Global Asset Performance - Global stock markets remain under pressure, with major U.S. indices collectively declining this week[3] - 10-year U.S., German, and Japanese bond yields increased by 5, 12, and 12 basis points respectively[3] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.1% and 6.2% respectively due to easing geopolitical tensions[3] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.7%, while other non-U.S. currencies weakened against the dollar[3] Major Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction will be a long-term process, influenced by bank reserve demand[4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) aims to unconditionally maintain a 2% inflation target and is prepared to adjust policies as needed[4] - The Bank of Japan indicates a gradual interest rate hike if economic indicators remain favorable[4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Composite PMI fell to 51.4, the lowest in nearly a year, indicating signs of economic cooling[5] - The U.S. Economic Sentiment Index dropped sharply to -28.7, a decline of 23.6 percentage points from February, marking the largest monthly drop since the pandemic[5] - Service sector contraction is a major drag on economic performance, while manufacturing shows slight stabilization[5] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone PMI unexpectedly dropped to 50.5, below the expected 51, with service sector PMI falling to 50.1[6] - Japan's core CPI rose by 1.6% year-on-year, below the expected 1.7%, indicating lower inflation pressures[6] Upcoming Focus - Key upcoming data includes China's manufacturing PMI on March 31, Eurozone CPI, and U.S. non-farm payroll data on April 3[7] Risk Alerts - Potential risks include tighter-than-expected monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, greater-than-expected U.S. economic downturn, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of zinc provide support, and the price is stabilizing [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,705 yuan/ton, down 2.66%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,132.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.11% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 128,770 lots, an increase of 24,650 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 16,533 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 104,612 lots, an increase of 38,701 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 208,797 lots, an increase of 607 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium and discount of Shanghai 0 zinc was -85 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -41.47 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.7 US dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 102,604 tons, an increase of 1,341 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 117,850 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [1] 2. News - The European Central Bank has kept interest rates unchanged at 2% for the sixth consecutive time. Due to the Middle East conflict, its policy stance has become tougher. Traders have reduced their bets on ECB rate hikes, expecting a 61 - basis - point increase by the end of the year [2] - The bond market's expectation of the Fed's policy path has changed from rate cuts to rate hikes. The unexpected hawkish stance of the Bank of England and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims have led to the elimination of the Fed's rate - cut expectations [2][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed reservations about further interest rate hikes during a recent meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, potentially complicating the central bank's timeline for monetary policy adjustments [1][3]. Group 1: Government and Central Bank Relations - Kishida's stance indicates a more dovish position compared to the previous November meeting, emphasizing the need for close cooperation between the central bank and the government to achieve a sustainable 2% inflation target alongside wage increases [3]. - The meeting was described by Ueda as an exchange of opinions on economic and financial developments, with no specific monetary policy requests made by Kishida [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Investors were surprised by Kishida's reported reluctance to support interest rate hikes, which increased the perceived risk of the Bank of Japan delaying its tightening policy [4]. - Following Kishida's party's overwhelming victory in the House of Representatives elections, the yen had previously strengthened as investors anticipated clearer policy direction and reduced fiscal risks [4]. Group 3: Future Projections and Speculations - If Kishida were to propose a cap on interest rates at 0.75%, it would be more dovish than market expectations, potentially leading to yen weakness and rising Japanese government bond yields [5]. - Current swap trading indicates a 59% probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates before the April meeting, with many economists now predicting a hike as early as April due to ongoing currency weakness and its inflationary effects [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that uncertainty in the U.S. economy persists, particularly influenced by the technology sector [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains a cautiously optimistic stance regarding the economy returning to its inflation target, while acknowledging ongoing inflationary risks [1] - Concerns exist that economic demand may exceed supply, contributing to inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The employment market is stabilizing, which supports the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged in January [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member Mann indicates that the central bank is approaching a critical point in balancing monetary policy between inflation targets and full employment [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The current situation regarding core inflation is not as favorable as expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are concerned that political interference may weaken the Federal Reserve's ability to manage interest rates, which diminishes confidence in the US dollar and supports gold prices amid rising geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 1: US Dollar and Federal Reserve - The US dollar has gained strength, reaching a one-week high, primarily due to the hawkish Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting [2]. - The Minutes indicate a division among Fed officials regarding the need for potential rate cuts, with some advocating for cuts if inflation decreases, while others caution against premature cuts that could jeopardize the 2% inflation target [3]. - Strong US economic data, including better-than-expected industrial production and significant manufacturing output growth, has further supported the dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher [3][4]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are currently below the $5,000 level, influenced by the strengthening US dollar and the Fed's hawkish stance [2]. - Despite the dollar's strength, gold is receiving support from escalating global tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which has seen little progress in diplomatic talks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, emphasizes the need for close cooperation between the government and the Bank of Japan to achieve a sustainable 2% inflation target amid wage growth [1] Group 1 - The Prime Minister expressed her desire for the Bank of Japan to continue implementing appropriate monetary policies [1] - The focus is on achieving stable inflation driven by wage growth rather than cost-push factors [1] - The Prime Minister held a routine meeting with the Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, to discuss the economic and financial situation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth targets set during the local two sessions for 2026 indicate a slight downward adjustment, with a weighted target growth rate of 5.03%, down from 5.27% last year, but still above 5% [2] Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at a weighted average of 5.03%, slightly lower than the previous year's 5.27%. Out of the provinces, 12 maintained their targets, 18 lowered them, and only Jiangxi increased its target slightly. Major provinces like Beijing and Shanghai kept their targets at 5%, while Guangdong and Zhejiang shifted to a range target with a slight decrease [2] - The possibility exists for the national GDP target to be adjusted from 5% to a range of 4.5-5% due to the adjustments made by 7 provinces [2] Inflation and Employment Goals - Inflation and employment targets remain stable, with the national CPI target expected to stay at 2% and the urban unemployment rate maintained in the 5-5.5% range. The focus remains on stabilizing prices and employment [3] Investment and Consumption Goals - The average target growth rate for retail sales is set at 4.71%, down by 0.6 percentage points from last year, with 15 out of 21 provinces lowering their targets. The emphasis has shifted from short-term stimulus to upgrading consumption structure and boosting service consumption [3] - For fixed asset investment, 15 provinces set quantitative growth targets, with 13 provinces lowering their targets, resulting in a weighted average growth rate decrease from 5.9% to 4.9%. The focus is now on improving investment quality and efficiency, particularly in technology and public welfare investments [3] Real Estate Market - Several provinces mentioned efforts to stabilize the real estate market, including encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing and promoting urban renewal. However, the specifics on urban renewal initiatives were limited [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the deposit rate at 2%, marking the longest period of policy stability since the end of the negative interest rate era, with most economists predicting this will continue at least until the end of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Policy Stability - The current pause in interest rate adjustments has officially become the longest period of policy stability since the ECB abandoned negative interest rates, indicating a balance between supporting economic recovery and achieving the 2% inflation target [2] - The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven approach for future policy decisions, without pre-committing to specific interest rate directions [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Eurozone inflation dropped to 1.7% in January, the lowest in 16 months, prompting some policymakers to warn against excessive caution regarding price stability, although the overall economy remains resilient [1] - The extended period of stable interest rates is expected to provide a stable monetary environment for the Eurozone economy, highlighting the ECB's challenges in navigating a complex economic landscape [1][2] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market has fully priced in the ECB's expectations for maintaining the current interest rate, as evidenced by recent trends in Eurozone bond yields and foreign exchange markets [3] - The prolonged period of rate stability suggests that the financing environment will remain stable in the foreseeable future, aiding financial decision-making for businesses and households [3] - Market focus is shifting from "whether to pause" to "when to shift," with any incremental signals regarding future policy paths, particularly concerning economic growth and inflation outlooks, likely to trigger market volatility [3]

Group 1: International News - The international precious metals market is experiencing significant upward trends, with spot gold prices breaking through $5030, $5040, and $5050 per ounce, with daily increases of 0.20%, 0.34%, and 0.53% respectively [1][2][3] - New York futures gold also rose, surpassing $5050, $5060, and $5070 per ounce, with daily gains of 0.39%, 0.63%, and 0.78% respectively [4][5][6] - The silver market showed similar activity, with spot silver and New York futures silver both breaking $81 per ounce, daily increases of 0.43% and 0.82%, but later retreated, with spot silver falling below $80 per ounce, a daily drop of 3.98% [7][8][9][10] - In the foreign exchange market, the USD/JPY exchange rate fell by 1.07%, currently at 154.20 [11] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing increased volatility, with Bitcoin prices dropping below $68,000, a daily decline of 3.13% [12] Group 3: U.S. Economic Policy - President Trump made several statements regarding economic policy, suggesting that U.S. interest rates should be 2 percentage points lower and expressing hope for the Supreme Court to support low-interest rate policies [13][14][15][16] - The Federal Reserve official Hamark emphasized that achieving a 2% inflation target is crucial for future interest rate adjustments, indicating that the Fed's rate policy may remain unchanged for a considerable time [19][20][21] - Strategists from State Street believe the Fed may have three rate cuts this year, predicting a potential 10% decline in the dollar, while the market currently anticipates two rate cuts [22] Group 4: Energy Market - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 13.4 million barrels last week, compared to a previous decrease of 11.079 million barrels [23] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that OPEC+ will not increase production next year [24] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Blackstone plans to invest $200 million in ANTHROPIC [25] - CME Group will launch single-stock futures [26] - Google received EU antitrust approval for a $32 billion acquisition of Wiz [27] Group 6: Stock Market Performance - Spotify's stock surged by 15.8% after exceeding first-quarter profit forecasts, potentially marking the largest single-day increase since October 2019 [28] - Major tech stocks in the U.S. saw gains, with Netflix up over 3%, Disney nearly 3%, Oracle and Salesforce over 2%, Microsoft and TSMC nearly 2%, and Tesla over 1% [29] Group 7: Domestic Market - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index showed active performance, rising over 1% at one point, with notable gains in several Chinese concept stocks, including Dingdong Maicai up 16.97% and Yikaton Technology up 10.71%, ultimately closing up 0.88% [36][37][38] - In the domestic futures market, silver's continuous main contract fell by 2% to 20,142.00 yuan [39]