周五（9月26日），地产板块逆市表现，代表A股龙头地产行情的中证800地产指数收涨近1%创年内新 高，多只成份股上涨。其中，招商蛇口上涨3.86%，滨江集团上涨2.29%，新城控股上涨1.85%，海南机 场、华发股份、上海临港等多股飘红。 消息面上，上海新一轮楼市调控政策实施满月效果显现，据监测数据显示，新政首周新房网签成交量环 比猛增超30%，随后三周市场逐渐回归常态但仍保持高位运行，政策实施首月全市新房总成交量较上月 增长19%，显示出该政策对房地产市场的短期刺激作用较为显著。 中银证券表示，随着北上深的结构性政策放松，楼市可能会有一小波短期的回温。配置端上，一方面， 流动性安全、重仓高能级城市、产品力突出的房企或更具备α属性；另一方面，得益于化债、政策纾 困、销售改善等多重逻辑下的困境反转的标的或具备更大的估值修复弹性。 国投证券认为，金九银十旺季来临下，房企供货强度持续提升，伴随核心城市调控政策宽松带来的购房 需求释放，叠加降息预期增强，新房销售有望迎来边际改善。建议关注困境反转类房企、保持拿地强度 的龙头房企、多元经营稳健发展的地方国企等。 热门ETF方面，全市场唯一跟踪中证800地产指数的地产ET ...

Group 1 - The real estate sector showed resilience, with the CSI 800 Real Estate Index rising nearly 1% to reach a new high for the year, driven by significant gains in stocks like China Merchants Shekou (+3.86%) and Binjiang Group (+2.29%) [1] - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index (159707) saw a peak increase of 3% during the day, closing up 1.15% with a trading volume of nearly 80 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest with a net subscription of 23.5 million units [1] Group 2 - The new round of housing market regulation in Shanghai has shown significant short-term effects, with new home transaction volumes increasing by over 30% in the first week and a total increase of 19% compared to the previous month [3] - Analysts from Zhongyin Securities suggest that structural policy relaxations in major cities may lead to a short-term rebound in the housing market, highlighting the potential for high-quality real estate companies to outperform [3] - Guotou Securities anticipates improved new home sales due to increased supply from developers and the release of pent-up demand from relaxed regulations in core cities, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts [3] Group 3 - The CSI 800 Real Estate Index currently has a price-to-book (PB) ratio of only 0.8, indicating a significant undervaluation at the 22nd percentile over the past decade, suggesting substantial room for valuation recovery [4] - Analysts recommend accumulating real estate stocks, particularly focusing on central state-owned enterprises and high-quality developers, due to the low valuation levels and potential liquidity boosts from anticipated interest rate cuts [4] Group 4 - The real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index and includes 13 leading real estate companies, showcasing a high concentration of top-tier firms, with the top ten constituents accounting for over 90% of the index [6][7] - The presence of central state-owned enterprises in the ETF enhances its resilience amid industry challenges, positioning leading real estate firms for greater flexibility and potential recovery [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market showed a positive recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by favorable policies and seasonal demand, with a significant increase in both new and second-hand residential transactions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, a total of 51,104 residential units were signed in Shenzhen, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [3]. - New residential sales reached 21,873 units, up 41.8% year-on-year, while second-hand residential sales increased by 36.6% to 29,231 units [3]. - The overall supply of new homes decreased significantly, with only 17,232 new units supplied, a drop of over 44% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Sales Dynamics - The new home transaction volume increased by nearly 80% year-on-year, with 31,074 new homes sold, and the average price for quality improvement projects ranged from 50,000 to 80,000 yuan per square meter [5][6]. - The proportion of existing homes in transactions is rising, with 30.9% of new homes sold being completed units, indicating a shift towards a "ready-to-move-in" market [5][6]. Group 3: Second-hand Market Trends - The second-hand housing market recorded 35,106 transactions, a 30.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with a notable dominance of small-sized units under 90 square meters, accounting for 55.9% of total transactions [7][8]. - The number of available second-hand homes increased to 73,858 units by the end of June, reflecting a 2.9% rise, indicating a growing willingness among homeowners to sell [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain stability in the second half of 2025, supported by strong demand from first-time buyers and the availability of high-quality new homes [10]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with a need for continued supportive policies to bolster consumer confidence [9].