Workflow
比例价差看多组合
icon
Search documents
股指继续窄幅震荡整理
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 12:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock indices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The total trading volume of the stock market was 1405.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The main support for the stock indices comes from the expectation of favorable policies in the future. Due to the instability of domestic demand and the weak performance of credit and inflation data, the policy side needs to introduce policies to support economic demand. The market is concerned about the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. Since the stock indices have risen significantly since late June, the short - term upward momentum has weakened, and the recent decline in trading volume indicates that the market's enthusiasm for chasing up has cooled down. In general, the short - term driving force of the market has weakened, and the stock indices are expected to fluctuate within a range. - Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. In the medium and long term, the stock indices are more likely to rise, and bull spreads or ratio spreads long - position portfolios can be arranged [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On July 2, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.21% to close at 2.816; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.10% to close at 3.992; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.02% to close at 4.117; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.02% to close at 3943.68; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.01% to close at 6309.48; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.59% to close at 5.947; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.54% to close at 2.377; the ChiNext ETF fell 1.03% to close at 2.104; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.33% to close at 2.722; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.18% to close at 2722.55; the STAR 50ETF fell 1.24% to close at 1.04; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.18% to close at 1.01 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on July 2, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in July 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided, such as the implied volatility of 50ETF options at - the - money options in July 2025 is 11.88%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 8.36% [8][9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [10][11][12]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [22][23]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [25][26]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [39][40]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [52][53]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [66][67]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [79][80]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Include charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [91][92]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [104][105]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [117][118]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [131][132]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [134][135].
市场情绪偏谨慎,股指震荡回调
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 11:07
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 19 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪偏谨慎,股指震荡回调 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡回调。消息面,美国下场概率上升,中东地缘危机 升级的风险上升,避险情绪抑制股市风险偏好。国内宏观方面,虽然消费数 据在国补政策下表现韧性,但是信贷、通胀等数据表现偏弱表明内需的内生 性增长动能有所不足,未来仍需要更多托底需求的政策出台,政策利好预期 上升。不过目前股票盈利预期仍未修复,支撑股指的力量主要来自于宽松的 资金面以及风险偏好,股指继续上行需要新的增量政策出台。外部方面不确 定性仍存,7 月初关税战面临暂缓期结束之后如何演变的不确定性,中东地 缘危机如何演变也具有不确定性,短期内市场风险偏好偏向防御。总的来 说,短期内股指区间震荡为主,等待新的驱动力量。 作者声明:本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书,期货投资咨询资格证书, 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度, 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研 ...
股指支撑力量较强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 11:35
金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 6 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 股指支撑力量较强 核心观点 今日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。目前海外关税不确定性扰动升温,不过 其边际影响逐渐减弱;而国内宏观经济指标边际走弱,市场对未来政策面利 好预期升温。目前政策利好预期升温,市场情绪偏向积极乐观,短期内股 指下行风险较小。另一方面,海外不确定性风险以及内需走弱则分别从风 险偏好以及盈利预期两方面抑制股指的上行动能,股指上行容易遭受阻 力。市场变盘节点可以关注 6 月 18 日陆家嘴论坛的政策指引与市场预期的 博弈。总的来说,当前股指上行空间与下行空间均较为有限,预计短期内 股指维持区间震荡。 目前期权隐含波动率位于偏低的历史分位数水平,考虑到股指支撑较 强,可以布局牛市价差或比例价差看多组合。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明:本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 ...
外部消息面利多提振,股指震荡反弹
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 13:31
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 29 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 外部消息面利多提振,股指震荡反弹 核心观点 今日各股指早盘均快速上涨,不过之后走势间有所分化,中证 1000 与 中证 500 高位平稳运行,上证 50 与沪深 300 则高位回落,回吐部分涨幅。 股市全市场成交额 12134 亿元,较上日放量 1795 亿元,说明市场情绪有所 回升。消息面,美国国际贸易法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在 4 月 2 日宣布 的关税政策生效,并裁定特朗普越权,对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全 面关税。美国政府关税政策面临的法律挑战,缓解了关税担忧,提升了股票 市场风险偏好。不过关税问题后期面临的变数仍较大,最终裁决或需要美国 最高法院介入,因此该消息对市场情绪的影响偏向短线。总的来说,目前股 指上行空间以及下行空间均较为有限,政策面托底需求以及稳定股市预期 的支撑作用较强,而外部不确定性风险以及内需走弱则分别从风险偏好以 及盈利预期两方面抑制股指的上行动能。预计短期内股指维持区间震荡。 目前期权隐含波动率处于正常区间范围,近期期权隐含波动率有所回 升。 ...