气候物理风险

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兴业研究:气候物理风险对我国商业银行信贷资产质量影响整体可控
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-22 02:27
值得注意的是,气候物理风险冲击将导致银行预期信用损失增加,但即便在重度压力情形下,贷款减值准备也都能覆盖预期违约损失。兴业团队认为,我国 商业银行具有较强的气候物理风险抵御能力;相对而言,部分股份制商业银行的风险承压能力更强。 该研究针对我国6家国有大型商业银行和12家股份制商业银行开展了气候物理风险压力测试。测试以不良贷款率为核心指标,通过计算预期信用损失指标判 断贷款减值准备能否覆盖预期违约损失,进而分析各家银行的气候物理风险抵御能力。研究聚焦未来我国温升和降水模式变化,建立由极端高温天气和极端 降水天气构成的气候物理风险指数来表征风险水平。 研究基于IPCC的RCP2.6情景和RCP8.5情景设计了轻度压力情景和重度压力情景,并采用Wilson的CPV模型量化评估气候物理风险下银行信贷资产质量的影 响。 研究主要结论显示,我国气候物理风险水平呈随时间升高的趋势,特别在重度压力情景下,2030年气候物理风险指数有明显跃升,风险升高的主要原因在于 极端高温天气出现频次的升高。银行潜在气候物理风险取决于贷款投放地气候物理风险状况及投放占比,国有大型商业银行和股份制商业银行呈现出不同的 气候物理风险程度。 气候 ...
上市公司气候冲击数据2011-2023年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 03:17
Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing frequency of extreme climate disasters and their negative impact on the real economy and financial markets, leading to lower consumption, investment, and potential economic recession [1] - The NGFS categorizes climate-related risks into physical risks and transition risks, with physical risks stemming from extreme environmental disasters that negatively affect microeconomic entities and overall economic stability [1] - Identifying and managing climate disasters is crucial for companies to maintain economic stability and promote high-quality economic development in the current era [1] Group 2 - The methodology for measuring the physical impact of climate on companies involves analyzing the frequency of climate-related terms in annual reports from 2011 to 2023 for Chinese A-share listed companies [2] - Data collection involved using web scraping tools to download annual reports, converting them to text format, and calculating the ratio of climate-related term frequency to total term frequency to derive a physical impact indicator [2][3] - The data includes stock codes, years, climate physical impact term frequency, total term frequency, and climate physical impact variables in Excel format [3] Group 3 - Existing research on climate physical impacts focuses on several areas, including the effects on corporate operations, where climate disasters disrupt normal production and reduce profitability, leading to increased default risk [5] - Climate physical impacts also affect capital markets, as investors may overestimate risks associated with environmental disasters, leading to lower asset valuations [5] - The relationship between climate physical risks and financial risks is significant, as physical impacts can elevate default risks for companies, influenced by their cost transfer capabilities and information disclosure quality [6] Group 4 - The connection between physical risks and transition risks is emphasized, as companies' efforts to transition to low-carbon operations can influence the effects of climate physical impacts [6] - Climate risks can transmit to the financial system, increasing risks for banks and affecting asset quality and risk levels within financial institutions [7]