Core Points - The Japanese government approved a comprehensive economic plan worth 21.3 trillion yen to support the economy and consumers affected by inflation, marking the largest stimulus since the pandemic [1][2] - The plan includes 17.7 trillion yen in general account spending, 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts, and 900 billion yen in special account spending, with a significant focus on addressing rising inflation [1][3] - Inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 43 consecutive months, with real wages declining for over two years, making cost of living a primary concern for voters [2][5] Economic Measures - The plan allocates 2 trillion yen for local priority support subsidies, allowing local governments to determine the use of funds, including 400 billion yen for rice vouchers and shopping coupons [1][2] - An additional 500 billion yen is designated to subsidize residents' electricity and gas bills for the first three months of the following year [1] Debt and Market Concerns - The economic plan requires parliamentary approval and is expected to rely heavily on debt financing, with anticipated government bond issuance exceeding 6.69 trillion yen from the previous year [3][4] - Concerns about public debt expansion have intensified, with the 10-year government bond yield nearing 1.8%, the highest since 2008, and the 30-year yield surpassing 3.3% [3][4] Expert Opinions - Some economists argue that while large-scale fiscal stimulus is necessary to prevent economic stagnation, there are worries that injecting substantial funds into an already inflation-pressured market could exacerbate inflation [5][6] - Critics highlight that temporary measures like rice vouchers may not address the root causes of inflation and could delay necessary structural reforms [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates that the Federal Reserve's policy choices will be increasingly path-dependent due to overlapping influences of inflation, economic growth pressures, and the political cycle [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The upcoming change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, with Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026, is expected to significantly impact policy communication and market expectations [1] - Monetary policy is evolving from a passive response to economic conditions to a more integrated approach that considers fiscal pressures, debt costs, and administrative policy preferences [1] - The certainty of a rate cut path is increasing, driven by the sensitivity of fiscal conditions to interest rates, which necessitates balancing fiscal sustainability with debt issuance pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Short-term inflation disturbances caused by tariffs have not altered the overall downward trend of inflation, while the labor market is experiencing wage stickiness that is gradually easing due to factors like AI replacement and immigration policy adjustments [1] - This easing of wage stickiness provides additional space for a more accommodative interest rate environment [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Projections - The macro team projects that the Federal Reserve will implement approximately four rate cuts by the end of 2026, bringing the policy rate to a range of 2.75% to 3% [2] - The reduction in interest rates is expected to alleviate debt financing cost pressures and create a mild recovery space for interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate, serving as a critical support mechanism amid economic downturn pressures [2]

日本三季度实际GDP环比下降0.4%，按年率计算下降1.8%，终结连续六个季度扩张，呈现内需外需双弱格局。私人消 费仅微增0.1%，民间住宅投资环比暴跌9.4%，美国关税政策导致出口环比下降1.2%，叠加中日关系恶化冲击旅游消费 与在华企业业务，经济基本面难以支撑日元走强。 市场对美联储近期降息的预期降温，美日利差维持在350个基点左右的高位，显著削弱日元吸引力。美国财政部长贝森 特多次暗示，加息是支撑日元的最佳途径，间接降低了日本官方汇市干预获得美国支持的可能性，进一步打开日元贬 值空间。 日本当局近期密集释放警告信号。财务大臣片山皋月承认"平衡通胀、债市与日元的难度"，内阁官房长官木原稔强调 需"密切注意汇率过度波动"，但均未使用"准备采取果断行动"等强威慑表述。市场解读为政府对日元贬值存在容忍 度，叠加内阁成员此前多次宣扬"弱日元利好出口"，口头干预未能遏制抛售势头。 汇市干预面临多重障碍。一方面，当前日元贬值由实际利率负值、财政失衡等基本面因素驱动，干预效果存疑，前日 本央行官员直言"无异于浪费外汇储备"；另一方面，需获得美国支持，而美方更倾向日本通过加息而非干预稳定汇 率，且高市政府干预意愿低于往届 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence between the U.S. economy and employment since the third quarter, with economic recovery contrasting sharply with a rapid cooling in the job market. This situation has prompted the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, with future rate paths heavily dependent on the evolving relationship between economic performance and employment trends [2][3][4]. Economic Recovery Factors - The economic recovery is attributed to two main factors: the decline of negative narratives surrounding "tight fiscal" policies and "high tariffs," and the positive impact of the AI wave and a bull market in U.S. tech stocks, which have driven capital expenditure expansion in the corporate sector and wealth effects in the household sector [3][9]. - The fiscal expansion is highlighted by the introduction of the "Big and Beautiful Act," which has led to a significant increase in tax cuts, contributing to a rise in the fiscal deficit to $440 billion in the third quarter, a substantial increase from the previous quarter [9][12]. - The high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have resulted in a notable increase in tariff revenue, estimated at around $30 billion per month, which has helped alleviate fiscal pressure despite its limited impact on inflation [12][19]. Employment Market Dynamics - The cooling of the job market is driven by both demand and supply factors. High interest rates have suppressed traditional industries, while tariffs have impacted corporate profits. Additionally, the AI technology has shown a contractionary effect on employment in the tech sector, leading to a continuous decline in hiring demand [3][29]. - From March to July, approximately 1.4 million immigrant workers exited the labor market, contributing to a simultaneous contraction in both demand and supply, resulting in a significant drop in new job additions while the unemployment rate remained stable [29][30]. - The article notes that the current employment growth is primarily affected by industries sensitive to interest rates, tariffs, and technology, with the tech sector exemplifying a "strong growth, weak employment" scenario [35][38]. Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding future interest rate paths, with hawks focusing on the "strong economy" and doves emphasizing "weak employment." The current inflation rate is fluctuating between 2-3%, providing narrative space for both sides [4][43]. - Political factors and financial stability are identified as key variables influencing future Federal Reserve decisions. The upcoming changes in leadership within the Federal Reserve may enhance the influence of the Trump administration, potentially leading to a more dovish policy stance [4][55]. - The article predicts that by the end of 2026, the policy interest rate may drop to around 3%, corresponding to 3-4 rate cuts of 25 basis points each [4][56]. Market Implications - The article anticipates a continued bull steepening trend in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to decline from 4.3% to around 4.0% by 2026, while the yield curve will maintain its steepening characteristic [4][61]. - The U.S. dollar is projected to experience a phase of initial weakness followed by a potential recovery, with an overall oscillating trend expected, as the dollar index is forecasted to decline from 101 in 2025 to 99 by 2026 [4][69].

周三（11月19日）亚洲时段，美元/日元守于155.30上方震荡，前一交易日一度创下9个月新高(155.73)， 延续了10月初以来的加速上涨趋势。美元兑日元汇率维持强势震荡上行格局，日线连续收在155关口上 方，加强了多头主导地位。 在亚洲时段交易中，日元维持弱势震荡，始终靠近自2月以来的低点。投资者对于日本央行未来的政策 路径依旧缺乏明确指引，而首相高市早苗所坚持的财政扩张和低利率偏好，更强化了日元的结构性压 力。 日本执政党内部的预算小组于本周提出编制规模超过25万亿日元的追加财政预算，以支撑首相的刺激计 划。市场随即担忧，这将带来更高的国债供给，使40年期国债收益率冲上历史高位。 一位日本长期利率研究机构的分析师指出："预算规模越大，国债供给压力越强，央行越难在短期推动 加息。" 美元/日元技术分析 尽管涨势加速，但从14日相对强弱指数(RSI)来看，该货币对在技术上尚未进入超买区域。这意味着若 就业数据表现强劲，进一步降低美联储12月降息的隐含概率，美元对日元汇率可能继续上攻156.00及以 上关口。 反之，若数据不及预期，则可能导致看跌反转。在此情境下，若美元兑日元跌破上升趋势线，可能引发 更深层 ...

对新一轮大规模经济刺激计划的担忧正在日本债市掀起一场风暴。由于投资者担心高市早苗政府的财政扩张将损害日本本已脆弱的公共财政， 由 此引发的抛售潮正将日本长期国债收益率推至历史新高，并加剧了日元汇率的下行压力，令日本金融市场"股债汇"同时承压。 周二，日本长期国债价格进一步暴跌。其中，40年期国债收益率飙升8个基点至3.68%，创下该券种自2007年发行以来的最高水平。与此同时，20 年期和30年期国债收益率均上涨至少4个基点，30年期收益率距离历史高点仅一步之遥。 日元汇率也受到波及，周二早些时候兑美元汇率跌破155的关键心理关口，兑欧元汇率则触及180的历史新低。 扩张财政预期升温，新债发行压力巨大 市场动荡的核心，是对高市早苗政府经济刺激方案实际规模的担忧。据调查显示，市场预计此次方案的规模将超过上一财年13.9万亿日元（约合 898亿美元）的水平。这一预期在周二得到了部分证实，财务大臣Satsuki Katayama表示，虽然现阶段无法评论细节，但刺激方案"到目前为止已经 变得相当大"。 投资者正聚焦于方案中的"实际支出"数字，以评估新增债务发行是否会威胁日本市场的稳定。高市早苗一再表明她愿意在必要时增 ...

01 华泰张继强：新开局下的叙事与主线【把握2026投资机会】 15:00-16:00 核心看点： AI投资热潮会否迎来关键验证？全球"财政扩张+货币配合"将如何搅动市场？国内新旧 动能转换能否进入"右侧开花结果"？明年我们能否等来企业盈利的实质性改善？ 嘉宾： 张继强丨华泰证券研究所所长，总量研究负责人，固收首席分析师 扫码预约 02 中金陈健恒：中美新老经济分化加剧，债牛趋势更为确定 16:00-17:00 核心看点 ： 聚焦三大核心驱动力：出口放量，核电资本开支加速与技术升级，以及AI数据中心用电 结构变革。 嘉宾： 廖启华丨瑞银大中华区能源转型及新能源行业研究主管 严亦舒丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 利林海丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 徐宾丨瑞银证券中国研究部总监 核心看点： 中美新老经济分化加剧，股牛和债牛并不对立。全球财政政策持续宽松后，面临制约的 情况下，货币政策有望接力放松，且全球货币政策空间依然较为充足。中国今年在贸易顺差和财政 赤字创新高的情况下，经济和股市有支撑，明年这两个因素的同比拉动减弱，债券利率将重新加快 回落速度。在全球贸易和地缘和各国政策摩擦性增加的情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in interest rate decisions among Federal Reserve officials is impacting gold prices, leading to a decline in COMEX gold futures and related ETFs [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - COMEX gold futures opened lower and are currently trading around $4028 per ounce, reflecting a downward trend [1] - Gold ETF 华夏 (518850) has seen a net inflow of 686 million yuan over the past 13 trading days, despite a 0.74% drop today [1] - Other related ETFs, such as 黄金股 ETF (159562) and 有色金属 ETF 基金 (516650), have also experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.56% respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - There is increasing disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate decisions, with at least three officials expected to oppose maintaining the current rates in the upcoming December meeting [1] - If the Federal Reserve were to cut rates by 25 basis points, the opposition could also reach at least three votes [1] Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Longcheng Futures indicates that the recent pullback in gold prices follows a period of strong performance, driven by signals of a weak U.S. economy and expectations of Federal Reserve easing [1] - Following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, contributing to the recent decline in gold prices [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, while medium to long-term support remains from risks of economic recession, fiscal expansion, and weakening dollar credibility [1]

内外需同时"哑火"，日本经济在年末拉响警报。受美国关税政策的影响逐步显现，今年第三季度日本国内生产总值（GDP）实际按年率计算下降1.8%，这是 日本经济在六个季度中首次呈现负增长态势。外需急剧收缩是此轮负增长的核心推手，但还面临着内需疲软局面，叠加近期新任首相高市早苗表态引起政治 波动，本就步履维艰的日本经济陷入三重困局。 外需收缩、内需疲软 日本内阁府17日发布的初步统计结果显示，日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP），剔除物价变动因素后的实际GDP较上季度减少0.4%，按年率计算下降 1.8%。这是自2024年第一季度以来，日本季度GDP增速首次呈现负增长。 具体数据显示，三季度，日本个人消费环比增幅仅为0.1%；在进出口方面，三季度日本出口增速下降1.2%，进口增速下降0.1%。此外住房投资继续疲软， 与二季度相比下降9.4%。 旅游经济冲击 日本内需不振的态势已趋于长期化。日本内阁府近期将2025财年经济增长预期从1.2%下调至0.7%，显示出对经济前景的深度忧虑。而高市早苗近期的言 论，更令日本经济雪上加霜。 高市早苗7日在国会答辩时就"台湾有事"表示，如果伴随出动军舰和使用武力，可能会构成"存亡危 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation have intensified, leading to a significant sell-off of long-term government bonds, with the 20-year bond yield reaching its highest level in 25 years [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The 30-year bond yield increased by 5 basis points to 3.26%, while the 40-year bond yield rose by 5.5 basis points to 3.6%, reflecting a global sensitivity among investors towards government fiscal discipline [1] - The sell-off in Japanese bonds mirrors a recent downturn in U.S. and U.K. bond markets, indicating a broader trend of investor caution regarding government fiscal policies [1] Group 2: Economic Stimulus Focus - Traders are closely monitoring the actual spending scale of Prime Minister Kishida's economic plan, especially after GDP data indicated economic contraction, which provides justification for stimulus measures [3] - The upcoming economic stimulus plan's specifics are a central uncertainty driving the current bond sell-off, with reports suggesting the government may consider a supplementary budget exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen [4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are cautious about the scale of the government's economic stimulus plan, as uncertainties regarding its impact on government bond issuance are exerting pressure on long-term bonds [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that rising concerns over a potentially larger-than-expected stimulus plan are causing Japan's fiscal risk premium to increase, putting pressure on long-term sovereign bonds and the yen [5] - The current political context and market sentiment have heightened concerns ahead of the upcoming 20-year bond auction, with participants keenly observing the auction results to gauge demand for Japanese long-term bonds following the yield surge [5]