1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The change in butadiene has altered the entire rubber landscape. The strategy is to observe the buying opportunities for far - month contracts, buy on dips, and add long positions during significant pullbacks (participants can appropriately use put options for protection). [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Balance Sheet**: It is estimated that natural rubber will experience inventory reduction in March. If this occurs, the question is whether the losses in butadiene - derived styrene - butadiene rubber will change the entire rubber landscape. [8] - **Natural Rubber Supply**: Southeast Asian rubber - producing regions are gradually entering the seasonal production decline phase (extra attention is needed if the decline exceeds expectations), and some domestic regions have started rubber tapping. Attention should be paid to the supply and substitution of synthetic rubber. Currently, the NR - BR price spread has turned negative, and the substitution effect of BR is expected to weaken. [8] - **Imports**: From January to February 2026, China's rubber imports decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the implementation of zero - tariff policies between China and its African diplomatic partners and Thailand, and the postponement of EUDR. The rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire in the first two months decreased by 0.9% year - on - year. [8] - **Demand**: This week, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased by 0.49% and 0.41% respectively on a weekly basis, showing a seasonal rebound. Long - term attention should be paid to the national rubber stockpiling policy. [8] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber is 1.3649 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 15,100 tons. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber decreased by 12,000 tons. [8] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The weekly operating rate of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, continued to decline, and the port inventory also decreased on a weekly basis. The operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber dropped rapidly, and the profit losses expanded rapidly. [8] - **Valuation**: The profit of natural rubber is - 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of Thai standard rubber is - 85 US dollars/ton. [8] 3.2. Data Chart Tracking - **Glue and Cup - lump Prices**: Recently, glue prices have been rising continuously, while cup - lump prices have been falling. [13] - **RU Valuation**: The RU valuation is very reasonable. [16] - **NR Basis**: The NR basis is still in a strong area. [20] - **BR Valuation**: Supported by costs, BR is significantly stronger than natural rubber, enhancing its valuation advantage. [27] - **Styrene - butadiene Rubber Supply**: Styrene - butadiene rubber has obvious losses, and the operating rate has dropped rapidly. Attention should also be paid to the rubber production in Southeast Asia. [33][34] - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: Attention should be paid to the weekly production of styrene - butadiene and high - cis styrene - butadiene rubber. [37][39][41] - **Imports**: From January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. [43][45] - **Demand - Side Seasonal Changes**: The all - steel tire inventory has entered the seasonal expectation, and the consumption in March is expected to rebound seasonally. In February, the cumulative tire exports reached 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 160,000 tons (+ 12%). [47][55][56] - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons week - on - week, and the dark - colored rubber inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. The synthetic rubber inventory decreased on a weekly basis. [62][63] - **Profit Situation**: The profits of natural rubber and Thai standard rubber are still in the red. [69] - **Butadiene Price Estimation**: Considering crude oil reaching $140 per barrel, the price of butadiene is estimated. Referring to June 2008 when the crude oil price reached $140 per barrel, the ex - factory price of butadiene reached a peak of 24,000 yuan/ton one month later. Currently, the ex - factory price of Shanghai Petrochemical is about 16,000 yuan/ton. [73][75] - **Natural Rubber Balance Sheet**: Natural rubber is expected to experience inventory reduction in March. [76]