Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing "fuzzy correctness" over "precise errors" in investment strategies, particularly in the context of a bull market, where maintaining a long-term perspective and avoiding over-trading can lead to better outcomes [4][19]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - "Fuzzy correctness" is defined as a rational strategy based on common sense and probability, focusing on long-term value rather than precise timing or predictions [8][19]. - Investors should prioritize understanding the fundamental value of companies and avoid chasing speculative stocks, instead focusing on businesses with strong long-term prospects and competitive advantages [8][9]. - The article argues that the market is inherently uncertain, and attempts to eliminate this uncertainty through precise methods often lead to cognitive errors [4][14]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Short-term stock price fluctuations are primarily driven by investor emotions, capital flows, and noise, making them unpredictable [5][14]. - Historical data shows that high-frequency trading often results in poor long-term performance, as these strategies incur high transaction costs and fail to outperform simple index investments [6][15]. - The article highlights that during bull markets, frequent trading in an attempt to capture every price movement can lead to missing out on significant upward trends [10][20]. Group 3: Decision-Making Strategies - Investors should adopt a "relative high and low" approach to buying and selling, rather than trying to time the market perfectly [9][10]. - Maintaining a diversified portfolio and controlling position sizes can mitigate risks associated with individual stock predictions [11][19]. - The article suggests that patience and a long-term view are more critical than short-term precision, as time can correct initial investment errors [17][18]. Group 4: Long-Term Perspective - The philosophy of "fuzzy correctness" aligns with a long-term investment approach, where the focus is on holding quality assets over time to benefit from compounding returns [17][18]. - The article warns that "precise errors" can amplify risks and lead to significant losses, particularly through over-trading and emotional decision-making [15][18]. - Ultimately, successful investing is about consistently making decisions that are "largely correct" rather than striving for perfect predictions [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing "fuzzy correctness" over "precise errors" in investment strategies, particularly in the context of a bull market, where maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial for success [4][19][21]. Group 1: Short-term Market Randomness - Stock price fluctuations in the short term are primarily driven by investor emotions, capital flows, and information noise, making them highly random and unpredictable [6][16]. - Investors often fall into the trap of seeking precise predictions through technical indicators, which can lead to overconfidence and frequent trading, ultimately resulting in poor performance [7][8][17]. Group 2: Fuzzy Correctness - "Fuzzy correctness" is defined as a rational investment strategy based on common sense and probability, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term precision [10][11]. - Investors should prioritize fundamental analysis and avoid chasing speculative stocks, instead concentrating on companies with strong long-term prospects and competitive advantages [10][12]. Group 3: Precision Errors - The pursuit of precision in investment often leads to overfitting models to historical data, which can fail in changing market conditions [15][16]. - Frequent trading and attempts to time the market can amplify risks and lead to significant losses, as evidenced by the poor performance of high-frequency trading accounts in the A-share market [8][17][20]. Group 4: Long-term Perspective - Embracing "fuzzy correctness" aligns with a long-term investment philosophy, where patience and discipline are more valuable than short-term gains [19][20]. - The article illustrates that even if investors make minor errors in stock selection or timing, the long-term growth of fundamentally sound companies can compensate for these mistakes [19][20]. Group 5: Practical Investment Principles - Investors are encouraged to focus on fundamental analysis, avoid the obsession with precision, diversify their holdings, and adopt a long-term holding strategy to maximize returns [21][22].