据报道，日本央行委员野口旭表示，日本在实现通胀目标方面取得稳步进展。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

来源：金融界AI电报 日本央行审议委员野口旭：一旦供需状况趋紧并开始产生上行动能，物价持续上涨的现象并不少见，因 为企业会弥补此前成本转嫁滞后的缺口。核心通胀能否持续稳步迈向2%目标，完全取决于工资上涨的 动能能否持续，并向中小企业和地方经济扩散。若物价目标在展望报告预测期的下半年实现，日本央行 应以适当步伐调整利率，以与该时间表保持一致。这意味着要以适当的速度提高政策利率，使得在实现 2%的通胀目标时，能够平稳地达到中性利率。到目前为止，美国关税的影响有限。 若政策调整步伐过 快或过慢，都可能引发问题。过快加息或将削弱薪资增长势头，使2%通胀目标更加遥不可及。日本央 行在调整政策时应保持谨慎的另一个原因是，长期的通货紧缩和零通胀导致的零通胀惯性持续强劲。尽 管物价已连续三年多上涨超过2%，但通胀预期仍未达到2%。政策调整步伐过慢的问题在于，会增加经 济活动和物价失稳的风险。如果央行决定在物价达到目标之前完全不加息，那么除非一次性大幅上调政 策利率，否则通胀将难以控制。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，新西兰联储货币政策委员会周三将官方现金利率(OCR)下调25个基点至2.25%，为 三年来最低水平，以支撑初现端倪的经济复苏。这一结果符合大多数经济学家的预测。新西兰联储表 示："委员会注意到，下调OCR将有助于支撑消费者和企业信心，并抵御经济复苏速度可能低于实现通 胀目标所需水平的风险。未来OCR的调整将取决于中期通胀和经济前景的演变。" 由于通胀预计将放缓至新西兰联储1-3%目标区间的中段，大多数经济学家认为，政策制定者很可能已 经完成了本轮周期的宽松行动。但经济未能如预期那样对迄今实施的货币刺激做出反应的风险仍然存 在，这意味着如果有必要，新西兰联储仍须保留进一步降息的可能性。新西兰联储主席Christian Hawkesby将于当地时间下午3点举行新闻发布会，这将是他在Anna Breman于12月1日接任其职务前的最 后一次发布会。 根据会议记录，新西兰联储货币政策委员会以5比1的投票结果赞成降息25个基点，少数成员倾向于维持 利率不变。新西兰联储表示："主张维持OCR不变的理由强调，OCR迄今已大幅下调，其效果仍在经济 中持续传导。主张进一步下调OCR的理由则强调，经济中存在显 ...

美国旧金山联储主席戴利（2027年FOMC票委）：支持12月降息。美联储能将通胀降至2%这一目标。 就业市场是脆弱的，劳动力市场突然恶化的可能性更大。官员们的意见分歧折射出对不确定性的看法。 （华尔街日报） ...

威廉姆斯表示，美联储需要在不对"最大就业目标"造成过度风险的情况下，实现通胀目标。"我认为当 前的货币政策仍然是温和限制性的……因此，我仍然认为短期内有进一步调整利率的空间，使政策立场 更接近中性区间，从而维持我们两个政策目标之间的平衡。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月21日电美联储官员威廉姆斯表示，美联储可以在"近期"降息，而不会危及其通胀目 标。威廉姆斯在为智利央行一场活动准备的讲话中表示，通胀方面的进展暂时停滞，并补充说，通胀从 当前他估计约为2.75%的水平持续回到2%的长期目标"至关重要"。但他表示，随着关税影响在经济中逐 步消化且没有造成持续的通胀压力，价格压力预计将会缓解；与此同时，劳动力市场似乎正在走软，失 业率在9月升至 4.4%，这一水平与疫情前几年相当。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is facing significant turmoil as the government prepares a large-scale economic stimulus plan, raising concerns about fiscal health and leading to a sell-off in government bonds [1][3][6] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.8%, the highest level since 2008, indicating a significant sell-off in the bond market [1][3] - The 40-year bond yield reached a historical peak of 3.695%, while the 20-year bond yield hit 2.815%, the highest since 1999 [1] - The anticipated issuance of long-term bonds to finance the stimulus plan is seen as a primary driver for the rising yields [3][6] Group 2: Economic Stimulus Plan - The Japanese government is finalizing a stimulus plan exceeding 20 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD) to boost the economy [1] - Reports suggest that the supplementary budget could be at least 25 trillion yen (approximately 168 billion USD), raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal position [3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar, falling below 157 yen per dollar, reflecting market anxiety [3] - The Nikkei 225 index has experienced significant declines, erasing most gains since the new Prime Minister's election [3][4] Group 4: Broader Economic Concerns - Japan's GDP contracted by an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, indicating ongoing economic challenges [4] - Investor sentiment has been further dampened by the cancellation of the primary fiscal balance target and proposed changes to corporate governance rules [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts warn that the upcoming announcement of the fiscal stimulus plan could trigger further sell-offs in Japanese assets, highlighting the fragility of the current market [6] - Concerns are growing that Japan may face a scenario similar to the UK under Liz Truss, with simultaneous declines in the stock market, bond market, and currency [6]

| 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 89700 | -725 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 86011 | -5206 | | | 中工美供应链 | 276199 | -3373 | | | 合计 | 451910 | -9304 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 83180 | -3291 | | 总计 | | 535090 | -12595 | 【基本面消息】 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货11月20日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计535090千克，今日仓单较上一 日下跌12595千克。 会议记录显示，上月降息决定并非一边倒。"许多与会委员"虽然赞成小幅下调联邦基金利率目标区间， 但同时强调，如果保持利率不变，他们也会感到满意。还有几位委员直接投下反对票，他们对实现2% 通胀目标的进展停滞表示强烈担忧，认为如果通胀不能及时回落，长期通胀预期可能会脱锔上升，导致 高通胀彻底根深蒂固。 沪银主力短线维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报12290元/千克，最高触及12306元/千克，最低触及 11912元/千克，截止收盘报12050元 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在日元汇率跌至大约10个月以来最低位之后，日本央行货币政策委员会成员小枝淳子在谈到 有必要推动货币政策正常化时，释放出日本央行最早可能在下个月重启加息的重磅信号。这意味着在日元汇率 (兑美元)持续下跌之际，日本央行终于坐不住了——当前日元汇率位于1月以来最低且距离自去年7月以来的最弱 水平仅一步之遥，紧急派出代表放出鹰派言论稳住日元汇率。 据了解，小枝淳子周四在日本北部新潟向当地企业界领袖发表讲话时表示："鉴于当前实际利率处于显著偏低的 水平，我认为日本央行需要及时推进利率正常化进程。" 从日本央行货币政策委员会的鹰鸽成员阵营对照表来看，小枝淳子显然属于立场较强硬的鹰派阵营，不过小枝的 最新言论看似意在日元汇率持续走弱之际传递鹰派信息来维持日元稳定。然而日元兑美元却进一步走低，这表明 外汇市场交易员们或许在期待接下来日本央行官员们在日元走弱时期更为强硬的表态。 日本央行观察人士普遍预计，日本央行最迟不会晚于明年1月重启加息进程，隔夜掉期市场的最新定价显示，对 下个月采取货币政策行动的市场押注正在大幅降温。由于市场愈发相信美联储下个月不会降息，叠加市场惧怕崇 尚"安倍经济学"的高市早苗欲推出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's latest interest rate meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, meaning a December rate cut is highly unlikely, and the market risk appetite remains volatile while the US dollar rebounds [1][12][19]. - Against the backdrop of the Ministry of Finance's early allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects, the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, but the market style is chaotic and risk - averse trading persists. It is recommended to reduce long positions [2][22]. - The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is advisable to view the market from a volatile perspective [3][25]. - The EPA's re - emphasis on increasing RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains unrelieved. For industrial silicon, it is advisable to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [4]. - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined with a reduction in risk premium [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue accelerated by 62% year - on - year, and its Q4 revenue guidance also exceeded expectations. However, the Fed's internal officials have significant differences on a December rate cut, and the market's rate - cut expectation remains low. It is recommended to wait for the release of non - farm payroll data to see the market's new direction [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's meeting minutes show serious internal differences. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, but in the short term, there is a lack of direct positive factors for a new wave of upward movement. It is expected that gold prices will fluctuate widely around $4000, with increased long - short competition [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine. The Fed's meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, so a December rate cut is unlikely. The US dollar index is expected to rebound [16][17][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance has advanced the allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, and technology stocks underperformed. It is recommended to reduce long positions instead of chasing the market [21][22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile perspective [24][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - USDA reported that private exporters sold 330,000 tons of soybeans to China, and a 30,000 - ton shipment of Argentine soybean meal cleared customs in China. It is expected that futures prices will likely remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and weather conditions in South American production areas [27][28][29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of 24 - degree palm oil in South China has risen significantly. The EPA's re - emphasis on RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance level of 9000 yuan/ton [30][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The workload of construction machinery increased in October, and the retail and wholesale of passenger cars from November 1 - 16 showed different trends. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to view them from a volatile perspective [32][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Xinjiang has slightly declined. The futures market is volatile. It is recommended to operate with caution and pay attention to upstream procurement [35][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch has slightly decreased, and inventory has been reduced. It is expected that the price difference between 01 futures and rice flour will fluctuate, and it is advisable to conduct band trading [37][38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot corn market shows a pattern of strength in the south and weakness in the north. In the short term, the near - month contracts may not experience a significant decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies for 03 and 05 contracts when the situation becomes clear [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The 2026 medium - and long - term coal contracts have been signed, with the supply guarantee ratio and long - term contract price basically the same as in 2025. It is expected that coal prices will continue to fluctuate around 800 yuan [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production and sales of air conditioners in December are expected to decline. The fundamentals of iron ore remain stable with a volatile trend. Although the supply pressure is high and port inventories are increasing, the risk of a sharp decline is reduced [43]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Tangrenshen terminated a fixed - increase project. In the short term, it is advisable to short - sell LH2601 and LH2603 on price rallies, and in the long term, pay attention to the opportunity to build long positions for LH2607 and distant - month contracts at low prices [44][45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - From January to October 2025, solar power generation increased. The polysilicon spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to return to a volatile market, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [46][48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Organic silicon manufacturers plan to jointly reduce production and adjust prices. Although the price of industrial silicon has risen, the reduction in organic silicon production is negative for industrial silicon. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [49][52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a downward trend, and the trading volume of domestic lead contracts has decreased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and cross - border trading [54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market is volatile, and domestic social inventories have decreased. It is recommended to manage positions well for long positions, continue to hold positive - spread arbitrage positions, and manage positions for cross - border arbitrage [55][56]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel - related transaction has occurred. The nickel market is fundamentally weak and technically bearish. In the short term, the price may continue to decline or rebound depending on production cuts. In the medium term, attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply - contraction actions [57][58][59]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma has adjusted its lithium mine production. The lithium carbonate market has strong short - term support, but the demand is expected to weaken from the end of the year to Q1 2026. It is not recommended to chase long positions, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies can be considered [61][62][63]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined. It is expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend [64][65]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased, and the supply has tightened. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol port and production enterprise inventories have decreased, but the port inventory decline is due to low arrivals. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on price rebounds, with a profit - taking target around 2000 yuan/ton [68][69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - South Korea's pure benzene exports from November 1 - 10 showed certain trends. The styrene market is affected by external factors, and it is recommended to view it from a volatile perspective in the short term [70][71]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has been slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply reduction will occur due to profit compression [72][73][74]. 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Germany will impose a 23% tax on Chinese cross - border small packages. The container freight market is currently weak, but with the approaching long - term contract season, the price may be supported. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile range perspective and look for short - long opportunities for the 02 contract on price dips [75][76].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes reveal strong divisions among officials regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with increasing concerns that progress on inflation has stalled [2][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points in the previous meeting, marking the second consecutive cut, with a 10-2 vote [3]. - Chairman Powell indicated that a December rate cut is not a "foregone conclusion" [3]. - Many officials expressed opposition to further cuts, fearing that the 2% inflation target progress has stagnated, which could lead to rising long-term inflation expectations [3]. Economic Outlook - Officials are concerned about the uncertainty in the economic outlook, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting economic assessments [4]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 will determine the future interest rate policy [5]. Challenges Faced by the Fed - The Fed is currently facing multiple challenges, including interruptions in official data releases and conflicting signals from existing information [6]. - The absence of employment data prior to the next meeting adds to the uncertainty regarding monetary policy decisions [6]. Market Expectations - Investor expectations for a December rate cut have significantly decreased from over 90% to 32.8% [2][6]. - Macro strategist Boris Schlossberg noted that unless there are significant changes in the economic landscape, the likelihood of a rate cut in December is diminishing [7].