeit at a slower rate than in previous years [3] Economic Factors - Rising home insurance and property tax costs are discouraging buyers from paying previous high prices [3] - Economic uncertainty, exacerbated by trade policies and disappointing employment data, is causing potential buyers to hesitate on making large financial commitments [3] - The rental market has seen a recent uptick in median rents, which may influence housing demand [3] Interest Rate Expectations - Many potential buyers are waiting for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce home buying costs [5] - Although there is a general expectation of a rate cut in September, historical trends indicate that mortgage rates may not decrease as anticipated [5] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate recently fell to 6.58%, the lowest in nearly 10 months, which may present new opportunities for buyers [5]

Core Insights - Australian property prices have increased by 3.7% over the past 12 months, but signs of a slowdown are emerging [1] - The recent data indicates a potential third interest rate cut in August, which may lead to a modest increase in property prices [3] - Housing affordability is under significant pressure, making it difficult for prices to rise substantially from current levels [3] Price Trends - In July, property prices in Sydney rose by 0.6%, with a 12-month increase of 1.8%, while Melbourne saw a 0.4% rise and a 0.5% annual increase [3][7] - Brisbane recorded the highest annual price increase among capital cities at 7.3%, with a median residential price of AUD 934,623 [6][7] - The overall capital city price growth was 1.8% for the quarter, compared to 1.7% for regional markets [7] Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized as a seller's market, with low supply levels, making it an opportune time for sellers to list their properties [6] - The shift in growth momentum is moving from lower-end markets to mid-range markets as borrowing capacity improves [6] - Regional markets have shown stronger price growth compared to capital cities, with some areas experiencing over 20% increases [8]