气候变化对房地产影响

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墨尔本这个地区,一半的卖房人都亏钱了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 08:38
Core Insights - The Australian real estate market shows that while most homeowners profit from selling properties, a growing number of loss-making sales are concentrated in specific high-density areas [1][4]. Summary by Sections Profitability of Sales - According to Cotality's "Pain and Gain Report," the median profit for homeowners selling properties in the June 2024 quarter reached AUD 315,000, an increase from AUD 305,000 in the previous quarter and significantly above the inflation-adjusted average of AUD 250,000 over the past decade [2]. - Approximately 94.8% of sellers achieved profits, slightly down from 95% in the March quarter [3]. Loss-Making Sales Concentration - Loss-making sales are primarily associated with apartments, with one-third of these sales concentrated in five local government areas (LGAs): Parramatta, Sydney, Melbourne, Stonnington, and Port Phillip [4]. - In Melbourne, 47% of property sales were loss-making, followed by Stonnington at 35.5% [6][9][10]. - The report indicates that the high percentage of loss-making sales is linked to a surge in apartment construction during the 2010s, which did not consider long-term livability [7]. Market Dynamics and Trends - The demand for properties in these high-density areas has faced several shocks, particularly after the tightening of macroprudential policies in 2017, leading to a sharp decline in investment demand [8]. - The supply of apartments has remained high due to the development boom in the previous decade, contributing to the losses observed [13][14]. - In contrast, medium-sized cities like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth have shown strong performance in their apartment markets, with loss-making sales below 5% [17]. Regional Performance - Coastal areas have seen significant capital appreciation, driven by a recent trend towards lifestyle-oriented property purchases, with notable profits in regions like Kiama (AUD 758,000 median profit) and Byron Shire (AUD 718,000 median profit) [21]. - However, climate change risks, such as rising sea levels, may influence future buyer decisions, particularly in lower socio-economic areas that struggle to recover from disasters [19][20].