周一与英镑联动走强的是欧元兑美元汇率，在美元指数震荡下行与欧元区政策预期稳定的双重推动下， 12月1日欧元兑美元呈现偏强盘整态势。截至亚太市场午盘，欧元兑美元报1.1607，较前一交易日收盘 价1.1592上涨0.1035%，盘中最高触及1.1615，最低下探1.1590，振幅收窄至0.22%，显示市场在关键政 策节点前保持谨慎观望姿态。这一走势既受益于美联储降息预期升温带来的美元压制，更源于欧洲央行 明确的政策稳预期及欧元区经济数据的边际改善。 技术分析显示，欧元兑美元当前处于多空博弈的平衡区间。日线级别已形成以1.1502为底部的"双重 底"形态，颈线位锁定在1.1625，当前汇率运行于1.1580-1.1620区间，且处于20日均线上方，5日与10日 均线形成金叉，短期偏多信号明显。4小时图则呈现箱体震荡特征，成交量萎缩至均值的70%，RSI指标 维持在49-52的中性区间，MACD零轴上方红柱减弱，显示多头动能不足，需等待突破信号确认。 机构对后续走势判断分化。富达国际认为，若2026年美欧央行同步完成宽松周期，美联储政策转向叠加 欧央行降息收尾，欧元兑美元有望升至1.25的长期目标。而荷兰国际集团则 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank has decided to maintain interest rates, yet the euro has depreciated significantly against the dollar, primarily due to the market interpreting the recent US-EU tariff agreement as a major concession from the Eurozone, which could have a substantial negative impact on its economy [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth in the first quarter showed slight acceleration, driven by increased investment and net exports, with investment contributing 0.3 percentage points and net exports contributing 1.07 percentage points to GDP, a reversal from negative contributions in the previous year [2] - The German Federal Senate has passed a reform bill that exempts defense spending exceeding 1% of GDP from debt brake restrictions, marking a shift from cautious fiscal policy to active expansion, which is expected to support economic growth in Germany and the Eurozone [2] Group 2 - The Eurozone faces significant challenges in relying on fiscal expansion for economic growth due to structural low-growth traps and deteriorating external conditions, with weak domestic demand and high pressure on exports to the US [3] - The recent US tariff policy is expected to have a more severe impact on the Eurozone economy than previously anticipated, with the weighted average tariff rate on EU exports to the US projected to rise from approximately 1.5% to 15.2%, potentially reducing economic growth by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points over the next year [5] - Concerns over tariff impacts have led to capital outflows from the Eurozone, despite a narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Eurozone, which typically would support the euro's value [6][8]

Group 1: Euro's Initial Decline and Challenges - The euro faced significant depreciation, with the exchange rate against the dollar dropping below 1.0177, marking a 20-year low due to a "triple pressure" scenario [2] - The eurozone economy, particularly Germany, is experiencing structural weaknesses, with the manufacturing PMI remaining below the growth threshold for 12 consecutive months, indicating severe economic challenges [4] - Political instability in Germany, including significant divisions over fiscal policy, has raised concerns about the eurozone's fiscal discipline [5] Group 2: Dollar's Strength and Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve's high interest rates (4.25%-4.5%) have increased the dollar's attractiveness, leading to a surge in capital inflows into the U.S. market, with $1.2 trillion entering U.S. stocks and bonds in Q4 2024, 35% of which came from the eurozone [3] - German and French institutional investors have reduced their holdings in local bonds in favor of U.S. Treasuries, further exerting downward pressure on the euro [3] Group 3: Euro's Recovery and Driving Factors - In March 2025, the euro began a strong rebound, characterized by a "V" shaped recovery, driven by changes in monetary policy expectations, fiscal stimulus measures, and a crisis of confidence in the dollar [6] - The European Central Bank's interest rate cuts and the narrowing of the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe have led to a reallocation of global capital towards eurozone bonds, supporting the euro's recovery [8] Group 4: Structural Issues and Long-term Challenges - Despite the euro's rebound, structural issues such as industrial hollowing and an aging population continue to pose long-term challenges for the eurozone economy [20][19] - The eurozone's energy transition and fiscal coordination difficulties hinder effective economic policy, impacting the euro's stability [21] Group 5: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment Influences - Geopolitical events and market sentiment significantly affect the euro's exchange rate, with trade tariffs and central bank policy shifts amplifying volatility [16][17] - The eurozone faces external competition from the U.S. and China, which poses additional challenges to its economic position in the global market [22]