1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the rubber market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is in the up - volume period, but the up - volume is slower year - on - year due to rainfall. Raw material prices are relatively firm, and processing profits are neutral. Rubber inventory in China is decreasing, and light - colored rubber inventory is at a low level. On the demand side, the output of rubber tire casings in China decreased year - on - year in July, factory profits declined significantly under over - capacity, and there is still pressure to digest semi - steel tire inventory. In the long - term, the big - cycle inflection point of rubber supply has arrived. The decline in the growth rate of tapping area and the aging of rubber trees restrict the growth of rubber production, and this factor will deepen year by year. Strategically, rubber can be a multi - allocation variety for the year, especially in years or periods with abnormal weather [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Impact of Tapping Area and Tree Aging on Rubber Production - As of 2024, the ANPRC tapping area was 97.43 million hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.02%, and the growth rate was negative for the first time. The growth rate of the tapping area in 2025 is expected to be - 0.71% (calculated based on 6 - year tapping) and - 0.76% (calculated based on 7 - year tapping), and the decline rate will expand. The growth rate of the tapping area is expected to be negative from 2025 - 2030 [4] - The proportion of 8 - 12 - year - old rubber trees is decreasing year by year, showing an aging trend. The proportion was 33.6% in 2022, 31.02% in 2023, 27.93% in 2024, and is expected to drop to 22% in 2025 and below 20% after 2026 [5] - Affected by the above factors, the growth rate of natural rubber production has slowed down. In July, the global natural rubber production is expected to drop 0.1% to 1.246 million tons. Thailand's rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase 1.2% to 14.89 million tons due to good weather and increased per - mu yield [5] - The actual production growth rate of traditional rubber - producing countries has declined compared with 2023. For example, Thailand's production from January to June 2025 was 1.964 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83% but a 6.58% decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Indonesia's production from January to June 2025 was 1.176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% and a 25% decrease compared with 2023. Vietnam's production from January to June 2025 was 352,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.12%. The production of emerging rubber - producing countries, such as Cote d'Ivoire, has shown good growth. In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume increased 14.3% year - on - year [6] 3.2. Impact of Imports on Rubber Inventory in China - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. From January to July, the total import volume was 4.709 million tons, a 20.8% increase compared with the same period in 2024. The expected import volume in August is still high due to the approaching peak production season in Southeast Asia and the continuous impact of the zero - tariff policy [7] - The social inventory of natural rubber in China has been decreasing since April, but large imports have inhibited the de - stocking speed. As of August 31, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.265 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 796,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. The inventory of light - colored rubber has dropped to a low level in the past three years [8] 3.3. Rubber Consumption Situation - The output of rubber tire casings in China has declined for three consecutive months. In July 2025, the output was 94.364 million pieces, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the output increased 0.7% year - on - year to 686.115 million pieces [9] - In the tire consumption field, the supporting tire consumption is good. In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The supporting demand for tires is expected to be 79.07 million pieces for passenger cars and 16.786 million pieces for commercial vehicles from January to July 2025 [9] - The growth rate of the tire export market has slowed down. In the first 7 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume was 416 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, lower than the growth rate in 2024. The reasons include pressure in the European and Asian markets. In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and China's tire re - export to the Asian market was blocked due to tariff issues [10] - The tire replacement market is under pressure. The new housing construction area has a negative growth, and the PM1 data shows that China's economic vitality needs to be improved. The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires are relatively low, and there is still a need to further reduce tire inventory [11]