民爆行业商业模式转变

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民爆行业深度报告:需求端稳增韧性强,政策驱动供给深整合
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-30 15:27
Industry Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the civil explosives industry [1] Core Insights - The civil explosives industry is characterized by stable demand growth, strong resilience, and policy-driven supply-side consolidation [2][3] - The market size for civil explosives in China is approximately 400 billion [2] - The production value of civil explosive enterprises reached 416.95 billion in 2024, with a profit total of 96.39 billion, indicating a profit growth of 13.04% year-on-year [14][19] - The industry is transitioning from product sales to integrated operations, including research, production, sales, import-export, and blasting services [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Civil explosives are essential in energy and infrastructure industries, with a significant role in mining and construction [2][3] - The production value of civil explosive enterprises in 2024 was 416.95 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, while profits increased by 13.04% [14][19] Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift towards higher concentration, with the CR20 increasing from 50.5% in 2013 to 83.17% in 2024 [2][48] - The demand for civil explosives is regionally concentrated, with notable growth in Xinjiang due to coal and hydropower projects [3] Production and Sales - In 2024, the total production and sales of industrial explosives were 449 million tons and 448.5 million tons, respectively, showing a slight decline [14][19] - The main types of industrial explosives produced include gel emulsified explosives and porous ammonium oil explosives, which together account for over 80% of total production [16][19] Policy and Regulation - The government aims to enhance industry concentration and optimize product structure, with plans to form 3 to 5 large competitive enterprises by 2027 [2][48][44] - Policies are encouraging the development of mixed explosives and the reduction of traditional explosives [40][42] Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Guangdong Hongda, Yipuli, Guotai Group, Jiangnan Chemical, and Yahua Group, which are positioned well within the evolving market landscape [3]