周一（7月28日）亚盘时段，欧元/美元高位震荡整理，目前交投于1.1740，最新欧元兑美元汇率报 1.1741，涨幅0.01%，欧洲央行管理委员会委员、法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦表示，如果有必要，欧洲央行 必须准备好再次下调关键利率。 市场虽然仍预期年内会再次降息，但目前赋予的概率已降低。 一位官员表示，进一步降息的门槛"非常高"。 欧洲官员预计与美国达成的贸易协议可能会对出口商品征收15%的基础关税，以避免8月1日生效的30% 关税。 尽管欧洲央行周四会议后维持利率不变，行长拉加德称通胀已达2%目标，但维勒鲁瓦强调政策制定者 必须保持"灵活"。 维勒鲁瓦指出，欧元走强正产生显著的通缩效应。 此外，他认为美国对全球其他地区进口商品征收的更高关税，预计不会导致欧元区通胀上升。 维勒鲁瓦还提到，欧洲面临美国保护主义，必须加强经济和金融一体化。 上周五欧元/美元震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，今日欧元走势关注1.1850附近的压力情况，下方支撑在 1.1650附近。从日线图观察，欧元兑美元处于布林带中轨与上轨之间，表明汇价当前处于温和的上升通 道中。当前布林带中轨在1.1694附近，形成有效支撑；布林带上轨位于1.1844，为短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) can delay its final interest rate cut until December without worrying about premature market assumptions regarding the end of the easing cycle [2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Most respondents expect the deposit rate to be reduced by 25 basis points to 1.75% in September, while half of the economists believe that even if the ECB maintains rates in the following three meetings, traders will not immediately conclude that rates have bottomed out [2] - Approximately one-quarter of respondents believe the ECB has ended its rate-cutting cycle, while nearly half predict the last cut will occur in September, and 21% expect it to wait until December [3] - The ECB is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations for further easing in September and December [3] Group 2: Trade Policy and Economic Conditions - The progress of EU-US trade negotiations is a critical observation point that could disrupt the balance between domestic and external demand [4] - The ECB will be unable to signal whether further rate cuts are necessary or if the terminal rate has been reached before the upcoming meetings due to the lack of a trade agreement [4] - The ECB's June forecast indicated inflation stabilizing at 2% by 2027, with an average of only 1.6% expected for the following year [4] Group 3: Currency and Inflation Concerns - The euro has appreciated nearly 12% against the dollar this year, with ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warning that if the exchange rate exceeds 1.20, the economy may face challenges [5] - Economists show a higher tolerance for exchange rate pain points, with only about one-quarter agreeing with de Guindos' view, while others believe the warning threshold could be as high as 1.35 [6] - There are concerns that increased public spending may keep core inflation above target levels, and the ECB should not assume that core inflation will easily return to the target range [6]