热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 橡胶供应端来看，wind数据显示，11月份天然橡胶生产国联合会（ANRPC）的橡胶产量为1167千吨， 环比同比均下滑，从近年数据来看，11月份产量出现环比下滑的年份较少，此次数据下滑或是对11月泰 国南部地区洪水导致橡胶产出损失的印证；但2025年前11个月天然橡胶生产国联合会（ANRPC）的橡 胶产量较2024年同期增长1.1%，我们认为2025年橡胶产量维持小幅增长态势。 库存方面：钢联数据显示，12月19日当周青岛干胶库存为51.52万吨，高于前一周的49.88万吨；社会库 存为118.2万吨，亦高于前一周的115.3万吨。维持累库态势，后期需关注库存压力。 需求端来看，wind数据显示，11月份天然橡胶生产国联合会（ANRPC）的橡胶消费量为911千吨，同 比、环比增长近1.2%；2025年前11个月天然橡胶生产国联合会（ANRPC）消费量较去年同期略下滑。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10182.8万条，同比下降2.6%；1-11月橡胶 轮胎外胎产量较上年同期增0.6%至11.03亿条。可以看出无超预期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. Looking ahead, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. Overall, considering the weakening of the macro - and fundamental aspects and the seasonal inventory accumulation, it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term [8][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2601 of natural rubber futures fluctuated between 14,740 - 15,170 yuan/ton, first declining and then rising, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on November 7, 2025, it closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 90 points or 0.6% for the week [14]. 现货价格 - As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,400 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,030 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly last week. As of November 7, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 445 yuan/ton, narrowing 155 yuan/ton from last week [26]. Important Market Information - The US federal government's "shutdown" from October 1 to November 6 has broken the historical record, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. The increase in US ADP employment in October has added uncertainty to the Fed's December interest - rate cut. There are also mixed signals in the US employment situation, with different data showing different trends. The Fed's internal differences on interest - rate cuts are intensifying. High - frequency economic data such as the US ISM service and manufacturing PMIs have different performances. In addition, there are developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the performance of the new energy vehicle and traditional vehicle markets in China is also reported [30][31][33]. Supply - Side Situation - As of September 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's increased slightly, India's increased slightly, Vietnam's decreased slightly, and China's increased slightly. The total production in September 2025 was 1.0353 million tons, an increase of 48,300 tons or 4.89% from the previous month, with the growth rate continuing to decline slightly. The monthly production of synthetic rubber in China in September 2025 was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [39][44][48]. Demand - Side Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly production of tire casings increased slightly year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month. With the weather getting colder, there is an expectation of weakening demand [55][59][62]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of November 7, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 118,970 tons, down 1,930 tons from last week. As of November 2, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.056 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons or 1.6%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 3%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.4%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%, with the bonded area inventory decreasing by 0.58% and the general trade inventory increasing by 4.36% [83]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak supply season. The raw material prices in Yunnan are basically stable, and the rainfall in Hainan has limited improvement, affecting the tapping volume. The downstream factory procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the raw material prices are weakly stable. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased significantly year - on - year. - Demand side: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The overall inventory fluctuated slightly, with semi - steel tires continuously accumulating inventory and all - steel tires turning to inventory accumulation again. With the weather getting colder, the demand for all - steel tire replacement markets will weaken further, and the demand for semi - steel tires will also slow down. The automobile production and sales in September increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The tire export volume in September decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to September increased year - on - year. - Inventory side: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, with a relatively large increase in the general trade inventory in Qingdao [84][85]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. In the future, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to be followed include Sino - US trade relations, the progress of anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather disturbances and raw material output in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [86][87]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, use an interval - trading approach, and aggressive traders can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on natural rubber is "oscillating", indicating that in the short - term, it may maintain a weak performance [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. Factors such as产区 weather improvement expectations may loosen raw material price support, while mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and post - holiday downstream operating rates may rise. However, external macro disturbances are negative [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, Yunnan has some rainfall disturbances but overall supply is okay with slightly lower raw material purchase prices; Hainan's rainfall affects rubber tapping, and supply increase is slow. In Thailand, the northeast and north have less rainfall, and the price of raw material cup - rubber has dropped significantly; the south has irregular rainfall, and the glue price has stopped falling and rebounded. In Vietnam, the weather has improved, and glue supply is normal [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points; the semi - steel tire sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 660,000 tons, a decrease of 0.08%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 420,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7% [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the RU - mixed spread has narrowed, and the basis between futures and spot has continued to shrink. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts has also narrowed [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has improved, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex has still been in the loss range but has recovered significantly [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: It is bearish. Affected by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the overall bearish performance of the commodity market [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed variety [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. As of October 17, the RU main contract closed at 14,695 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 620 yuan/ton (- 4.05%); the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,225 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 125 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have loosened [9]. - **Position on the Futures Board**: The position of the RU2601 contract is relatively low, while the total position of NR has increased, and the RU - NR spread has significantly narrowed [16][23][30]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have declined [49]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+ 1.76%) [62]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+ 4.25%) [72]. - **China's Imports**: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+ 19.47%). In September 2025, China imported a total of 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, the total import was 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [85][91]. - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's social inventory has significantly decreased. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [101][109]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: After the holiday, tire capacity utilization has rebounded. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [110][117]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, an 82% increase compared to the same period last year [126][136]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to August, tire exports were 6.19 million tons (+ 5.1%) [137]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the delivery profit of full - latex is in a loss [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the rubber market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is in the up - volume period, but the up - volume is slower year - on - year due to rainfall. Raw material prices are relatively firm, and processing profits are neutral. Rubber inventory in China is decreasing, and light - colored rubber inventory is at a low level. On the demand side, the output of rubber tire casings in China decreased year - on - year in July, factory profits declined significantly under over - capacity, and there is still pressure to digest semi - steel tire inventory. In the long - term, the big - cycle inflection point of rubber supply has arrived. The decline in the growth rate of tapping area and the aging of rubber trees restrict the growth of rubber production, and this factor will deepen year by year. Strategically, rubber can be a multi - allocation variety for the year, especially in years or periods with abnormal weather [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Impact of Tapping Area and Tree Aging on Rubber Production - As of 2024, the ANPRC tapping area was 97.43 million hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.02%, and the growth rate was negative for the first time. The growth rate of the tapping area in 2025 is expected to be - 0.71% (calculated based on 6 - year tapping) and - 0.76% (calculated based on 7 - year tapping), and the decline rate will expand. The growth rate of the tapping area is expected to be negative from 2025 - 2030 [4] - The proportion of 8 - 12 - year - old rubber trees is decreasing year by year, showing an aging trend. The proportion was 33.6% in 2022, 31.02% in 2023, 27.93% in 2024, and is expected to drop to 22% in 2025 and below 20% after 2026 [5] - Affected by the above factors, the growth rate of natural rubber production has slowed down. In July, the global natural rubber production is expected to drop 0.1% to 1.246 million tons. Thailand's rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase 1.2% to 14.89 million tons due to good weather and increased per - mu yield [5] - The actual production growth rate of traditional rubber - producing countries has declined compared with 2023. For example, Thailand's production from January to June 2025 was 1.964 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83% but a 6.58% decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Indonesia's production from January to June 2025 was 1.176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% and a 25% decrease compared with 2023. Vietnam's production from January to June 2025 was 352,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.12%. The production of emerging rubber - producing countries, such as Cote d'Ivoire, has shown good growth. In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume increased 14.3% year - on - year [6] 3.2. Impact of Imports on Rubber Inventory in China - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. From January to July, the total import volume was 4.709 million tons, a 20.8% increase compared with the same period in 2024. The expected import volume in August is still high due to the approaching peak production season in Southeast Asia and the continuous impact of the zero - tariff policy [7] - The social inventory of natural rubber in China has been decreasing since April, but large imports have inhibited the de - stocking speed. As of August 31, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.265 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 796,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. The inventory of light - colored rubber has dropped to a low level in the past three years [8] 3.3. Rubber Consumption Situation - The output of rubber tire casings in China has declined for three consecutive months. In July 2025, the output was 94.364 million pieces, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the output increased 0.7% year - on - year to 686.115 million pieces [9] - In the tire consumption field, the supporting tire consumption is good. In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The supporting demand for tires is expected to be 79.07 million pieces for passenger cars and 16.786 million pieces for commercial vehicles from January to July 2025 [9] - The growth rate of the tire export market has slowed down. In the first 7 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume was 416 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, lower than the growth rate in 2024. The reasons include pressure in the European and Asian markets. In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and China's tire re - export to the Asian market was blocked due to tariff issues [10] - The tire replacement market is under pressure. The new housing construction area has a negative growth, and the PM1 data shows that China's economic vitality needs to be improved. The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires are relatively low, and there is still a need to further reduce tire inventory [11]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR are rated neutral. The supply is expected to rise continuously, and the demand is affected by the US tariff increase, with the actual tire demand in China deteriorating. Although the current basis is strengthening, if the market sentiment doesn't improve, the spot price may decline. The valuation is low, which may limit the downside space [5]. - BR is rated neutral. The supply is expected to increase as some upstream devices will restart, and the production profit is still in a loss state. The demand is also affected by the US tariff increase, and the tire substitution demand supports the price. However, the upstream raw material price has concerns of weakening, and the supply pressure is difficult to ease. The price is expected to continue to run weakly, but the low valuation may limit the downside space [5]. 2. Core Views - The demand side is affected by the US tariff increase, with a poor expectation. The actual tire demand in China is also deteriorating, and the tire factory operating rate is continuously declining slightly [1][5]. - For natural rubber, the supply is expected to rise, and the demand is weak. The current basis is strengthening, but the spot may have a downside space if the market sentiment doesn't improve. The low valuation may limit the decline [5]. - For synthetic rubber (BR), the supply has an expectation of increase, and the production profit is in a loss state. The demand is also affected by the US tariff increase, and the tire substitution demand supports the price. The upstream raw material price has concerns of weakening, and the supply pressure is difficult to ease. The price is expected to run weakly, and the low valuation may limit the decline [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: After the Songkran Festival, Thailand will enter a new tapping season. The prices of Thai latex and cup lump continue to be weak, especially the latex, and the spread between latex and cup lump has significantly declined, reflecting the expected increase in raw material supply [1]. - **Supply**: In April, the global natural rubber production is still at a low level. The main production area in Yunnan, China, has started tapping, and the latex output is expected to gradually increase. The supply is expected to rise, and the later arrival volume in China is also expected to increase [1]. - **Demand**: As of April 18, the all - steel tire operating rate is 67.44% (+0.23%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate is 72.40% (-1.99%). The downstream tire operating rate continues to be weak, mainly due to the increase in the finished product inventory pressure of tire factories, indicating poor orders [1]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly declined, while the social inventory has slightly increased. Year - on - year, it is still in an inverse seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, reflecting weak downstream demand and relatively low import pressure in China [1]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Upstream Raw Materials**: As of April 18, the price of butadiene from Shanghai Petrochemical is 9,300 yuan/ton, and the cost of butadiene rubber is 11,986 yuan/ton. The butadiene price is firm this week, and the production of butadiene rubber continues to be in a loss state [2]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of April 18, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber is 62.76% (+2.02%), and the output is 25,200 tons (+810). In the loss situation, the operating rate is difficult to significantly increase later [2]. - **Production Profit**: As of April 18, the production profit of butadiene rubber is - 961 yuan/ton. Currently, due to the high butadiene price year - on - year, the production profit of domestic butadiene rubber remains in a loss state, and the loss amplitude has recently narrowed [2]. - **Device Maintenance Dynamics**: Some devices of Shandong Weite Chemical Co., Ltd., Haopu New Materials, Zhejiang Transfar, Shandong Yihua, Jinzhou Petrochemical, and Yanshan Petrochemical have plans for restart or maintenance [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the upstream butadiene port inventory is 2.74 million tons (+2.92), the butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory is 27,150 tons (0.06), and the butadiene rubber trader inventory is 4,370 tons (-330) [3][4]. - **Demand**: The downstream tire operating rate continues to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate has turned to a year - on - year decline, mainly due to the increase in the finished product inventory pressure of tire factories, indicating poor orders [1][4].