研究报告 橡胶周报 供需矛盾并不明显，盘面或将维持震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 15125-15580 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 期货价格震荡运行，总体微幅上涨。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 15240 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.16%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡运行，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 展望后市，宏观方面，受非农数据影响，美联储降息预期 减弱，影响商品情绪。从基本面来看，供给方面，橡胶成本端 存在支撑。10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中 国累计进口天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企 业开工率较上周均有下降，全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终 端车市方面， ...

转自：期货日报 今年以来，丁二烯、合成橡胶产能投放速度加快，我国轮胎企业成品库存偏高，全钢胎、半钢胎开工率低迷等因素，导致 合成橡胶市场承压运行。 四季度仍有新产能投放 近年来，随着恒力石化、浙石化、中科炼化、海南炼化、盛虹炼化、中石油广东炼化等炼化一体化装置陆续投产，中国丁 二烯行业进入高速扩能期。今年国内丁二烯产能投放较为集中。据隆众资讯数据，截至目前，中国丁二烯总产能达到757.7 万吨／年，较上年增长14.16%。今年国内新增装置5套，产能合计105万吨／年，剔除11万吨／年的退出产能，年内产能净 增量为94万吨／年。其中，中国石油天然气有限公司广西石化分公司18万吨新产能计划在11月份投产。丁二烯供应量及增 速偏高。近期，丁二烯装置有部分处于检修状态，也有一些装置完成检修后开工或新装置投产，整体开工情况较为复杂， 市场供应较为充裕。 2025年中国合成橡胶产能呈现显著扩张，全年总产能预计将突破800万吨，占全球总量的32%。已投产的产能包括：年初裕 龙石化15万吨／年镍系／钕系顺丁橡胶装置顺利投产并已达产；浙江石化一套10万吨／年装置于3月建成投产；传化合成材 料12万吨／年新产能于2024年下半年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral view on the natural rubber industry in the medium to long term [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the downstream automotive supporting production, sales, and exports are performing well, and the downstream operating rate is stable. The decline in rubber prices can drive manufacturers' rigid - demand purchases, providing effective support for the lower limit of rubber prices. However, the industrial chain inventory pressure is significant, leading to average downstream trading willingness, limited domestic demand growth, and existing export obstacles. In the medium to long term, the global total production capacity cycle has not fully reached its peak, and the supply pressure will increase. The stable demand expectation requires continuous macro - level benefits and actual implementation. The export growth, although resilient, still faces risks and challenges such as international situations and trade barriers [1][2] - In the future, rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. In the short term, the valuation may increase with market fluctuations. The report suggests different trading strategies based on price trends and market conditions [1][14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The downstream automotive supporting production, sales, and exports are good, and the operating rate is stable. The decline in rubber prices can drive rigid - demand purchases, providing support for the lower limit of rubber prices. However, the industrial chain inventory pressure is large, domestic demand growth is limited, and export obstacles exist. The market expects an increase in natural rubber supply, and the abundant supply and weak cost of synthetic rubber drag down the overall valuation of the rubber system [1] - In the medium to long term, the global production capacity cycle has not peaked, and the supply pressure will increase. Stable demand requires continuous macro - level benefits. The export growth faces risks from international situations and trade barriers [2] 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range and Trend Judgement**: The short - term reference oscillation range for RU2601 is 14900 - 15300, and for NR2511 is 12000 - 12400. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with short - term sentiment possibly warming up, but the pressure from the weak supply - demand expectation still exists [14] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the short - term, take a bullish view with a focus on upper pressure levels. Consider hedging strategies such as combining protective options or using a long - volatility strategy. Hold the RU spot - futures positive arbitrage and pay attention to warehouse receipt changes. For NR, pay attention to high - level reverse arbitrage opportunities. For the 01 combination of the depth - difference spread, adopt a strategy of expanding the spread when the price is low [15] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14800 - 15700, and for 20 - grade rubber NR is 11900 - 12700 [18] - **Risk Management Strategy**: For inventory management, adopt strategies such as shorting rubber futures, buying out - of - the - money put options, and selling call options. For procurement management, consider buying rubber far - month futures, buying out - of - the - money call options, and selling put options [18] 3.2 Important Information and Focus Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: In October, the CPI and core CPI showed positive changes. The auto consumption index was high, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks and new - energy passenger vehicles increased. There were favorable weather conditions and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations [20][21] - **Negative Information**: The EU launched an anti - subsidy investigation on Chinese tires. The rubber production in Thailand is expected to increase, and China's rubber imports increased. There were declines in the European replacement tire market and some negative macro - economic factors [22][24] 3.2.2 This Week's Focus Points - Pay attention to rainfall in rubber - producing areas and its impact on raw material supply, changes in dry - rubber imports and exports and social inventory, downstream tire export data and operating rate, and important macro - economic data and events [26] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, rubber prices stabilized and rebounded after falling to the lower limit of the range. RU01 stabilized around 15000, and NR01 returned to around 12000. RU positions increased steadily, and NR positions rebounded slightly [28] - **Capital Movement**: In terms of profitable positions on the disk, the long and short positions of RU were stable, while the short positions of NR made more profits with a decrease in positions [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: Last Friday, spot prices generally declined, with relatively large declines in whole - milk, Indian - standard, and Vietnamese No. 10 standard rubber [35] - **Term Structure Analysis**: - **Basis Changes**: Last week, the overall center of gravity of RU shifted downward, and the near - term contracts strengthened relatively. The 11 - 01 spread continued positive arbitrage. NR prices fell, and the back structure deepened [48][49] - **Month - spread Structure**: The Tocom RSS3 price decline led to a weakening of near - month contracts, and the C structure deepened. The Singapore TRES20 rubber price slightly increased, and the structure was flat [56] - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between RU and Japanese smoked - sheet rubber futures narrowed, and the spread between NR and Singapore standard rubber oscillated and narrowed [59] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Recently, the rubber market sentiment has fluctuated greatly, with a neutral sentiment last week. The downstream tire demand sentiment slightly improved. Currently, the RU warehouse receipts are low, and the virtual - to - physical ratio continues to rise, while the NR virtual - to - physical ratio has decreased compared to the previous period [64][65] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: - **Dry - rubber Spot Spread**: Last week, the depth - difference spread steadily widened, and the relative valuation of whole - milk rubber was further repaired. The supply pressure of standard products may increase in the future, and attention should be paid to domestic weather and downstream production and sales [66] - **Natural and Synthetic Rubber Spread**: Last week, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased, while the operating rates of butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber recovered. The supply pressure of synthetic rubber was strong, and the spread between natural and synthetic rubber remained high [70] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: Last week, rain in Hainan and southern Thailand affected raw material prices, with prices remaining firm in Hainan and southern Thailand, and weakening in Yunnan. The water - cup price difference in Thailand rebounded [72] - **Processing Profit**: The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber was similar to last week, and the profit of TSR9710 slightly declined. The import profit of Thai smoked - sheet rubber was flat, while the profits of Thai standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased and then slightly recovered [81][83] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Main Producing Countries**: The natural rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, China, and India shows seasonal characteristics [86] - **Import Situation**: In October, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [87] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Main Producing Countries**: In September, except for India, the total demand in main producing countries decreased month - on - month. The consumption in Malaysia and Indonesia in September was higher than the same period, but the cumulative volume remained low [90] - **Tire Production and Sales**: Last week, the operating rate of most tire enterprises returned to normal. The sales of all - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends, and tire exports were resilient but faced challenges such as EU anti - subsidy investigations [93] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable this year, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [98] - **Supporting Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic passenger car sales have been strong, and commercial vehicle sales have also increased year - on - year. Automobile exports have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [100][102] - **Supporting Demand - Heavy - duty Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The production of heavy - duty trucks has increased this year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of construction machinery's domestic sales and exports is 11.24%. In the long term, the growth of new demand for trucks may be limited [107] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has been stable this year, and Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [109] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite a decline in auto sales. European passenger car production and sales are stable, while commercial vehicle production has decreased significantly. The production and export of Japanese and South Korean automobiles show different trends [111] - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: In October, the operating rate of domestic conveyor belts decreased to a five - year low, while the operating rate of rubber hoses was relatively good year - on - year [127] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: Affected by weather, RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased due to stable rubber imports and high downstream wait - and - see sentiment [130] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory [132]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure from domestic raw material production increases and lackluster demand. Tire companies face shipment pressure, with under - performing foreign trade orders. In November, some companies plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the overall capacity utilization rate. Key factors to track include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [2][28] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The synthetic rubber market showed a weak trend. The 01 contract opened at 11,125 yuan/ton in October, reached a high of 11,285 yuan/ton, a low of 10,175 yuan/ton, and closed at 10,550 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 560 yuan or 5.04% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price - Influencing Factors 2.1 Butadiene Capacity Expansion - From 2021 - 2025, China's butadiene capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with the growth rate first decreasing and then increasing. In 2025, domestic capacity expansion is concentrated, with the capacity growth rate reaching 14.16%, a five - year high. By the end of 2025, China's total butadiene capacity will reach 7.577 million tons/year [5][6] 2.2 High Butadiene Operating Rate and Import Growth - In October, butadiene production was 457,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.49%. From January to October, production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 66.48%. In September 2025, butadiene imports were 56,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.09%. From January to September, imports were 393,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.8% [7][8][10] 2.3 High Growth in Butadiene Imports - The import volume of butadiene has been growing rapidly, as shown by the data from January - September and September 2025 [10] 2.4 Pressure on Butadiene Prices and Profits - The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly this period, with a 1.67% week - on - week decrease. The theoretical production profits of different butadiene production processes decreased. As of October 29, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 1,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 578 yuan/ton from the previous period [13] 2.5 Sufficient Synthetic Rubber Capacity Expansion and High Production Growth - New synthetic rubber capacities have been put into production, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 tons/year nickel/neodymium - based cis - butadiene rubber capacity and Zhejiang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton device. In September, synthetic rubber production was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.50%. From January to September, production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.20% [15][17] 2.6 High Growth in Imports of Natural and Synthetic Rubber (Including Latex) - In September 2025, China imported 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, imports were 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase year - on - year [19] 2.7 Tire Production Growth Slows - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, production was 899.386 million pieces, a 1.5% increase year - on - year, far lower than the 9.59% growth rate in 2024. The export market growth rate declined, and the replacement market performed poorly [22][25] 2.8 Tire Inventory Needs to be Reduced and Operating Rate Increase is Limited - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Tire finished - product inventory needs to be reduced [26] 2.9 Weak Supply - Demand Drivers and Synchronous Decline of Raw Materials and Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Due to weak supply - demand drivers, raw materials and cis - butadiene rubber prices declined synchronously, with butadiene having a larger and faster decline [27] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure on the raw material side and lack of demand - side support. Key factors to monitor include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the EU's trade protectionism against Chinese products is intensifying, leading to a high-sensitivity global export environment, with measures expanding in scope, duration, and regulatory detail [1][2][3] - As of October 2025, the EU has implemented 56 anti-dumping and countervailing measures against Chinese goods, amounting to over €46 billion, affecting key industries such as rubber, steel, chemicals, and new energy batteries [1] - The average anti-dumping tax rate ranges from 30% to 70%, with some products exceeding 100%, significantly undermining the price advantage of Chinese manufacturing [1] Group 2 - Southeast Asia is emerging as a new trade hub, with re-export trade growth projected at 43% between 2024 and 2025, with Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam accounting for 68% of this growth [5][6] - Chinese-manufactured goods represent 39% of Southeast Asia's total re-export value, indicating that the region's re-export system is becoming a structural component of the global supply chain [5] Group 3 - The compliance aspect is becoming crucial in Southeast Asia's re-export system, moving away from gray-area practices to a more institutionalized and transparent framework [7] - The implementation of electronic origin certificate systems in regions like Port Klang, Malaysia, enhances operational legality and allows for tax optimization through compliance [7] Group 4 - The EU's trade protection measures are prompting a shift from concentrated exports to a distributed layout in supply chains, with a notable decrease in direct exports from China to the EU [9][10] - The proportion of Chinese exports to the EU directly has dropped from 17.6% to 12.3%, while re-exports via Southeast Asia have increased to 9.8%, with key products being chemicals (27%), electromechanical products (21%), and rubber and plastic products (19%) [10] Group 5 - Future trade barriers from the EU will likely focus on environmental, traceability, and social responsibility aspects, with digital origin traceability systems expected to be widely adopted [12][13] - Southeast Asian countries are adjusting their trade regulatory frameworks to align with EU green certifications and ESG standards, indicating a shift towards compliance and low-carbon management in re-export operations [12][13] Group 6 - The Southeast Asian re-export trade system is becoming a key hub for global manufacturing to navigate trade barriers, emphasizing the importance of compliance, digitalization, and regional collaboration [15] - The combination of compliant re-exports, digital traceability, and regional cooperation will enable Chinese manufacturing to gradually regain its foothold in the European market despite ongoing EU trade protections [15]

近一年中国橡胶轮胎出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国橡胶轮胎行业市场供需态势及发展前景研判报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年9月中国橡胶轮胎出口数量为79万吨，同比增长4.4%，出口金额为18.9 亿美元，同比增长0.9%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. Looking ahead, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. Overall, considering the weakening of the macro - and fundamental aspects and the seasonal inventory accumulation, it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term [8][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2601 of natural rubber futures fluctuated between 14,740 - 15,170 yuan/ton, first declining and then rising, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on November 7, 2025, it closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 90 points or 0.6% for the week [14]. 现货价格 - As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,400 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,030 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly last week. As of November 7, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 445 yuan/ton, narrowing 155 yuan/ton from last week [26]. Important Market Information - The US federal government's "shutdown" from October 1 to November 6 has broken the historical record, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. The increase in US ADP employment in October has added uncertainty to the Fed's December interest - rate cut. There are also mixed signals in the US employment situation, with different data showing different trends. The Fed's internal differences on interest - rate cuts are intensifying. High - frequency economic data such as the US ISM service and manufacturing PMIs have different performances. In addition, there are developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the performance of the new energy vehicle and traditional vehicle markets in China is also reported [30][31][33]. Supply - Side Situation - As of September 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's increased slightly, India's increased slightly, Vietnam's decreased slightly, and China's increased slightly. The total production in September 2025 was 1.0353 million tons, an increase of 48,300 tons or 4.89% from the previous month, with the growth rate continuing to decline slightly. The monthly production of synthetic rubber in China in September 2025 was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [39][44][48]. Demand - Side Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly production of tire casings increased slightly year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month. With the weather getting colder, there is an expectation of weakening demand [55][59][62]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of November 7, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 118,970 tons, down 1,930 tons from last week. As of November 2, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.056 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons or 1.6%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 3%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.4%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%, with the bonded area inventory decreasing by 0.58% and the general trade inventory increasing by 4.36% [83]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak supply season. The raw material prices in Yunnan are basically stable, and the rainfall in Hainan has limited improvement, affecting the tapping volume. The downstream factory procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the raw material prices are weakly stable. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased significantly year - on - year. - Demand side: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The overall inventory fluctuated slightly, with semi - steel tires continuously accumulating inventory and all - steel tires turning to inventory accumulation again. With the weather getting colder, the demand for all - steel tire replacement markets will weaken further, and the demand for semi - steel tires will also slow down. The automobile production and sales in September increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The tire export volume in September decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to September increased year - on - year. - Inventory side: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, with a relatively large increase in the general trade inventory in Qingdao [84][85]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. In the future, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to be followed include Sino - US trade relations, the progress of anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather disturbances and raw material output in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [86][87]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, use an interval - trading approach, and aggressive traders can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [88][89].

Group 1 - The EU has established a "special channel" for rare earth supply with China, but simultaneously initiated a countervailing investigation into Chinese rubber tires, highlighting the contradictions in its trade policy [1] - Since 2023, the EU has implemented several trade restrictions against China, including a 38.1% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a takeover of a Chinese semiconductor firm, and the recent tire investigation due to a 50% increase in tire exports from China at prices 65% lower than European products [1][2] - China plans to impose export controls on rare earths starting April 2025, with the EU heavily reliant on China for 65.5% of its rare earth supply, and Germany at 75%, leading to concerns over supply chain vulnerabilities [1][2] Group 2 - European automakers like Volkswagen and Renault are increasingly collaborating with Chinese firms to develop electric vehicles, despite the EU's hardline stance against China, indicating a disconnect between EU policy and industry needs [2] - The EU's approach reflects a double standard, as it compromises with the US while adopting similar trade measures against China, resulting in a loss of negotiation leverage, particularly in the context of recent US-China agreements on rare earth supplies [2][4] - The EU's trade barriers have not deterred the competitiveness of Chinese products, as the market share of Chinese electric vehicles in Europe increased from 3.5% to 3.9% in Q4 2024, with a significant portion produced by Western brands in China [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to experience range - bound trading in the short term due to the multi - factor game on the fundamentals. The macro market's positive news has been realized, dragging down the rubber price center, and the decline of synthetic rubber will also affect the natural rubber price. Although the supply side has some support, there is an expectation of increased supply later. The terminal consumption shows fair performance, but demand lacks remarkable highlights. The natural rubber inventory is continuously decreasing, but the decline rate is slowing down [8][9][89]. Summary by Related Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2601 ranged from 15,030 to 15,670 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on the afternoon of October 31, 2025, the contract was reported at 15,085 yuan/ton, down 250 points or 1.63% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of October 30, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 18,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 31, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,040 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [20][23]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with last week. As of October 30, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 31, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber declined slightly compared with last week [27][30]. Important Market Information - There were multiple significant events including the China - US leaders' meeting, China - US economic and trade consultations, Fed's interest rate cut, statements from the US Treasury Secretary, and economic data releases from various countries. For example, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the US consumer confidence index declined, and China's automobile and heavy - truck sales showed growth [31][33][36]. Supply - side Situation - As of August 31, 2025, among the main natural rubber producing countries, the production in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia decreased slightly compared with the previous month, while that in India, Vietnam, and China increased. The total production of main producing countries in August 2025 was 987,000 tons, a 64,700 - ton or 6.47% increase from the previous month, with a slightly slower growth rate. As of September 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 774,000 tons, a 13.5% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a 11.2% year - on - year increase. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a 13.98% month - on - month increase [43][47][51]. Demand - side Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the开工 rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's automobile monthly production and sales were 3.2758 million and 3.2264 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 17.15% and 14.86% and month - on - month growth of 16.35% and 12.94% respectively. The monthly sales of heavy trucks in China were 105,583 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 82.95% and a month - on - month increase of 15.24%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 103.487 million pieces, a 0.2% year - on - year increase, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 56.3 million pieces, a 10.65% month - on - month decrease [58][62][65]. Inventory - side Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 120,900 tons, a decrease of 3,120 tons from last week. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.0389 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 1% from the previous month. The total social inventory of dark rubber was 639,000 tons, a 0.3% decrease; the total social inventory of light rubber was 400,000 tons, a 2% month - on - month decrease. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period, including a 1.29% decrease in bonded area inventory and a 1.18% decrease in general trade inventory [86]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber producing areas are in the peak supply season. Recently, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been affected by weather, with high raw material procurement prices last week, providing strong short - term support. However, as the rainfall in some main producing areas decreases, there is an expectation of increased supply. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 742,000 tons, a 11.7% month - on - month and 20.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative imports increased significantly. - Demand: Last week, the tire enterprises'开工 rates declined slightly. The inventory accumulation trend of all - steel tires reversed, and semi - steel tires had a slight inventory reduction. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires in the first nine months increased slightly year - on - year. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly, and the social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber continued to decline slightly [87]. 后市展望 - The short - term trend of the natural rubber futures market is expected to be range - bound. The supply side has short - term support but an expectation of increased supply later. The demand side has fair performance but lacks highlights, and the inventory is decreasing with a slowing decline rate. Key factors to watch include China - US trade relations, anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and zero - tariff policy progress [89][90]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: The main natural rubber futures contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines for now [91][92].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic decline of Gaotang County, highlighting the impact of the collapse of the Shifeng Group, a key agricultural machinery company, on the local economy and community [4][9][20]. Economic Overview - Gaotang County's GDP was reported at 210.1 billion yuan, ranking 132nd among 136 counties in Shandong Province [8]. - The county has been economically marginalized, consistently ranking among the bottom in GDP within the province [6][20]. - The county's GDP experienced a dramatic decline from over 400 billion yuan to less than 150 billion yuan, a rare phenomenon in economic terms [20]. Historical Context - Gaotang County experienced a period of prosperity around 2008, referred to as "Golden Gaotang," characterized by bustling streets and thriving businesses [9][13]. - The Shifeng Group was a significant employer and economic pillar, contributing to the county's growth until its decline began around 2010 [9][12][15]. Company Performance - The Shifeng Group expanded its product range in the early 2000s, producing agricultural vehicles and tires, but faced increasing competition leading to a decline in orders post-2010 [12][15]. - Attempts to pivot towards manufacturing larger agricultural machinery and electric vehicles were largely unsuccessful, resulting in a loss of market competitiveness [15][16]. - The trade war between China and the U.S. further exacerbated the company's struggles, leading to a near-total loss of orders and subsequent layoffs [16][20]. Community Impact - The decline of the Shifeng Group led to widespread unemployment, particularly affecting younger residents who migrated to larger cities for work [20][21]. - The remaining workforce in Gaotang consists mainly of older employees or those unable to leave, reflecting a demographic shift and economic stagnation [21][22]. - The article emphasizes the emotional and social toll on the community, with many former residents reminiscing about the county's past prosperity [22][23].