我最近都没心思干别的事了，每天起来就是忙着研究股票，看着股票上涨的那种感觉，跟GC一样，让 人爽快。 天天担心的是这一波涨这么多了，讨论股票的人也越来越多，9月3日之后应该要调整了吧，所以现在整 天在上涨的恐惧中度过。 虽然专家都说牛市来了，而且是慢牛，一直拿着就好了，但这牛市能涨到多少点？长期谁也不知道。 今天我先说说短期走势的逻辑。 我们先看看这一轮行情是怎么涨起来的，并不是基本面转好了，跟去年对比一下数据就知道，GDP增速 也差不多还是五个点左右，物价数据还是通缩，就业没有什么改善，基本面并没有什么好转，大家体感 还是很差。 国家队真金白银砸钱后，机构信心就跟着起来了，接着买入，行情才能节节攀升，现在国家队和机构都 已经布好仓了，就等着散户进来炒高接盘了。 这其实跟楼市一样，我们一直盼望着国家能真金白银砸钱回购商品房做保障房，帮助去库存，库存去掉 了，价格才能拖起来，老百姓才敢大胆入市。 但国家只肯出钱到股市，不愿意出钱给楼市，所以导致楼市现在都没信心。 可能主要还是股市市值少点，百亿市值，而楼市三百亿市值，把股市拉起来更容易吧，需要投入的资金 更少。 结果就造成了截然不同的结果，股市吹起来了，楼市还是 ...

Group 1 - The recent performance of A-shares has been a major focus, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high and the STAR Market Index rising over 3%, marking a near two-and-a-half-year peak [1] - The semiconductor industry has shown strong growth, with stocks like Cambricon Technologies surging over 8% and stabilizing above the 1,000 yuan mark, while consumer electronics and automotive stocks have also performed well [1] - Global factors, including a decrease in policy uncertainty due to trade agreements and a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy towards expansion, have supported the bullish trend in A-shares [1][2] Group 2 - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting the valuation recovery of growth stocks [2] - The Chinese economy has shown resilience, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, outperforming other major economies [2] - The influx of capital into A-shares is driven by a stronger expectation of RMB appreciation and a series of government measures aimed at reducing systemic risks, which have lowered risk premiums [2] Group 3 - The sustainability of the current bullish trend in A-shares will depend on external factors, particularly U.S. policy changes and potential strengthening of the dollar, which could tighten global liquidity [3] - The domestic environment remains relatively stable and supportive, providing a solid foundation for financing and active thematic trading [3]

SMBC日兴证券高级利率策略师Ataru Okumura在周四的一份报告中写道："外资本是2025年上半年超长 期日债的主要需求来源，其净买入额锐增令人担忧收益率曲线长端未来可能出现波动。" 彭博策略师Mark Cranfield表示："日本国债期货未平仓合约近期增加表明，激进交易员愈发确信——10 月加息概率已从五成可能性发展为完全定价，这一预期将在植田和男回国前持续强化。" 周四，20年期国债收益率升至2.655%，创下自1999年以来的最高水平。30年期国债收益率也攀升至 3.185%，逐渐逼近同年该期限债券首次推出以来的历史最高点。 此番波动源于投资者对财政刺激政策的预期——执政联盟在7月参议院选举失利后可能加大债券发行规 模，令本就承压的长期债券雪上加霜。与此同时通胀担忧持续施压超长期债券，迫使日本央行面临更大 加息压力。 投资者需求也在持续减弱。日本证券业协会数据显示，7月外资对10年以上期限国债的净购买额降至 4800亿日元(约合33亿美元)，仅为6月规模的三分之一，表明海外投资者在年初大举买入后正在撤退。 智通财经APP获悉，由于市场对财政扩张的持续担忧以及主要投资者需求减弱，日本超长期政府债 ...

Report Summary on Financial Futures 1. Market Performance - On August 15, A-share's four major stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83% to 3696.77 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.6% to 11634.67 points, the ChiNext Index up 2.61% to 2534.22 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.43% to 1101.29 points. Market trading volume was 2272.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive (+3.92%), non-bank finance (+3.16%), and power equipment (+2.85%) led the gains; banks (-1.46%), food and beverage (+0.04%), and media (+0.51%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4623/155/641 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 12.3 billion, - 10 billion, - 18.7 billion, and 16.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +37.8 billion, +18.9 billion, - 24.9 billion, and - 31.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 31.3, 37.57, - 7.05, and - 13.52 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 4.23%, - 5.5%, 1.61%, and 4.59% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 70%, 44%, 76%, and 97% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures CTD bond (250006.IB), the yield change was +0bps, the corresponding net basis was 0.03, and the IRR was 1.15%; for the 5 - year (240020.IB), the yield change was +1bps, the net basis was - 0.001, and the IRR was 1.49%; for the 10 - year (220010.IB), the yield change was +1.25bps, the net basis was - 0.027, and the IRR was 1.78%; for the 30 - year (210005.IB), the yield change was +1.75bps, the net basis was - 0.062, and the IRR was 2% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 238 billion yuan and withdrew 122 billion yuan, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11]. - Based on the comparison of domestic meso - level data with the same period in the past five years, the manufacturing, real estate, social activity, infrastructure, and import - export sectors are analyzed. Positive scores indicate an improvement in sentiment, negative scores indicate a weakening, and zero scores indicate little change [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On August 11th, the four major A-share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 0.59% to 1049.73 points. Market turnover was 1.8499 trillion yuan, an increase of 113.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+2.04%), communication (+1.95%), and computer (+1.94%) led the gains, while banks (-1.01%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.41%), and coal (-0.35%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 4,185, 166, and 1,066 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 11.9 billion, -4.6 billion, -17.2 billion, and 9.9 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +24.8 billion, +17.4 billion, -19.1 billion, and -23.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 92.74, 92.96, 17.71, and 0.5 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -11.13%, -12.12%, -3.58%, and -0.15% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 30%, 10%, 25%, and 43% respectively [3]. - The trading strategy is to maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 11th, the yields of treasury bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.4, up 1.06 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.566, up 2.42 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.653, up 2.18 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.022, up 3.49 bps [3]. - For the current active contracts, the CTD bonds and their corresponding net basis and IRR are as follows: for the 2 - year treasury bond futures (2509 contract), the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a net basis of 0.005, and an IRR of 1.39%; for the 5 - year, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, yield change +3.25 bps, net basis - 0.007, IRR 1.51%; for the 10 - year, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, yield change +2.75 bps, net basis - 0.044, IRR 1.88%; for the 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, yield change +3.6 bps, net basis - 0.086, IRR 2.08% [4]. - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 112 billion yuan and withdrew 544.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan [4]. - The trading strategy is that due to the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent import - export and social activity sentiment has declined [10].

Group 1 - Germany's industrial output decreased by 1.9% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year in June, marking a five-year low, with expectations of continued economic challenges due to U.S. tariffs [1][8] - The new German government, under Merz, is aggressively pursuing fiscal expansion, including a €500 billion infrastructure fund and a proposed €1 trillion "Germany Fund" aimed at strategic sectors like defense and energy [1][2][3] - The German government plans to leverage public-private partnerships to mobilize significant investments in infrastructure and support for small and medium enterprises, addressing long-standing investment deficiencies [2][5] Group 2 - Germany's international competitiveness has declined significantly, with public investment as a percentage of GDP falling below the EU average, leading to an estimated investment gap of €400 billion to €600 billion [2][3] - The government aims to improve energy infrastructure and defense industries while enhancing control over critical raw materials and supply chains, aligning with market needs [2][3] - A large-scale investment initiative, "Investing for Germany," has been launched, committing €631 billion by 2028, involving major corporations like Siemens and Deutsche Bank [6][8] Group 3 - The recent U.S. tariff policies have created uncertainty in global trade, impacting investment decisions in Germany, which has experienced consecutive years of economic decline [7][9] - The German economy, heavily reliant on exports, faces significant challenges due to tariffs, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP reduction of 0.5% this year [9] - Despite the government's optimistic measures to stimulate the economy, the effectiveness of these initiatives remains uncertain, particularly in attracting private sector investment [6][7]

Group 1: Trade Policy - Trump's tariff policy has been a significant achievement, simplifying global trade negotiations into transactional deals, with tariffs used as leverage [3] - The EU and Japan have agreed to raise average tariffs on products exported to the U.S. from less than 2% to 15%, committing to invest billions in the U.S. over the coming years [3] - The use of tariffs has created a precedent where traditional trade rules are undermined, allowing for arbitrary adjustments based on personal relationships [3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The "Beautiful Big Law" has passed, projecting an additional $3 trillion in deficits over the next decade, pushing the total U.S. debt towards $40 trillion [5] - The strategy involves using tariffs to create an "industrial wall" while distributing consumer benefits through increased deficits, which may lead to global economic uncertainty [5] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Regulation - New legislation regarding cryptocurrencies mandates stablecoins to be backed by "safe assets," while leaving regulatory gaps that could benefit Trump's family's digital assets [7] - The lack of inquiry into potential conflicts of interest in Congress highlights a shift in the balance of power, with the executive branch gaining unilateral legislative authority [7] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Despite a lack of immediate alarm in economic fundamentals, there are signs of potential recession as non-farm payroll data has shown weakness, and the second-quarter GDP growth was 3% [9] - The annual tariff revenue of $300 billion has created a false sense of security among importers and consumers, masking the long-term impacts of tariff policies [9] Group 5: Financial Risks - The proliferation of unregulated cryptocurrencies poses significant financial risks, with leverage exceeding that of historical private banking practices [11] - The potential for inflation due to tariff wars could force the Federal Reserve into a difficult position, impacting the national debt significantly [11] Group 6: Institutional Integrity - The erosion of institutional checks and balances is concerning, as the President has bypassed Congress to adjust tariffs, undermining the separation of powers [11] - The normalization of declaring "national emergencies" for policy changes raises questions about the integrity of the decision-making process [11] Group 7: International Relations - Global tolerance for U.S. unilateralism is nearing a breaking point, with discussions in the EU about automatic retaliatory tariffs and Japan accelerating yen internationalization [13] - Political instability in the U.S. could lead to a backlash against tariffs, potentially fragmenting the global trade landscape [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Analyze the lead - zinc market from a global macro perspective, exploring the relationship between macro factors and lead - zinc, and the impact of "anti - involution" and fiscal policies on lead - zinc prices [1][6] - There are signs of endogenous kinetic energy repair, including the possible start of an active inventory replenishment cycle and improvement in PMI [36][39] - The central price of lead - zinc is related to GDP growth and industrial added - value [42][44] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Macro and Lead - Zinc Relationship - In terms of macro - attributes, the order is gold > copper > aluminum > zinc > lead, and lead has a very weak macro - attribute [4] - Analyze the relationship between lead - zinc and coal, copper, and use coal to understand "anti - involution" and copper to understand global fiscal policies [6] 3.2 "Anti - Involution" and Lead - Zinc Price Performance - Historically, during "supply - side reforms", lead - zinc often rose together with stocks and commodities. It is necessary to analyze the intensity of the current "anti - involution" [9] - From 2010 to 2025, lead and zinc prices showed different percentage changes during different "anti - involution" periods. For example, from 2016 - 2017, lead rose 141.6% and zinc rose 212.9%, while since July 2025, lead decreased 3.1% and zinc increased 2.2% [11] 3.3 Reasons for "Anti - Involution" - "Involution" refers to a vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources without overall revenue growth, and production factor prices deviate from value [15] - The purpose of "anti - involution" is to reverse the situation of "quantity increase and price decrease". In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, and the PPI - CPI gap continued to widen [18] 3.4 Fiscal Policies and Lead - Zinc Market - Fiscal policies are crucial as high resident and enterprise leverage ratios make fiscal policies determine the economic performance differences among countries. For example, China's exports are related to fiscal policies [30] - China's fiscal policy is continuously strengthening, and the US is also implementing fiscal expansion. Global major countries are all conducting fiscal expansion [33][34] 3.5 Endogenous Kinetic Energy Repair - There are signs of an active inventory replenishment cycle (profit increase and inventory increase), and PPI and industrial enterprise profits have basically bottomed out [38] - From the perspective of the difference between enterprise and resident deposits, PMI is expected to improve after the third quarter [41] 3.6 Determinants of Lead - Zinc Central Price - The IMF has raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 3% and predicts a slight recovery of global economic growth in 2025, which is related to the central price of lead - zinc [42] - Industrial added - value provides a more accurate perspective for determining the central price of lead - zinc [44]

Export Performance - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 7.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but the month-on-month growth rate is below the median of the past five years[3] - The rebound in export growth is primarily due to a lower base from the same period last year, while the month-on-month growth rate remains below the five-year median[6] - Exports to the US have decreased, but support from European recovery and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa has bolstered exports[7] Import Performance - China's import year-on-year growth rate in July exceeded expectations at 4.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, with month-on-month growth significantly above the five-year average[3] - The increase in imports is driven by continuous domestic production expansion and a notable drop in commodity prices from June, stimulating higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials[6] - Specific imports such as copper saw significant increases, with copper ore rising by 33.1% and unwrought copper by 11.3%[16] Economic Outlook - Despite a downward trend in export centrality, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by European fiscal expansion and potential unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, unexpected declines in demand from developed countries, and uncertainties in import-export policies[23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock indices as long - term substitutes can bring certain excess returns and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL contracts in the medium - to - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 6, A - share major indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.45% to 3633.99 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.64% to 11177.78 points; the ChiNext Index climbed by 0.66% to 2358.95 points; and the STAR 50 Index went up by 0.58% to 1059.76 points [2]. - Market trading volume was 1.7592 trillion yuan, an increase of 143.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Defense and military industry (+ 3.07%), machinery and equipment (+ 1.98%), and coal (+ 1.89%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (- 0.65%), commercial and retail (- 0.23%), and building materials (- 0.23%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3355, 246, and 1816 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 1.1 billion yuan, - 12.1 billion yuan, - 8.3 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 2.9 billion yuan, - 1.5 billion yuan, - 6.8 billion yuan, and + 5.3 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 98.71, 94.18, 16.49, and 1.22 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 10.9%, - 11.22%, - 3.04%, and - 0.33% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 31%, 12%, 30%, and 43% respectively [2]. - Detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts are presented in Table 1, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [4]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 6, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.396, down 1.2 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.557, down 0.6 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.644, down 0.22 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.988, up 0.19 bps [2]. - For the current active 2509 contracts, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 138.5 billion yuan and withdrew 309 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [2]. - Detailed performance data of various treasury bond futures contracts are presented in Table 2, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [6]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of various sectors is similar to the same period [9]. - Based on the comparison of domestic meso - level data with the same period in the past five years, the prosperity degree of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and import - export sectors is analyzed, as shown in Figure 2 [10][11].