Core Insights - The Beijing new housing market is experiencing a strong performance during the "Golden Week" holiday, with increased visitor and contract signing rates across various projects [1][4][8] - The surge in visitor numbers is attributed to the holiday providing ample viewing time for potential buyers and developers actively organizing promotional activities [5][6] Visitor and Sales Data - Many new housing projects in Beijing saw visitor numbers increase by over 40% during the holiday, with some projects reporting increases of 40% to 60% [4][5] - Specific project data shows that from October 1 to 6, the Jia Jing Li project had 83 visitors, an 8% increase, while the Man Yun ONE project had 130 visitors, a 30 visitor increase [4][7] - The "Chao Guan Tian Jun" project received over 500 visitors in the first five days of the holiday, achieving 42% of its total September visitor count [7] Sales Performance - The "Chao Guan Tian Jun" project achieved 12 contracts worth approximately 128 million yuan during the holiday, reaching 85% of its September contract value in just five days [7] - The Jia Jing Li project also saw a significant increase in sales, with a total of 6 units sold during the holiday, representing an 83% increase compared to previous periods [7] Market Trends and Factors - The new housing market's robust performance is a result of multiple factors, including the ongoing effects of policy easing and increased supply in the market [8][9] - The supply of new residential units in Beijing reached over 5,000 in September, creating a peak supply period that supports the market's performance in October [8][9] - Analysts express optimism for the October market, anticipating continued growth and potential surpassing of September's performance due to new product launches and sustained buyer demand [9][10]

Group 1 - The recent policy report from the government does not present significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" have not been implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083), while the most favored landlords are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，新一份施政报告对与楼市而言没有太大惊喜，尽管已经提出 很多建议，但印花税减免和"购房通"均未落实，但这不太可能造成下行冲击，有媒体报道，这两项措施 均不会实施。唯一略微积极的宽松措施是放宽新的"资本投资者计划"(价值逾3000万港元的住宅单位现 在成为合资格投资)，这符合预期。 发展商方面，小摩的首选是恒基地产(00012)和信和置业(00083)。业主方面，最看好太古地产(01972)和 恒隆地产(00101)，其次是九龙仓置业(01997)和领展房产基金(00823)。 施政报告后，本港地产股股价反应平淡，9月17日相关板块表现落后恒生指数2%。尽管施政报告并未推 出强有力的宽松政策，但小摩认为房地产市场仍有可能在2025年下半年稳定，2026年楼价有望升3- 5%。 ...