化工日报 | 2025-10-10 9月国内重卡销量继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15415元/吨，较前一日变动+385元/吨；NR主力合约12465元/吨，较前一日变动+365 元/吨；BR主力合约11325元/吨，较前一日变动+225元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14700元/吨，较前一日变动+350元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14850元/吨，较前 一日变动+250元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动+40美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1750美元/吨，较前一日变动+40美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价11250元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 据第一商用车网初步统计，2025年9月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10.5万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源）， 环比今年8月上涨15%，比上年同期的5.8万辆大幅增长约82%。 2025年8月中国天然橡胶及合成橡胶（包含胶乳）进口66.4万吨，环比上涨4.73%，同比增长7.79%。 2025年1-8月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [7]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with the reduction of rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, raw material prices are expected to decline, weakening cost - side support. As the domestic holiday approaches, downstream tire factories will enter a short - term maintenance period, and demand will decline. Overall, supply and demand are gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the news of a new round of state reserve sales is announced [7]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, upstream plants will still have maintenance in October, and the operating rate may first rise and then fall. The production volume will change little in the next two weeks. The overall operating rate this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the supply remains abundant. After the downstream raw material replenishment is completed, demand will remain stable. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream tire factories will have a short - term shutdown and resume production after the holiday. It is expected that the downstream will continue to be in a peak season, and the supply and demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be booming [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 90 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - **Import Data**: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2]. - **Export Data**: In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3]. - **Côte d'Ivoire Export Data**: In the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Côte d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3]. - **Automobile Market Data**: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a slight month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales volume of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [4]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On September 29, 2025, the RU basis was - 825 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 575 yuan/ton (- 45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,258 yuan/ton (- 33.81), the NR basis was 721.00 yuan/ton (- 78.00); the price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (- 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,000 yuan/ton (+ 250) [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.61 Thai baht/kg (- 0.27), the price of Thai glue was 54.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.55 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50) [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6]. - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 149,420 tons (- 5,500), and the NR futures inventory was 42,942 tons (- 1,611) [6]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On September 29, 2025, the BR basis was - 40 yuan/ton (+ 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,000 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,200 yuan/ton (- 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,749 yuan/ton (- 50) [6]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41% (- 3.31%) [6]. - **Inventories**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (- 2,120), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 700) [6]. Strategy - **RU and NR**: Maintain a neutral rating. With the reduction of rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, raw material prices are expected to decline, weakening cost - side support. As the domestic holiday approaches, downstream tire factories will enter a short - term maintenance period, and demand will decline. Overall, supply and demand are gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the news of a new round of state reserve sales is announced [7]. - **BR**: Maintain a neutral rating. Upstream plants will still have maintenance in October, and the operating rate may first rise and then fall. The production volume will change little in the next two weeks. The overall operating rate this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the supply remains abundant. After the downstream raw material replenishment is completed, demand will remain stable. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream tire factories will have a short - term shutdown and resume production after the holiday. It is expected that the downstream will continue to be in a peak season, and the supply and demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be booming [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [7] - BR is rated neutral [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost - side support for rubber remains. The news of state reserve sales has narrowed the price difference between RU and NR, suppressing futures prices in the short term. Before the end of September, rainfall in major producing areas may support rubber costs and limit the decline of rubber prices. The concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories is over, and with a slight increase in domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. The demand for downstream tires is in a seasonal peak, with an increase in tire factory operating rates and continuous raw material consumption, resulting in limited supply - demand contradictions. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the overall decline will be limited. For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply, and although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,570 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,545 yuan/ton, a change of + 25 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2] - Export: In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3] - Production and Sales of Automobiles: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7%, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] - Sales of Heavy - Duty Trucks: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [3] - Rubber Exports in Cote d'Ivoire: In the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price difference between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 20), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3230 yuan/ton (+ 55.38), the NR basis was 869.00 yuan/ton (+ 43.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 30), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the price difference between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (- 50); the price difference between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2750 yuan/ton (- 30) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.29 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai latex was 54.80 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), and the price difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.75 Thai baht/kg (- 0.75) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (- 25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 20), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1580 yuan/ton (- 41) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.41% (- 3.31%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (- 2,120), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 700) [6] 3. Strategy - For RU and NR, due to the narrowing of the price difference caused by the news of state reserve sales and the short - term suppression of futures prices, the cost - side support may limit the decline of rubber prices. After the end of the concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories and with a slight increase in arrivals, the inventory reduction will slow down. Although the demand is in a peak season, after the purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the decline is limited [7] - For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply. Although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [7]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 23, cup rubber is priced at 50.45 THB/kg (+0.10), while latex is at 55.30 THB/kg (-0.50) [1] - The acquisition price for Yunnan rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan private rubber water is 16,000 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard is 1,830 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed is 14,800 CNY/ton (-50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, up 0.13 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.92 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.02 days, up 0.08 days month-on-month and up 9.33 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 39.13 days, up 0.30 days month-on-month and down 5.47 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with an export value of 114.2 billion CNY, up 4.6% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 6.26 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, with an export value of 109.7 billion CNY, up 4.4% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with an export value of 94.4 billion CNY, up 4.1% [2] Market Dynamics - Supply expectations indicate a potential weakening of raw material prices, with cost support shifting from strong to weak; however, recent typhoon weather has raised concerns about short-term supply release [2] - Downstream tire manufacturers have largely completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slowdown in the inventory reduction pace of natural rubber [2] - Despite some enterprises facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, and some companies may adopt flexible production control to alleviate inventory pressure [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. With the supply peak season reducing the upward momentum of raw materials, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day is increasing. It is expected that RU will oscillate weakly [85][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the production was 795.467 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [5]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [5]. - The eight - department work plan aims for annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million in 2025, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [6]. - Nigeria aims to contribute at least 12% of the global rubber production [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets first rose and then fell. Japanese smoked sheets fell the most, followed by standard rubber. On September 19, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,535 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.80%; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,395 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% [9][11]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - As of September 19, 2025, the basis of whole - milk and RU01 was - 835 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread was 5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 125.00% [15]. - RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads decreased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased [17]. - The spreads of Thai mixed - RU01, Malaysian mixed - RU01, 3L - RU01, and African No. 10 rubber - RU01 were - 805 yuan/ton, - 855 yuan/ton, - 335 yuan/ton, and - 3,194.29 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 4.17%, 3.93%, 35.58%, and 0.62% [20][21][22]. - The spread of whole - milk - Thai mixed decreased, while the spread of 3L - Thai mixed increased [23]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the offer price of the imported rubber market declined. The mainstream offer price of the domestic natural rubber spot market decreased. The downstream of the substitute butadiene rubber market maintained a wait - and - see attitude and purchased at low prices [20][28]. 3.5 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased slightly, and the settled funds increased slightly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR continued to decline, and the settled funds continued to decline [31]. 3.6 Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region is slightly lower than the same period, and the rainfall in the northeastern region is at a seasonal high [36]. - In China, Yunnan and Hainan are still in the rainy season [38]. - Raw material prices are differentiated. The price of Thai cup lumps decreased, the price of Thai latex increased, and the price of Yunnan latex decreased [40]. - Thai rubber processing profits generally recovered, while Hainan concentrated latex profits were under pressure [49]. - In July, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a significant year - on - year decrease in standard rubber exports and a low year - on - year level in latex exports [52]. - In August, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to China continued to grow rapidly, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases in standard rubber and mixed rubber exports to China [58]. - In July, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased seasonally, with a high year - on - year level. The exports of standard rubber and latex to China increased significantly [62]. - In August, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high year - on - year level, and the exports to China were also at a high year - on - year level [66]. - In August, China imported 5.208 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [69]. 3.7 Demand - During the cycle, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. Tire inventory rebounded slightly. In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high year - on - year level. In July, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover month - on - month and year - on - year; in August, the sales volume of passenger cars increased month - on - month and year - on - year [72][75]. 3.8 Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to decline, with an expanded decline compared to the previous period. The futures inventory of RU decreased the most, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [78]. - As of September 19, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1.549 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.10%; the futures - spot inventory was 1.968 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.54% [82]. 3.9 This Week's View Summary - This week's view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. The upward momentum of raw materials weakens during the supply peak season, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day is increasing. It is expected that RU will oscillate weakly. The recommended strategies are to wait and see or take a short - selling approach on rallies for single - side trading, and to observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [85][86].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Synthetic rubber [1] - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of report: September 18, 2025 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, with supply, inventory, and cost factors influencing the market. Future price movements depend on pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 18, 2025, synthetic rubber fluctuated and declined. The BR2511 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton, reached a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,355 yuan/ton, and closed at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton or 1.76% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 116,100 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 74,500 lots, an increase of 7,604 lots [2] - **Variety price**: The BR2510 contract opened at 11,610 yuan/ton with a high of 11,660 yuan/ton; the BR2512 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton with a high of 11,590 yuan/ton; the BR2601 contract opened at 11,605 yuan/ton, closed at 11,440 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.59%, with a trading volume of 19,247 lots and an open interest of 22,233 lots [4] - **Spot price**: On September 18, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market decreased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Some arbitrage resources had lower prices, and the mainstream supply price was affected [5] 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry information**: As of September 17, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous period. However, trader inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and there is still pressure on total social inventory. Butadiene port inventory has dropped to 25,600 tons, but 50,000 tons of shipments are expected to arrive in October, weakening cost - side support [6] - **Policy and market dynamics**: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 18, China's rubber tire exports in August were 870,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase [6] 4.3 Market Outlook - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities. Although there are disruptions in the natural rubber tapping process due to rainfall and high raw material prices, the spot trading sentiment has weakened. Supply and inventory pressures dominate the market. The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, and future price movements need to pay attention to pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 18, cup rubber is priced at 51.05 THB/kg (down 0.60), while latex is at 56.30 THB/kg (up 0.10) [1] - The purchase price for Yunnan rubber water is 14,600 CNY/ton (down 200), and for Hainan private rubber water, it is 16,000 CNY/ton (down 100) [1] - Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard is priced at 1,830 USD/ton (down 30), and Thai mixed rubber is at 14,750 CNY/ton (down 250) [1] Tire Production and Inventory - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, up 0.13 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.92 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month, and up 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.02 days, up 0.08 days month-on-month, and up 9.33 days year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for all-steel tire sample enterprises is 39.13 days, up 0.30 days month-on-month, and down 5.47 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with an export value of 114.2 billion CNY, up 4.6% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 6.26 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, with an export value of 109.7 billion CNY, up 4.4% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with an export value of 94.4 billion CNY, up 4.1% [2] Market Outlook - Supply disruptions due to rainy seasons and typhoons are expected to limit further increases in raw material prices, with cost support weakening [2] - Despite some enterprises facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, leading to potential flexible production control by some companies [2] - The market sentiment is expected to weaken as the holiday approaches, with short-term rubber prices likely to fluctuate weakly within the range of 15,000 to 16,500 CNY [2]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's rubber tire exports, with a quantity of 910,000 tons in July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] - The export value reached $2.198 billion in July 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [1] Industry Analysis - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a robust performance in the rubber tire sector [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]

Report Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral [7]. - The rating for BR is neutral [7]. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with decreasing rainfall in major production areas, raw material prices may rise, weakening cost - side support. Despite average downstream demand, tire factory开工率 is expected to rebound this week as it's the traditional peak season. Port and social inventories are currently decreasing but may rise again after downstream stocking [7]. - For BR, some upstream devices are under maintenance, expected to reduce supply. With the rebound of tire factory开工率 and the peak - season effect, demand is expected to improve. The price may rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7]. Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1]. Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Thai 20 - standard rubber was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - standard rubber was 1,785 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information Import and Export - In August 2025, China imported 66.4 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 7.8% year - on - year. From January to August, the total import was 537.3 tons, up 19% year - on - year [2]. - In the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 1.05 million tons, up 14.4% year - on - year. In August, exports increased 14.8% year - on - year but decreased 8.9% month - on - month [2]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, down 1% month - on - month and up 35% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, up 13% year - on - year [2]. - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand exported 1.586 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), down 5% year - on - year. Among them, standard rubber exports were 919,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; smoked sheet rubber exports were 227,000 tons, up 25% year - on - year; latex exports were 431,000 tons, up 9% year - on - year [2]. - From January to July, Thailand exported 622,000 tons of natural rubber to China, up 7% year - on - year. Among them, standard rubber exports to China were 398,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; smoked sheet rubber exports to China were 65,000 tons, up 306% year - on - year; latex exports to China were 157,000 tons, up 65% year - on - year [3]. - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports were 5.63 million tons, up 5.4% year - on - year, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year. From January to July, automobile tire exports were 4.8 million tons, up 4.9% year - on - year, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the RU basis was - 880 yuan/ton (+10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 980 yuan/ton (+40), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,428 yuan/ton (+88.02), the NR basis was 538.00 yuan/ton (+30.00); whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton (+50), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,865 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (+0) [4]. Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.98 baht/kg (- 0.12), Thai latex was 56.00 baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 52.55 baht/kg (- 0.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.45 baht/kg (+0.40) [5]. 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and that of semi - steel tires was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [6]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,257,715 tons (- 7,183.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 592,275 tons (- 10,020), the RU futures inventory was 162,230 tons (- 16,410), and the NR futures inventory was 46,569 tons (+907) [6]. 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the BR basis was - 70 yuan/ton (- 130), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,350 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned顺丁橡胶 in Shandong was 11,580 yuan/ton (- 70), and the import profit of顺丁橡胶 in Northeast Asia was - 1,506 yuan/ton (- 50) [6]. 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis顺丁橡胶 was 76.16% (+0.31%) [6]. Inventory - The trade inventory of顺丁橡胶 was 8,210 tons (+950), and the enterprise inventory of顺丁橡胶 was 26,300 tons (+1,650) [6]. Strategy - For natural rubber, due to the expected increase in raw material prices in major production areas, the cost - side support will weaken. Although downstream demand is average, with the rebound of tire factory开工率 in the peak season, demand is expected to improve. Port and social inventories are currently decreasing but may rise after downstream stocking [7]. - For BR, with some upstream device maintenance, supply is expected to decrease. With the rebound of tire factory开工率 in the peak season, demand is expected to improve. The price may rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the rubber market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is in the up - volume period, but the up - volume is slower year - on - year due to rainfall. Raw material prices are relatively firm, and processing profits are neutral. Rubber inventory in China is decreasing, and light - colored rubber inventory is at a low level. On the demand side, the output of rubber tire casings in China decreased year - on - year in July, factory profits declined significantly under over - capacity, and there is still pressure to digest semi - steel tire inventory. In the long - term, the big - cycle inflection point of rubber supply has arrived. The decline in the growth rate of tapping area and the aging of rubber trees restrict the growth of rubber production, and this factor will deepen year by year. Strategically, rubber can be a multi - allocation variety for the year, especially in years or periods with abnormal weather [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Impact of Tapping Area and Tree Aging on Rubber Production - As of 2024, the ANPRC tapping area was 97.43 million hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.02%, and the growth rate was negative for the first time. The growth rate of the tapping area in 2025 is expected to be - 0.71% (calculated based on 6 - year tapping) and - 0.76% (calculated based on 7 - year tapping), and the decline rate will expand. The growth rate of the tapping area is expected to be negative from 2025 - 2030 [4] - The proportion of 8 - 12 - year - old rubber trees is decreasing year by year, showing an aging trend. The proportion was 33.6% in 2022, 31.02% in 2023, 27.93% in 2024, and is expected to drop to 22% in 2025 and below 20% after 2026 [5] - Affected by the above factors, the growth rate of natural rubber production has slowed down. In July, the global natural rubber production is expected to drop 0.1% to 1.246 million tons. Thailand's rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase 1.2% to 14.89 million tons due to good weather and increased per - mu yield [5] - The actual production growth rate of traditional rubber - producing countries has declined compared with 2023. For example, Thailand's production from January to June 2025 was 1.964 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83% but a 6.58% decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Indonesia's production from January to June 2025 was 1.176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% and a 25% decrease compared with 2023. Vietnam's production from January to June 2025 was 352,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.12%. The production of emerging rubber - producing countries, such as Cote d'Ivoire, has shown good growth. In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume increased 14.3% year - on - year [6] 3.2. Impact of Imports on Rubber Inventory in China - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. From January to July, the total import volume was 4.709 million tons, a 20.8% increase compared with the same period in 2024. The expected import volume in August is still high due to the approaching peak production season in Southeast Asia and the continuous impact of the zero - tariff policy [7] - The social inventory of natural rubber in China has been decreasing since April, but large imports have inhibited the de - stocking speed. As of August 31, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.265 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 796,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. The inventory of light - colored rubber has dropped to a low level in the past three years [8] 3.3. Rubber Consumption Situation - The output of rubber tire casings in China has declined for three consecutive months. In July 2025, the output was 94.364 million pieces, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the output increased 0.7% year - on - year to 686.115 million pieces [9] - In the tire consumption field, the supporting tire consumption is good. In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The supporting demand for tires is expected to be 79.07 million pieces for passenger cars and 16.786 million pieces for commercial vehicles from January to July 2025 [9] - The growth rate of the tire export market has slowed down. In the first 7 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume was 416 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, lower than the growth rate in 2024. The reasons include pressure in the European and Asian markets. In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and China's tire re - export to the Asian market was blocked due to tariff issues [10] - The tire replacement market is under pressure. The new housing construction area has a negative growth, and the PM1 data shows that China's economic vitality needs to be improved. The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires are relatively low, and there is still a need to further reduce tire inventory [11]