欧元贬值

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美欧利差缩窄 为何欧元贬值?
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-31 07:44
Group 1 - The European Central Bank has decided to maintain interest rates, yet the euro has depreciated significantly against the dollar, primarily due to the market interpreting the recent US-EU tariff agreement as a major concession from the Eurozone, which could have a substantial negative impact on its economy [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth in the first quarter showed slight acceleration, driven by increased investment and net exports, with investment contributing 0.3 percentage points and net exports contributing 1.07 percentage points to GDP, a reversal from negative contributions in the previous year [2] - The German Federal Senate has passed a reform bill that exempts defense spending exceeding 1% of GDP from debt brake restrictions, marking a shift from cautious fiscal policy to active expansion, which is expected to support economic growth in Germany and the Eurozone [2] Group 2 - The Eurozone faces significant challenges in relying on fiscal expansion for economic growth due to structural low-growth traps and deteriorating external conditions, with weak domestic demand and high pressure on exports to the US [3] - The recent US tariff policy is expected to have a more severe impact on the Eurozone economy than previously anticipated, with the weighted average tariff rate on EU exports to the US projected to rise from approximately 1.5% to 15.2%, potentially reducing economic growth by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points over the next year [5] - Concerns over tariff impacts have led to capital outflows from the Eurozone, despite a narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Eurozone, which typically would support the euro's value [6][8]