Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Euro is trading around 1.16 against the US dollar, with a slight increase of 0.01% as of the latest update [1] - Barclays economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain the deposit rate at 2.0% on September 11 to address changing risk considerations [1] - The ECB is likely to reiterate that the risks to growth prospects are skewed to the downside, particularly due to the negative demand shock from US tariffs, although the risk of EU retaliation has dissipated [1] Group 2 - The ECB may revise its average GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 0.9% to 1.2%, while lowering the 2026 forecast from 1.1% to 1.0% [1] - The daily chart shows the Euro to USD Bollinger Bands with the middle band at 1.1669, indicating the price is testing around this level [2] - The MACD indicates limited momentum with a slight convergence of the lines near the zero axis, suggesting a sideways trend [2]

今年第一季度，欧元在全球外汇储备中的占比稳定在20%左右，但小型储备管理者已成为欧元的新需求 来源。尽管今年以来欧元在SWIFT国际支付中的份额停滞不前，但新兴市场以欧元发行了大量债券，且 外国投资者在欧洲央行退出购债计划后积极购买欧元区债券。机构数据显示，外国投资者在5月至6月期 间购买了约1860亿欧元的欧元区债券和460亿欧元的股票。尽管欧元区政府债券中外国持有者的比例 （约22%）仍远低于美国国债（34%），但自量化紧缩开始以来，该比例从19%的上升表明外国投资者 正在吸收债券销售，从而有助于抑制收益率上涨。机构强调，尽管存在这些积极迹象，但欧元能否成为 美元的有力替代者，仍取决于欧洲政治家能否推出可信的改革措施。 K线形态上，欧元兑美元近两日阳线实体偏多、影线较短，显示拉升以趋势推进为主，尚未出现典型 的"流星线、墓碑线"等见顶信号；若后市在1.1674—1.1686区间连续留下长上影，则意味着上档抛压开 始显性化。多头路径(偏短线)：只要汇价维持在布林中轨上方，且MACD维持在零轴上方，汇价有望围 绕上轨反复抬升并挑战1.1674—1.1686区间的阻力带；若数据配合，向上扩展空间将打开，随后关注 ...

Currency and Economic Outlook - Citic Securities predicts that the RMB exchange rate may require more catalysts to break the 7 level, despite a recent appreciation driven by external and internal factors [1] - Goldman Sachs expects an acceleration in trading activity in France despite political turmoil, indicating that France remains an attractive investment destination [2] - MUFG analysts believe that the current political situation in France is unlikely to disrupt the upward trend of the euro [3] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK 30-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 1998, raising concerns about public finance sustainability [3] Inflation and Interest Rates - CICC forecasts that the US inflation rate may continue to rise, impacting the bond market dynamics [4] - Huatai Securities emphasizes that a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive down real interest rates in the US, benefiting gold investments [5] - The analysis suggests that unless the US economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario, the current gold buying strategy may persist [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that typical gold companies currently have favorable valuations and are expected to benefit significantly from rising gold prices and increased production [5] - The narrowing gold-silver ratio is anticipated to occur after a period of monetary easing, suggesting potential investment opportunities in silver if the economy stabilizes post-rate cuts [5]

周一（7月28日）亚盘时段，欧元/美元高位震荡整理，目前交投于1.1740，最新欧元兑美元汇率报 1.1741，涨幅0.01%，欧洲央行管理委员会委员、法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦表示，如果有必要，欧洲央行 必须准备好再次下调关键利率。 市场虽然仍预期年内会再次降息，但目前赋予的概率已降低。 一位官员表示，进一步降息的门槛"非常高"。 欧洲官员预计与美国达成的贸易协议可能会对出口商品征收15%的基础关税，以避免8月1日生效的30% 关税。 尽管欧洲央行周四会议后维持利率不变，行长拉加德称通胀已达2%目标，但维勒鲁瓦强调政策制定者 必须保持"灵活"。 维勒鲁瓦指出，欧元走强正产生显著的通缩效应。 此外，他认为美国对全球其他地区进口商品征收的更高关税，预计不会导致欧元区通胀上升。 维勒鲁瓦还提到，欧洲面临美国保护主义，必须加强经济和金融一体化。 上周五欧元/美元震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，今日欧元走势关注1.1850附近的压力情况，下方支撑在 1.1650附近。从日线图观察，欧元兑美元处于布林带中轨与上轨之间，表明汇价当前处于温和的上升通 道中。当前布林带中轨在1.1694附近，形成有效支撑；布林带上轨位于1.1844，为短 ...