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南方航空:全年业绩扭亏为盈,盈利能力持续改善-20260206
Guoxin Securities· 2026-02-06 05:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][14] Core Views - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit of 0.8 to 1 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 1.7 billion yuan in 2024. The non-recurring net profit is estimated to be between 130 to 190 million yuan, improving from a loss of 3.95 billion yuan in 2024 [1][8] - The domestic demand recovery is evident, with passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) expected to grow by 5.5%, 8.3%, and 6.6% respectively in 2025. The overall passenger load factor is projected to be 85.74%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][10] - The supply-demand dynamics in the industry are improving, with a forecasted 8.3% growth in RPK for China's civil aviation in 2025. The demand is expected to remain strong due to supportive domestic policies and a recovering macroeconomic environment, while supply growth will be limited due to manufacturing constraints [2][10] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to reach 16.91 billion yuan in 2025, up from 15.99 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.7% [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 0.89 billion yuan, with subsequent years showing significant growth: 5.55 billion yuan in 2026 and 8.395 billion yuan in 2027 [4][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from a loss of 1.80 yuan in 2023 to a profit of 0.05 yuan in 2025, and further to 0.31 yuan in 2026 [4][14]