9—11月，全球天然橡胶将进入增产季。ANRPC预测，2025年全球天然橡胶产量同比微增0.5%，至 1489.2万吨，泰国、中国等主产国贡献主要增量。供应端对天然橡胶价格的影响主要有三点： 一是主产区增产预期。东南亚主产区物候条件改善，若无极端天气干扰，后期产量将呈现季节性抬升趋 势。不过，地缘政治因素导致泰国部分割胶区域受到劳动力短缺的影响，同时四季度的天气状况仍然充 满不确定性，对产量形成扰动。 二是政策扰动。国储收储、关税调整将影响供应格局。根据海关总署数据，2025年7月，中国进口天然 及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计63.4万吨，较2024年同期的61.3万吨增长3.4%；前7个月累计进口量为470.9 万吨，较2024年同期的389.7万吨增加20.8%。 8月4日以来，天然橡胶期货2601合约震荡上行，8月19日最高触及16020元／吨。截至8月25日收盘，天 然橡胶期货2601合约报15905元／吨。 受美国关税政策反复及欧盟反倾销调查拖累，轮胎出口"抢跑"效应减弱。若欧盟反倾销初裁落地，预计 影响中国对欧轮胎出口量的比例在10%～15%，间接拖累天然橡胶需求。海关总署数据显示，1—7月橡 胶轮胎出 ...

化工日报 | 2025-08-21 天然橡胶社会库存环比小幅回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15675元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨；NR主力合约12525元/吨，较前一日变动-165 元/吨；BR主力合约11715元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14750元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14530元/吨，较前一 日变动-120元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1795美元/吨，较前一日变动-15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1745 美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11500元/吨，较前一日变动-250元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年7月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量47.48万吨，环比增加 2.47%，同比减少1.91%，2025年1-7月累计进口数量360.05万吨，累计同比增加21.82%。 2025年前7个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计908,487吨，较2024年同期的7 ...

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 19, cup rubber is priced at 49.80 THB/kg (+0.35), and latex is at 54.70 THB/kg (+0.50) [1] - In Yunnan, the purchase price for rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton (+100), while fresh latex in Hainan is 14,000 CNY/ton (0) [1] - In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, Thai standard rubber is priced at 1,810 USD/ton (+10), and Thai mixed rubber is at 14,650 CNY/ton (+50) [1] Tire Production and Inventory - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 69.11%, down 0.60 percentage points month-on-month and down 10.55 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 62.62%, up 2.56 percentage points month-on-month and up 3.69 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tires is 46.73 days, up 0.28 days month-on-month and up 9.73 days year-on-year; for all-steel tires, it is 39.51 days, up 0.14 days month-on-month and down 3.83 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with an export value of 99.2 billion CNY, also up 5.4% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 5.42 million tons, with an export value of 95.3 billion CNY, both showing a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 4.8 million tons, with an export value of 81.9 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [2] Market Dynamics - On the supply side, rainfall in production areas may disrupt the release of new rubber, keeping raw material prices firm [2] - Demand remains generally stable, with some agents replenishing stock as needed, leading to cautious inventory control [2] - The market currently lacks clear directional guidance, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range of 15,000 to 16,500 CNY, depending on the raw material supply during the peak production period [2]

Group 1 - Shandong Dongcai New Materials Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 20 million yuan, co-funded by Shandong Wanda Chemical Co., Ltd. and Shandong Naisite Carbon Black Co., Ltd., with Wanda Chemical holding 99% of the shares [1] - The establishment of Dongcai New Materials marks Wanda Chemical's strategic move to extend its new materials industry chain, focusing on high-value areas such as new material technology research and development, big data services, and technology import and export [1][2] - Naisite has been recognized as a "Little Giant" enterprise in the carbon black industry for 2024, developing multiple carbon black products that meet the demands of new energy vehicle tires for high conductivity and low rolling resistance [1] Group 2 - Wanda Chemical has been exploring high-end carbon black product development and production, establishing a comprehensive R&D system covering general, specialty, and pigment carbon blacks [2] - The rubber tire industry in Dongying City has formed a complete industrial system centered on rubber tires, but faces challenges such as low cluster development levels and insufficient collaboration among enterprises [2] - The Dongying City Rubber Tire Industry Development Plan (2024-2028) aims to enhance industry concentration and optimize the supply chain, targeting an industry revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan and positioning several local companies among the top 75 global tire manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Dongcai New Materials is expected to leverage Wanda Chemical's foundational product production capabilities to focus on high-performance and functional transformation of basic materials, providing customized solutions for industry enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The new trade agreement between the US and EU is expected to significantly reduce global exports to the US, with a predicted decline of over 46% by 2027, equating to a decrease of $2.68 trillion [1] - The US is projected to increase its exports globally by 12% by 2027, amounting to an increase of $1.59 trillion [1] - The tariff simulator developed by Datawheel indicates that the trade dynamics will shift, with countries likely to restructure their trade relationships away from the US, except for Mexico and Canada due to their close ties [2] Group 2 - Under the 15% tariff scenario, Germany's exports to the US are expected to rise from $133 billion in 2023 to $149 billion by 2027, a smaller increase compared to a no-tariff scenario where exports would reach $155 billion [2] - The US is expected to import more goods from the UK ($22.5 billion), France ($10.2 billion), and Spain ($5.65 billion), while imports from China ($-485 billion), Canada ($-300 billion), and Mexico ($-238 billion) will decrease [2] - China is projected to see a reduction of $101 billion in imports from the US, while increasing imports from Russia ($70 billion), Vietnam ($34.4 billion), and Saudi Arabia ($28 billion) [3] Group 3 - The imposition of tariffs is anticipated to raise the prices of imported goods, leading to reduced shipment volumes and a more limited variety of products available to US consumers [3] - High-value product orders, such as construction and aerospace equipment, are being paused as companies await final tariff determinations [3] - IKEA is the largest company importing goods into the US from the EU, accounting for 28% of imports, followed by Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits (9%) and Continental Tire (4%) [3][4] Group 4 - The leading export categories from the EU to the US include furniture (11%), rubber tires (7%), bed covers (6%), and wine (5%) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward with a large increase. In the future, the rubber market may be affected by factors such as the conflict on the Thai - Cambodian border, weather disturbances in the main production areas, and changes in supply and demand. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback [8][89]. - Key factors to watch include changes in domestic macro - sentiment, weather disturbances in the main rubber production areas, changes in terminal demand, progress of the zero - tariff policy, the latest progress of the EU anti - dumping investigation, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [9][89]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber futures, RU2509, ranged from 14,780 to 15,665 yuan/ton, showing a significant upward trend. As of July 25, 2025, it closed at 15,585 yuan/ton, up 775 points or 5.23% for the week [6][14]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; and the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [19]. - The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,320 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis expanded significantly last week. As of July 25, 2025, the basis was - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - As of July 25, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased compared to the previous week, with a larger increase in the domestic market [30]. 3.2 Important Market Information - There were international events such as the conflict on the Thai - Cambodian border on July 24, which led to concerns about rubber supply; statements from US political and financial figures regarding interest rates, trade agreements, and tariffs; and economic data from the US, the eurozone, and China, as well as the performance of the global and EU auto markets [32][33][35]. 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the production of main natural rubber - producing countries increased. The total production in May 2025 was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month [43]. - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 4,231,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [48][52]. - As of June 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [56]. 3.4 Demand - side Situation - As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 75.99%, down 0.12% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.02%, down 0.08% from the previous week [58]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%; monthly sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.83% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12% [61][64]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 97,864 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.14% and a month - on - month increase of 10.25% [70]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [73]. - As of June 30, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [78]. 3.5 Inventory - side Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,020 tons, a decrease of 4,620 tons from the previous week [87]. - As of July 20, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons or 0.47% from the previous period. The social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 0.23%, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,000 tons, a decrease of 0.85%. The combined inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons or 0.28% from the previous period [87]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber supply is entering an increasing period. Recent weather disturbances in domestic and foreign main production areas have supported raw material prices, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply. In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 27.2% year - on - year [88]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises slightly decreased, downstream sales were sluggish, and inventory increased slowly. In June, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - truck sales also increased significantly. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Consumption - boosting policies are continuously being introduced [88]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [88]. 3.7后市展望 - The rubber market may be affected by the Thai - Cambodian border conflict, weather in the production areas, and supply - demand changes. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback [8][89]. - Key factors to watch include domestic macro - sentiment, weather in production areas, terminal demand, zero - tariff policy, EU anti - dumping investigation, and Sino - US tariffs [9][89]. 3.8 Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish trading strategy and take profits on long positions when the price is high [10][90].

Group 1 - The main contract for 20 rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 13,280.00 yuan, with a current price of 13,270.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.51% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future price trends of rubber, with expectations of price adjustments and potential declines in the short term [1][2] Group 2 - Shenyin Wanguo Futures predicts that the short-term rubber price will experience fluctuations due to ongoing rainfall affecting rubber tapping and a weak demand side during the off-peak consumption season [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a possible price correction in the short term, citing difficulties in reducing finished product inventories and weak consumption related to exports [1][2] - China’s tire production statistics show a mixed performance, with full steel tire operating rates increasing significantly while semi-steel tire rates have slightly decreased, indicating a complex demand landscape [2] - The export of rubber tires from China has seen a decline, with a 6.9% drop in June, raising concerns about future trade risks, particularly with major markets like the EU and the US [2]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market has experienced a rebound driven by multiple positive factors, with the main contract reaching a two-month high of 15,000 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of over 10% since early June [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - In July, there were signs of easing global trade tensions, contributing to a rebound in commodity prices and improving sentiment in the rubber sector [2] - The Chinese government is set to release growth stabilization plans for key industries, which is expected to enhance structural adjustments and supply quality, further supporting the rubber market [2] Group 2: Supply Factors - Seasonal production increases in natural rubber are being impacted by heavy rainfall due to Typhoon "Vipa," which is expected to hinder short-term rubber tapping activities, leading to a temporary tightening of supply [3] - The Central Meteorological Administration forecasts significant rainfall in major rubber-producing regions, which may further restrict supply and support price increases [3] Group 3: Import and Inventory Trends - In June 2025, China imported 59.9 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a 27.2% increase from the previous year, with a total of 407.5 million tons imported in the first half of 2025, marking a 24.1% rise year-on-year [4] - Despite the increase in imports, domestic tire demand remains limited, leading to a seasonal rise in natural rubber inventory, which may constrain short-term price rebounds [4] Group 4: Automotive Industry Performance - The automotive sector in China has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with production and sales increasing by 12.5% and 11.4% respectively, supported by policies encouraging vehicle upgrades [5] - The heavy truck market also demonstrated resilience, with sales increasing by approximately 29% year-on-year, indicating robust demand [5] Group 5: Tire Production and Export Trends - The utilization rates of domestic semi-steel and all-steel tire production facilities have increased, with semi-steel tire utilization rising to 68.13% and all-steel tire utilization reaching 61.98% [6] - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 4.71 million tons, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, although future growth may slow due to earlier demand being met [6][7] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current optimistic market sentiment is supported by macroeconomic policies and supply constraints, which may sustain natural rubber price increases in the short term [7] - However, limited demand growth and proximity to previous price peaks may restrict further price rebounds in the future [7]

1. Investment Rating of the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on natural rubber this week is oscillating with a bullish bias. The supply release expectation has not been fulfilled due to weather disturbances in Thailand, and the raw material support is strong. The demand shows a benign and improving trend in the all - steel tire segment, while the semi - steel tire situation is just satisfactory. The short - term trading of natural rubber will revolve around weather and supply volume, and the macro - economic factors will also impact the market [81]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased, with the export volume reaching 471 tons, a 4.5% year - on - year increase, and the export value reaching 83.5 billion yuan, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease, and the production from January to June increased by 2% year - on - year to 591.668 million pieces [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 20% year - on - year to 112,595 tons, and the income decreased by 2.3% year - on - year to $208 million. However, domestic latex consumption increased by 92% to 53,361 tons. In the same period, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year to 751,672 tons [6]. - In the first half of 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 24.1% year - on - year to 4.075 million tons [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise, with the domestic market rising more. On July 18, 2025, the closing price of RU2509.SHF was 14,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.13%; the closing price of NR2509.SHF was 12,675 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.30%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 169.90 cents/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.23%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 324.40 yen/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.01% [11][12]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 18, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 8.38%; the RU09 - BR09 spread was 3,115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.25% [22][23]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeast is slightly lower, and the rainfall in the south has eased. In China, Hainan and Yunnan have experienced more rainfall recently, with rainfall in Hainan decreasing month - on - month [42][44]. - Due to the rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas, the short - term supply has been disrupted, and the price of Thai cup lump has risen significantly, with strong upstream cost support. On July 18, 2025, the price of Thai cup lump was 48.60 baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [48][49]. - The Thai water - cup spread and the spread of Hainan latex for concentrated latex factory - for whole - milk factory decreased. On July 18, 2025, the Thai water - cup spread was 5.90 baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.23% [56][57]. - The processing profits of Thai standard rubber and concentrated latex recovered, the processing profit of Hainan concentrated latex improved, and the profit of Thai smoked sheets decreased. On July 18, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 42 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.42% [59][60]. - In May 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [63][64]. 3.3.2 Demand - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.56%; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.42%. The inventory days of all - steel tires were 40.85 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44%; the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.92% [67][68]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained a good year - on - year performance. In June 2025, the sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow at a high rate, and in May 2025, the sales volume of heavy trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [71][72]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2952 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.81%; the inventory of light - colored rubber was 497,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [73]. - On July 18, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 186,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%; the futures and spot inventory was 212,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.32% [77][78].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese tire industry is at a critical juncture, facing both challenges and opportunities, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality, new energy, and smart manufacturing [2][3]. Industry Challenges - The tire industry is experiencing rapid growth but is hindered by low product prices and technology levels, with over 50% of companies reporting declining net profits despite revenue growth [3][4]. - The industry is facing three main challenges: the need for improved tire performance due to innovations in electric vehicle chassis, the pressure to adopt environmentally friendly materials and practices, and the disconnect between raw material research and end-user demand [4][5]. - The global market is imposing stricter green barriers, particularly from the EU, which is reshaping the competitive landscape for Chinese tire manufacturers [5][6]. Low-Carbon Development - The tire industry is under pressure to explore green and low-carbon development paths, especially as the carbon footprint management of vehicles becomes a priority [6][7]. - The Chinese government has shifted its focus from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, with a target to reduce carbon emissions by nearly 5% annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8]. Opportunities Amidst Challenges - The transition to low-carbon practices presents opportunities for the tire industry to innovate and improve efficiency, particularly in recycling and material usage [8][9]. - The industry is encouraged to adopt a three-step approach: eliminating outdated production capacity, implementing advanced energy-saving technologies, and developing disruptive innovative processes [9]. - The integration of new energy vehicles into the tire sector is seen as a key strategy for overcoming current challenges and achieving value transformation [9].