1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As continuously surging varieties adjusted intraday, market divergence may have started to emerge, and aluminum prices turned down from high levels. On the 23rd, SHFE aluminum 2509 fell 0.34% to 20,790, the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,190 to 691,200 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium remained flat at 25; the AD - AL negative spread was reported at - 520. Alumina prices retreated from high levels, with a decline of 2.81%. The proportion of old - fashioned production capacity in the alumina industry is relatively low, and it may not benefit under current policies. Be vigilant against the callback risk after the sentiment fades. [8] - On the electrolytic aluminum side, it is still in the traditional off - season. The domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side remains sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector is still light during the off - season. With the high absolute price of aluminum, the negative feedback effect on terminal consumption is expected to appear again. In terms of profits, although the alumina futures price has soared, the spot price has followed up only limitedly. The average profit of aluminum smelting is still 4,100 yuan/ton, at a high level. [8] - In general, the supply and demand of aluminum tend to weaken in the off - season atmosphere. In the short term, it is supported by policy expectations and rises with the general increase of the sector, but the upside space is also temporarily difficult to open. Continue to pay attention to the performance of the resistance level near the previous high. [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum prices turned down from high levels. On the 23rd, SHFE aluminum 2509 fell 0.34% to 20,790, the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,190 to 691,200 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium remained flat at 25; the AD - AL negative spread was reported at - 520. Alumina prices retreated from high levels, with a decline of 2.81%. [8] - The electrolytic aluminum market is in the off - season, with high operating capacity, sluggish demand, and light operating rate in the processing sector. The high price of aluminum may have a negative impact on terminal consumption. The average profit of aluminum smelting is 4,100 yuan/ton. [8] - The supply and demand of aluminum are weak in the off - season. It is supported by policy expectations in the short term, but the upside space is limited. Pay attention to the resistance level near the previous high. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, the domestic primary aluminum import volume was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic primary aluminum import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, the domestic primary aluminum export volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%; from January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, the domestic primary aluminum net import was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic primary aluminum net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. [9][10] - **Primary Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changed slightly. Due to the start of the second - phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the original plant was required to reduce production and restart the new plant after passing the acceptance. The electrolytic aluminum production decreased slightly month - on - month. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, the second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the industry operating rate rebounded. [10] - **Guinea's Mining Policy**: On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced the revocation of the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. After verification by SMM, the revoked bauxite enterprises all have long - term idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mining rights were taken back by the state free of charge, and this action was part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management. [10] - **Restart of Alcoa's Spanish Smelter**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to be restarted by mid - 2026, and the postponement is expected to cause a loss of up to $110 million. Due to high electricity prices, the plant's production decreased in 2021. The restart plan was postponed due to a national power outage in Spain on April 28. After the power outage, the joint - venture company suspended the resumption of work until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and measures to prevent similar events. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint - venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant had been restarted. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026. [10]