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股指继续窄幅震荡整理
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 12:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock indices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The total trading volume of the stock market was 1405.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The main support for the stock indices comes from the expectation of favorable policies in the future. Due to the instability of domestic demand and the weak performance of credit and inflation data, the policy side needs to introduce policies to support economic demand. The market is concerned about the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. Since the stock indices have risen significantly since late June, the short - term upward momentum has weakened, and the recent decline in trading volume indicates that the market's enthusiasm for chasing up has cooled down. In general, the short - term driving force of the market has weakened, and the stock indices are expected to fluctuate within a range. - Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. In the medium and long term, the stock indices are more likely to rise, and bull spreads or ratio spreads long - position portfolios can be arranged [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On July 2, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.21% to close at 2.816; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.10% to close at 3.992; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.02% to close at 4.117; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.02% to close at 3943.68; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.01% to close at 6309.48; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.59% to close at 5.947; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.54% to close at 2.377; the ChiNext ETF fell 1.03% to close at 2.104; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.33% to close at 2.722; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.18% to close at 2722.55; the STAR 50ETF fell 1.24% to close at 1.04; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.18% to close at 1.01 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on July 2, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in July 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided, such as the implied volatility of 50ETF options at - the - money options in July 2025 is 11.88%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 8.36% [8][9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [10][11][12]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [22][23]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [25][26]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [39][40]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [52][53]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [66][67]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [79][80]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Include charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [91][92]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [104][105]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [117][118]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [131][132]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [134][135].
市场情绪偏谨慎,股指震荡回调
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 11:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On June 19, 2025, stock indices oscillated and declined. The probability of the US getting involved in the Middle East has increased, raising the risk of an escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis, which has suppressed the risk appetite of the stock market. Domestically, although consumption data showed resilience under national subsidy policies, weak credit and inflation data indicated insufficient endogenous growth momentum in domestic demand, leading to an increased expectation of policy support. However, the profit expectation of stocks has not been repaired yet, and the support for stock indices mainly comes from loose capital and risk appetite. New incremental policies are needed for stock indices to continue rising. There are still uncertainties externally, such as the evolution of the tariff war after the suspension period ends in early July and the development of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis. In the short term, market risk appetite tends to be defensive, and stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range, waiting for new driving forces. Since the implied volatility of options is at a relatively low historical quantile level and the support for stock indices is strong, bull spreads or ratio spreads long - position portfolios can be arranged [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - On June 19, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.62% to 2.733; 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.79% to 3.873; 300ETF (SZSE) fell 0.87% to 3.995; CSI 300 Index fell 0.82% to 3843.09; CSI 1000 Index fell 1.42% to 6048.22; 500ETF (SSE) fell 1.00% to 5.718; 500ETF (SZSE) fell 1.13% to 2.285; ChiNext ETF fell 1.43% to 2.005; Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.08% to 2.645; SSE 50 Index fell 0.54% to 2665.52; STAR 50ETF fell 0.59% to 1.01; E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.40% to 0.99 [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 103.41 (previous day: 91.03), and the position PCR was 87.00 (previous day: 90.00) [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in June 2025 or July 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of underlying assets were provided for different options. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in June 2025 was 11.64%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 8.44% [7] 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Included charts of SSE 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][11][13] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][22][23] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [23][25][27] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of CSI 300 Index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [35][37][39] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of CSI 1000 Index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [48][50][52] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [62][64][66] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [76][78][80] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Included charts of ChiNext ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [89][91][93] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [102][104][106] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Included charts of SSE 50 Index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [115][117][119] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [128][130][132] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [131][133][136]
股指支撑力量较强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 11:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated within a narrow range. Although the uncertainty of overseas tariffs has increased, its marginal impact is gradually weakening. Domestic macro - economic indicators have weakened marginally, leading to an increased expectation of policy - side benefits in the market. With the rising expectation of policy benefits, the market sentiment is positive and optimistic, and the short - term downside risk of stock indices is small. However, overseas uncertainties and weak domestic demand suppress the upward momentum of stock indices from the aspects of risk preference and profit expectation respectively, making it easy for the upward movement of stock indices to encounter resistance. The policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 and its game with market expectations can be regarded as a turning point in the market. In general, the upward and downward spaces of current stock indices are both limited, and it is expected that stock indices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. [4] - Currently, the implied volatility of options is at a relatively low historical quantile level. Considering the strong support of stock indices, bull spread or ratio spread long positions can be arranged. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On June 6, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.07% to close at 2.756; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.05% to close at 3.986; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.07% to close at 4.021; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.09% to close at 3873.98; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.23% to close at 6152.84; 500ETF (SSE) rose 0.02% to close at 5.785; 500ETF (SZSE) fell 0.04% to close at 2.309; the ChiNext ETF fell 0.30% to close at 2.017; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.11% to close at 2.673; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.12% to close at 2688.85; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.38% to close at 1.05; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.39% to close at 1.02. [6] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on June 6, 2025, and their comparison with the previous trading day are provided in detail, such as the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options being 84.80 (previous trading day: 83.04), and the position PCR being 94.15 (previous trading day: 94.86). [7] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in June 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, for example, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in June 2025 is 12.32%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 8.37%. [8] 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [10][11][12] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Comprise charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [20][21] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Contain charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [23][24] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 300 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [36][37] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Comprise charts of CSI 1000 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [49][50] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Contain charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [62][63] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [74][75] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Comprise charts of ChiNext ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [86][87] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Contain charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [99][100] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of SSE 50 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [112][113] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Comprise charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [124][125] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Contain charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [129][130]
外部消息面利多提振,股指震荡反弹
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 13:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indexes rose rapidly in the early morning, but their subsequent trends diverged. CSI 1000 and CSI 500 remained stable at high levels, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 fell from their highs and gave back some gains. The total turnover of the stock market was 121.34 billion yuan, an increase of 17.95 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [3]. - The US International Trade Court blocked the tariff policy announced by US President Trump on April 2, and ruled that Trump overstepped his authority. The legal challenges faced by the US government's tariff policy eased tariff concerns and boosted the risk appetite of the stock market. However, the tariff issue still faces significant uncertainties in the later stage, and the final ruling may require the intervention of the US Supreme Court. Therefore, the impact of this news on market sentiment is short - term [3]. - Currently, the upside and downside spaces of stock indexes are relatively limited. The policy support and the need to stabilize stock market expectations have a strong supporting effect, while external uncertainties and weak domestic demand suppress the upward momentum of stock indexes from the aspects of risk appetite and profit expectations respectively. It is expected that stock indexes will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [3]. - The implied volatility of options is currently within the normal range, and the implied volatility of options has rebounded recently. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indexes, bull spreads or ratio spreads long portfolios can be arranged [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Option Indicators - On May 29, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.25% to close at 2.754; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.61% to close at 3.966; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.58% to close at 3.999; SSE 300 Index rose 0.59% to close at 3858.70; CSI 1000 Index rose 1.76% to close at 6089.58; 500ETF (SSE) rose 1.42% to close at 5.727; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 1.46% to close at 2.289; ChiNext ETF rose 1.53% to close at 1.989; Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.95% to close at 2.667; SSE 50 Index rose 0.29% to close at 2690.89; STAR 50ETF rose 1.66% to close at 1.04; E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.60% to close at 1.01 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on May 29, 2025 and the previous trading day are provided, showing the changes in trading volume and position ratios of different options [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in June 2025 and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, reflecting the volatility characteristics of different options [7][8] 2. Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided for different types of options, including the trends, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms of SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, SSE 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [9][20][23]